EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 33
We have a five match slate on Saturday with half the EPL teams on display. Among them is just one of the top six teams, Liverpool, as they play the late game where they host Bournemouth. The other games include some interesting matchups that have massive implications for the relegation battle. Right now with just six matches to go for most teams, only 10 points separate 10th place from the drop zone. Six of the ten teams in play Saturday are in that range and not all of them will come away with wins, meaning that things will get tighter among those hoping to remain in the top flight another season.
This week with just five matches, and just one team that is an outright favorite, the majority of the teams will be targeting Liverpool players, and for good reason. But there are other strategies to employ this week if you want to end up on top of the leaderboard. For me, there are three distinct strategies that all involve stacking Liverpool, but I’ll get into them in the match analysis. It’s important to note that there are some other players that provide the ability to fill around these Liverpool stacks, and we will try to pin point those further down.
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
First let’s talk about the different stacking options for Liverpool,
1) Stack Liverpool via Salah– This is the most obvious choice, as Salah has 29 goals in 29 games and clearly has been one of the best players in the world for the last few months. On DraftKings, Salah is very expensive, Messi level expensive, but he’s not impossible to fit in your teams. However, you’ll have a very hard time picking him without skimping on spending elsewhere, probably midfield. The ideal Liverpool Salah stack probably involves the goalkeeper Karius, and one of the fullbacks, probably Robertson or Clyne, depending on which of them gets the start. For the rest of the team you’ll have to sacrifice picking expensive options from other matches and go for midrange or value options.
2) Stack Liverpool without Salah and with one of Firmino/Mane – If you avoid Salah, you can get Firmino or Mane on your team and still have enough room to fit three more Liverpool players on your team as long as you choose to go with value options elsewhere. Personally, I would take one of Firmino or Mane and fit two mid-range players from other games, and one expensive option from other games to widen my exposure a little. This is likely to be the cash game strategy as it yields the highest floor and limits reliance on a Liverpool team, that while they should win this game easily, may not run up the score as they just played in the midweek in the UCL and may want to rest some players at the 60 minute mark.
3) Stack Liverpool with both Firmino and Mane – This one will probably be a popular GPP strategy as I can see several versions of this team being built. For one, both Firmino and Mane are unlikely to be blanked in a Liverpool match. In their last 10 matches, all three star forwards started in 8 of the 10 EPL contests, and in all but 2 of those matchups did both Firmino and Mane either score or assist. Making them a high certainty of solid performance if they’re all given the start. For the rest of your team you’ll have to give up on putting in a high priced keeper and go with an underdog on the road, never an ideal option, but you never know with goalkeeper. You’ll also have to abandon the idea of taking a high priced player from another match and will likely have to settle for one or two extreme value options.
What about Bournemouth? Do they have a shot here? In 11 home contests against non-top 6 teams this season, Liverpool have conceded just three goals, and they are undefeated at home in those contests. The team has not lost at home this season and Anfield is a virtual fortress as they go into their final stretch of the season. I don’t expect this to change this week, Bournemouth have only scored three goals against a top six team away, and those came at Chelsea, and we know that Chelsea has had some bad stretches where they were easily not good enough to be considered a top six squad this season.
Bottom line, I’m not touching any plays from Bournemouth, and instead will focus my attention in this match on picking which Liverpool players are worth the salary.
Swansea vs Everton
For the remaining matches on this slate, I’ll break down the teams into who I think are viable options to consider from each squad based on their price range for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The biggest challenge Saturday will be finding the right combination of players to go with your Liverpool stack, whichever one it may be.
The matchup between Swansea and Everton is an interesting one. Just 2 months ago I wouldn’t have given the Swans much hope in this one assuming that Everton had the skillset and firepower to breeze past them. But looking at the recent matchups you’ll see that the Swans have moved four points out of the relegation zone and are just 9 points behind Everton who are actually in 9th place in the table.
Everton have not been very solid away from home as they have failed to get a win on the road except for two matchups, including against Stoke in their last away match. In fact, that win for Everton away was their first points since the turn of the calendar.
On the other side of the matchup, Swansea are at home and are looking to cement their position in the premier league this season, especially at home. They actually managed 16 points in their last 10 matches, where they achieved the same number of points (16) in their previous 22 matches combined. At that rate, Swansea are a much different team now than they were early in the season making this a much closer matchup than you would anticipate based on their positions in the league.
As for the players that are worth considering from this matchup, there are a few to look into
Expensive Options $7K and above
None
Midrange Options $4.5K to $7K
Cenk Tosun, $5,700 DK, $7,500 FD – Tosun scored twice against Stoke and is their best goal scoring option on this team. His price is too high on Fanduel to consider without sacrificing in other places. he’s a solid option and priced perfectly on DK to fit in multiple strategies.
Theo Walcott, $6,700 DK, $7,000 FD – He’s a more interesting option on DK with his ability to cross the ball and his overall skillset which benefits him the ability to fill up on fantasy points as he creates chances to set up his teammates and takes shots to increase his chances at scoring goals.
Tammy Abraham, $6,100 DK, $7,500 FD – he got his first start for the Swans in the premier league since Christmas, and he rewarded his manager with a goal to save a point on the road against West Brom. He might end up sitting though in favor of Jordan Ayew who was serving a three match suspension. Though I suspect that Carvajal will find a way to start both strikers in a likely 4-4-2 formation.
Value Options $4.5K and below
Sam Clucas, $4,400 DK, $6,500 FD – He’s a better option on DK than FD, but he’s got a chance to miss this match after missing Thursday’s practice with a calf issue. If he does start then he’s a good potential for crosses and even an assist, if he doesn’t start then look for Carroll or Ki to take that role for this Swans team.
