EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 35
The EPL season is coming to a close soon, and Manchester City are crowned champions. We still have battles for Champions League spots and Europa League spots as well as the battles to avoid relegation. With six matches on the slate, we can build some good lineups that can be competitive on Saturday. What’s more, we also have a showdown contest on Saturday for the early match between Liverpool. If you’re playing the showdown, head down to the bottom of this article for my showdown rankings for the players appearing in that contest.
Before we get to that though, we have to tackle the Grind Down. This week’s Grind Down will go through the matches one by one analyzing the top plays to consider and we will try to break down where our teams can go. Luckily for us this week we have a lot of directions to take, so that means that the lineups should be varied enough. The late game is the only game that includes a top six squad, Chelsea, as they visit Swansea, Chelsea need a win to keep their hopes at getting into the Champions League alive, while Swansea need some points to avoid getting into the relegation zone. Elsewhere, we have two teams that are battling relegation in play (West Brom and Southampton), we also have one team fighting from the outside to get into the Europa League next season (Burnley). So even without rostering anybody from the Chelsea match, there are good opportunities to take advantage of in all our other matches.
So let’s get on with the contests
Swansea vs Chelsea
Swansea host a Chelsea squad that is looking to win out the rest of the season with just four matches remaining in their schedule. They’ll need to get a win here as their remaining matches include Liverpool (H), Huddersfield (H) and Newcastle (A). Chelsea should have a tough time here if recent results are to be a barometer for future performance.
Looking at past performances, Swansea’s home matches against top-six squads saw them win against Arsenal and Liverpool while they lost to Tottenham, and both Manchester clubs. Looking at the broader spectrum, they managed to get 13 out of 15 possible points in their last five matches. Looking at the teams they played in that span, Liverpool, Arsenal, Burnley, West Ham and Everton. Four of those teams are in the top 8 in the table. After the Chelsea match, Swansea have three matches, with two home meetings against Stoke and Southampton, the two teams they are trying to hold off in the race to stay in the top flight. Swansea then must believe they can come away with a result against former champions. In order to predict this match, we’d need to look at how Swansea turned things around in recent weeks. Here’s what they did:
- They played a 5-4-1 formation with Jordan Ayew as the lone striker in four out of five matches, and in the fifth they had a 4-4-2 with the Ayew brothers leading the line. – In the Liverpool and Arsenal matches they held the ball less than 30% while in the other three matches they were closer to 50% possession. I suspect they’ll get close to 30% against Chelsea. – The match that likely will most resemble the Chelsea contest is the Liverpool match. – Against Liverpool, Swansea sat back and scored a goal off a corner kick that pinballed around the penalty area before finding Alfie Mawson who slotted into the bottom corner. – Expect that Swansea will put two players on Hazard and Willian any time they make it into the box, and Morata or Giroud (whichever starts) will not get a clean touch. Swansea also will play the offside trap a few times so speed could be a key contributor to the goal scoring.
So to predict this match, I think Chelsea will hold possession and will get a lot of shots on target. They could score 1-2 goals. The only pressure Chelsea’s defense will feel will be from counter attacks. Ultimately, Chelsea will likely come out winners, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Swansea pull another upset off.
High Priced Players (Greater than $8000)
Eden Hazard, $10,500 DK, $11,500 FD – He’s the dynamo of this team and he’s having to pick up some extra offensive touches without Marcos Alonso. His touch map shows him all over the pitch in his last three matches that he started. Hazard has a goal and assist in his last three matches and could continue that trend this week. The pivot from Hazard is Willian who should be on set pieces, but I don’t trust that he’ll get as many attempts on goal as Hazard.
Morata/Giroud, $9.3K/$9.5K DK, $11K/$11.5K FD – Depending on which one of these two starts, I would try to shoehorn them into your lineup.
Mid-Priced Players ($4500- $7950)
Emerson, $6,300 DK, $5,000 FD – As a defender who is getting a spot to start in place of the suspended Marcos Alonso for three matches. This is the third match for him starting and he’ll be looking to prove that he’s a solid player for either Chelsea or somewhere else if he can get himself a move over the summer. He’s priced very high for what he can produce, so you’ll need him to get an assist or goal and he’s not a cash game option but rather a tournament option because of his high price on DK.
Jordan Ayew, $5,000 DK, $7,500 FD – As previously mentioned, Ayew has had a hand in goals that Swansea have scored at home all season. He has goals in three of his last four home matches. If Swansea score in this one, then Ayew is likely the one scoring the goal.
