EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 6

The Premier League is back again this weekend with Matchweek 6. This week we have seven matches on the main slate on Saturday and almost the entire Premier League is on short rest with the EFL Cup being played last week and the Champions League being played next week. That leaves all these teams scrambling to find players that aren’t exhausted and ones that can produce the win for their sides.

The Grind Down will break down game by game on Saturday and give you an overview of what each team is looking to do. It will also attempt to find players to pick from each team that have the potential to be heavily involved in the action and could be in a good situation to score a goal or at least gather up a bunch of fantasy points. My analysis is focused on DraftKings and FanDuel, but the analysis can also be applied to season long and Yahoo contests. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me either in the comments or on Twitter or via PM here on this site. If you know of a way to make the Grind Down better for YOU then let me know and I’ll see if it can be done.

As always, be sure to be online on Saturday morning when the lineups come out as there can and will be some unexpected changes that could change the entire complexion of the competition. Good luck.

Burnley vs Huddersfield

Burnley Huddersfield
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
121 288
W L D W D W W D L D
2-2-1 2-2-1
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
10.40 2.60 22.60 11.40 17.60 27.20 11.40 4.00 12.60 7.80 24.60 18.00
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Vokes, Wood, Barnes, Walters Brady, Arfield, Hendrick Brady, Arfield, Defour, Gudmundsson Löwe, Mooy Mooy, Ince, Löwe Mooy, Ince, Palmer, Hefele

The first game of the week is between Burnley and Huddersfield and it could be a sneaky one. Both these teams have had some very positive performances to start the season and it’s hard to tell what they’ll do this week. Burnely is the more ““mature”“ team in the premier league, and they’ve had some success. Last season they had an almost immecable home record that saw them secure their spot in the premier league for another season. This season, they’ve slipped a bit at home, but they haven’t been playing badly. They’ve only played twice with one win and one loss and the loss was to West Bromwich. What separates Burnley from any other team however is that they’ve recorded the most blocks of any team throughout the premier league so far. In fact, they block 45.1% of the opponent shots where the average for EPL is 27.5% blocked shots. This will be important when we recognize the importance of considering Burnley’s goalkeeper. Oh, you didn’t know? Tom Heaton is out for a while and so he’s no longer the automatic fantasy option at GK if you’re a season long player. In fact, I think I’ve recommended him about 40% of the time that he’s been an eligible goal keeper in this same spot. His replacement, Nick Pope is a good replacement. This week he’s probably one of my choices for goalkeeper if I thought Huddersfield would take shots.

Speaking of Huddersfield, they are among the bottom half in terms of shots taken this season and they don’t really convert a large portion of those shots onto the target and even fewer into the goal. That means that taking players from this game is risky for fantasy as you won’t increase your goal upside. Combined, they two teams average 22 shots a game and just 6 shots on target and 2 goals a game. Overall, there aren’t a lot of fantasy options that will be popular here outside of a play or two that I will discuss right here.”

Burnley Top Plays

Robbie Brady, $8,000 FD, $6,500 DK – Brady is the first option for free kicks and corners for this Burnley team making him a direct option for cash games. His price makes him almost a value option you can use to fit in 2 9K+ players on DraftKings. His potential makes him a good cash play along with some ceiling potential for tournaments.

Burnley Secondary Plays

Chris Wood, $9,500 FD, $5,900 DK – Wood is playing as a lone striker at home on a team that is favored to win in a close matchup. Huddersfield have played well this season in the Premier League, and so Wood won’t have an easy waltz through here, and he’ll have to earn his goals. But I think he can score a goal in this one and for him to continue his goal scoring prowess that has him at 3 goals in 5 matches.

Huddersfield Top Plays

Aaron Mooy, $9,000 FD, $7,400 DK – The only thing I don’t like about Mooy is his price and that makes him a contrarian pick. Nobody will select a midfielder from Huddlesfield on the road for $7,400 on DK and $9,000 on FD. That is actually what makes me like Mooy even better. He’s got the potential for a 20 point game, and while his style is more suited for cash games, his price makes him a tournament option only.

