EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 3

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-10-06 19:29:32

Well, it was bound to happen, this Saturday slate is the worst EPL slate so far this season. We are faced with the selection of our team off of just five matches and only one team with super expensive options. The ultimate result of this is that we should be able to build our lineups quite easily.

The biggest decision we have to make is whether to take Lukaku or not and how many Man U players do we take on our teams? Personally, this is a week where taking Lukaku and filling high floor players around him is probably the right way to go. This Grind Down should help you build your lineups and identify the proper players to use in your teams.

Watford vs Brighton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Watford						Brighton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.952						4.529
				D W						L L
				1-1-0						0-0-2
14.00	5.50	10.00	8.50	18.00	14.50	5.50	2.00	14.00	6.50	12.50	23.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney, Gray		Holebas		Watson, Capoue, Holebas		Murray, Hemed		Knockaert, Gross, Stephens, Skalak, March		Knockaert, Gross, Stephens, Skalak, March, Dunk, Bruno, Kayal, Murphy

Watford are currently on a good run to start the Premier League having extracted a draw from Liverpool (3-3) and achieved a rather easy win against Bournemouth at home (2-0) in their last match. They have played very well in this young season so far and for their efforts, their week 3 opponent is newly promoted and goalless Brighton. Brighton have had a tough first couple of matches hosting Manchester City and then traveling to Leicester. Two teams that are miles ahead of them, but it does speak volumes to how far they are from really competing in the premier league how easy it was for those two teams to dispatch of them. The two were in action in the midweek fixtures in the EFL cup with Watford losing on a last second goal against Championship side Bristol City, while Brighton came out ahead against League 2 side Barnet. Watford did end up losing one of their main players we would consider for DFS in Jose Holebas who was sent off with two yellows and will now be forced to sit out this match. Holebas was one of the main corner kick takers as well as crossers on the team. Amrabat is the most likely beneficiary from this change.

The oddsmakers have Watford as a comfortable home favorite in this one, and conventional wisdom will agree with that assessment. The most likely game flow is Watford controlling the midfield with a push for an early goal that will come in sometime towards the end of the first half. Brighton will have spells of possession but will likely fail to threaten except on set pieces or through a counter attack. Brighton still haven’t scored a goal this season, but I believe it’s coming as this is the first match for them that isn’t against a team that has won the Premier League this decade.

Watford Top Plays

Nordin Amrabat, $5,500 FD, $4,700 DK – Amrabat might be picking up the cross slack that will exist from the lack of Holebas in this match and that should only improve his potential. He’s cheap and priced less than Richarlison at just $4,700. I like Amrabat this week for all formats and the opponent makes thiings easy to select him if you decide to go that route in your lineups.

Richarlison, $7,500 FD, $5,000 DK – I wrote up Richarlison last week and he rewarded me with a goal, and for that I’m writing him up again. He’s got a great matchup this week with Brighton coming to down and that makes Richarlison an easy play for me. His price did go up to $5K from $3.9K and that will make it more interesting to select him, but he’s got a safe floor of probably 6-10 points which is good enough for cash games and his ceiling is 20+ points, which is great for GPPs.

Watford Secondary Plays

Andre Gray, $6,500 FD, $5,700 DK – He’s a GPP option here after scoring 2.3 fantasy points last week and his price going up because of the easy matchup. I don’t expect Gray to be highly owned, but I do think he has a good chance at scoring a goal here and that’s why he’s on my radar for tournaments if I need somebody in that price range.

Brighton Top Plays

Pascal Groß, $6,500 FD, $3,200 DK – It’s either Gross or Knockaert starting here and whichever one gets the nod from me for Brighton. But at $3,200 Gross is too tough to ignore especially as a starting playmaking player on any team.

Brighton Secondary Plays

Lewis Dunk, $6,000 FD, $2,800 DK – Dunk is a good option on FanDuel since he’s going to be in line for plenty of defensive action all season. He did get 7 clearances and 3 interceptions in his first game of the season against Manchester City despite scoring an own goal. He’s actually a potential goal scoring center back in the right situation so I wouldn’t sleep on him there either. On DK he makes a decent punt GPP play if you want to load up on 4 Manchester United players.

