EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 36
The calendar has turned to May and it all comes down to these last few matchups. Winning home games becomes vital as teams look to cement their position in the EPL for next season and not be relegated to the Championship. Of the ten teams in play on Saturday, seven are still not mathematically safe from relegation. Of those seven, two are actually in the relegation zone and will need every point to support their bid to move up in the standings before it’s too late. Of the other three teams, Leicester and Everton are safe from relegation and have nothing to play for really, while Tottenham are playing to secure the fourth place finish to guarantee Champions League play next season. So overall, we are going to be looking at matches that matter in every single scenario where at least one team needs all three points to achieve their goals this season.
Watford vs Newcastle
Watford find themselves suddenly in 13th place just six points ahead of the relegation zone after failing to get wins in their last seven matches. And while three of those matches came against top six teams, they did drop points against the likes of Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield and Burnley. So they are susceptible to losing to a team like Newcastle, especially with the recent performances of the Toons. Newcastle on the other hand find themselves just one point away from safety and a draw on the road against Watford would be sufficient for them. And while a draw would also advance the hopes of Watford, I don’t suspect that the home team in this situation will choose to forego points if they can help it.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
No Players exceed this price range
Midranged Plays (Between $5,000 and $8,000 DK)
Matt Ritchie, M, $7,000DK, $8,500 FD – Ritchie is going to be a cash play option for this team as he gets plenty of touches and delivers crosses for this team. In their last match, he took three shots, had three chances created and delivered 11 crosses. With a little bit of luck he could have had a goal or an assist and his 14.8DK points could have exceeded 20 points putting him at close to 3x. His floor is likely 8+ points as it will be lower as the team are on the road, but given Watford’s recent performances, I wouldn’t be surprised with him exceeding those numbers.
Richarlison, F, $6,700 DK, $7,500 FD – The 20 year old Brazilian has slowed down his production significantly from his early season levels and had not started for four straight matches until the team’s last contest against Tottenham. In that contest Richarlison took 4 shots and was very active including 50 total touches with 9 coming inside the box. I expect if he gets the start that he’ll continue being active for his team and could provide substantive value to his team that allows them to come away with a vital win in their race to stay up.
Troy Deeney, F, $5,500 DK, $7,000 FD – For a team that has scored just two goals in their last seven matches and are led in scoring by a defensive midfielder, they’ll need some help in that department if they are to remain in the Premier League. I already highlighted Richarlison, but Troy Deeney is another option to consider in tournaments. I like him best over Will Hughes and Deulefeu as he has the more experience in this team and has been on penalties in the past. His price tag is very appealing, but remember that he is a tournament option only because of his heavy dependence on goal scoring for his fantasy points.
Kenedy, M, $7,500 DK, $8,500 FD – The Chelsea loanee is keen on proving himself and earning a spot on the Chelsea squad next season or at least finding himself a spot starting somewhere else. He’s helped guide Newcastle in recent weeks. In his last match he finished with 7 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 shots, and two crosses. His total production can go up and his ownership may be understated as he’s one of the more expensive options from this match, I can see him being under-owned. If I were to enter contests this week he would be a tournament play and would be a player I would want to get more exposure to than the field.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
none
West Brom vs Tottenham
This is a matchup that should feature some goals. Tottenham are a heavy favorite and they need a clear victory here to get 3 points and move away from Chelsea for the 4th place finish in the table. Harry Kane and company will put the pressure on the West Brom defense early in the match and I expect that the defense will make mistakes and concede more than 2 goals in this one. The question then remains, which players are worth considering in this matchup?
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Harry Kane, F, $12,200 DK, $12,500 FD – A lot has been said lately about Kane taking credit for goals he didn’t score, but that criticism is unfair as Kane has been excellent this season with 27 goals. In most seasons that would win him the goal scoring title, but this year he’s dealing with the other-worldly Mo Salah who has 31 goals so far in the EPL and 45 goals overall. But what Kane brings to the table the potential for a hat-trick in any match and with just three matches remaining, Kane can sneak into the top goal scorer spot on the season. He’s the only top striker on the slate and the only expensive play really to pick from. He’s going to be 80% owned and can deliver on his price tag. If you don’t roster him and he scores a brace then you can kiss your chances at cashing goodbye.
Christian Eriksen, M, $10,600 DK, $10,500 FD – If you want to get exposure to Tottenham outside of Kane will have to look at players like Eriksen and Dele Alli and/or Son. Eriksen is my favorite in that group, but I caution against using him as a cash option as he doesn’t have the floor he used to since that distinction goes to others.
Midranged Plays (Between $5,000 and $8,000 DK)
Kieran Trippier, D, $6,200 DK, $6,500 FD – Trippier is my cash option here as he had taken 11 crosses in his last match and Eriksen was on the pitch at that time, so I expect him to continue that trend this match and he will feature in plenty of teams. Having him on your lineup will function more as a block than anything else. I do expect that he will still remain a valuable part of lineup construction this week because of the way that the games are looking.