Tom Carroll, $4,500 DK, $6,500 FD – He’s normally a cash game option and he’s only going to be worth selecting if he gets a goal or assist. It’s not out of the question, but I wouldn’t count on it too much. At $4.5K on DK though, he’s very much worth selecting on a tournament lineup.
Value Plays (Less than $4,500)
Lukasz Fabianski, $3,900 DK, $5,500 FD – He’s my favorite goalkeeper on the slate as he’s at home and he’s an underdog. If you watched his last few matches you’ve seen Swansea’s keeper stand tall in his goal and stop plenty of shots. I expect that Chelsea will pepper him with shots and you’ll just be counting on him to make saves otherwise the Swans won’t fare well in this one.
Burnley vs Brighton
Burnley are just four points behind an Arsenal team that have a game in hand for a spot in Europa League. It is unlikely that Burnley does actually catch up with Arsenal but they’ll have to go into every match to the end of the season looking for a win. Brighton on the other hand are just seven points out of the relegation zone but are sitting in 13th place. Lots will have to happen for them to drop to relegation, but they won’t want to take chances. Expect that this will be a tight match but that Burnley ultimately come away as winners making them a team we want to consider for our goal scoring this week.
High Priced Players (Greater than $8000)
Johann Berg-Gudmundsson, $9,700 DK, $9,000 FD – JBG is one of the top players on the slate as he’s playing at home against a weaker team and he’s recently been very active. He’s had double-digit points on DK in eight of his last 10 matches and I suspect that he’ll do it again in this matchup. He’s priced very high though so him reaching 2X is a tall order and he’ll need a goal and 10+ crosses.
Mid-Priced Players ($4500- $7950)
Ashley Barnes, $6,800 DK, $9,500 FD – He’s got goals in his last two matches and is priced very generously as a home favorite, especially on DraftKings. If he doesn’t get the start then Wood is a good alternative as he’s $6.3K only. Barnes has 9 goals on the season with six of them in his last ten, He’s looking to finish his season strong and get himself in the 10 goal club.
Crystal Palace vs Leicester
The next match to consider is Crystal Palace vs Leicester. Palace are sitting in 14th place with just a six-point cushion on the relegation zone. They’re playing a better team in Leicester at home and the match should be an interesting one. There are a number of interesting players to consider from each side.
High Priced Players (Greater than $8000)
Wilfried Zaha, $9,400 DK, $9,000 FD – If Palace have a good game it will come down to Zaha putting in some work and getting his team going. He has potential for goals, crosses, chances created, assists, and shots. All of which are beneficial on both FD and DK. He’s expensive, but on a slate like this one, he’s easily going to be one of the go-to players when everybody is building a lineup. That means that if he scores a goal or two and you don’t have him, then you might be in trouble.
Riyad Mahrez, $9,100 DK, $9,500 FD – Mahrez is back to being a cash game consideration. He has 22 crosses in his last three games and has double-digit DK points in his last two. He still needs at least a goal if he is to make value but in a match like this one, he’s got a chance.
Mid-Priced Players ($4500- $7950)
Jamie Vardy, $7,600 DK, $10,000 FD – He has one of the higher goal scoring odds on the week and is probably wanting to start getting in goal scoring shape as England starts prepping for the world cup pretty soon. If Vardy wants to be considered one of the world’s best strikers then he needs to score goals against the likes of Crystal Palace. Expect him to be active off the ball in this one and if he’s doing that, he should be getting some touches close to the goal and you know he’ll let them fly. With 17 goals so far on the season, he’s just wanting to add to his tally.
Yohan Cabaye, $5,900 DK, $7,000 FD – Cabaye carries some potential as a defensive midfielder, especially on FD but he’s been advancing recently as an attacking threat and pushing forward with his team. Cabaye takes some corners for the squad and when he does he crosses them. A good pivot from him would be Milivojevic who does take penalties for Palace.
James Tomkins, $7,000 FD – I won’t even list Tomkins’ DK price as he’s not worth considering over there, but he is a great cash option on FD at defense with a 20+ point floor as he excels in clearances, interceptions, and tackles.
Huddersfield vs Everton
Another team that is looking to escape relegation hell is Huddersfield as they are just in 16th place and six points out of the drop zone. A matchup with a tough Everton squad should prove to be vital for their chances as they look to come away with some points, though the rest of their schedule doesn’t look very promising as they play Manchester City, Chelsea, and Arsenal in their final three weeks. This match with Everton is potentially their last chance to get points this season so they’ll come at it with all that they have.