Huddersfield vs Southampton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Huddersfield						Southampton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				4.05						2.08
				W W						D W
				2-0-0						1-1-0
8.00	4.50	14.00	9.50	17.00	20.50	21.50	3.50	10.00	8.00	30.50	12.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Löwe, Mooy		Mooy, Ince, Wells, Löwe		Löwe, Mooy, Ince, Hefele		Austin, Tadic, Gabbiadini, Bertrand, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Yoshida		Ward-Prowse, Tadic, Davis, Bertrand

Huddersfield are the talk of the town so far with two wins in two tries to start off the season as they get another home match against a Southampton side that likes to take lots of shots but doesn’t always make them. In fact, through the first two matches this season, they’ve taken 43 shots (second only to Arsenal) and have only three goals to show for it. Their visit to Huddersfield should give them another chance at 15+ shots in this game, but the chances of them scoring goals remains small considering how well Huddersfield have defended led by their goalkeeper Jonas Lossl (more on him later)

Neither team should have any fitness complaints pop up from last week as both teams should feature similar lineups that they tossed out last weekend. Southampton did manage to lose in the EFL cup after rotating a few players out for rest, they lost 2-0 to Wolverhampton. Meanwhile, Huddersfield managed to successfully rotate their squad and still emerge victorious in their midweek fixtures. This would make the Saints desperate to get a win and get the foul taste of defeat out of their mouths, though I suspect that this will be a tough match for both teams and may not feature a lot of fantasy upside.

Huddersfield Top Plays

Jonas Lossl, $4,500 FD, $4,400 DK – I am likely taking Lossl in every single lineup. There has been many talk about goalkeepers and how they are often a luckbox of variable results. I disagree with the general sentiment that you can’t predict goalkeepers. I believe you can predict them as best as you can predict forwards. Goalkeepers really depend on the supply of shots on target and saves they can make. Lossl already proved that he can make saves, and thus when the supply is there, he’s going to be worth owning, especially at home. It seems you can use a simple method to select the goalkeeper who will have the supply necessary for a solid score. Home underdog. In his first two games Lossl made 9 saves and has 2 wins and 2 clean sheets. I doubt he repeats that feat again but he can probably end up with 5-7 saves and concede a goal or two and still put up 8-14 points for $4,400 on DK and you’ll be very happy with that output from a keeper. The reason I’m confident in his shots on target is the opponent. Southampton love taking shots on target and have taken 6 per game so far this season, the only teams ahead of them are Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United. Lossl will get his supply of shots, and while the possibility of Southampton laying out the goals against him is there, it is a slim chance, making Lossl the clear #1 option at goalkeeper this slate.

Christopher Schindler, $4,500 FD, $3,200 DK – Huddersfield are expected to concede plenty of possession, which bodes very well for defensive midfielders and center backs for this game. On FD especially moreso than DK, though, Schindler did get 4 tackles and 5 interceptions last match on his way to 10.5 points on DK. He’s priced at just $3,200 on DK and $4,500 on FD making him a very appealing option on both sites if you really need a cheap defender.

Huddersfield Secondary Plays

Aaron Mooy, $10,000 FD, $6,500 DK – I considered Mounie in this spot after scoring 2 goals opening weekend, Mounie ended last weekend with 1.5 fantasy points and disappointing all his fantasy owners. Despite this, his price tag went up by $100 on DK. His teammate Aaron Mooy has a goal and assist and has the higher floor along with a ceiling of goals and assists for this team. He recorded 12 crosses in his last two matches and could end up posing problem for Southampton if they’re not careful marking him.

Southampton Top Plays

James Ward-Prowse, $6,500 FD, $6,000 DK -Ward-Prowse has 14 crosses so far this season off two matches and his cross per minute rate is through the roof. He is a dynamo for this team’s offense and can get them going even if he doesn’t score a lot of goals. He did take 4 shots in his first match this season, so the goal potential is there. He’s also on free kicks making him a potential for cash game plays as well.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Dusan Tadic, $8,500 FD, $7,600 DK – I can never write Tadic up correctly. He is the perpetual disappointment, last week he was at -2 points up until the end of the first half when he scored a penalty. Of course, in the second half, Southampton earned another penalty and Chaz Austin took the shot, making it difficult to even count on his penalty production long term if Austin moves into the starting lineup eventually. He’s a tournament play because you’ll have the salary to pay for him this week, but really, unless you’re building multiple lineups, you’re better off taking other players from Southampton like Gabbiadini, Redmond or Austin (if he starts.)

P.S. Because I said to not take him, he’s going to score 2 goals this week… just you watch.