Jordan Pickford, $4,500 DK, $5,500 FD – Probably my choice for a cheap goalkeeper option who might see a goal but would still get some saves. He’s a risky spot, but if you’re having to step down at keeper, then he is one of the better options.
Burnley vs Leicester
These two teams are sitting in 7th and 8th place in the table and this match will likely be a good one. Burnley have not kept a clean sheet at home since Christmas and Leicester have scored in all but one of their away matches since October with seven matches this season that saw them score more than a single goal away from home. This bodes for a good opportunity for some goals being scored in this match as both teams seem to excel in situations that mimic this match.
So what plays can we consider from this matchup?
Expensive Options $7K and above
Riyad Mahrez, $9,400 DK, $9,500 FD – A GPP option that doesn’t really deliver on his salary unless he scores a goal or assists. The good news is that he’s scored or assisted on 17 goals this season in 29 appearances for Leicester.
Johann Berg Gudmundsson, $9,000 DK, $7,500 FD – If he does get the start, I can see him dropped 10+ crosses and some shots and even creating chances. He’s a cash play on FD, but his price is so high on DK that he will likely be a gpp option only.
Jamie Vardy $7,700 DK, $10,000 FD – He’s got goals in his last three matches and seven goals in his last 10 premier league matches. He’s priced cheaper than Mahrez on DK and has just as high as a ceiling. I wouldn’t hesitate sticking him into my lineups.
Midrange Options $4.5K to $7K
Marc Albrighton, $6,900 DK, $7,000 FD – He’s more of a cash play on DK because of his crosses. He doesn’t score a lot and doesn’t touch the ball a ton close to the goal. He’s a low ceiling high floor player, but still not a great option, though he’s likely to be underowned.
Ashley Barnes $6,000 DK, $9,000 FD – His four game scoring streak ended last time out, but he gets another chance at it this week at home against this Leicester squad. I think he finds the back of the net once more to make it five goals in his last six. His price on FD make him unplayable especially given the other options.
Value Options $4.5K and below
None
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
I like both these teams to find a way to stay in the premier league next season, but Palace are the closest to the drop. They have some good talent in players like Zaha, Cabaye and Milivojevic so I think they can put on a good performance for their fans in this one. I suspect that this matchup will favor the home team when it’s all said and done.
Brighton are not a pushover though, in recent weeks they had wins against Arsenal and Swansea while splitting points at home with Huddersfield despite losing Propper to a straight red card. Brighton aren’t an offensive juggernaut as they score less than a goal a game on the season, and that tally is even worse on the road where they’ve only scored 7 goals all season.
This match will likely not feature a lot of Brighton goals however, but Palace can put up 2 goals if they finish their chances.
Expensive Options $7K and above
Wilfried Zaha, $8,700 DK, $8,500 FD – Zaha is a bright young talent that has a lot to offer. When he’s on the pitch this Palace team is completely different. If he’s healthy enough to play the full 90 and gets the start then he’s an easy play to partner with any Liverpool stack you choose. He’s going to get double digit points on DK or come close to it with or without a goal as he’s done most weeks this season when he’s played.
Pascal Gross, $7,300 DK, $9,500 FD – Another player that can be a cash option if the team does well. Given that they are on the road, I’d venture him as a tournament option only. He does however create chances for his teammates as evidenced by his 3-4 chances created in all but one of the matches played since February. He’s also a shot taker for the team and one of their more consistent offensive threats.
Midrange Options $4.5K to $7K
Luka Milivojevic, $5,800 DK, $9,000 FD – I admit, he’s overpriced on FD, but on DK he’s just right. He used to just have value because of his penalty kick taking ability for Palace, but in his last three matches he’s scored a goal in each to get his FD average in his last three to ~36 points, and on DK it’s ~17 points. These are great numbers for a player that costs just 5.8K and can repeat that feat this week.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka, $4,600 DK, $6,500 FD – He’s cheap and one of the reliable defenders to get you 5-10 points this week. I don’t have much to say about his game, but you’ll have to take chances on defense and your best bets are with full backs and he’s one of the cheaper ones on a team at home.
Value Options $4.5K and below
James McArthur, $3,300 DK, $6,000 FD – A defensive midfielder isn’t normally someone we want to target very much, but he’s a possibility for this palace team, especially on FD, but his value on DK provides him a very low floor and low ceiling, but we really only need about 5-6 points from him to make him worth considering. Can he get those? Sure. Can he exceed them? Absolutely, but I’m not betting my mortgage on it.
Huddersfield vs Watford
This match is the last one to consider for Saturday. These are two teams that I don’t think will provide a lot of fireworks this weekend. Neither of them have had a good run lately as they have a combined 2 wins between them in their last six matches. Watford in particular have fallen to just 9 points ahead of the relegation zone and Huddersfield aren’t doing much better as they sit just four points out. Huddersfield have just 3 goals in their last six matches, while Watford have five goals in their last six matches. There are still 1 or 2 players to consider from this matchup despite the lack of potential of goals.
Expensive Options $7K and above
None
Midrange Options $4.5K to $7K
Jose Holebas, $6,700 DK, $6,000 FD – He took 15 crosses last match for Watford and 10 the match before that one. He’s going to keep crossing the ball as that is how Watford want to play, through wing distribution, and Holebas is getting some DK points because of that. He’s a bit expensive as a defender, but he’s a great cash game option.
Alex Pritchard, $6,100 DK, $6,500 FD – He’s a shot in the dark as he’s taken some crosses last couple of matches, but I don’t know if his role will continue as it has been in recent weeks. Again, I don’t expect plenty of goals in this match so you don’t have a high ceiling, but if you’re looking for a mid-ranged midfielder, he’s an option, but I don’t think I’ll be going here personally.
Value Options $4.5K and below
None