EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 9

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-10-21 16:06:07

Last week I debuted the new version of the Grind Down and while most of the picks I had were successful, I didn’t do very well in cash games because I had relied on Aaron Cresswell and Tom Ince in my lineups. I spent a little bit of time trying to figure out where I had gone wrong with these selections. I expected them both to be the main corner kick and open play crossing players on their respective teams, and in the case of West Ham, Manuel Lanzini starting and coming back from injury took away Cresswell’s floor in crosses and may be something to keep an eye on in the future. The other play was Tom Ince who was playing against Swansea. I incorrectly assumed he would take over all set piece and crossing duty with Aaron Mooy being out due to travel after the international break. Moreover, I didn’t take into account that both these teams were on the road and thus their production was dipped on the offensive end. This overall resulted in a less than great cash score for me last week. But, no big deal as we have another week right here and plenty of time to correct our mistakes and learn from them.

So how does the Grind Down work? I’m going to try to localize and organize the information. Games won’t be broken down match by match, but rather, the Grind Down should guide you through your lineup building process. Think of it as a journey of lineup building. First we look at the odds for each game, and from there, we focus on the matches that include the top teams, then matches that don’t include top teams. Our team breakdown will be mostly an overview of the match and where each team is and what the mentality is expected to be. Then we dive deeper into the matchups and look for cash viable plays and then tournament viable plays. Finally, we’ll look at the set piece takers for each team in action, then give a couple of goalkeepers and a couple of defenders that I may like this week.

This won’t be your typical picks article. If a player isn’t mentioned here, it doesn’t mean that he’s not a good play, or that he won’t perform, but the goal is that if you read this article and then go to build your lineups you can build your own lineups for this week without anybody’s help on Saturday morning.

Of course, if you do need help, on Saturday morning I’ll be there on twitter answering questions, so @ me and let me know what you think of the changes this week.

So let’s get started!

Matchweek 9 odds

As we did last week, we’ll start with the odds

Top Six Teams

This week we only have two top six teams in our main Saturday slate. The two Manchester Clubs are going into this week once again as the top two teams in the league with City breaking out a 2 point lead over their cross town rivals. Manchester City are playing at home against Burnley while Manchester United travel to Huddersfield.

Manchester City

We begin our analysis with Manchester City and the team everybody will most likely want to stack. In cash games, the expectation will be that City crush Burnley and put up at least 4-5 goals. They are the only team with a team total of over 3 at some very good odds. (City 3 goals at 4/6, or -150 on pinnacle Friday morning). So how can you fit in multiple city players this week? I would focus my attention on the attacking 4 players, they will likely lineup with a 4-3-3-3 with Raheem Sterling flanking on one side and Jesus flanking the other in the attack. Aguero might be back in this matchup following his car accident that left him with some injured ribs. If he’s not back then Jesus slides in the center and maybe Sane starts. The midfield options are intriguing as well. Kevin De Bruyne has been spot on with his passing in recent weeks and creates many chances on the ground for his teammates. Same with David Silva. I would target any of them but Aguero is strictly a GPP option as he returns from injury I would be weary from a mobility standpoint as it’s hard to tell exactly how much of it he actually has.

Things that could keep me from going all in on City: The weather looks like it might nasty in Manchester on Saturday with accuweather predicting rain and heavy wind gusts https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/manchester/m15-6/daily-weather-forecast/329260?day=2 on Saturday. I’m not a weather man and I don’t think Kevin Roth does weather models in the UK but it’s something you should consider when building your lineups. Heavy winds means that there will be fewer crosses as the players will likely try to keep the ball on the ground and rain means less accuracy and fewer shots on target. Then again, this is Manchester City and they don’t need perfect conditions to dominate a matchup.