Newcastle United vs West Ham

Sh/Gm	Shots A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Newcastle United			West Ham
		Vegas Odds					Vegas Odds
		2.389					3.21
							L L
		#N/A					0-0-2
			12.50	4.50	17.50	10.00	15.50	23.00
Penalties	Direct Free Kicks	Corners & Indirect Free Kicks	Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
			Noble, Lanzini, Carroll, Arnautovic		Noble, Arnautovic, Lanzini, Snodgrass, Cresswell		Lanzini, Noble, Arnautovic, Snodgrass, Cresswell

Newcastle and West Ham have both lost their first two matches albeit under different circumstances. Newcastle opened the season against Tottenham, and could be excused that loss, while they continued on with a loss on the road against Huddersfield in which they looked less than deserving of being in the Premier League. Their opponents have also had a tough time this season as well. West Ham have failed to win either of their matches so far with a 4-0 loss opening weekend to Manchester United and a 3-2 loss to Southampton on the road last weekend. The team will also be without summer signing Marko Arnautovic after Arnie earned himself an unnecessary red card last weekend against the Saints.

The oddsmakers believe this will be a close one with the road team a slight favorite. Perhaps this is due to lack of belief in West Ham’s abilities. However, West Ham should have some opportunities however. Chicharito has been good for them, the team relies on him to be creative in the attack just outside the box, as well as take it wide and deliver crosses in to his teammates. In fact, West Ham took 9 headers last match, and Antonio may be one of the best heading players in the Premier League when he’s on. At the same time, West Ham haven’t been very successful defensively as they’ve allowed 7 goals so far in just their first two matches. The most telling stat however is the number of shots that West Ham have conceded in the box, where they are allowing 10 shots per game to their opponents. And while this is a direct result of playing Manchester United last match, West Ham should have still done better.

Newcastle United Top Plays

Matt Ritchie, $7,000 FD, $6,200 DK – I don’t trust anybody from Newcastle, but if I had to pick one person from this match, it would be Ritchie. Ritchie takes free kicks and corners for this team and likely has the highest floor of anybody on the roster. Of course, taking Ritchie at his price tag might be a problem as there are other options at that price point that are worth the selection over him. Nevertheless, if you are looking for a solid floor player with some limited upside for cash games, you could select Ritchie this week, especially since he’s at home.

Robert Elliot, $4,500 FD, $4,900 DK -Elliot is a home keeper that is an underdog, and that makes him selectable. His range goes from -2 to +20 depending on how the game goes. That said, I think he ends up between 5 and 10 points off of saves alone in a 1-0 loss.

Newcastle United Secondary Plays

Joselu, $5,000 FD, $5,000 DK – If Joselu starts for Newcastle then he’s going to be worth the selection. Last week despite the loss and not scoring a goal, Joselu ended up with 22.25 FD points and 6 points on DK off of 4 shots, all on target. He did receive a yellow card off a single foul committed, but he only played 38 minutes. With Gayle suffering from a potential injury that could sit him out of the weekend matches, Joselu has a chance to shine here and score his first goal for Newcastle this season.

West Ham Top Plays

Michail Antonio, $8,500 FD, $6,700 DK – Antonio is one of those border line cash game plays that also has the potential to score goals. He’s a great header for the ball and has had runs in the past where he’s made lots of fantasy noise. Of course, those were back when West Ham still had Payet. Now with Chicharito, and with the return of Lanzini, it does take away the appeal of Antonio a little, but I think this week he’s still a good cash play and even a GPP play in some cases. He’s going against a weak team in Newcastle.

Javier Hernandez, $9,500 FD, $7,000 DK – Chicharito scored two goals last week, but buyer beware. They were both rebounds and I wouldn’t count on those too often. What he did do however is record 5 crosses and draw 4 fouls, these are things that he can do well. I expect him to continue that ability and trend towards being a higher floor player with peripherals in matchups that favor West Ham. He’s also got the tournament upside where he can score 2-3 goals at any given time.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Aaron Cresswell, $5,000 FD, $3,900 DK – Cresswell is another crosser/corner kick taker for this team and he’s been cheap as well at just $3,900 he could be a beneficial defender to add to your roster to fill out your team. He isn’t highly ranked for me however, as I wouldn’t select him over the likes of Blind, Valencia, Soares, Van Aanholt or Bertrand. But he’s a play to consider if you need a cheaper defender at that price range.

