EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 38
For the last time this season I sit down to write the EPL Grind Down. It’s been a fun ride and we’ve been having some fun with it. But soccer is a fickle sport, and each and every week I reevaluate the method to which to evaluate the matches. The biggest problem is that there is no exact science to predicting goal scoring. There is expected goals (xG) which is a great metric that is the closest we have in soccer to “sabrenomics” but the data that feeds the xG model is rare and proprietary. There is also some other opta stats that are available in different places but mostly they are tough to aggregate, which really hurts the analytical side of analysis unless you happen to have access to that data. Nevertheless, we’ve done the best we can. From match analysis to looking at recent performances. But now, each team has played 37 matches. We know the ins and outs of each squad, we know what each team can and can’t do. And we’re up with a 10 match game slate.
Looking at this slate, you quickly realize that the majority of these teams don’t care about the outcome. Most of the positions are set in stone. The only places where there is doubt is the final champions league spot (4th place) which is currently occupied by Liverpool. Liverpool are two points ahead of Chelsea, if Liverpool win, they secure the UCL spot next season. For Chelsea, they need the win to guarantee a spot in the UCL next season. The only other matchup of consequence are the ones that involve Southampton and Swansea. Swansea are 3 points behind the Saints, and they technically have a chance at staving off relegation if the combined goal difference is 10 goals in favor of Swansea. I do not think that’s going to happen, so we can assume that the sum total of matches that matter tomorrow adds up to two.
So how do you predict matches that don’t matter? It’s tough work, I’ll break down each match once again and in each match, I’ll highlight the most likely cash game options and I’ll point out some likely goal scorers with hopefully some statistical backing to why I like their chances of scoring on this final slate of the 2017/2018 season.
Let’s start with the games that matter
Newcastle vs Chelsea
As mentioned earlier, Chelsea need the win here in anticipation of Liverpool losing their match. Newcastle, on the other hand, are sitting in 10th place with no chance of moving up, but a loss can drop them to 15th depending on the results from around the league Sunday. So they don’t really need a W, but the players probably want to get it so they can stay in the top half of the table.
Chelsea didn’t look too encouraging in their midweek matchup with Huddersfield in which they failed to come away with a win that could have put them level with Liverpool in points going into their final matchup. For that reason, I don’t anticipate that the Blues can really bring things home and qualify to the UCL next season, but that also means that they won’t be a team that loses their final match of the season when they need a win. They will put the pressure on Newcastle and they will force them to defend deep into their side of the pitch.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Eden Hazard, M/F $8,500 DK, $10,500 FD – Hazard was very active in a short amount of time in their last match. Conte played it cool and benched him early to give him a rest and that backfired as Chelsea didn’t have much rhythm and played poorly relative to their strengths. Hazard may or may not want Conte out, but I believe he’s a competitor at heart and will push forward to get his team in the opportunity to score goals. Will he score a goal? It’s possible, but his price tag is appealing compared to other high priced and high profile players.
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Olivier Giroud, F, $7,300 DK, $10,500FD – Giroud has been great for this team since his arrival from Arsenal in January. Chelsea are likely to score a goal from their striker, especially if Willian doesn’t play, and I think Giroud has that chance this week. Morata likely isn’t starting, but if Morata starts I like him even more than Giroud as he’s been playing well but just hasn’t been finding the back of the net.
Victor Moses, M, $5,300 DK, $8,000 FD – If you want to take one midfield player from Chelsea on the wing, Moses is a good option as he’s one of the cheaper ones and can create chances for his teammates.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Martin Dubravka, GK, $4,100 DK, $5,000 FD – The home keeper against a team that is desperate to win, while many will avoid Dubravka, you have the chance to get a keeper that can get 5+ saves and concede just a single goal for $4.1K. Of course, there is higher risk if you take him as his team can concede 3-4 goals and he would have no points. But, the low price is worth the risk in my opinion.
