EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 30
Welcome back for Gameweek 30. The EPL DFS season trudges on and this Saturday slate is actually one of the tougher slates I’ve had to deal with in a while. We have just one of the top six teams in play this week in Chelsea, and they are playing a late game. There is lots to take into account for that game and a lot of lineup decisions that could make or break your week. In addition to that, there is only one team that is an outright favorite, again Chelsea. And just one team that is a home underdog (West Brom vs Leicester, but we’ll talk about them in a bit). We are missing some really fun games like Manchester United and Liverpool and Arsenal vs Watford (which surprisingly is a match that Burnley will be very keen to watch for).
The contests on DK and FD are interesting. FD has their usual set of games, though they seem a bit on the low side money wise compared to DK. On the other hand, DK is starting to up the prizes with the World Cup less than 100 days away. They are offering three contests with $10K+ prize pools, which makes me really wish that Alabama would go ahead and pass a DFS bill before the world cup as it’s going to be FUN!
So without further delay. Let’s talk about the contests coming up on Saturday.
Everton vs Brighton
These two teams are in positions they didn’t expect themselves to be in before the season. Everton thought they would be challenging for a Europe spot this term but instead find themselves in 11th place with a goal differential of -16 goals. They are actually closer to relegation (+7 points) than they are to European soccer next season (-11 points). Everton did undergo a major transformation going into this season. They let Lukaku go and replaced him with an aging Rooney. They used some of that money to get Gylfi Sigurdsson, but the Icelandic sensation has failed to produce in the same fashion he had over at Swansea. The team also added Tosun and Theo Walcott in January. The team is still under the helm of Sam Allardyce, who has struggled with his team so far this season after 15 games as the manager they have managed just 19 points in that tenure.
This week they face off against a Brighton squad that is ahead of them on the table, and one that nobody thought would be this close to the top half of the league standings in mid-March. Brighton’s achievements this season are a result of their home record where they’ve gotten point returns in 12 of their 15 matches so far and have 13 points in their last six home matches. Unfortunately, they are not playing at home this week and are instead on the road at Goodison Park.
On the road, Brighton are not as good. They’ve only scored 7 goals away from home (joint worst in the league) and have conceded 17 (in 14 matches). This tells me that matches they are involved in tend to be low scoring as they average less than 2 goals a game making it very not-DFS friendly.
So what options to consider here?
On DraftKings, Cenk Tosun is priced at $6,300 for Everton and would be a possibility especially at home. He’s goal dependent and just scored his first Premier League goal last week. He’s a tournament only option for Everton. Wayne Rooney has the same odds to score as Tosun, and he’s almost as cheap at $6,500 on DK.
Perhaps one of my favorite tournament choices on the week, however, is taking an offensive player from Brighton. Everton have failed to keep a clean sheet since Boxing day (home and away) that is 10 matches in all competitions. This puts players such as Glenn Murray ($6,100 DK, $9,500 FD) in play as a tournament option. If you want to pair him up with somebody in some lineups, then Pascal Gross is the option to consider. Normally, he’s a better cash game option, but on the road, he’s a tournament only play. He’s slightly more expensive at $7.3K on DK and $8.5K on FD.
For Cash games, I would consider either Theo Walcott or Gylfi Sigurdsson, with Walcott being the better option as he carries some more upside. The former Arsenal player is the lead shot taker for Everton since his arrival and routinely gets more touches in the final third than most other players on the right side of the pitch. Sigurdsson ends up sharing a lot of the same space as Rooney and even Tosun if he drifts back a bit, making Walcott the better option.
That said, I would probably look elsewhere for cash game options as I don’t think this is a high scoring match and both teams will probably display some less-than-good football this weekend.
Huddersfield vs Swansea
The oddsmakers have Huddersfield as a slight favorite in this fixture as they take on the Swans at home. Neither of these teams is a goal scoring machine however as both of them have scored just 25 goals (each) this entire season. The interesting tidbit is that both of them have recent 4-1 wins over similar opposition. Both did it at home, Huddersfield against Bournemouth and Swansea against West Ham. The odds of another 4 goal explosion are minimal to be fair, but in this case, we would have to think that something is worth investigating at home for these teams.