Crystal Palace vs Swansea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Crystal Palace						Swansea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.961						4.48
				L L						D L
				0-0-2						0-1-1
9.00	2.50	16.00	9.50	16.50	18.00	4.50	0.50	23.00	13.00	15.00	27.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Milivojevic, Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham		Milivojevic, Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt		Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt		Abraham		Carroll		Carroll, Routledge

The next match on the docket pits Crystal Palace with Swansea. Swansea finally pulled the plug on the Gylfi Sigurdsson deal that sends him to Everton in exchange for a Samsonite full of hundred dollar bills. It remains to be seen what they do with their new windfall, but for now, the team is forced to rely on Tom Carroll and Leroy Fer as their most creative midfielders. The team has played two matches so far and in their first match they came away with a 0-0 draw with Southampton on the road in what could only be considered a positive result. In their second matchup, they faced up against the mighty Manchester United, and while the goals came late for United (4-0 win), Swansea didn’t really threaten the goal with none of their shots hitting the target, and one Tammy Abraham shot coming close and hitting the woodwork.

The home team in this matchup is the favorite, despite not scoring a goal this season yet (same with the Swans), but Palace have the better pedigree in their lineup. Of course, the last time Palace played at home they lost to newly promoted Huddersfield 3-0 in a display that was both shocking and indicative of where Palace are as a team entering the new season. This match shouldn’t be very good from a technical side, and will probably not have viewers flocking to watch it, but you should expect one (if not both) of these teams to find the net for the first time this season in this one.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Patrick Van Aanholt, $6,000 FD, $5,300 DK – He’s one of the few top defenders on the board and will probably be one of 2-3 players on the slate with double digit crosses (at best!). PVA is a talented offensive player and while he’s expensive for a defender, if you choose to fade Lukaku (more on him later) you should be able to roster him with ease as there is plenty of value in other places.

Andros Townsend, $6,000 FD, $7,800 DK – Without Zaha, Townsend becomes a player to consider on the wings for Palace. If they continue with the same style of play of spreading the ball out wide and crossing into a waiting Christian Benteke then Townsend-Benteke or Puncheon-Benteke is a good GPP combination that you can take advantage of on Saturday.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Christian Benteke, $7,500 FD, $7,500 DK – He’s going to get on one of these crosses eventually. Either from Puncheon or Townsend. He failed to score in his first two matches and has had a rough time in front of goal to start the season, but he’s a good forward who can score goals in a slate without a lot of good forwards who can score goals. The opportunity is there for him against this Swansea team especially at home.

Swansea Top Plays

Tammy Abraham, $6,500 FD, $4,100 DK – If Abraham starts again, he should be one of the cheapest forward options over on DraftKings. The only risk for him starting is Llorente who probably isn’t ready to start matches yet, and as long as the team still goes with a 2 attacking forwards formation then he’ll partner up front with Ayew. Abraham is a Chelsea player who has been loaned out a few times and is keen to prove to the boss at Stamford Bridge that he’s worth the $50K per week contract he signed this summer. Last season he scored 26 goals in 48 matches with Bristol City and while he won’t reach those heights in the Premier League this season, I expect that he’ll have some positive days where he scores goals. As it stands, his price tag of $4.1K on DK is much too cheap for his potential, especially against Palace who have a history of bad performances on the defensive side dating back to last season.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Tom Carroll, $7,500 FD, $3,700 DK – Whether it’s Fer or Caroll, somebody will be tempted to take somebody from Swansea this slate, and for good reason. The players will try to go for their first goal of the season and maybe their first win. Doing so on the road further helps their position going forward in the relegation battle. What Fer provides is an advanced midfield player that would be part of the attack, and I wouldn’t fault you for taking him if you think that Palace are as bad as Swansea. However, I wouldn’t go that direction personally, and would instead try to get Carroll in a team if I’m building multiple lineups. Carroll provides crosses and set pieces and even reached 10 fantasy points last weekend against United. At a price point of $3,700 he’s a great buy at that price, though you don’t really need to go down to his price point to fill out a solid lineup.

Manchester United vs Leicester

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Manchester United						Leicester
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.33						11.31
				W W						L W
				2-0-0						1-0-1
19.00	6.50	7.00	4.50	20.00	18.00	10.00	3.50	16.00	8.00	18.50	18.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
						Mahrez, Slimani, Vardy, Ulloa		Mahrez, Fuchs, Drinkwater, Albrighton, Gray		Mahrez, Albrighton, Fuchs, , Drinkwater, James, Gray

The final match of the day is Manchester United hosting Leicester City. Leicester lost their first match to Arsenal after a solid display and ended losing the decision 4-3. They rebounded from that disappointment with a 2-0 comfortable win against Brighton the following week. They now head to Old Trafford where they take on Manchester United and their unblemished record where they scored 8 goals and conceded none. United had a newsworthy Thursday where they found out who their opponents in the Champions League group stages will be (Benfica, Basel and CSKA Moscow), as well as resigning of last year’s top scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This match is probably going to feature the highest ownership in all of Saturday’s games, and for good reason. United are a solid outfit and have played the best of ANY team to start the season. Leicester have also looked pretty solid and could contend with the Red Devils. I expect the match to be a good one. United are likely to try to control the flow and the midfield, while Leicester will try to rely on their counter attacks and try to catch United by surprise to come away with a result from this one.