On the other side, Everton have two more matches after this and they are sitting in a very stable position in the table. Battling with Leicester for 8th place, but neither of them really have a chance at any European football next season. I expect that Everton will work on their rotation and could try to play some defensive football, especially on the road.
Neither of these teams have been rocking the world with their goal scoring in recent weeks. In their last three matches, Everton have just three goals total with one of those matches being a 0-0 draw with Liverpool. While Huddersfield have just four goals in the last three matches. I don’t expect this match to be a goal scoring extravaganza, but I do think there will be some contested football here that could lead to errors and thus lots of peripheral stats.
High Priced Players (Greater than $8000)
None
Mid-Priced Players ($4500- $7950)
Alex Pritchard, $6,200 DK, $6,500 FD – He’s been the taking corner kicks for Huddersfield in the recent matches but he splits them with Ince who takes the right side, while Pritchard takes the left side. If you look at his recent matches when Ince didn’t start he did take corners on both sides which was appealing as he ended up with 9 crosses against Watford. In this match against Everton he could end up with double-digit points and that would make him well worth the selection.
Oumar Niasse, $5,700 DK, $7,000 FD – He might be getting a start on Saturday without Dominic Calvert-Lewin who sustained a stress fracture in his back and will be out for the remainder of the season and possibly through the summer. Niasse stands to benefit from this as he should get the start and if he does he makes for a cheap forward to consider, though there are plenty of expensive options I’d want to take ahead of him in the spot.
Florent Hadergjonaj, $4,900 DK, $5,000 FD – He’s defender eligible on both sites but has crazy potential for crosses. He recorded 21 crosses three matches ago and has been looking to replicate that performance. Given how desperate Huddersfield are to win this match, he’ll be whipping them in to try to set his teammates up. Steve Mounie is a good player to combine with Hadergjonaj as he has 14 header attempts this season with three of them being goals. I can see an assist-goal combo from these two this week.
Value Plays (Less than $4,500)
Jonjo Kenny, $4,300 DK, $5,000 FD – He’s probably going to get the start over Leighton Baines who might miss the match because of a gash on his forehead (can’t head the ball without stitches getting loose). If Kenny does start then he should be a forward-thinking player who could produce some fantasy production. Moreover, he’s real cheap and could make way to have more expensive options up front.
Newcastle vs West Brom
I never like taking Newcastle players as I never seem to pick them right, I also don’t like taking players that travel to Newcastle as it’s a far away city in the North of England. But, this is a match that could be interesting. There are a number of players with a solid floor and some upside of goal scoring as well that we can take advantage of. As for the teams themselves, West Brom is not officially relegated yet, and they have 5 points in their last three matches. Nevertheless, I don’t suspect the players will quit the fight just yet as these recent matches saw them draw with Liverpool 2-2 and defeat Manchester United 1-0. There is potential there, but I personally don’t feel inclined to spend too much money on players from either of these teams unless I absolutely have to.
So who could we potentially take?
High Priced Players (Greater than $8000)
Kenedy, $8,100 DK, $8,500 FD – The Newcastle midfielder has been getting 8+ points on DK in 5 straight games, with two games hitting double digits with 2 goals and an assist combined in those matches. On FD he’s eclipsed 20 points in 3 of his last five. So he has the ability to produce on both sites with both scoring methodologies. I expect that he’ll threaten to score this week against one of the leagues bottom five defenses and overall worst team.
Mid-Priced Players ($4500- $7950)
Ayoze Perez, $7,900 DK, $10,000 FD – He’s expensive on FD but on DK he’s just under my “expensive” threshold. He’s still pricey and is very goal dependent. But as mentioned with Kenedy, West Brom are #bad and Perez has four straight matches with double-digit DK points including three goals as well as averaging 3.25 shots per game in that span.
Salomon Rondon, $6,000 DK, $8,000 FD – He’s got a relegation clause in his contract and whichever team gets him will be very happy with the price tag. He hasn’t had the best season and there is already discussion that he might not be worth the 16.5 million pounds (~$22.75m) but I think he’s going into the clubs remaining matches in the premier league with an eye on himself and on goal scoring. Already in his last few games he seems a lock for three shots a game and at least in the conversation as one of the most likely players to score a goal on any given night. I would pair him with Jay Rodriguez for a low owned tournament play and see if they can combine for a goal-assist, but be warned that this would be on my 10th team in a tournament (I usually only enter 3 when I make it across the border to enter games) so I guess I’m saying I am not going to pair them up, but it’s an option I don’t hate.