Liverpool vs Brighton
On May 26th, Liverpool travel to Kiev to take on Real Madrid in the Champions League final. The Reds will have plenty of time to cement their status as the best team in Europe when they go into that match and Mo Salah likely comes out of there as the best player of the season and would be ready to take Egypt beyond the group stages in the World Cup in Russia this summer. But before we do all that, Liverpool need to take care of business at home. They host Brighton, who have secured a spot in the Premier League next season so have nothing to play for. They will finish anywhere from 10th to 16th depending on how the last game day plays out. Liverpool will secure a top 4 finish with just a single point (unless Chelsea outscore Newcastle by FIFTEEN GOALS!) Klopp will likely name a strong side here to get the team into form for the UCL final. I expect that the players will be relaxed in this one but ready to play hard and force Brighton into defending.
Brighton, on the other hand, don’t really need to do much this match and as such, I don’t anticipate any real challenge to the Reds on the road from them. Moreover, there aren’t any fantasy options I would consider from Brighton for any price tag.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Mohamed Salah, M/F, $10,800 DK, $13,000 FD – What Salah brings to the table has been talked about ad nauseum. He leads the league in goals scored and is far and away the player of the year in the Premier League. I expect that Salah wants to get one more goal at least before the end of the Premier League season and will try hard to make this match worth it.
Sadio Mane, M/F,$8,400 DK, $11,000 FD – Mane is my favorite to score in this match, he’s gotten real close several games now and on the season he has 18 total big chances and he has scored just 10 goals on the season for an average of 55%. The league average is 60% when it comes to big chance conversion so Mane should stand to improve on that percentage. I like his price tag on DK this week and his chances at finishing some of those chances that come his way.
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Trent Alexander-Arnold, D, $5,600 DK, $6,000 FD – TAA makes some sense as he’s a full back for this Liverpool team and can provide some stats for them. He will likely push forward as part of the attack and will be active on the wings. Expect him to create chances and to deliver some crosses if the game script favors him.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK) None
Southampton vs Manchester City
Southampton have all but guaranteed their survival this season with their win over Swansea last week. That result gives them the cushion they needed entering into this weekend’s matches with the newly crowned Champions. City come into this one as their last match of the season and they’ll want to showcase their players. I expect some squad rotation but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if City fields a full squad after their midweek match where they rotated some key players.
As for Southampton, they will be hapless if City brings their A game. I don’t anticipate using any of their players.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Gabriel Jesus, F, $8,200 DK, $11,000 FD – He’s my favorite player from this match to score goals. I think he’s disappointed in scoring just 12 goals this season and with the number of big chances he’s had on the year he wants to fix that. I like Sterling as well, but Sterling has finished more of his chances and if the regression to the mean means anything to you, then you’ll expect that Jesus will eventually finish more of his chances and score more goals. This could be the week.
Kevin De Bruyne, M/F, $9,300 DK, $11,000 FD – It’s hard to not recommend KDB as he’s the leagues best creator. KDB has a chance at creating goals for his teammates and notching more assists to his belt. He rested on Wednesday in their last match and should be getting the start here for Pep’s team. Expect him to get back on crosses and help his team extend their record-breaking goal scoring season.
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Bernardo Silva, M/F, $6,700 DK, $8,000 FD – I don’t really want to take B. Silva, but if you want to get more players from Manchester City, he’s a cheapish option that can push forward and has goal scoring pedigree. He’s worth considering because of that and because City are likely to score 2-3 goals in any given week.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
None
Swansea vs Stoke
Swansea want to keep their hopes of staying up alive. They have to beat Stoke and beat them big. That means that they go into this match pushing as hard as they can to score goals early and then maintain that pressure.
Stoke, on the other hand, are already relegated, the players on the team will want to put on one last show for their fans in the top flight before they spend at least one season in the Championship. I suspect that Swansea will not be successful in their endeavor of scoring a lot of goals, but they will likely come away as winners here especially with the match being played in Wales.
There is some rationale to take Swansea, they are at home and the players will want to showcase themselves for any potential moves to other teams. It is anticipated that both these teams will be losing plenty of players who have relegation clauses in their contracts, so look for some “last hurrah” type performances.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
None
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Jordan Ayew, F, $6,000 DK, $7,500 FD – Ayew is a premier league level striker. And he’s proven it this season with his ability to score goals at this level, he’s likely to land himself a job elsewhere with already rumors swirling about where he can go next. He has 7 goals on the season and a goal here is not out of the question. His price tag is very low and the opponent is one of the worst defensive teams in the league I would recommend Ayew as a good tournament option this week.
