EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 5

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-10-06 19:29:31

This week we look at the six matches on the Saturday main slate for DFS soccer on FanDuel and DraftKings. There are a couple of major things to look out for, squad rotation and last minute lineup changes. Managers will probably rest some players if they played in the midweek. Also, this is a week where we’ll have to make some big decisions on which expensive forwards and midfielders we need to take. Optimal lineup construction will probably require you to take some risks at forward while going very cheap at at least one midfield spot. It’s not my preferred way to build a team, but sometimes you have to step a bit outside the box.

Huddersfield vs Leicester

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Huddersfield						Leicester
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				3.49						2.27
				W W D L						L W L L
				2-1-1						1-0-3
10.50	4.25	13.25	8.00	21.25	20.25	9.75	3.25	17.50	9.25	17.00	24.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Löwe, Mooy		Mooy, Ince, Löwe		Mooy, Ince, Palmer, Hefele		Mahrez, Slimani, Vardy, Ulloa		Mahrez, Fuchs, Albrighton, Gray		Mahrez, Albrighton, Fuchs, James, Gray

When Huddersfield hosts Leicester this week, it will be just the second match for Leicester where they’re not facing one of last seasons top 6 teams. Their first one was their only win on the season and it came against Brighton (2-0 for Leicester). This will be Leicester’s chance for a second win and a way to start moving up from the bottom half of the table. That said, the team still didn’t look to be focused in their last matchup against Chelsea a 2-1 loss at home. They’ll be looking to turn it around on the road against another EPL newcomer Huddersfield.

Huddersfield are the surprise of the season so far with seven points on four matches including two wins against Newcastle and Crystal Palace and a draw with Southampton. At home this season they have some good results including a win and a draw. Their last match was a disappointment as they lost to West Ham by 2 goals to nil. The team will look to shore up their midfield play and play on the ball better this week as they were dispossessed 14 times against West Ham.

This match will be a good litmus test for both teams to know what we’re really working with in terms of quality of the teams and how well they should fare the rest of the season. In terms of fantasy though, this match probably doesn’t hold a lot of value for cash plays with the exception of Lossl as a goal keeper, while the rest of the players carry very little appeal outside of goal scoring in tournaments.

Huddersfield Top Plays

Tom Ince, $6,500 FD, $5,500 DK – If Huddersfield will improve this week over last week they’ll have to do so at the feet of their midfield, and Tom Ince is a good place to start. Playing at home this week Ince is in a good spot to potentially deliver on his early season performances where he’s had 14 goal attempts with half of them in the box. Look for Ince to continue attacking and trying to break down this Leicester defense and put pressure on Kasper Schmeichel.

Huddersfield Secondary Plays

Jonas Lossl, $5,000 FD, $4,600 DK – Lossl might be in a good spot to see quite a few shots on target and that in turn would generate some saves. Playing at home he’s got a good chance to get a win or potentially a clean sheet. He’s priced cheap enough that he’s worth considering and could be a decent value play that allows you to stack up some expensive options.

Leicester Top Plays

Marc Albrighton, $7,000 FD, $6,200 DK – With Mahrez still pouting and playing like he’s waiting for that transfer window in January, Albrighton will have to step up and play a solid role for this team in the midfield if they are to get some positive results. Albrighton does get free kicks and corner kicks for this team so he’s got some floor and he can also deliver assists and chances created for his teammates that puts him in as a decent cash play option with tournament potential.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Jamie Vardy, $9,000 FD, $6,700 DK – When everybody zig’s, you zag. At least, that’s what I was told to do sometimes anyway. In this case, there may be too much zigging to really zag this week, considering that the majority of the zigging is in the form of rostering players from Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City. Vardy is a distant option to consider here especially without a floor and without the assurance that he’ll score more than a goal. I think Vardy has the best chance of scoring a goal this week on this team but one goal may not be enough though if you could find a way to fit him with a couple of other expensive options he could be valuable in your roster construction.