Huddersfield Secondary Plays

Abdelhamid Sabiri, $5,000 FD, $3,500 DK – In his first start last week, the 20 year old newcomer to the Premier League recorded an assist and 51 touches for Huddersfield. Sabiri is still priced as a minimum play but he’s lining up behind the striker for this squad and he’s actually getting most of his touches in the opponents half and on the left wing though he did drift to the right wing a little. He did have two key passes when playing on the right wing. He’s a great value play in all formats and I expect he’ll be on a lot of sharp lineups this week. I wouldn’t expect an assist once again from him but he does have the potential, and 5-8 points should be an expected outcome from him if the game flows as expected.

Everton vs Bournemouth

Everton Bournemouth
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
-150 482
W D L L L L L L L W
1-1-3 1-0-4
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
8.40 2.00 15.40 8.80 15.20 22.80 9.20 2.40 16.00 10.60 17.20 17.60
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Baines, Sigurdsson, Rooney, Barkley, Mirallas Sigurdsson, Barkley, Rooney, Mirallas, Baines Sigurdsson, Mirallas, Rooney, Baines,  Barkley Wilson, Defoe, King, Stanislas, Afobe, Arter Arter, Fraser Surman, Stanislas, Daniels, Fraser, Arter, Pugh, Ibe

“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated” ~The Toffees.

Plenty of people are ready to write off this Everton squad after their less than positive run of matches that saw them lose their last four matches before winning against Sunderland in the league cup midweek. The last four matches prior to this saw them get outscored by opponents 12-0, including a 3-0 loss at home to Tottenham. They also had to travel to Italy to play Atalanta in the Europa League and that saw them lose 3-0.

The other side of this equation isn’t much better, Bournemouth hasn’t been a very good offensive team this season either as they currently sit at 3 goals scored on the season and zero away from home. This week I expect this match will be a tough one for Bournemouth as they travel to an Everton team that is better than them but performing way below expectations. Everton is going to try to break the mold and secure a few goals here to jump start their season. There won’t be many players here that I take in cash games, but for tournaments there should be some players to consider especially given their relative prices.

One other thing to consider is that Bournemouth played an extra time match with Brighton in the EFL cup. Some players likely are tired and will look to rest or may not be at full strength in this one, so be on the look out for squad rotation.”

Everton Top Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, $7,500 FD, $8,400 DK – The exception to the rule here is of course, Gylfi Sigurdsson, who was a routine cash game player to consider during his time with Swansea. Since his big money move to Everton he hasn’t really been able to show us that cash game form with fantasy numbers that haven’t eclipsed double digits since his arrival at Merseyside. He’s still sharing corners and free kicks with Baines and Rooney so I don’t think he has quite the same floor he did back with Swansea, but if I had to pick one player to shine statistically in this matchup, it would be Sigurdsson.

Everton Secondary Plays

Wayne Rooney, $9,000 FD, $7,700 DK – Rooney scored the only two goals for Everton so far this season in the EPL and he’s probably as frustrated as any of the fans watching the team flounder. They need to get things going again and start to win games. This means that Rooney will be taking some shots this week and I expect him to try to help his team win. This makes him a good tournament option and him playing at home provides enough fire power to get a goal to get the Toffees out of their spiral.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Junior Stanislas, $5,500 FD, $7,200 DK -Stanislas got the start in the midweek with Bournemouth in the EFL Cup and he came off at 60 minutes. Granted part of the reason for that is that he’s coming off injury and probably isn’t in match shape yet, but the other part to consider is that he’s fresher than the rest of the team especially his main competition for set pieces, Ryan Fraser who played 116 minutes.

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace

Manchester City Crystal Palace
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
-627 1970
W D W W W L L L L L
4-1-0 0-0-5
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
18.60 7.60 7.40 4.00 24.60 9.00 14.20 2.80 11.20 7.00 22.80 13.80
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Milivojevic,  Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham Milivojevic, Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt, Townsend, Kaikai

Manchester City have been one of the best teams in the young season and the players on this team have clicked together and formed a cohesive unit that should challenge for the title when the dust settles and the curtain is drawn on the 2017/18 season. In the meantime, they have to go through the paper meche that is this Crystal Palace squad. After firing their manager and bringing in Roy Hodgson to manage the squad, this Palace team failed to score last weekend in the premier league to extend their scoreless streak to 5 matches to open the season. The team finally scored a goal in the midweek in the EFL cup match against Huddersfield, with Bakary Sako doing the honors. The team still faces an uphill battle with a trip to Manchester City on the horizon.

