EPL Grind Down Matchweek 7

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-10-01 10:19:07

The Grind Down will break down game by game on Saturday and give you an overview of what each team is looking to do. It will also attempt to find players to pick from each team that have the potential to be heavily involved in the action and could be in a good situation to score a goal or at least gather up a bunch of fantasy points. My analysis is focused on DraftKings and FanDuel, but the analysis can also be applied to season long and Yahoo contests. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to me either in the comments or on Twitter or via PM here on this site. If you know of a way to make the Grind Down better for YOU then let me know and I’ll see if it can be done.

As always, be sure to be online on Saturday morning when the lineups come out as there can and will be some unexpected changes that could change the entire complexion of the competition. Good luck.

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Manchester United						Crystal Palace
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-550						1700
				W W W D W W						L L L L L L
				5-1-0						0-0-6
17.17	6.50	9.33	5.50	24.17	16.33	12.67	2.33	13.50	9.33	20.83	15.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
						Milivojevic, Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham		Milivojevic, Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt		Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt, Townsend, Kaikai

One of our go to matches this week will be Manchester United. This has been a team that we can successfully target for DFS every week and this week won’t be any different. In fact, they’re facing a team that has been dismal so far this season both offensively and defensively which makes United a great team to consider stacking this week. Crystal Palace so far this season have gone through one coach already, they also rank in the bottom five in goal chances conceded inside the box, and are the second worst defensive team away from home in terms of goal attempts conceded. United meanwhile are yet to concede a goal at home in the Premier League this season and the only goal they conceded was in the League Cup against Burton and the goal came against the backup goalkeeper Pereira in the 91st minute.

I expect this matchup to be fairly one sided with United threatening constantly and for Crystal Palace to try hard to come away with a few good moments of possession, however, it will be tough to see them coming away with a win in this one.

Manchester United Top Plays

Romelu Lukaku, $13,000 FD, $11,300 DK – Obviously one of the more obvious plays on the slate. Some people will build their lineups around him, and others will choose to fade him and focus their lineup builds elsewhere. My opinion is that Lukaku is a very tough player to fade on this slate because there is no other player of his caliber that has this high of a potential this week. If you were to play this slate 1000 times, then Lukaku would come out the highest scoring player more often than any other player on the slate. The matchup is perfect and all other high dollar options are either not available or in tough matchups. Lukaku is the figure that makes the most sense. The only rationale to fading him would be to hope he doesn’t score any goals for United and that you can make up the scoring elsewhere.

Anthony Martial, $9,000 FD, $7,700 DK – If you want to get away from Lukaku and avoid him because of high ownership, then maybe pivoting to Martial or Rashford would be the right way to go. Martial is the cheaper option but he had to get subbed off in the UCL fixture because of an injury scare. He’s questionable and is likely to be available for selection, but his start isn’t guaranteed. If he doesn’t start then Rashford would be my selection as a secondary United forward to select from.

Manchester United Secondary Plays

Antonio Valencia, $6,500 FD, $5,600 DK – Valencia or Young would make for excellent fantasy options most weeks and especially with United being so dominant offensively in recent weeks. Either one would make for a good choice in this system where Mourinho played with three central defenders and put two wing backs out wide allowing them to push forward. In this case, Valencia and Young were both worthy of selection. There should be plenty of goals to go around this week and that makes all United options intriguing.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Mamadou Sakho, $5,500 FD, $2,600 DK – It’s hard to pick a player from a side that is expected to lose and lose badly. Sakho makes for a good defensive option though as he’s likely to get his feet on some tackles, interceptions and have a lot of opportunities to get defensive stats. That of course, makes him a valuable option on FanDuel more than DraftKings. Look for Sakho to be a high scorer this week in just periphary statistics on the FanDuel scoring system.