Xherdan Shaqiri, M, $7,700 DK, $8,500 FD – He’s the most talented player in this match and sometimes when two bad teams play, the cream rises to the top. Shaqiri should be a noticeable player on Sunday, and as such, he should be eligible for plenty of touches and in return, fantasy points. He’s more expensive than I’d like, but if you can fit him into your lineup I am not against it.
Lukasz Fabianski, GK, $5,200 DK, $5,000 FD – The Polish #1 had 7 saves in the Southampton loss last week and was devastated at the goal being let into the back of his net. He’s at home this week and I think he’ll want to keep a clean sheet against a Stoke squad that is also relegated. He’s not too expensive and is a decent option at goalkeeper to consider.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Ki Sung-Yeung, M, $5,000 DK, $6,500 FD – Ki had the corner kick duty last match and had 8 total crosses for the Swans. I expect him to continue that role this week and be a solid option for cash games, especially with a price tag of just $5K.
West Ham vs Everton
We now venture into the range of matches that don’t matter to anybody. In these matches, I won’t worry too much about what each team needs to do, but rather, which players have been successful in recent weeks and if any specific narratives exist that can affect the outcome.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
None
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Marko Arnautovic, M/F, $7,500 DK, $9,500 FD – Arnie has been the best player on the Hammers since he has been a consistent starter at week 16 till this point. In that time he has 10 goals and six assists and should be continuing to look for his goals this week as the season comes to a close with West Ham guaranteed survival.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Leighton Baines, D, $4,400 DK, $6,500 FD – Baines should be on set pieces and corners again, and for a price tag of $4.4K on DK, he’s a great option for a set piece taker that allows you to fill your team however you like to.
Burnley vs Bournemouth
Burnley are celebrating their achievement of qualifying to the Europa League next season and the team will be playing their last match of the season at home against Bournemouth. Both teams had a successful season by most measures, but this match will mean nothing to them. Sean Dyche and Eddie Howe may want to experiment with some new pieces, but there are some plays that are worth considering here.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
None
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Ryan Fraser, M, $7,900 DK, $8,000 FD – Fraser is on the road here, so he’s got less appeal than if he were at home, but he’s been on set pieces and has had a good run in recent weeks with a goal scored last weekend. He’s priced slightly cheap but he’s not my favorite play in this matchup.
Johann Berg-Gudmundsson, M/F, $7,800 DK, $9,000 FD – My favorite play in this match is Gudmundsson. JBG has the same credentials as Fraser, a set piece taker, the ability to score goals and a shot creator for his teammates, he’s also slightly cheaper than Fraser this week.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Jeff Hendrick, M, $3,000 DK, $6,000 FD – He’s got virtually zero chance at scoring a goal this match. He has 3 big chances total on the season, with 23 total shots (only 4 on target) and a single goal scored. But he’s a home player priced at $3K on DK. I like any of the $3K midfielders for either team to be honest as salary savings. In cases like this, I like to go to the player who touches the ball the most, so I’ll wait for starting lineups to be released and pick from there.
Crystal Palace vs West Brom
Crystal Palace host West Brom in what is the baggies’ last Premier League match for at least a season. West Brom players will want to leave the top flight on a good note and will look for a win here. Both teams may look to play some youngsters, especially Palace who would look to Wan-Bissaka at right back. There may be some squad rotation so I’d be weary of locking a player in without checking lineups in the morning.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Wilfried Zaha, M/F, $8,300 DK, $11,000 FD – He’s been one of the top players on the season and Palace can thank him for their successful season in avoiding relegation. Remember that Palace started the season losing their first 7 matches without scoring a single goal. When Zaha returned to the lineup after a summer injury they started playing better. Zaha may be leaving this team for bigger pastures soon, and he is most likely representing England in the World Cup this summer. He’s going to continue playing alongside Townsend up top and in the last seven matches where he plays as a striker he has 4 goals and 4 assists.