I expect this match to be very one sided, I expect that possession will lean heavily in favor of City with Palace trying hard to get a counter attacking play to score a goal to perhaps escape the Etihad with a stolen point or three. This is a game where many people will try to stack the home team, but I think there could be some tough decisions to be made especially with City playing a lineup with 2 strikers and with Sane back in the mix, it adds another layer of complexity in your team selection.”

Manchester City Top Plays

Kevin De Bruyne, $11,500 FD, $10,400 DK – With two assists in his last two matches, KDB is looking sharp once again. He’s finally getting the space to play his forwards and with enough options that can finish on the team, he’s got a buffett of forwards who can finish from Aguero, Jesus, Silva, and Sane. I expect KDB to be the highest owned large price player in cash games.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Sergio Aguero, $13,000 FD, $11,000 DK – After scoring a hat-trick last week, plenty will be on Aguero. Some will argue that maybe it’s time to take a look at Gabriel Jesus since it’s his “turn”. For those that didn’t get to watch the demolishion of Watford at the hands of Aguero, you would have noticed two very key things. From the first City attack, the ball seemed to gravitate towards Aguero, and when the ball didn’t go his way, he chased it down and demanded it, and shot it. Aguero was on a mission to score goals and command his superiority in the City front line. Jesus was subbed off and while he did score a goal, he didn’t look to be truly involved in the attack. I will target Aguero this week and will wait and see on whether Jesus finds his groove again, though I’m certain it won’t be long

*Leroy Sane, $9,000 FD, $7,300 DK*Sane scored a brace in the EFL cup and if he gets a start again as expected he might be the hidden gem in this week’s tournaments. He’s likely to play the full match since Pep Guardiola may choose to save Jesus and Aguero for the Champions League match in midweek. That puts Sane as a potentially cheap option to get exposure to this City offense that has been on fire this season so far.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Luka Milivojevic, $5,000 FD, $3,000 DK – Milivojevic is the more defensive minded central midfielder on this Palace squad, and under Frank De Boer was the main penalty kick taker. It’s unclear if he’d continue in that role with the new manager, but he’s a good bet to rack up defensive stats in this matchup against City. This puts him as a decently viable option on DK for just $3k, but a much better option on FanDuel for just $5K where defensive stats are heavily valued.

Southampton vs Manchester United

Southampton Manchester United
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
424 -130
D W D L W W W W D W
2-2-1 4-1-0
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
14.20 2.80 12.40 8.40 21.40 17.80 18.80 7.00 8.40 5.00 27.20 13.40
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Austin, Tadic, Gabbiadini, Bertrand, Ward-Prowse, Davis Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Yoshida Ward-Prowse, Tadic,  Davis, Bertrand

We have three teams this week that are considered ““home underdogs”“, Southampton is the first of these teams. In case you aren’t aware, my choice for goalkeeper is almost always to pay down for the spot especially given the volatility that comes with the goalkeeper spot. I’d rather take the risk that my sub $4K goalkeeper get shelled and not make any saves (very unlikely) for the sake of $1K to $1.5K savings that I can use elsewhere. Conventional wisdom tells us that home goalkeepers should have the best chance at coming away with a 5 save night and potentially a clean sheet. This season so far has really defied conventional wisdom, but it did provide us with a blue print to use going forward. Of the 21 matches in the first four weeks that have a goalkeeper record at least 5 assists, 14 of them have come against a top 6 opponent (Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham). The small sample size of four matchdays skews the numbers a little, but it bears reason to consider any goalkeeper going against a top 6 team for the potential for saves.

All of that being the case, I’m not taking a single player from Southampton. Nor can I in good conscious recommend a player from Southampton. They could very well be a team that wins somebody a GPP this week, but the uncertainty with this squad and the randomness that comes with their set pieces and general playing style leaves me no choice but to avoid them altogether. Fraser Forster is not a goalkeeper I trust anymore, and against Manchester United, I think we’ll see something closer to 12 shots on target, 6 saves and 6 goals than we would see something closer to 6 saves and 1 goal against.

That leaves us with just Manchester United, and while the Red Devils are playing away from home, I like the team this week as a squad to take some players from. I think they have 2-3 goals in them, so Lukaku and one of Rashford or Martial and maybe a full back on one team, though with the abundance of options you may not need to do that this week.”

