English Premier League Grind Down: Week 13

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:06:30

This week the Grind Down covers a short slate with some intrigue, as there are five matches on Saturday highlighted by the London Derby with Chelsea hosting Tottenham. There are going to be some interesting roster construction decisions to be made today with Liverpool being in a good spot, West Brom visiting the leaking Hull and Crystal Palace and Swansea trying to drag themselves out of the pits of despair at the expense of one another.

If you want some more soccer coverage, check out the Marketplace where there are some projections for both players and teams specific to both FD and DK. There are also player rankings and a chat room where I’ll be active in the morning right up to lineup lock answering questions about the slate and the lineups as they come out. For more information click here.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, comments, suggestions, hit me up on twitter or leave a message right here on this column.

Swansea vs Crystal Palace

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Swansea						Crystal Palace
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				163						192
				L L D L L D						D L L L L L
				1-3-8						3-2-7
11.33	4.00	15.33	9.75	20.17	20.67	14.25	4.08	13.25	8.17	28.08	20.83
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson, Routledge, Stephen Kingsley		Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham		Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney		Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley

The pressure is starting to mount on Bob Bradley to get his first win as a manager in the Premier League and the matchup with Crystal Palace may be the right time to go for it. Palace are losers of five straight and winless in 6, meanwhile Swansea are winless in 11 matches of 12 this season and will try to get out of the basement of the table over the next few weeks, but it has to start somewhere. This matchup has plenty of intrigue as both teams need the win, but it could also end up as a goalless draw which helps both teams achieve their goals.

Swansea Top Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder, $8,100 DK, $8,300 FD – As the top corner kick, penalty kick and free kick taker on this team he always commands a look in DFS. But also considering that he moved to his preferred number 10 role last time out rather than a false 9, he’s more comfortable and should continue to contribute stats to help his team get their first win under their new manager. The performance last time out was improved and part of that was due to Sigurdsson’s play. If the team is to get a win this time, they’ll need his elevated play to shine through.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Kyle Naughton, Defender, $4,300 DK, $5,000 FD – He’s a highly projected defender on a team that is playing at home and will be looking to attack. Moreover, he’s going to figure as part of that attacking plan given his wing play and his potential for defensive stats to add to it. He’s worth a look on both DK and FD and will likely be a fixture on teams on both sites.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Wilfried Zaha, Midfielder, $6,900 DK, $6,500 FD – Priced at under 7K on both sites, Zaha has potential to provide plenty of upside given the matchup. Despite Palace’s lackluster performances in recent weeks, Zaha has been shining providing assists in multiple matches and eclipsing double digit points on DK in 7 of his last 8 matches and 20 FD points in his last four. Zaha has done everything he can to keep this team afloat and this week the matchup is easiest making him a good value play.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Christian Benteke, Forward, $7,200 DK, $7,200 FD – He’s been taking plenty of shots in recent weeks and this matchup may afford him to score a goal or two. He’ll be under owned given that his price falls a bit lower than a lot more desirable forwards. I do think Benteke gets at least 3-5 shots this week with a single goal to his name.

Leicester vs Middlesbrough

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Leicester						Middlesbrough
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-106						348
				D L W D L L						D L D W D L
				3-3-6						2-5-5
10.58	2.83	14.17	8.00	19.17	20.08	9.17	2.42	14.58	8.33	18.83	20.92
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Mahrez, Vardy		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray		Ramirez, Downing		Ramirez, Downing		Downing, Ramirez, Friend

Another matchup that doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the extent of fantasy goodness that will lead to a good fantasy outing. Leicester come into this week’s matchup after a history making mid-week win that saw them book their ticket to the knock-out stages of the Champions League. And now this Leicester squad needs to get their act back together in order to avoid an embarrassing fight to avoid relegation. In truth, Leicester will make their way into the top 10 before the season ends and you can count on them to begin that charge this month. On the other hand, Middlesbrough are a tough defensive team that have stymied many top EPL opponents this season and barely lost last week at home by a single goal to Chelsea. I predict a low scoring affair here with Leicester ultimately coming out ahead by a narrow margin.