Liverpool vs Burnley

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Liverpool						Burnley
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.27						13.45
				D W W L						W L D W
				2-1-1						2-1-1
15.50	7.75	8.50	6.00	15.25	12.00	11.75	2.50	19.50	9.75	20.25	25.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Firmino, Milner, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho		Henderson, Milner, Coutinho, Sturridge, Alexander-Arnold		Milner, Henderson, Coutinho, Firmino, Chamberlain, Alexander-Arnold		Vokes, Wood, Barnes, Walters		Brady, Arfield, Hendrick		Brady, Arfield, Defour, Gudmundsson

Liverpool played on Tuesday in the Champions League where they came away with a disappointing 2-2 draw at Anfield against Sevilla. Two first half goals from Firmino and Salah gave the Reds a 2-1 lead early and after their disappointing display against Manchester City last weekend, the team will also be without Sadio Mane after he received a red card in the 37th minute last weekend. Lucky for Liverpool, a match with Burnley should give Jurgen Klopps crew a chance to fix what’s hurting their defense that saw them give up 7 goals in two matches. The team will look to balance their performances as they surely know that a dynamic offense will not be enough to compete for the Premier League title.

Their opponent, Burnley have actually pulled off a couple of upsets early in the season and despite their tough schedule are currently sitting in 7th place. They defeated Chelsea in the season opener and drew with Tottenham two weekends ago before beating Crystal Palace last weekend. Sean Dyche is unfortunately going to have to play the next couple of months without his star goalkeeper, Tom Heaton who had surgery on his thumb and will be out for a while. In his place Nick Pope will man the sticks, and while I wouldn’t recommend taking him this week, he’ll be a keeper we’ll keep an eye on in the future.

Overall, Liverpool will come away likely winners in this matchup and will get some goals or at least attempts which makes their squad an appealing target for stacking. The biggest question on Liverpool will be squad rotation as Coutinho is back from his ~~protest until he transfers to Barcelona~~ injury, and Mane is suspended so they’ll be looking to rotate some players after playing twice in the last 6 days.

Liverpool Top Plays

Mohamed Salah, $10,500 FD, $8,800 DK – Mo Salah has been excellent for this team since his arrival from Rome. In fact, he’s been a candidate for Player of the Week in the Champions League matches this week as well as winning Liverpool player of the month last month. It’s hard not to love what he brings to this team in terms of taking on the defenders as fast paced dribbles and goal scoring as well creating chances for his teammates. Look for Salah to continue that role this week and potentially be one of the highest owned players in all formats.

Alberto Moreno, $7,000 FD, $5,000 DK – Moreno gives a different look at defenders with his knack for pushing forward with the team. It’s a doubt if Liverpool will have to defend much this week, though even if they did, they have been fairly poor at it that they’ll probably counter with more offense. That means that Moreno is a potential high priced defender to go to if that suits your lineup construction.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

Roberto Firmino, $11,000 FD, $8,500 DK – Firmino is another player you can’t ignore. With goals in his last three Liverpool matches (he sat out of the City match), you can’t sleep on him to continue his goal scoring stream and potentially score more than one.

Philippe Coutinho, $$9,500 FD, $$9,700 DK – With Coutinho recovered from his “injury”, he’ll likely start this week with Mane being out with a red card. I don’t expect much from Coutinho early on, but for tournaments if I were building 20 lineups he would end up on at least 2-5 of them because the skill level and talent level is unparalleled. Coutinho also has potential to vault himself immediately into cash playable if he takes over all set pieces for the team, although it is yet to be seen how Klopp divies up the set pieces for this team.

Burnley Top Plays

Ben Mee, $7,500 FD, $2,800 DK -Mee is a FanDuel option only with the potential to rack up defensive stats he can be a real fantasy asset. I wouldn’t consider him for my DK teams because of the limited potential he has in terms of offensive stats, although for $2,800 if he gets 4-5 points you could potentially justify it for tournaments.