Bournemouth vs Leicester

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Bournemouth						Leicester
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				180						163
				L L L L W L						L W L L D L
				1-0-5						1-1-4
9.00	2.67	15.33	10.33	17.83	18.67	10.17	3.50	18.00	9.50	17.17	25.17
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Wilson, Defoe, King, Stanislas, Afobe, Arter		Arter, Fraser		Surman, Stanislas, Daniels, Fraser, Arter, Pugh, Ibe		Vardy, Mahrez, Slimani, Ulloa		Mahrez, Fuchs, Albrighton, Gray		Mahrez, Albrighton, Fuchs, James, Gray

This matchup between Bournemouth and Leicester is between two teams that have struggled mightily to start the season. Leicester has lost four of its first six matches, though all those losses came against teams that finished in the top six last season and while Leicester didn’t look that great against them, they didn’t look as bad as their record implies at this moment.

Their opponent is Bournemouth, who have lost five of their opening six matchups, though they didn’t play as many top teams as Leicester did. Overall, this should be a close match between two teams. Bournemouth are at home but with Leicester having the better caliber players, the matchup ends up being close to even.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Junior Stanislas, $7,000 FD, $7,400 DK – Stanislas came back from injury in the League cup and made his first Premier League start last weekend where he sent in six crosses and finished with 8 DK points. Stanislas provides some much needed width for the Cherries and can add creativity to the lineup. I expect tht he’s going to approach double digits on DK and 20 points on FD, and while his price is a bit prohibitive, he’s the best option on this Bournemouth squad.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Charlie Daniels, $6,000 FD, $5,100 DK – Three straight weeks in double digits on DK makes Daniels almost a reliable option on this Bournemouth squad. The team has struggled to come up with results and a matchup with Leicester doesn’t make things easy, but if players like Daniels step up, the team can finish with a win in this one. Daniels is a potential low owned defensive option who steps up and gets involved in the attack.

Leicester Top Plays

Marc Albrighton, $6,500 FD, $5,700 DK -Albrighton takes free kicks and set pieces for this squad and has usually be a reliable option for crosses where he’s averaged close to 5 crosses a game this season. He’s also second on the squad in chances created (behind Mahrez) and most of those have come from corners. He’s a cheaper option than Mahrez and in my opinion, a more reliable option at that.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Jamie Vardy, $9,000 FD, $6,900 DK – Vardy is potentially sitting out because of injury, if that is the case, then obviously don’t select him. However, if he does start, look for Vardy to get on the scoring sheet, he’s one of my favorite cheaper options this week at just $6.9K on DK. On FD he’s more expensive, so he’s less of an option for me there, but still worth consideration.

Stoke vs Southampton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Stoke						Southampton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				203						156
				L W D D L L						D W D L W L
				1-2-3						2-2-2
12.00	3.00	12.67	7.83	19.00	21.33	14.17	2.83	11.83	8.00	23.00	16.33
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Adam, Shaqiri		Adam, Shaqiri		Shaqiri, Jese, Adam, Allen		Austin, Tadic, Gabbiadini, Bertrand, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Yoshida		Ward-Prowse, Tadic, Davis, Bertrand

Last weekend I staged a protest on Southampton as they played Manchester United at home. As a result, the team came away with a 1-0 loss after controlling possession at 60%, taking more shots, crosses and controlling the middle of the pitch. At the same time, they divided the corner kicks between Davis and Tadic, and when Ward-Prowse came on, he didn’t take any corners. The team still doesn’t have anybody with a monopoly on corners, let alone set pieces and it’s hard to predict who’s going to perform on a regular basis week in and week out.

Their opponent, Stoke, are playing at home for the second week in a row and will be looking to erase the foul display they put up against Chelsea that saw them concede 4 goals, including a hat-trick to Morata Stoke have the ability to come away from this match winners against a Southampton team that hasn’t shown the consistency and ability to allows them to win a match like this one on the road. Of course, Stoke could still come away disappointing their fans and leave us fantasy players cursing them and Southampton as has been the norm in recent weeks.

My expectations for this matchup are stoke and Southampton locked in a match that is close. there will be no clear cash game options, but there are a few players that can double as tournament options in the right conditions.