Let’s start with Huddersfield, who are in fact at home this week, they’ve scored 15 of their 25 goals at home in just 14 matches (just a hair above a goal a game), However, despite their last home game being the one against Bournemouth where they scored 4, they are last in the league in goal attempts at home (135), they are bottom five in crosses (290), and last in chances created (90), to make matters worse, they are also bottom four in touches in the final third. So their home numbers aren’t very inspiring.
There is a bit of hope however as they face Swansea who are either last or second to last in all the aforementioned categories when looking at away stats.
The last two paragraphs can easily be summarized as “this matchup sucks” and we would all do better to just stay away from it for our own sake.
However, there is something to be said for teams fighting for their lives to stay in the premier league. This match carries special importance for both teams as the result will go a long way towards determining if they get closer to safety, or keep the battle going for the remainder of the season. A win here for either team would put them 6 points ahead of the drop zone.
So where do we look?
If goals are scored, the most likely goal scorer for Huddersfield is Steve Mounie, who’s priced at $5,500 on DK, and $7000 on FD. Next options are Rajiv Van La Parra and Aaron Mooy who is probably returning from injury. Both options are less than ideal, but in tournaments, they would be low owned and likely difference makers in one of the big competitions this weekend.
As for Swansea, Jordan Ayew has been rock solid the second half of the season and has performed very well for the Swans. He would be my only player to seriously consider for the Swans, and to a lesser extent I’d look at Ki Sung-Yueng.
Newcastle vs Southampton
It happens twice a season where I’m faced with the worst match possible. Southampton have long been a DFS nightmare with their lack of consistent production and spread out touches. Newcastle have emerged as my personal nightmare as I always seem to underestimate how bad they can be, or they surprise me when I finally admit to them being bad and avoid them altogether.
Both these teams have actually been bad this season with both of them on the verge of falling into the drop zone at just 1 and 2 points away from 18th place respectively. Newcastle being the home team will look to take advantage here and try to secure a tough 3 points that pushes them further away and creates some separation from their opponents.
I do think that Southampton have the most fantasy-friendly options from this matchup. We have players like Redmond, Bertrand and JWP (Ward-Prowse) who can all put up good numbers. Bertrand’s price has gone up a bit and his value heavily depends on who else starts. Here’s the way I’d rank them: John Ward-Prowse, Bertrand, Redmond. If JWP doesn’t start then history shows us that Bertrand gets his production almost doubled which makes him as easy as a play as there is in both cash and tournaments. If all three start then Ward Prowse is an easy play to consider. If neither of the first two start then Redmond is a must play. I’d venture that Redmond is a must play if JWP alone doesn’t start.
I don’t think that Southampton is such a great DFS play, but they have some semblance of normalcy if you can predict their starting lineup. That said, I suck at predicting their starting lineup, but you at least have to have your contingencies.
This is also a week where they can easily disappoint everybody and so you should keep them at very low ownership and not extend beyond your means to get some SOT players as they can easily fail.
If you want to get something out of Newcastle, maybe consider Dwight Gayle who is at home and has the best odds to score on Bet365.com. Also note that the odds for either team to score are relatively low and for good reason so, again, don’t go out of your way to roster players from this game hoping for goals.
So, if you don’t think goals will come by easy, then maybe goalkeepers are in play in this slate as Newcastle are at home, I’d go with their keeper and Martin Dubravka ($4,800 DK, $5,000 FD) is decently priced and as good an option as any in the crapshoot that is goalkeeper.
West Brom vs Leicester
West Brom has been terrible so far this season and it looks to continue. It’s easy to say now that they are likely to finish the season at the bottom of the table. They have failed to win their last 10 matches and will likely stretch that streak to 11 this week as they host Leicester.
Riyad Mahrez has been excellent in the last bit for the Foxes. He’s topped double-digit DK points in his last five starts and his sole game in his last six where he didn’t exceed double digits was against Manchester City, and you can hardly hold that against him. His last two contests saw him get 10 and 14 crosses which was great for his DFS total. I expect him to approach that level this week, making him one of the first pieces I’d be targeting in cash and tournaments. Mahrez is rather expensive however at $9.6K on DK and $10.5K on FD and so he’ll cost you a bit, but we found some value in our previous matchups so we can afford to splurge a bit on Mahrez who should be one of the higher owner players outside of the Chelsea match.