Southampton Top Plays

None, they’re all dead to me

Manchester United Top Plays

Henrikh Mkhitaryan, $10,500 FD, $8,300 DK – Mkhitaryan is one of the players on this team you can trust for non-goal dependent results. He ended up with 11 crosses against Everton and has three assists on the season and looking to add more to his tally. I think this is a year that he really figures things out long term in the Mourinho system and I will look to add him to my lineups every chance I get where I see a positive matchup.

Antonio Valencia, $6,500 FD, $5,200 DK – Valencia was on corners last week and if he starts again adds another player you can take from this team that may allow you to load up on Manchester United. Of course, this all depends on whether he gets the start or whether Mourinho rotates his full backs in anticipation of the Champions League match they have this week. Either way, if Valencia doesn’t start, I’ll be happy to take Blind in his place.

Manchester United Secondary Plays

Romelu Lukaku, $12,000 FD, $10,600 DK – Lukaku is going to be mentioned every week it seems like as long as he’s performing at his peak. The young Belgian forward is very capable of producing eye catching numbers this season and is already on his way to doing so with his torrid start. He has a goal every start so far for Manchester United except for one, and I think he may find himself on the score sheet once again this match.

Stoke vs Chelsea

Stoke Chelsea
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
503 -160
L W D D L L W W W D
1-2-2 3-1-1
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
11.80 3.20 13.80 8.20 17.40 24.60 15.00 5.00 10.80 6.20 19.20 19.60
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Adam, Shaqiri Adam, Shaqiri Shaqiri, Jese, Adam, Allen Hazard, Fabregas, Willian, Morata Alonso, Luiz, Willian, Fabregas,Drinkwater Willian, Fabregas, Pedro, Hazard,Drinkwater

Analysing this game is like playing 3-D chess. At first I thought Chelsea was going to kill Stoke and I wanted to write up all the Chelsea players. Then I realized that Stoke has played exceptionally well this season especially at home where they’ve beaten Arsenal and drew with Manchester United, this led me to come off Chelsea a little bit and favor Stoke to put one up on Chelsea, especially given the Blues’ upcoming midweek match with Atletico and their sometimes frustrating style of play on the road against a weaker opponent where they don’t really push too hard to score goals but rather settle for possession and try to find a hole clinically or wait for the opponent to make a mistake. This ultimately led me to come back ON the Chelsea side as I saw a scenario where Hazard comes back to start and propels this team to a 3-1 road win at Stoke with a Brace from an unlikely winger like Victor Moses. Of course, now that I’m writing this, I’m tempted to look to Stoke once more and see that they have the potential to score twice against this Chelsea squad especially if Conte rolls out a lineup that isn’t his main one in an attempt to conserve energy for the Champions League.

So where do I stand? I think Stoke absorb a lot of shots. The only two times that Jack Butland made 5+ saves were at home against top 6 opponents, this match fits that bill, but Chelsea have only forced their opponent to make 5+ saves once and that was against Everton. This match will feature possession dominated by Chelsea, and ultimately 5-10 shots in total. Chelsea walks away with a narrow 1-0 win and buckles down to get 3 points.

Stoke Top Plays

Jack Butland, $5,000 FD, $3,800 DK – I mentioned Butland in the game breakdown, and I stand by it. He’s going to be one of the better goalkeeper options going Saturday but beware of Chelsea’s tendency to take smart shots, which limits the goalkeeper’s upside. So while he’s not my top goalkeeper, I think there are very valid arguments to taking him.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, $7,500 FD, $6,900 DK – Shaqiri is on set pieces for Stoke, and those will be some of their few chances to score against Chelsea, I expect that Shaqiri will come close a couple of times and if things line up just right, he could walk away with a goal for the Potters.

Chelsea Top Plays

Willian, $9,000 FD, $7,400 DK – I suspect that Willian will get plenty of opportunities this week with Pedro questionable and Champions League on the horizon. Hazard will not be risked too much and Fabregas likely will get some rest (maybe coming off the bench or leaving early). This leaves Willian as one of the likely set piece takers for this team and a crossing winger who will be trying to spread the play out wide to stretch the Stoke defense thin and try to create opportunities for Morata in the middle.

Marcos Alonso, $7,500 FD, $6,200 DK – Chelsea will have to rely on the full backs to push forward in this one to spread the game out and create opportunities to score. In comes Alonso who, if he starts, should be a key component for this team’s ambitions to come away with three points. If he doesn’t start, then Zappacosta or Moses are equally equiped to getting 10+ DK points off peripherary points.