Stoke Top Plays

Jack Butland, $4,500 FD, $4,700 DK – At home in a somewhat even matchup, Butland has a good opportunity to step up and get a clean sheet and win. The biggest problem with facing Southampton is that the team doesn’t get a lot of shots on target. In fact, Southampton have just 17 of their 85 shots hit the target so far this season, a rate of just 20%, which is ranked 19th in the league better than just Crystal Palace who have yet to score a goal in the EPL this season. Thus, the chances of Butland securing a few saves are slim, but that also means that he’s unlikely to concede a lot of goals and could end up with 10+ DK points.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, $8,500 FD, $8,300 DK – Shaqiri has quietly become one of the more reliable players in the league in recent weeks. He had 22 crosses in the last two matches, 8 total shots and a goal scored. He’s been recommended in this space every week in that span as a secondary option, so for superstition reasons he’s back here again. I expect that he’ll be highly owned this week as people try to find ways to fill their lineups without taking too many United players. There is nothing wrong with sliding to Shaqiri though as he takes most of the set pieces (all of them last two weeks) and has averaged a cross every 9 minutes (10 crosses per 90). This is a plus matchup and thus would be in all my cash teams if I’m looking for reliability from this squad.

Southampton Top Plays

Steven Davis, $8,500 FD, $3,700 DK – Southampton lacks reliability, but Steven Davis is very cheap on DK at just $3.7K and if he gets the start on this unpredictable lineup he could be worth taking as he can eclipse 10 DK points and maybe even score if things lineup perfectly. I don’t trust him for cash, but he’s an option for tournaments.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Shane Long, $7,000 FD, $4,800 DK – Another option for tournaments here is Shane Long who has gotten the start for this team their last two matchups despite not scoring or taking too many shots. He’s third on the team in penalty touches this season behind Tadic and Redmond (both of whom can be tournament options). He’s taken just two shots, but they both were in front of goal and thus had a high chance of scoring. If he keeps putting himself in position to score, he’ll be able to convert some of these shots eventually.

West Bromwich Albion vs Watford

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Bromwich Albion						Watford
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				134						263
				W W D L D L						D W D W L W
				2-2-2						3-2-1
9.83	2.50	13.67	6.83	21.00	23.67	10.50	3.17	13.83	9.50	13.00	23.33
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
						Deeney, Gray		Holebas		Holebas, Cleverley, Watson, Capoue, Carrillo

WBA are favorites in this one against a Watford team that has been playing very well so far this season. This Watford squad has won all three of their away matches so far and will be looking to continue that run this week. They’ve gotten some excellent performances from several of the newcomers to the team so far this season with Richarlison chief among them. The teams front line looks completely different this season and they’ve managed to come away with 11 points from their first six matchups this season taking them up to 6th place in the table. That said, the team has a negative goal difference so far, but part of that comes from their 6-0 defeat to Manchester City, and if you take away that match, the team has conceded just four goals in five matches while scoring 9. Overall, they’re undefeated on the road and going against a West Brom team that has failed to score more than 2 goals at home in three matches and has just 5 points from three matches (where they should have come away with 9) makes me believe that Watford have the potential to come away from this matchup with all three points and keep their early strong start going. West Brom will be trying to fix some of their issues. Tony Pulis is a good defensive coach and his squad will be looking to tighten things up at home which limits some fantasy potential, though there are some options here.

West Bromwich Albion Top Plays

Chris Brunt, $6,500 FD, $6,100 DK – Phillips and Brunt take shared responsibility for crossing the ball on this squad with Brunt taking the lead on the crosses and corner tally this season so far. Expect more of the same to continue this week, though both these players tend to slow things down when Pulis wants to control the temp which limits their fantasy output. I prefer Brunt this week because Phillips will probably have to track back to stay on Richarlison who has the third most take-ons in the league. This should keep Phillips busy and allow the ball to flow more towards Brunt on the attack
Kieran Gibbs, $4,500 FD, $4,300 DK – Gibbs is a cheap option on defense that averages over 11 touches in the opponents final third in the three matches he started for the squad so far. If he starts again then he’ll be a cheap defender that will venture forward and try to get involved in the attack. That alone makes him worth consideration.