Matt Phillips, M, $4,800 DK, $6,500 FD – With West Brom earning points in four straight matches I expect them to put up a fight this week against a Tottenham team that does have some weaknesses. Phillips is their most consistent producer. Of course, that is a relative measure as this team has been anything but consistent and that is what puts them in last place and most likely to be relegated team this season.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Ben Foster, GK, $3,600 DK, $5,000 FD – The goalkeeper position is tough, the easiest pick would be Ben Foster who plays at home and will host the most prolific offense in play. He’s expected to concede goals, but you can get some value here as he has upside of 5-6 saves but he could concede 2-4 goals at the same time. But for just $3.6K on DK he’s worth the cheap price tag.
Leicester vs West Ham
Leicester got manhandled last week against Crystal Palace where they conceded 5 goals and really surprised me by how listless they looked. I expect that the team has now checked out despite there still being three matches left for them. Mahrez came out Friday with a statement that he rescinds his transfer request, meaning he probably realizes that his transfer value is nonexistent and it also means that he’s ready for a nice relaxing summer as Algeria did not make the World Cup. Bottom line I don’t think that Leicester will play their best football on Saturday and West Ham have a chance at a win here that can push them up to 38 points on the season and closer to safety as they head for the final two matches on the season.
I will not be recommending Mahrez because I don’t know what his state of mind will be. But if I were to consider just his play recently then I think he’s a great play. And he has the ability to produce plenty of peripheral stats. You can roster him at your own risk, but I would be staying away from him because of his potential mental shut down given the end of the season.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
None
Midranged Plays (Between $5,000 and $8,000 DK)
Marko Arnautovic, M/F, $7,700 DK, $9,000 FD – He’s the most likely player on this team to punish a Leicester team that will be checked out. I can see Arnie being all over the place to get the win as West Ham are very motivated to get the win here. He had double digit points in three out of his last five matches. I think Arnie gets more here with a goal and/or assist in play.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
None
Bournemouth vs Swansea
This match will be a nailbiter. Both these teams need all three points and they desperately don’t need to lose any points. Swansea have their destiny in their own hands as they sit outside the relegation zone and they play two teams next that both are in the relegation zone. Moreover, Bournemouth are a very beatable team, but this is a road game so Swansea need to get points here to help their cause. Bournemouth are not out of the woods yet, they need a win here to guarantee survival next season, but a draw would also help as this is their second to last match and their final match is against Burnely on the road. This game will be a fun one to witness and I expect that there will be plenty of plays to consider here.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Ryan Fraser, M, $9,400 DK, $7,500 FD – Ryan Fraser is a good play. He has double digit crosses in 3 of his last five matches. In his last two he had 6 shots with three of them on target. He has a proclivity to get the ball to his teammates in good positions to take shots, as evidenced by his eight chances created against Crystal Palace four matches ago. He doesn’t have a ton of goal upside, but he’s going to be underowned because everybody will go for the Tottenham players. I don’t blame you for not rostering him, but you shouldn’t be surprised if he delivers a 30+ point game with a goal and his typical 15-20 points.
Midranged Plays (Between $5,000 and $8,000 DK)
Jordan Ayew, F, $5,600 DK, $8,000 FD – Ayew has a decent floor for a forward and he’s very cheap making him a solid play to fit into your tournament lineups. Swansea are desperate so Ayew will get his looks that can be converted into goals. I expect that he’s going to get 2-3 shots while potentially scoring a goal.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Lukasz Fabianski, GK, $4,400 DK, $5,000 FD – Fabianski provides the cheap goalkeeper option who will see some action and can still get the W if he does concede a goal. He’s more expensive than WBA’s option so I like him better as a top GK option.
Everton vs Southampton
I don’t expect that this match will be any different from the other ones this week as it will be a heavily fought contest between the two teams though Everton don’t really have a need to fight hard for a W here, while Southampton are playing for their Premier League lives this week and the next. I will load up on Southampton picks here as they are desperate for a win and will push for it. They will also be playing the late game, if Swansea lose their match and Southampton see an opportunity to jump in the standings they will go hard from the whistle to score an early goal. There are a number of solid plays here to consider from the Saints.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
None
Midranged Plays (Between $5,000 and $8,000 DK)
Dusan Tadic, M, $7,400 DK, $9,500 FD – Tadic had two goals last game to go along with five chances created and five crosses. He’s been playing very strong football as he tries to get his team limping over the finish line. He’s also wanting to get himself ready for the World Cup this summer where Serbia have a very solid chance at advancing to the second round, of which Tadic will play a major role in that. He loses some value with James Ward-Prowse, but I suspect that he’ll still carry some tournament upside even with JWP in the lineup.
Ryan Bertrand, D, $5,300 DK, $5,500 FD – He and Soares will be pushing forward as Southampton look to score goals this game. They’ll want to spread the play out to the wings in order to create more chances and Bertrand and Soares will be major beneficiaries fantasywise because of that. I expect crosses and potential assists and chances created from him and his fellow fullback.
Wayne Rooney, M/F, $5,900 DK, $8,000 FD – I haven’t written Rooney up much this year, but I have a gut feeling about him this week as he enters the last two matches of the season I think he’ll be looking to score a goal and may even get himself a nice floor to work with through crosses and shots. I think he’ll be active and worth a roster spot.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
None