Leicester Top Plays

Riyad Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, $8,200 DK, $8,800 FD – Around this time last year and for a period of 5 or 6 matches Mahrez began a run that would later prove to be key in cementing Leicester as EPL champs. Mahrez has two goals in two matches since last weekend and with a home matchup against Middlesbrough, he might be looking to add a third this week. Mahrez also has the added motivation to keep up the solid performances in order to cement his position as the African Player of the Year award at the end of the year which would surely go his way given that he led his team to the EPL title, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to remind the voters that he is still good by scoring a few goals on his way to leading his Leicester city squad to some more wins to close out the year.

Leicester Secondary Plays

None

Middlesbrough Top Plays

Adama Traore, Midfielder, $5,400 DK, $5,400 FD – Traore has been a bright spot for this Middlesbrough team recently with 8 crosses last time out he was a constant threat against Chelsea. Against a Leicester squad that holds an average possession on the season of 46%, Traore will be afforded chances to make some more noise as Middlesbrough look to take advantage of this matchup and try to steal some points on the road from the defending champs. Troare plays on the wing and is likely to be a solid contributor and major part of the Middlesbrough offense giving him an opportunity to collect points in both Fanduel and Draftkings.

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

Alvaro Negredo, Forward, $6,000 DK, $7,600 FD – With just a single goal this season, the Middlesbrough front man hasn’t shown the potential that some thought he would exhibit this season in the Premier League. However, looking at his recent game logs, Negredo has seemed to move away from settling for long distance shots (which seem to land on target more often than not, and get saved), and moving more towards short distance shots, and inside the box attacks including headers off free kicks and corners and open play shots. Negredo is getting close and if you look at Ron Robert Zeiler’s record, he hasn’t kept a clean sheet for Leicester since taking over the starting job from the injured Schmeichel. Negredo is a long shot to score this week, and his price is favorable on DK more than it is on FD, but I wouldn’t be opposed to taking a chance on him on either platform.

Liverpool vs Sunderland

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Liverpool						Sunderland
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-535						1505
				W D W W W D						D L L L W W
				8-3-1						2-2-8
18.75	7.25	7.67	4.42	18.50	14.50	9.08	2.58	18.83	11.17	15.92	23.92
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Milner, Benteke, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno		Philippe Coutinho, Lallana		Milner, Lallana, Coutinho, Henderson		Borini, Defoe, Watmore		Khazri, Van Aanholt		Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt

There isn’t much that can be said on this match that you won’t find elsewhere. Liverpool are the cream of the crop this week in terms of matchup and they are in tremendous form. They have 12 goals in their last four matches despite being held goal-less against Southampton on the road last time out. A matchup with the porous Sunderland should provide plenty of opportunities for the team to score many goals, and as such, it will be tough to identify which of the many options on Liverpool are worth taking a shot on considering their prices are all steep. Sunderland on the other hand have a tendency of surprising us and producing some unexpected results every once in a while. This is highlighted by the fact that the team is coming off a two game win streak, a streak that includes the only two wins of the season for this Sunderland club. In fact, this now marks three straight goals for Jermaine Defoe, and the win streak coincides with the addition of Anichebe to the starting lineup who has three goals since the promotion.

Liverpool Top Plays

Philippe Coutinho, Midfielder, $9,500 DK, $12,100 FD – the most expensive player on Fanduel and the second most expensive player on DK might be the more sought after player this week given his potential. He’s been taking corners for Liverpool and he’s been providing the team with energy and scoring as well as assists. It’ll be tough to build up lineups without at least attempting to get exposure to Liverpool, and he’ll likely be the highest owned player on the slate given his role on the team and the expected goal scoring for this team.