Chris Brunt, $5,700 DK, $7,000 FD – If you do want to pair Rondon or Rodriguez with somebody then Brunt is the safe option and he’s cheap enough. He the team leader in assists and gets their crosses in play for them. He’s a cheap midfield option and clears up some space for other pieces to fill your lineup with.
Value Plays (Less than $4,500)
None
Southampton vs Bournemouth
Southampton went into this season thinking they could challenge for a top-six spot. Things went horribly wrong to say the least. They enter the final four matches sitting in the drop zone and four points behind Swansea. They’ll want to take advantage of this matchup with Bournemouth as they have Everton and Manchester City (last match of the season) coming up. So a win here and a win against Swansea on the road could secure their place in the premier league next season. But a slipup in either of these two matches will find Southampton staying where they are and that is in position to book a trip to the Championship next season.
Bournemouth, on the other hand, find themselves in a good position with just three matches left. They’re playing Southampton, then Swansea next week, then their final match is with Burnley. They want to come away with points in this one as they are not safe yet and need three points to reach safety. This matchup will feature lots of attack from Southampton with Bournemouth looking to get a goal on the counter.
I will give a word of warning, however, that the Saints are experts at not doing what you think they’ll do. I don’t doubt that there is some version of this match that sees the Saints giving up possession and parking the bus for 90 minutes and counting on a counter attack. I will use my logic when evaluating this team and assume they’ll play well. They played well in two matches against Chelsea despite losing in both the FA cup semi-final and the Premier League.
High Priced Players (Greater than $8000)
None
Mid-Priced Players ($4500- $7950)
James Ward-Prowse, $7,800 DK, $8,000 FD – Ward-Prowse is one of the team’s better players who has the ability to score goals and has been taking corners for them in the recent past. If he doesn’t get the start then Tadic, Bertrand, and Redmond seem to take the burden. I do expect that JWP will start though and if he does then he’ll be a big part of my lineup construction strategy on Saturday.
Charlie Austin, $7,100 DK, $7,500 FD – Chaz Austin started against Chelsea and looked real active and got close to scoring a couple of times. I suspect he’ll be rewarded with another start and if he does, Bournemouth is a team he can score against. He’ll at least take some shots against him. If he doesn’t start then Shane Long should get the nod and he’s also very capable of scoring goals for this team.
Ryan Fraser, $7,400 DK, $7,500 FD – Fraser had 8 chances created against Crystal Palace 3 weeks ago and has double-digit crosses in 3 of his last 4 matches. I think he’ll be active in this one as Bournemouth get the ball. He’s a good player to pair with Joshua King who’s going to play striker and they can combine for a goal-assist.
Ryan Bertrand, $5,800 DK, $5,500 FD – The defender pushes forward with the attack and is one player who might be looking for a new home if Southampton do get relegated. He probably will play hard to showcase his abilities. Bertrand will also be trying to make the case to play in the World Cup this summer for England so his performances have potential for some personal gain.
Value Plays (Less than $4,500)
Charlie Daniels, $4,200 DK, $5,000 DK – Daniels starts as a full back for Bournemouth and gets his fair share of crosses and touches in the final third. If Bournemouth put pressure on S’oton, expect that Daniels won’t be sitting back but instead will push forward and support the attack.
Liverpool vs Stoke Showdown
For the showdown, you have to pick six players that satisfy the $50K salary cap. There are some differences in scoring, as successful passes and shot-assists (chances created) are counted. Also, saves are worth more points for goalkeepers than goals conceded. You also have goals being weighed heavier for defenders than midfielders than forwards. So, here’s my tiers of players (by price) then ranking of the players within the tiers.
High Priced Players (Greater than $8000)
1. Mo Salah – $16,500
2. James Milner – $10,600
3. Danny Ings – $9,300 – he might start if Mane sits and would likely play the full 90 minutes.
4. Roberto Firmino $12,400
5. Trent Alexander-Arnold $8,300
6. Xherdan Shaqiri $9,600
Mid-Priced Players ($4500- $7950)
1. Jack Butland $5,600
2. Georginio Wijnaldum $5,800
3. Andrew Robertson $7,900
4. Joe Allen – $5,300
5. Joe Gomez/Nathaniel Clyne $7,300/$6,400 – One of them could start for Trent Alexander-Arnold if TAA is rested prior to the return leg with Roma.
Value Plays (Less than $4,500)
1. Ragnar Klavan $4,500
2. Darren Fletcher $4,300
3. Kurt Zouma $4,000