Manchester United

The other top team we have in action Saturday is Manchester United who travel to Huddersfield. Just two weeks ago we had a similar matchup to this one with Huddersfield playing host to Tottenham, and that match ended in a 4-0 win for the Spurs. After starting the season on a high note with two straight wins, Huddersfield have managed just three points from their next six fixtures through draws. I don’t expect them to keep United at bay here and I suspect that the result will be similar to the Tottenham matchup. In that matchup, the Spurs controlled the midfield and pushed up the flanks and as a result Harry Kane ended with a brace, while Huddersfield had very little offense to show for it. I expect in this one for United to control the middle which gives players such as Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Lukaku to shine. I would consider these two must haves if you’re playing multiple GPP lineups. If you’re trying to find some cash exposure and already invested your salary cap into City, then you could go for the full backs on United if Young and Darmian end up in those spots. There will be little reason to target any Huddersfield players outside of Mooy in tournaments and I don’t believe that is a necessary risk on this slate even in tournaments.

Non Top 6 teams

The non top 6 teams that are not playing top six teams will comprise this section, as generally, we handle matches that don’t involve top teams differently than we would every other match. This week the majority of our slate comes from here so it will be critical to analyze these games correctly as they will be the difference maker in our lineups.

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace

Palace are coming off their first win of the season and likely their biggest one at that after they managed to defeat the defending champions at home. This week they travel to Newcastle who have actually looked really good. These two teams are both very sneaky teams that the casual player will probably dismiss this match altogether due to their relative unfamiliarity or incorrect preconceived notions on both teams.

First let’s look at Newcastle. Most DFS players probably haven’t had a lot of opportunities to play the Toons this season because of the schedule. If you haven’t played any Sunday slates then you probably missed Newcastle altogether. In fact, Newcastle have played just two Saturday matches this season and in both they came away as victors against Stoke (1 month ago, 2-1) and West Ham (3-0). The team plays organized football that keeps it’s shape. They also rely on Christian Atsu and Matt Ritchie to open up play on attack in the 4-4-1-1 formation. Joselu is the lone striker with Ayoze Perez as the support striker. This configuration open up play for the full backs as well when they are at home, so it’s easy to consider Deandre Yedlin or Manquillo for defensive options if you’re looking for cheap options.

For Palace, considering that their resurgence last week coincided with Zaha, I suspect that he’ll be a major player this week again for the team and try to get them a second win in a row. Zaha was vital against Chelsea, and while it’s hard to see how the teams shapes up this week, it might be wise to wait a week to see how they perform with Zaha and Loftus-Cheek in the lineup. Keeping an eye on their formation changes in this match will be important for next week as Townsend might slip down to the midfield and play on the right, allowing Zaha to roam as a lone striker in a 4-4-1-1. Zaha is still a good tournament option, but I wouldn’t target many Palace players in cash.

Stoke vs Bournemouth

These two teams are struggling to find their footing this season with Stoke currently sitting in 17th place and Bournemouth in 19th place in the table. And while it’s too early to panic, these two fan bases expect more from their teams and want to see them make their way to the middle of the table. Stoke did just come off a drumming by Manchester City, but essentially anybody who’s played City lately has faced similar results, so I can’t fault them too much. The big question will be how the team reacts to the loss. At home against a Bournemouth side that shouldn’t give as much trouble should be the ideal bounce back spot for Stoke. This puts some players on the side in contention for cash game consideration this week. Chief among them is Xherdan Shaqiri as he has been taking corner kicks and crossing the ball more lately. On the other side of the ball Bournemouth do have Stanislas and Ibe who can both deliver crosses and spread the play out wide. I expect this match to end with 2-1 for Stoke with the strikers from both teams threatening and Shaqiri eligible for cash.