Sadio Mane, Midfielder, $8,700 DK, $8,800 FD – You can save a lot by going to Sadio Mane this week and still getting the exposure you need to Liverpool. Of course, you can get exposure to Liverpool in multiple places, but I think Mane gets you more than 15 points on DK and more than 30 on FD this week.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

James Milner, Defender, $6,700 DK – He’s only a viable option given his price on DK, since he’s listed as a defender there. He’ll be under owned, and while he no longer takes corners for this team, he still takes the penalties for this team and thus has the potential to end up with a goal at any given time in any match. So far, Liverpool have 4 penalties, and playing at home against a weak team they have a decent shot at getting another penalty this week.

Sunderland Top Plays

Jordan Pickford, Goalkeeper, $3,600 DK, $7,100 FD – Pickford is very cheap on DK and has an above average price tag on FD and makes for a good play on both. He’s facing one of the top offensive threat teams in the league and as such, has a great chance at seeing plenty of shots on goal. Pickford then has one of the best chances at making some saves this week that can lead to a high scoring point total especially if he manages to not concede many goals. There is some benefit to taking Pickford along with 1 attacking Liverpool player as the striker and opposing goalkeeper are correlated (as long as the striker doesn’t have more than a single goal scored)

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Victor Anichebe, Forward, $5,200 DK, $6,500 FD – Since entering the starting lineup Anichebe has three goals including a brace last time out against Hull. He’s not going to repeat that feat against Liverpool, but if you’re playing for the upset, then he should really be on your radar as he’s been a vital part of this Sunderland team the last two matches and his price should continue to rise over the next few weeks.

Patrick Van Aanholt, Defender, $4,700 DK, $5,000 FD – If you don’t think the upset will happen, then you should take a look at Van Aanholt especially on Fanduel where defensive stats count for plenty. Last time out Van Aanholt had an assists and two clearances off the line and an overall line of 2 blocks, three chances created, a tackle, 2 interceptions and 35 passes. PVA should repeat a similar line this time out but likely without the assist. This should put his point total close to 20 fanduel points for a cheap price, he’s worth the chance on there.

Hull vs West Brom

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Hull						West Brom
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				215						160
				L L L L W L						D D L L W W
				3-1-8						4-4-4
9.33	2.83	20.67	11.58	17.92	22.67	11.17	3.67	13.33	8.50	19.17	21.58
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hernandez, Snodgrass		Snodgrass		Snodgrass, Huddlestone		Berahino, Rondon, Gardner		Gardner, Rondon, McClean		Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Berahino

With Hull coming off a 0-3 loss to Sunderland, and with West Brom delivering a beating on Burnley with 4 goals to nothing, we find ourselves with an interesting dilemma. Do we trust that West Brom will continue their goal scoring barrage against a team that is very susceptible to conceding goals? Or have there been any changes in the Hull lineup that will allow them to play better at home and avoid an embarrassing defeat to the Baggies? A quick look at the news from the manager conference on Friday show that Mike Phelan has Adama Diomande and Andrew Robertson available again who both may again feature in the lineup at the expense of Sam Clucas and Josh Tymon. Robertson would provide some improved skill at the left full back position giving the team a different look and allowing for them to put some pressure on the West Brom defenders that may in turn limit the damage the team may concede at home. On the other hand, West Brom might end up being more conservative on the road leading to this match ending as a low scoring affair devoid of any great fantasy options. Nevertheless, the nature of the Grind Down means we should explore any potential options on either team

Hull Top Plays

Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $7,300 DK, $7,100 FD – Always threatening to deliver double digit crosses and a goal and/or assist. Snodgrass is the premier fantasy option on this Hull squad. If you think that Hull will get their act together for this matchup, they’ll probably rely on Snodgrass to guide them there.

Hull Secondary Plays

None

West Brom Top Plays

Craig Dawson, Defender, $4,700 DK, $5,000 FD – Dawson comes into this matchup as one of the top projected defenders on the slate. He’s also been providing some solid peripheral contributions on both DK and FD for several weeks now. At $4.7K on DK he’s a bit pricey, but if you can afford him, then he’s worth the price of admission.