Manchester United Top Plays

Henrikh Mkhitaryan, $10,500 FD, $8,600 DK – When thinking about who the second best fantasy option on United would be, Mkhitaryan is the one who stands out. In two matches he has 4 assists for the Red Devils and has really shown the form that brought him to the Premier League after thriving in the Bundesliga two seasons ago. He seems to have really figured out the English game and with Lukaku as a partner up front, he’s proving that the pair will be close to unstoppable this season.

Romelu Lukaku, $12,000 FD, $11,200 DK – He’s likely to be close to 80% owned in most competitions and I can’t fathom building a cash lineup without him in it. Lukaku has really hit the ground running in his new Manchester United uniform and he’s scored goals in his last two matches in the EPL (3 goals off 8 shots). And while I don’t believe he’ll continue scoring goals indefinitely, this matchup won’t be the one that slows him down, at home. I feel even more confident in his selection as a block this week as there aren’t a lot of other high salary options you can choose from, and fading Lukaku may end up being the wrong move 9 times out of 10 if the rest of the field has him.

Manchester United Secondary Plays

Daley Blind, $6,500 FD, $5,800 DK – Blind is on corners and with United being very strong in the midfield defensively, he’s been given the freedom to roam attackingly and has taken 13 crosses so far. With the team continuing their favorite status, I don’t think he’ll need to sit back defensively much in this game as Leicester are known to let the opponent take possession, but I do temper my excitement about him a little as he may be hesitant to venture forward too much as Riyad Mahrez plays on his same side and he’d be the key counter attacking player for the Foxes. Blind may still end up being very highly owned because this is Manchester United, but I don’t think it would be wrong to pass on him this week and go with cheaper options.

*Marcus Rashford, $8,500 FD, $8,100 DK*Rashford is my GPP pick in this one. Everybody will have Lukaku, Micky, and maybe even Pogba. Few will look to Marcus Rashford, who still hasn’t scored this season and has been looking over his shoulder at Martial who has come in for Rashford twice now and scored both times. Not to mention that with resigning Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Rashford looks poised to lose his job eventually when Zlatan is fit enough to come back. This is why Rashford may be looking at this opportunity as his last good chance to start and score a goal. The underlying numbers do support his inclusion as well, Prior to his substitution off the field, he had a total of 8 shots, 3 on target, 12 touches inside the box and was very active on the left hand side in both matches. If he gets one more chance to prove himself, look for him to be aggressive in looking for a goal, and if he’s successful, you might end up with a low ownership United forward who scores one for you.

Leicester Top Plays

Riyad Mahrez, $9,000 FD, $7,400 DK – I have never been the biggest fan of Mahrez from a DFS standpoint. Too many times he ends up being a ‘lots of action, not a lot of stats’ guy. There were times last season when Mahrez would have the best matchups and end up with 6 DK points, and without a goal or penalty kick, he rarely did much to warrant his usual high price tag. This season is a little bit different as he’s started off taking corners and free kicks and that seems to have improved his floor significantly. Even without any goals, he’s recorded 20 and 16 fantasy points in his first two matches, and that is enough for me to consider, but not for cash games, rather a tournament play only.

*Harry Maguire, $7,500 FD, $3,000 DK*On FanDuel, one of the better cash play defenders is always a central defender against a high octane offense. In this case, Harry Maguire fits the bill and allows you to get double exposure to this match from both sides. Maguire will end up with close to 10 clearances and 2-3 tackles and maybe 2-3 interceptions. I don’t expect him to end up with the clean sheet though, and the chances of a goal or assist from him (or even shots or chances created) are slim to none, so don’t count on those either). He’s priced high on FanDuel but you can probably fit him in with some of the other value plays throughout this article.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Jamie Vardy, $8,000 FD, $6,600 DK – Vardy is a secondary play for me because of his dependence on goals and the fact that against a team like Brighton he only managed a single shot and ended with just five DK points. The floor on Vardy is real low but I think he ends up with plenty of goals this season and he’s on 2 already after two weeks. A Man U matchup isn’t the best, but he’s got the talent to stun them with an early goal if things line up perfectly.