Watford Top Plays

Richarlison, $9,000 FD, $6,000 DK – As mentioned earlier, he’s one of the more dynamic players in the league and currently sits in third in take-ons. He tops this team and is one of the reasons that this squad has played so well so far. He scored a winning goal against Swansea last weekend and seems to be an expert at drawing fouls where he drew three more last week. With Watford playing on the road again, he’s not a cash play because he can disappear at times, but given his abilities, he could easily score goals against the best defenses, and with his price at just $6K on DK, it is important we take advantage of it before it climbs up as the season rolls on.

Watford Secondary Plays

Andre Carrillo, $5,000 FD, $4,600 DK – Carrillo is a player that gets ignored in DFS because he hasn’t done much yet. But watching the last few Watford matches he impressed me a bit with his aggressiveness. In Soccer you always want to target a player that will have the ball at his feet and Carrillo seems to touch the ball a lot (second most in the final third on the team, on average). He’s a tournament option only as he can track back on defense, but if you look at his touch heat map you’ll see that he’s active on the right side of the pitch and is a potential player that can deliver fantasy results as he finds his place on the team. Is this the week?

West Ham vs Swansea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Ham						Swansea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-110						379
				L L L W D L						D L W L D L
				1-1-4						1-2-3
11.83	3.33	13.83	7.50	23.00	19.50	6.67	1.67	18.67	9.00	18.00	25.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Noble, Lanzini, Carroll, Arnautovic		Noble, Arnautovic, Lanzini, Cresswell		Lanzini, Noble, Arnautovic, Cresswell		Bony, Abraham		Carroll		Carroll, Routledge

West Ham are one of two teams that are outright favorites on this slate, with the other being Manchester United. This is surprising a bit as Swansea have so far been a very strong away team. They’ve played good defense, not allowing any goals away from home and coming away with five points. Their opponent, West Ham has had a tough start to the season as they find themselves in 18th place with just four points out of six matches. West Ham are the better team with the more reliable lineup with Chicharito, Antonio, Arnautovic joined by Lanzini this week, they should come away as winners from this bout, especially at home. However, I think there will be some fantasy options on the defense for Swansea.

West Ham Top Plays

Marko Arnautovic, $7,500 FD, $6,800 DK – Since his return to the team following his suspension, Arnautovic has played a total of 98 minutes and in that time has recorded 11 crosses which is a rate that puts him ahead of Cresswell in terms of average crosses per match. It’s hard to predict ahead of time which player will take the bulk of crosses, but over the last two matches, the two players combined for 39 crosses, including the 17 crosses that Cresswell had against West Brom and the 11 he had against Tottenham. Expect both players to be decent options with Cresswell slightly better, but Arnautovic will be a good option as well.

Aaron Cresswell, $5,500 FD, $5,800 DK – Cresswell is the primary corner kick taker on this team and he’s been a reliable cash play recently. He’s priced up and he’s going to be tough to take on your teams, that will likely result in low ownership unless some extreme value options in midfield show up. This leaves Cresswell as a good option for tournaments as well as a building block for contrarian cash game builds.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Javier Hernandez, $10,000 FD, $7,800 DK – One rule to consider when building lineups is always take the most likely goal scorer on a team that is favored. With West Ham being big favorites then the most likely goal scorer is the player starting in the lone striker spot, that is usually the Mexican international, Chicharito. on FD, you’ll have to find ways to make your lineup work, but on DK he’s cheap enough to warrant consideration.