Swansea vs Leicester

Swansea had a good weekend last time out defeating Huddersfield 2-0 and with Tammy Abraham securing two goals to his total taking him up to 4 goals on the season and tying him for 10th in the Premier League. Which does beg the question as to why he’s loaned out to Swansea and not back with Chelsea where he could be producing immediate impact with Morata potentially injured and Batshuayi not contributing. Regardless, Swansea have a match with Leicester this week and they should feel confident about their ability to get some points from this one. Leicester on their part just fired their manager Craig Shakespeare as they are now without a win in their last six matches in the league and have dropped all the way to 18th place. It will be hard to predict how the Foxes will perform this week with a new replacement manager. Swansea also get a bit of a boost with the return of Renato Sanchez this week from injury. For fantasy purposes Sanchez plays a vital role on the team and could be a high scorer on FanDuel, meanwhile Tom Carroll and Tammy Abraham are both the most likely assist/goal combination. There are not any plays from Leicester that I would recommend.

Southampton vs West Bromwich Albion

The final match of the week involves Southampton and West Brom in the late game. Southampton have been the toughest team to predict performance wise this season. Dusan Tadic is a no go for me. Nathan Redmond is a potential player that I consider every once in a while. On defense, Cedric has been the most consistent of the players on this team. Gabbiadini scored two goals last time out in a 2-2 draw with Newcastle. He also took the penalty for the team in the second half. As for West Brom, they have failed at winning matches lately, including their last six where they have just 4 points off four draws. They come into this matchup looking to try to get some offense going. These two teams combined only scored 14 goals on the season which is less than what Manchester City have scored this season. So unless you see a value play on the wing that you want to use, I recommend Redmond as his price on DK is relatively doable. However, he’s not really a worthy cash play option. Overall, if you skip this match altogether you won’t miss out on much.

H2=. Cash Plays

For a player to be cash eligible, they need to do a few things. First, they should be a heavy crossing/shooting/chance creator type player. If a player fills all three buckets then they are absolutely in cash territory for me for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The table below will display the top 50 crossing players on the season so far and below I’ll have a few one-liner thoughts on a few important ones.

Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City, $10,400 DK, $12,000 FD – It’s going to be hard to fit him on your teams especially with his high price tag. But expect him to be heavily owned regardless. The problem is that unless City scores 5-7 goals then you may end up not getting much from KDB in terms of goals and assists. Silva is another option to pivot off of KDB. I wouldn’t be surprised if you end up finding a ton of city stacks that include both of them.

Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke, $8,300 DK, $9,000 FD – Shaqiri is back to being a reliable option and in this week’s matchup at home against Bournemouth I expect him to deliver fantasy production. I picked him in my FPL team as well this week as I think he’s going to score a goal this week. His price may end up making him tough to fit with a bunch of City players, but he’s worth taking if you can trust that Stoke will win their matchup.

Matt Ritchie, Newcastle, $8,100 DK, $8,500 FD – Ritchie is another cash option as he’s expected to get a few crosses for the Magpies this week in their matchup with Palace. He can get to double digit crosses easily.

Tom Carroll, Swansea, $5,400 DK, $7,500 FD – Carroll is another crossing player who should have a solid outing this week with Swansea. He is also a pick to get on the score sheet either through a goal or assist.

H2=. Tournament Plays

Of course, everybody is a solid tournament play, as anybody can score a goal so long as they start the match. And even players that don’t start can come in off the bench and score a goal, but they usually only have 10-30 minutes to do so as opposed to 90. I don’t advocate taking flyers on players that don’t start as it is a losing strategy more often than not. That said, there is a method to select the players that are most likely to score goals, and thus marking themselves as tournament options. The players highlighted in this section will be players that take plenty of shots, convert several into goals, and get a lot of touches in the penalty area.

Romelu Lukaku, Manchester United, $11,100 DK, $11,000 FD – With the attention likely squarely on City and with the question on whether Aguero starts or doesn’t, then I predict that Lukaku will end up getting ignored a little bit by most DFSers. Though Lukaku can easily be the highest scoring player on the slate. This makes for a perfect GPP opportunity.