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
None
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Matt Phillips, M, $4,600 DK, $6,500 FD – Phillips has been the driving force behind WBA’s late run and attempt to avoid relegation. He’s been playing well and has created chances, scored goals and gotten touches into the final third. He’s cheap so I recommend him, but I wonder if he’ll play well now that the dream is over and WBA don’t have a chance at safety anymore. Does he even start?
Huddersfield vs Arsenal
Arsenal are playing in Arsene’s final match at the helm and it will be an emotional game for the coach and most of the players. Huddersfield are still celebrating their safety after a draw with Chelsea and ended up partying all night in London. I don’t know how they’re doing entering the Sunday fixture, but chances are, they don’t care too much about this win. I like Arsenal as a team that can score 4+ goals this week and that makes all their front line in play for me.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, F, $8,900 DK, $12,000 FD- Considering all the prices for other top forwards, Aubameyang’s price tag is pretty cheap. I like his ability to score goals in this one and his performances this season have been solid. I think he’s got a chance to deliver a GPP winning performance and it wouldn’t be the first time an Arsenal striker delivered a tournament winning performance on the last day of the season.
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Granit Xhaka, M, $5,200 DK, $8,500 FD – Xhaka has been playing as the holding midfielder, but he’s also been pushing forward and supporting the attack. More than that, he’s been on set pieces, especially if Mkhitaryan isn’t in the lineup. With squad rotation, that is a possibility and makes Xhaka a good play for this week if you want to fit some more Arsenal players in a potentially high scoring match.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
None
Tottenham vs Leicester
Tottenham are coming into this match with nothing to play for, the Foxes are coming into this match with nothing to play for. So what’s worth considering here? The Golden Boot race is still ongoing, and the team may have a chance at delivering their talisman the opportunity to catch up to Mo Salah if he score a hat-trick or even pass him if he scores 4.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
Harry Kane, F, $10,500 DK, $12,000 FD – Like we said earlier, Kane wants to score 4 goals in this one to bypass Salah as the golden boot winner. We already know that he REALLY wants to score goals this season and the opportunity will be there against a Leicester team that he’s had success against in the past. Look for Kane to take plenty of shots and be really active against the Leicester defense.
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Riyad Mahrez, M/F, $7,100 DK, $8,000 FD – He’s one of the top midfielders in the league and he scored a goal last matchup against Arsenal. He’s still a tournament only player, but people don’t roster him anymore, and in a 10 match slate with 20 teams in play, he’ll be overlooked and underowned. Can he score a goal? I think he has the potential for it.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
None
Manchester United vs Watford
The final match of the slate involves United hosting Watford, like many others, this match doesn’t matter for either team. United have one more match after this one, the final of the FA cup against Chelsea that they’ll hope to win, while Watford are getting ready for their summer vacation. United will play a front three of Mata, Rashford, and Martial as Jose Mourinho has already given us some information regarding his lineup.
Watford come into this one after finally getting a win last week after 7 failures. They likely won’t get the win here but they’re probably going to make things difficult for United as they attempt to hold the Red Devils scoreless.
Expensive Plays (Greater than $8,000 DK)
None
Midrange Plays (Between $5,000 and $7,900 DK)
Juan Mata, M, $6,000 DK, $8,500 FD – He’s priced at a great number for a player who’s guaranteed a start and will likely play on the wing. He’s likely to deliver double-digit crosses and take a few shots as well. United will press hard to score a goal and Mata will be one of the main catalysts in that endeavor. You could also get some other United players into your team, Martial and Rashford are more expensive but carry the same upside as Mata, but a lower floor.
Value Plays (Cheaper than $5,000 DK)
Richarlison, F, $5,000 DK, $7,000 FD – I know he technically should be in the midrange but he’s a solid play for a team that will look for a counter attack opportunity, and he can excel in those. Richarlison had a mediocre season compared to the expectations coming into it, but I think he can deliver bigger numbers next year. This match I think he can get a couple of big chances and potentially score a goal if the right situation comes at him.