Burnley Secondary Plays

Chris Wood, $7,500 FD, $4,800 DK – Liverpool are prone to sloppy defense. If they were to show some sloppiness, then Chris Wood (or whoever starts at striker) is in a good spot to score a goal or two for Burnley to steal some points away from the Reds. Expect him to be a boom or bust option, he could easily walk away with 2-3 points but the upside is there to score a goal (or two).

Newcastle United vs Stoke

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Newcastle United						Stoke
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				2.4						3.41
				L L W W						L W D D
				2-0-2						1-2-1
13.00	5.75	10.75	5.75	18.25	21.25	11.50	3.00	13.75	8.25	18.25	26.25
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Ritchie, Gayle, Mitrovic		Ritchie, Shelvey, Gayle, Atsu		Ritchie, Shelvey		Adam, Shaqiri		Adam, Shaqiri		Shaqiri, Jese, Adam, Allen

Newcastle United faces Stoke in what appears to be an even matchup between two teams that will hover between midtable and bottom half, with Newcastle likely fighting a relegation battle as the season draws to a close. In that, this matchup will be very important for the home team to come away with a result that they can rely on when the going gets tough later in the season. However, this ultimately will leave us with a matchup between two teams that are not very appealing fantasy wise. This is one of three matches that can be ignored since the other three will include high goal scoring totals and heavy favorites. There will be some options out of this matchup though that can be utilized in a tournament or cash game, but they won’t be as obvious as others.

When looking at Newcastle the first thing that stands out is their recent performances in which they managed to defeat West Ham and Swansea by a combined score of 4-0 and in a matchup against a Stoke team that can be blanked in the right matchup, it is intruiging to look at Newcastle for a sign of value. There will be plenty of people who will overlook Newcastle this week because they played 3 of their 4 matches on Sundays so far making them a very unlikely team that many have had exposure to. Stoke are another team that has played very well in the early going with a win against Arsenal and a draw last weekend against Manchester United, they’ll be looking for a way to come away from Newcastle with some points on the road. This match has potential to be a slugfest though, both these teams average roughly 40% possession, and fewer than 15 shots a game. This means that any forwards will be tournament only options, and they won’t be enticing ones at that. And any midfielders will rely on whether or not they have the right combination of floor and price before they feature in my cash teams.

Newcastle United Top Plays

Matt Ritchie, $9,000 FD, $7,100 DK – The search for set piece takers leads us to Matt Ritchie. He had 8, 9 and 6 crosses in his last 3 matches for the toons. Two of those wins against Swansea and West Ham. If Ritchie were to score a goal he would reach 20+ fantasy points for just $7,100 that puts him as a potential cash play if you can find other players around him.

Newcastle United Secondary Plays

Jesus Gamez, $4,000 FD, $4,000 DK – Gamez scored 9 fantasy points last week and his price dropped by $100 this week in a better matchup. He’s playing at home this week Gamez is a new signing with this squad and is very cheap for defense that could play well into your lineups given his potential with filling the stats sheet on both FD and DK.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, $7,000 FD, $7,400 DK – I had a really hard time finding anybody on this team to consider without feeling foolish. Shaqiri plays a much different role on the Swiss national team than he does with Stoke and that leaves people confused as to his potential for fantasy. He’s a playe

Watford vs Manchester City

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Watford						Manchester City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				9.55						1.359
				D W D W						W D W W
				2-2-0						3-1-0
12.00	3.50	11.25	7.75	14.00	20.50	16.25	7.00	7.50	3.75	24.25	8.75
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney, Gray		Holebas		Holebas, Cleverley, Watson, Capoue, Carrillo

Watford face a tough matchup this weekend when they face a Manchester City that seems to be figuring things out early in the season. City have come away with 9 goals last week, five against Liverpool and four against Feyenoord. They didn’t seem to be bothered by playing an away game in the Netherlands and this week a trip to Watford shouldn’t affect their performance either. The only problem is that it is hard to figure out where the City production will come from. They have a shared front line between Jesus and Aguero, they are sitting in front of a pair of midfielders that are both good options, but neither is a great option in Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva and overall a 4-2-2-2 formation doesn’t do well for fantasy prediction.