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Stoke, $6,200 DK, $7,500 FD – He’s going against a Bournemouth team that doesn’t keep a lot of clean sheets and he’s the best attacking player on Stoke this season so far. He’s in a good spot and should come through this week.

Raheem Sterling, Manchester City, $8,800 DK, $10,000 FD – I think Sterling is a great GPP play on FanDuel because of his high price and that you can go down a little in price and get other players on the same City squad making him expendable on your lineup. This makes for a great opportunity for tournaments.

Joselu, Newcastle, $6,100 DK, $10,000 FD – He’s the top offensive player on Newcastle and is very cheap on DK making him a good cheap tournament option.

Set Piece Takers

One of the most important aspect of DFS soccer is targeting set piece takers. In this section I’ll list team by team and their set piece takers

Bournemouth

Corners: Stanislas, Pugh
Set Pieces: Andrew Surman, Charlie Daniels
Penalties: 0 penalties taken this season. Last season Josh King and Junior Stanislas took penalties.

Burnley

Corners: Robbie Brady
Set Pieces: Ben Mee, Chris Wood
Penalties: 0 penalties taken this season, last season only 6 total penalties scored. Vokes, Barnes and Gray scored 2 a piece.

Crystal Palace

Corners: Zaha, Cabaye, Townsend, Puncheon, Van Aanholt
Set Pieces: Zaha, Joel Ward
Penalties: 0 penalties scored this season. Benteke has taken penalties in the past as has Milivojevic.

Huddersfield Town

Corners: Mooy, Ince
Set Pieces: Mooy, Ince, Kachunga, Sabiri, Smith
Penalties: 0 penalties taken this season. Expect Mooy/Ince or Mounie to take a penalty.
h4. Leicester

Corners: Albrighton, Mahrez
Set Pieces: Mahrez, Albrighton
Penalties: Mahrez, Vardy

Manchester City

Corners: Kevin De Bruyne, Silva
Set Pieces: KDB, Silva
Penalties: Sterling, Aguero, Jesus or Kevin De Bruyne

Manchester United

Corners:Mkhitaryan, Mata, Blind
Set Pieces: Mkhitaryan, Mata, Blind, Rashford
Penalties: Martial, Lukaku

Newcastle

Corners: Ritchie, Shelvey
Set Pieces: Ritchie, Shelvey
Penalties: Joselu, Atsu, Perez

Southampton

Corners: Ritchie, Bertrand
Set Pieces: Ritchie, Bertrand
Penalties: Gabbiadini

Stoke

Corners: Shaqiri
Set Pieces: Shaqiri
Penalties: Saido Berahino, Adam or Shaqiri

Swansea

Corners: Tom Carroll
Set Pieces: Carroll
Penalties: 0 taken so far this season. Sigurdsson used to take penalties. Expect Abraham or Bony to potentially take penalties.

West Brom

Corners: Chadli, Phillips, Brunt
Set Pieces: Phillips, Brunt, Chadli
Penalties: Joselu, Phillips

Goalkeeper Breakdown

Robert Elliot, Newcastle, $5,100 DK, $4,500 FD – Leaving out the Chelsea match last week, Palace haven’t really threatened opponent keepers too menacingly. In fact, they’ve taken some shots from outside the box that enabled keepers to make some easy saves. Elliot is cheap enough to target on FD and come away not feeling too bad. Plus, Palace are unlikely to put extreme pressure to put him in the negative on the night.

Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea, $4,700 DK, $5,000 FD – Fabianski is at home and should have an opportunity for a win here and maybe even a clean sheet. He’s got potential to be the highest scoring GK on the slate for Swansea.

Defender Breakdown

When it comes to defenders, there are two options. Get a full back, in which case you’d have to pay up most of the time. Or go super cheap and get central defenders that join the attack on set pieces. One way to filter out this second group is by searching for defenders who take headers and those that take set pieces. The tables below includes the top defenders with touches in the final third, and then top 10 defenders with header attempts on the season so far.