West Brom Secondary Plays

Solomon Rondon, Forward, $7,500 DK, $7,600 FD – Facing Hull is an intriguing proposition for any forward, and Rondon should be salivating at the opportunity this week as he looks to add to his goal scoring tally of four so far this season. Rondon had a goal and an assist last time out against Burnley, and while that matchup was at home, he’ll be looking for a repeat of that performance again Saturday against the weak Hull defense.

Chelsea vs Tottenham

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Chelsea						Tottenham
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-128						406
				W W W W W W						W D D D D W
				9-1-2						6-6-0
16.58	5.92	8.67	4.83	21.08	17.92	17.42	5.67	10.33	6.42	19.58	16.25
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hazard, Oscar, Fabregas, Costa		Willian, Oscar, Fabregas, Matic		Willian, Fabregas		Kane, Chadli		Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker		Eriksen, Lamela

The match of the day is between the team leading the table and has scored 27 goals in 12 matches, against one of the best defensive teams in the league. The one thing that most people will overlook is that Chelsea’s defense has been pretty solid lately having kept clean sheets in their last six matches. Meanwhile, Tottenham have been dividing their attention between EPL and Champions League play where they played last Tuesday and suffered a 2-1 defeat to Monaco which eliminated them from promotion to the next round in the UCL and now they are left with a winner-take-all match with CSKA at home for the right to qualify to the Europa league as a consolation prize. Combined with the injuries suffered and fatigue, Tottenham may end up featuring a rotated squad for the London derby, so be weary of taking any of their players on Fanduel where you don’t have late swap and would be forced to roster a non-starter and an eventual 0.

Chelsea Top Plays

Diego Costa, Forward, $9,200 DK, $11,900 FD – He’s very expensive on both sites, but he’s been playing with extreme confidence and not a hint of his temper/attitude which has plagued him for years. It seems that he’s learned to focus his angst and thus has turned into a remarkable player who can score goals on the fewest touches. Taking Costa is surely a risky play but he’s got an excellent opportunity to pull through and score a winner for Chelsea this week in this Derby match.

Marcos Alonso, Defender, $5,600 DK, $4,800 FD – Alonso has been playing a wing spot in the 3-4-3 formation that Chelsea has found plenty of success under. Alonso performances in his last few matches have featured goals, tackles, interceptions, assists and shots. He should continue that trajectory in this match as he isn’t reliant on goals to secure fantasy output.

Chelsea Secondary Plays

Eden Hazard, Midfielder, $10,000 DK, $10,500 FD – As the only player who breaks 5 figures on both sites, Hazard will probably not be featured in many lineups, however, he if manages to score a goal off a penalty kick, or if Willian doesn’t get the start (thus leaving corners to Hazard once again), then Hazard could be featured on the winning lineup on a GPP given his potential for a high floor and a high ceiling this week in what is a tough matchup.

Tottenham Top Plays

Jan Vertonghen, Defender, $3,200 DK, $4,400 FD – Vertonghen is going to start at the full back this week given the injuries and suspensions that Tottenham are facing. He’s normally a center back, but this week he gets to try his luck at full back. This elevates his rank on DK more than FD, but he should be part of the offense which helps him on both sites. Vertonghen plays the full back for his national team Belgium, so he has experience with the position, but nevertheless, he won’t likely be producing a monster total, but at his price, he should be more than serviceable.

Tottenham Secondary Plays

Harry Kane, Forward, $8,200 DK, $11,600 FD – Kane made a lot of people a lot of money last weekend when he scored two late goals to flip a 2-1 loss to a 3-2 win for Tottenham. Given that, Tottenham will look to rely on him once again this week to score some goals. He’s away from home which puts him at a slight higher risk than his counterpart, the aforementioned Costa. However, I like taking a chance on Kane this week given that the majority of players will focus their fantasy dollars elsewhere.