On the other side, Watford have had one of the early breakout players in Richarlison, and while he’s been consistent at drawing fouls, and he’s got shots off recently I don’t trust that he’ll be able to repeat that sort of performance again this week. Watford does have the benefit of being at home and if they sit back and absorb the attacks they could get a counter attack goal and their defenders get a boost in defensive stats.

Watford Top Plays

Heurelho Gomes, $5,500 FD, $3,900 DK – Gomes should face plenty of shots, and he’s at home. It makes for a simple recipe for me as my top GK play of the week. Gomes is reliable as a keeper in general and facing a City team could get lit up, but he’s more likely to make the saves and keep his team in the game for longer. Gomes is my cash game goalkeeper.

Watford Secondary Plays

Richarlison, $7,500 FD, $5,400 DK – Taking a forward on a home team that is an underdog may be one play that I don’t make often enough on my teams, but there is merit for Richarlison this week beyond his ability to seemingly draw fouls. I think the foul drawing will come to an end soon, but he may still get some shots and that puts him as a tournament option and not a cash play.

Manchester City Top Plays

Gabriel Jesus, $10,500 FD, $9,500 DK – When faced with a choice between Jesus and Aguero I’ll go with Gabriel as a more exciting forward who has more potential than Aguero. While Aguero can still come back and score a hat-trick, Jesus has scored the more exciting goals and looked more dynamic on this team in their 4-2-2-2 formation. That formation reality is what’s forcing me to choose one of him and Aguero. In my case, I’ll go with Jesus.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Kevin De Bruyne, $10,500 FD, $10,300 DK – De Bruyne and Silva are splitting the set pieces. They alternate between short corners and long corners that it takes away from KDB’s cash playability, but he still can be brilliant in his play as evidenced last weekend where he threaded a needle and recorded an assist in their big win against City. I like his dynamicism more than Silva’s so that’s why he’s my play of choice.

West Bromwich Albion vs West Ham

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Bromwich Albion						West Ham
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
										3.39
				W W D L						L L L W
				2-1-1						1-0-3
11.50	3.00	14.25	6.75	24.50	22.75	13.00	3.75	15.50	8.50	19.75	21.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
						Noble, Lanzini, Carroll, Arnautovic		Noble, Arnautovic, Lanzini, Cresswell		Lanzini, Noble, Arnautovic, Cresswell

Tony Pulis’ side came away from last weekend with an unexpected 3-1 loss to Brighton in what should have been a better performance from the Baggies. West Brom did fall prey to Pascal Gross and this week Pulis’ side has an opportunity to bring things back to the good side when they host West Ham. West Ham have the most porous defense so far on the season having conceded 10 goals so far. Fortunately for the Hammers, they shouldnt be punished too severely since West Brom are not a very strong offensive team either.

Ultimately, this match won’t feature a lot of fantasy options though there may be a value play here or there worth considering.

West Bromwich Albion Top Plays

Chris Brunt, $6,000 FD, $6,100 DK – Brunt didn’t play after the international break, but he should be back this week. Him and Phillips both carry the same upside and very similar floors. West Brom likes to spread the ball out to both wings and both players seem to provide similar potential. Brunt is my choice from this team as a winger as he was playing excellent prior to the international break. And if you include the two matches over the break he has three matches in a row with 10+ DK points including two matches with 10+ crosses.

West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays

Jay Rodriguez, $7,500 FD, $5,300 DK – Rodriguez didn’t play well last match as he had minimal impact. He also played out of position on the left wing and ended up with just 31 touches, the fewest of any of his midfield teammates. If Rodriguez starts as a striker in a 4-1-4-1 once again then I like his chances to score a goal at a cheap price of just $5,300 on DK.