Chelsea Secondary Plays

Alvaro Morata, $11,000 FD, $8,600 DK – Morata loves scoring headers, in fact all his Chelsea goals scored so far are through headers. Stoke have conceded six goals so far this season through headers, and this has the makings of the perfect storm. I think Morata is in a good spot this week and probably would be a cash play consideration if he were playing at home. Moreover, with the Diego Costa saga finally done with, maybe Morata wants to show the fans that they won’t miss the disgruntled Spaniard by showcasing a performance this week.

Swansea vs Watford

Swansea Watford
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
139 227
D L W L D D W D W L
1-2-2 2-2-1
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
6.00 1.40 20.80 10.00 15.00 27.60 11.00 3.00 14.60 9.80 13.20 21.60
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Bony, Abraham Carroll Carroll, Routledge Deeney, Gray Holebas Holebas, Cleverley, Watson, Capoue, Carrillo

This match is another one that many people will overlook because the teams aren’t big names. However, there is potential in this one to end with 3 or 4 goals total when it’s all said and done. Of course, there is also potential that the match ends at 0-0 and nobody leaves happy. Which scenario plays out really depends on which midfield for either team shows up. If Swansea’s best performance is repeated here, then they could come away with a decent performance showcasing what life after Siggy is like. On the other side, Watford are going to look to recover from the onslaught by Manchester City last weekend where they conceded 6 goals to the Citizens at home. This match is being played in Wales, so Swansea will have the home advantage and that gives some of these players a leg up.

Watford have two wins this season and both of them came on the road, and both by the same scoreline 2-0 against Southampton and Bournemouth. They could easily repeat the feat this week once more, especially with Swansea having lost both their home matches without scoring a goal. I do think there are some fantasy options regardless of which team you decide to back in this one. This is not a match that I would take players from both sides and hope for fireworks, but instead, you have to choose a side.

Swansea Top Plays

Lukasz Fabianski, $5,500 FD, $5,000 DK – Fabianski is one of the better goalkeepers in terms of performance this season so far. He’s facing a Watford team that should be offensive in their approach to this match. The result will be an open matchup that could feature plenty of shots on goal. With Fabianski being at home and also a slight favorite, I can see him getting a decent fantasy score.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Tom Carroll, $7,000 FD, $4,700 DK – If this match were to end up being a back and forth, then Tom Carroll makes for a great option as a cash play given his set piece responsibility and his ability to take corners and free kicks for this squad. Expect Carroll to be active and a big part of the matchup. Also, consider Renato Sanchez on FanDuel as he’s been playing a deeper role on this team and he has the potential to score a goal as well as we saw with the Portugal national team in the Euros.

Tammy Abraham, $7,500 FD, $6,000 DK – Tammy Abraham is still a personal favorite of mine, I think he’s going to get opportunities to score goals and I think he gets roughly 10 goals this season. He has 1 so far in the Premier League and one in the League cup. This is a good spot for him to get goal number 2 in the EPL.

Watford Top Plays

Richarlison, $8,000 FD, $6,100 DK – The Brazilian has been in all our sites this season so far. He’s consistently drawing fouls and creating opportunities for his teammates and himself. His speed and creativity allow for him to trick defenders and that skill level does draw a lot of whistles from the referees. I don’t think you can count on Fouls Drawn as a periphary statistic that is repeatable, but he’s capable of producing 5+ foul drawn matches on a regular basis it seems. Unless the referees start swallowing their whistles with him, I don’t see the numbers dropping. Beyond the fouls, Richarlison is very active on the left wing and he’s been pushing the defenses to make mistakes and while he’s only scored a single goal so far this season, but the youngster (only 20) has plenty to give and he may prove able to deliver this week.

Watford Secondary Plays

Abdoulaye Doucoure, $8,500 FD, $3,000 DK – well, here’s a $3k punt on DK that you can take and hope that he scores another goal. Doucoure has scored twice this season already and is looking for a third. He is good for 1-3 shots a game, usually from the outside. More recently, he’s tended to drift to the left side of the pitch to play closer to Richarlison who seems to pull defenders towards him and Doucoure has benefited from that relationship. Doucoure doesn’t advance as much but in a matchup with Swansea, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets close to 100 touches in this match with close to 40-50 of them in the opponent’s half. If he gets the touches he might be on the end of an assists or goal.