Swansea Top Plays

Federico Fernandez, $6,000 FD, $2,800 DK – With Fernandez expected to be busy on the road, you can expect him to tally up the defensive stats. He’s just $6K on FD and could be a good option on defense to fill your roster in cash games where he’ll rack up defensive stats such as clearances, blocks, and tackles.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Tammy Abraham, $7,500 FD, $5,900 DK – Abraham came on in the second half last week and was able to score a goal for Swansea. When Bony started many of us thought that Abraham won’t be part of the rotation as a heavy minutes player anymore. Fortunately for those of us who kept faith, Abraham came on in the second half and was very active on the wings and was able to record a goal off his one shot on target in the match. If he gets the start once again as a reward for his strong play, then expect him to be very active to prove his worth on this Swansea squad.

Chelsea vs Manchester City

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Chelsea						Manchester City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				183						161
				L W W W D W						W D W W W W
				4-1-1						5-1-0
13.67	4.83	11.17	6.33	16.83	20.83	19.67	7.83	7.00	3.67	24.50	9.33
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hazard, Fabregas, Willian, Morata		Alonso, Luiz, Willian, Fabregas,Drinkwater		Willian, Fabregas, Pedro, Hazard,Drinkwater

The late match this week is one of the best bouts we’ve seen this season so far. Manchester City visit the defending champs Chelsea. Unfortunately, the match will be marred with the late news of the car accident of Sergio Aguero in the Netherlands, and thus he’ll be missing the match this week, and up to a few months with what appears to be several broken ribs. The match will carry on nonetheless. When two top teams take the pitch against one another, there is usually very little to separate them, so it’s important to examine the matchup systematically. Chelsea come into this one as slight underdogs despite being at home and being the defending champions. They are behind City on points due to their week 1 loss to Burnley. City have been very impressive in recent weeks with their last four matches won by a combined score of 17-0. The City defense that was the talk of the offseason has been shining, and their offense even more so.

Without Aguero, they’ll be looking to Gabriel, Sterling, Leroy Sane and Bernardo Silva to pick up the slack. On the other side, Chelsea have recovered from the departure of Diego Costa quite nicely with the emergence of Morata, scoring a hat-trick in his last EPL start against Stoke, then scoring again against Atletico on the road in the Champions League.

This matchup will also feature two very strong midfields, with Silva and Kevin De Bruyne going against Hazard and Fabregas and Pedro.

For fantasy, it will be tough to pinpoint where the fantasy output will come from, the result of the match will likely be low scoring without a lot of fantasy performances that are easy to discern.

Chelsea Top Plays

Cesc Fabregas, $8,000 FD, $6,200 DK – Fabregas gets the nod here because he’s on set pieces and a worthy consideration for this matchup. He’s going against a City defensive midfield that tends to lapse and rely on the defensive line to cover for them at times. Fabregas has been good this season for the defending champs and will look to continue that solid run in this one.

Chelsea Secondary Plays

Alvaro Morata, $11,000 FD, $8,700 DK – Morata has been playing as good as anybody in the world in recent weeks. After a hat-trick last time out and scoring against the strong defense of Atletico Madrid, he’s looking like he might be the scorer this week. He’s made connections with Fabregas and Cesar Azpilicueta and both seem to be good options to pair with Morata if you want to choose a player to pair with him. Morata is best suited for tournaments as he’s goal dependent and won’t guarantee a significant number of shots to overcome the event that he does not score a goal.

Manchester City Top Plays

Kevin De Bruyne, $10,500 FD, $9,500 DK – Without Benjamin Mendy, KDB should see an increase in his crossing plays this week. Though KDB has been very active offensively this season so far, He is by far one of the best cash options this week especially being a late option and with the majority of people likely targeting Lukaku leaving little salary left over for a player for KDBs caliber.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Gabriel Jesus, $11,000 FD, $8,400 DK – Without Aguero, Jesus should take the wheel and attempt to lead the line for this squad this week. Expect that Jesus will push for more shots against the defending champs, though given that this is a road match for the Citizens, he may not get enough shots to make a difference and he’ll also have to go against a strong Chelsea defense that will decrease his overall output, though he’s talented enough to be a tournament option with very high ceiling.