West Ham Top Plays

Aaron Cresswell, $5,000 FD, $4,000 DK – Cresswell had a unique match last time out with 19 crosses and 18 fantasy points for West Ham. He was on set pieces and open play crosses. If he keeps the job this week with Arnautovic available once again for selection, then he’ll be one of the more important value plays on the week for both cash and tournaments. It will be hard to tell from just looking at the team sheet whether Cresswell is the set piece taker or not. I intend to watch for coach speak pre-game to see if he hints at anything regarding the Arnautovic role for this match.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Andy Carroll, $6,500 FD, $5,900 DK – Carroll took 6 shots last week for West Ham and failed to score, this week if he tries to repeat that feat he might find himself on the scoresheet. Of course, Tony Pulis has his teams prepared with solid defense so it’s tough to trust if he’s going to get these same opportunities. Carroll is a decent tournament play this week. I don’t think he’ll be on many teams (and probably not on mine) unless roster construction really works in his favor.

Tottenham vs Swansea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Tottenham						Swansea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.25						14
				W L D W						D L W L
				2-1-1						1-1-2
19.75	5.75	10.25	8.25	24.75	20.00	6.50	1.75	19.50	10.00	16.50	24.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Kane, Janssen, Alli, Lamela		Eriksen, Lamela, Kane		Eriksen, Davies, Lamela, Son, Trippier		Bony, Abraham		Carroll		Carroll, Routledge

Tottenham are an interesting team to consider for this slate since they are the late slate and they contain an equal amount of superstar plays to Manchester City and Liverpool and just like City and Liverpool, the players are coming off a short rest so squad rotation is in play here as well. Moreover, them being the late match means that taking one of these players means you’ll end up sacrificing a roster spot in the early games in hopes that one of the Tottenham players you pick ends up recording 20+ fantasy points since that’s what you’ll need from them in order to fade the early game superstars. The question for this slate will be which 9K+ players do you want to build your roster around and which ones can you afford to skip out on and hope your selections at least match their output if not outpace them.

It won’t do us good to completely ignore the opponent in this slate, Swansea are an improving squad with several players that have shown an ability to get results in recent weeks. Though, this won’t be a week that Swansea can really deliver a big result given their away status and Tottenham being one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Tottenham Top Plays

Harry Kane, $12,000 FD, $11,000 DK – Lots of people are going to look for Kane to be their starting forward on their teams this weekend as the England forward looks to assert himself in September after failing to score any goals in August across all competitions. He had 30 shots across all Tottenham matches and no EPL goals to show for it. He did score midweek twice against Dortmund and will try to carry that over against the Swans. I’m starting my teams with him and hopefully he stays on my teams despite his high price tag of $11K on DK and $12K on FD.

Christian Eriksen, $11,500 FD, $10,600 DK – I expect that Eriksen and Alli will be very popular midfield options. I like Eriksen better because of his set piece duty and his ability to strike one in from outside the box. That does add a bit of tournament element to his game and makes him a very viable option for this week in which Tottenham are expected to score some goals.

Tottenham Secondary Plays

Ben Davies, $7,500 FD, $6,400 DK – Davies was one of my favorite plays the last two gamedays for Tottenham and he’s come through for me last weekend with 10 crosses and an assist. This matchup should prove much easier for him against Swansea and he’ll once again be called upon to roam up and down the left flank to try to break down the defense and potentially score a goal or assist on one.

Swansea Top Plays

Tammy Abraham, $7,000 FD, $4,800 DK – Look for Tammy Abraham to try to prove himself against one of the top teams in the league. The Chelsea loanee wants to show his home club that he can deliver results against a big club and a match against the Spurs. Scoring a goal here would go well in his resume and the England under-21 will be itching to get on the score sheet here.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Alfie Mawson, $6,000 FD, $2,700 DK – For FanDuel, taking Mawson would be great as Mawson can fill up the defensive statsheet against a team like Tottenham with clearances, tackles, interceptions and blocks. I wouldn’t use Mawson on DK though since he won’t get much fantasy appeal for offensive stats.