Leicester vs Liverpool

Leicester Liverpool
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
315 -105
L W L L D D W W L D
1-1-3 2-2-1
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
9.80 2.80 17.00 8.80 15.40 26.80 19.40 8.00 7.80 5.60 19.00 11.00
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Vardy, Mahrez, Slimani, Ulloa Mahrez, Fuchs, Albrighton, Gray Mahrez, Albrighton, Fuchs, James, Gray Firmino, Milner, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho Henderson, Milner, Coutinho, Sturridge, Alexander-Arnold Milner, Henderson, Coutinho, Firmino, Chamberlain, Alexander-Arnold

The final match of the week is Leicester vs Liverpool. Liverpool are coming in after two forgettable weeks that have seen the team lose twice and draw twice in the span of 11 days, including a 2-0 loss in the EFL cup to this same Leicester team. Of course, both teams rotated a good portion of their squads so the match on Tuesday will bear little resemblance to the one on Saturday, but it’s a good indicator as to which players we can expect to be fresh and which ones to potentially avoid. Another wrinkle to consider is Liverpool has a Champions League match coming up this week against Spartak Moscow IN Moscow so Klopp will be looking to secure a win early and substitute players out to rest them up for the long flight to Russia. I expect that Craig Shakespeare will look to capitalize on Liverpool’s busy schedule and try to repeat their Tuesday cup win.

Leicester Top Plays

Kasper Schmeichel, $5,500 FD, $4,300 DK – There are plenty of very good goalkeepers in the EPL and Schmeichel is usually one of the best every week. This week he can take advantage of a Liverpool team that can struggle to convert goals sometimes and with Coutinho back in the mix, Schmeichel will face plenty of out of the box shots as Coutinho loves to let them loose. Expect the Dane to be peppered with shots and to do his best to not concede, though I don’t know if a clean sheet is in his future this weekend, but he’s capable of at least making it interesting.

Marc Albrighton, $6,500 FD, $5,500 DK – Albrighton’s price makes him an interesting cash option. At $5,500 on DK he’s one of the cheaper corner kick takers on the slate, but against Liverpool, I don’t know how much of the ball he’s going to see. Nevertheless, at such a cheap price tag, I think he can produce some good results and 10 points should be enough to satisfy his salary.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Jamie Vardy, $8,500 FD, $5,900 DK – Vardy loves to show up in big games against big teams. I am still not convinced Mahrez has his head on straight after the non-move during the transfer window. Mahrez was pouting and while he did get some touches last week in the matchup with Huddersfield, he didn’t really impress. For that, my big name from Leicester to consider this week is Vardy. Liverpool have shown to be poor in the back and are susceptible to mistakes. Vardy is very good at capitalizing on mistakes, also, he’s going to be very low owned in this matchup on this slate and would be an excellent contrarian play for tournaments.

Liverpool Top Plays

Roberto Firmino, $10,000 FD, $8,000 DK – If Firmino starts on the wing then he’s immediately not on my radar as he is not effective at all when out on the wing. If he does start at the center forward spot in a 4-3-3 then he’s a much more intruiging option for me against a Leicester team that will be under pressure a lot. I like all of the Liverpool front line this week but it’s hard to know who’s going to play a full 90 and who’s getting subbed off in preparation for the UCL clash in the midweek.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, $6,000 FD, $4,300 DK – Because of the uncertainty in the rotation, Trent Alexander-Arnold is on my radar on defense. At just $4,300 he’s a very good option to consider as a full back who’s going to pressure the defense and be part of an attack. Especially in the late game I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes overlooked.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

Philippe Coutinho, $10,000 FD, $9,600 DK – Coutinho could be a cash option if you can find a reason to convince yourself that he’s going to play a full 90 minutes. I have not found that reason and thus, he’s a tournament option only. He’s going to take 5+ shots, most of them from out of the box and every once in a while will catch a goalkeeper by surprise and score a spectacular goal. I don’t know if that will happen this week, but it might. He also has the potential to take set pieces, but again, that’s not a guarantee with Milner, and Salah as options in that department as well. I’m not mentioning Salah this week even though he’s one of my favorite players for tournaments because I don’t think he’s going to score a goal EVERY time he plays, so I’ll hope that this is the slate he doesn’t score a goal in. Otherwise, I like the entire Liverpool front line as they could all get a score, but Coutinho is my second choice ahead of Salah.

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.