Vardy is another player to consider from this game as he can score goals in any situation and has scored 4 goals in his last six games (despite not scoring in his last two), I think he can get back to scoring this week as he faces a weak West Brom defense that doesn’t know what it’s doing. As West Brom have allowed three goals in three of their last five matches I think there is reason to believe they will allow more than one to this Leicester side that has failed to score multiple goals in recent weeks but should turn it around this time.
Others to consider from this match include Gray, who can take some crosses or corners. Kelechi Iheanacho can also provide some returns in attack if he gets the start and gets a shot or two on goal.
You could consider some West Brom plays such as Rondon or Jay Rodriguez who can both score goals and are better players than their season would indicate.
Chris Brunt is also a potential cash game option especially at home where he can cross the ball and get more touches, especially against a Leicester team that still likes to give up possession. (though West Brom is worst in the league at possession both home and away). Brunt’s price is too high for a player on a team that should struggle.
West Ham vs Burnley
Burnley showed some mettle last match where they conceded against Everton inside of 20 minutes and then didn’t let up until they came away with a 2-1 result. The main catalyst in that match was Johann Berg-Gudmundsson who recorded 18 crosses and an assist. He finished with 25 DK points and 24 FD points (4 chances created over there) He’s also managed double-digit points in five of his last six matches and has been one of Burnley’s best players in their surprise push to 7th in the Premier League table this season.
Burnley also have done well with their other player options as Ashley Barnes has had good returns on the season and Chris Wood came off the bench to score the game winner last week.
West Ham have gone the opposite direction, they have capable players like Arnautovic and Chicharito, but they’ve failed to make the mark the fans expected. They lost last weekend to Swansea 4-1 and will try to erase that terrible loss this week as they host Burnley. Burnley have been really good, however, but their performances have dipped on the road where they have failed to win in their last seven matches.
For West Ham, there are a couple of players to consider, if Cresswell gets the start as a wing/full back then he would get plenty of crosses and might be cheap enough to consider. If he does not then stay away from him as a center back. Arnie and Chicharito (Javier Hernandez) can both produce some goals especially if paired with Michail Antonio. Lanzini is a capable player who can create chances for his team as he has the skill set for an advanced midfielder.
Adrian is a good option in goal as he’s cheap and at home ($5.1K on DK and $4.5K on FD) he should get some save opportunities and has a decent chance at a clean sheet or win (or both if it works out)
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Chelsea have had the toughest two weeks of any club in Europe. They played Barcelona in the Champions League two weeks ago, then they had back to back EPL matches with Manchester United followed by Manchester City. They came out of that mess with just a home draw against the Spanish giants despite being the better side for much of the 90 minutes. They failed to impress against City last weekend and Conte received some harsh criticism for his lineup selection. The team has now fallen out of the Champions League spot in the table and are headed to the Camp Nou this week for the return leg against Barcelona where they HAVE to get a result in order to avoid being out of the Champions League altogether next season.
Crystal Palace do offer Chelsea a good opportunity to get some confidence prior to the trip to Spain, Especially after Chelsea helped Palace break out of their early-season malaise when Palace beat Chelsea at home 2-1 in the first leg of this fixture back in October. Chelsea are looking for payback.
I do think that Chelsea are going to sit some players out here, or they are at least going to pull some players early. Willian did great against Barcelona last time out, so he might be saved for that matchup once more. Morata or Giroud didn’t get the start last time out and Morata didn’t come in until the 90th minute. I expect that he’ll get the start Saturday.
The big takeaways for cash in this game are Cesc Fabregas who can provide some solid contribution in just 60 minutes. I would also look for Pedro and/or Willian. Willian has been hot lately and Pedro might want to prove himself after a very lackluster performance against City last weekend. Hazard is always an option, but he’s just tournament for me as I don’t know the truth behind how he feels about Conte.
Overall, I can see this game being underowned despite Chelsea being the heaviest favorite. There is concern about whether they’ll be risking much with Barcelona in just a couple of days, for cash Cesc or Willian are probably my go tos with Hazard, Morata/Giroud or Pedro for tournaments in that order.
As for Crystal Palace, they did great against Manchester United just last weekend and could be in line for another solid performance against Chelsea Saturday. Benteke, Van Aanholt and Townsend all excelled. Jeffrey Schlupp played further forward than I expected and that helped his value a lot. Townsend was a good cash option at home, but in this week’s road matchup at Stamford Bridge, I would look closer to tournament for the Palace options.