EPL Grind Down: Week 14

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:06:28

With another week in the books we come closer to boxing day and teams have begun opening up the transfer window to try to fix what they can to try to make a run for the top of the table. Of course each team is different and some teams are fighting relegation while others just want to finish in the top half of the table. Nevertheless, this is the time of year when most teams still have hopes for achieving some great heights and most players are trying to prove themselves in order to get some more playing time, or avoid demotion or to work for new contracts. There are close matches and players are fatigued, so watch out for squad rotation as well as injuries and suspensions. As always, lineups come out an hour before lock in the morning. So be sure to check out the lineups and pay close attention to them as there are undoubtedly some surprises brewing as the lineups come out.

Stoke vs Burnley

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Stoke						Burnley
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				224						923
				D W W W D L						L L W D W L
				3-4-5						4-2-6
12.17	3.58	13.67	8.42	19.00	20.58	8.67	2.25	20.42	11.25	17.00	28.83
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Shaqiri, Adam, Arnautovic		Shaqiri, Bojan, Adam, Arnautovic.		Sam Vokes, Andre Gray		Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson, Steven Defour		Steven Defour, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson

With a 60% chance to win this matchup, Stoke come into this week 14 game with Burnley as the second highest favorite on the day. Stoke come into the match on a good run that sees them winners of four of their last six and 13 points of their last 18. The run they’ve gone on has vaulted them from bottom of the table just a few weeks ago to 11th place entering Saturday’s contests. Of course, the schedule makers have been kind to them as they faced 6 teams that have either underperformed, are recently promoted, or are threatening relegation this season. This week will be no different as Burnley have been bottom of the stat tables in several categories, including shots (20th), shots on target (19th), goals (19th), Touches in the final third (20th), Chances created (19th), assists (17th), crosses (19th). Burnley, to put it lightly, have been lucky to amass 14 points in their first 13 games and the bottom should start falling out soon. They enter this match losers of their last two, and will likely come out of the other side losers again. The odds of a Burnley goal are very slim as they don’t provide much offense (or possession, where they are ranked 19th in overall possession and away possession). Stoke should have an easy time this week, which puts a few of their players in contention for our rosters.

Stoke Top Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, Midfielder, $7,800 (DK), $7,300 (FD) – Shaqiri gets a reluctant primary billing this week for this matchup as he’s the primary corner kick taker for Stoke and he’s also their main set piece taker and has scored three goals already this season. Shaqiri and Stoke have recently declined in the total number of crosses they deliver as they’ve opted for a more ground game which has limited Shaqiri’s upside on DraftKings as evidenced by his recent point totals that don’t eclipse double digits. On FanDuel, it’s more or less the same where he’s barely eclipsing double digit points except when he scores. So why is he highlighted this week? His role on the team is undeniable against a weak opponent, and he should face plenty of opportunity to deliver production.

Marco Arnautovic, Midfielder/Forward, $6,600 (DK), $7,300 (FD) – With just a single goal in the EPL this season off of 25 shots (15 in the penalty area), Arnautovic has been flirting with the idea of scoring goals for a few weeks now. He’s going through a dry spell and that may very well continue through this week, but if ever there was a week where Arnautovic comes through for us, this may be it. He’s been taking some open play crosses as well which has added some value on DraftKings. He has similar value on FanDuel with a litany of peripheral stats such as chances created, tackles, passes and clearances.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Joe Allen or Charlie Adam, Midfielders – One of these two will likely get the start as the other winger opposite of Shaqiri. If it is Joe Allen ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD), it’ll be tough to add him into your teams as he’s more expensive that I’d like to spend on a player of his caliber. However, if it comes down to Charlie Adam ($4,300 DK, $6,000 FD) starting on the other wing opposite of Shaqiri, then he gets some value in this matchup as a secondary option worth considering, especially on DraftKings.

Burnley Top Plays

Ben Mee, Defender, $5,300 (FD) – I’m not listing his DraftKings price because Mee is only a viable option on FanDuel where he will get 20+ fantasy points due to the scoring that favors defenders on FanDuel more than on DraftKings. Mee and Keane ($6,100) both carry some high floor for a team that will give up plenty of possession and force their central defenders into making some clearances, tackles, interceptions and blocks. Mee gets the nod as the defender to target from this group as he’s priced cheaper than Keane.

Burnley Secondary Plays

Steven Defour, Midfielder, $5,700 (DK) $5,600 (FD) – Defour gets the nod here because of the expected absence of Johann Berg-Gudmundsson who is already ruled out with a hamstring injury. Defour will take over the corner kick duties and most other free kicks for Gudmundsson as he did last time out after JBG went off at the 43rd minute. This matchup isn’t as tough as the Manchester City one, and Stoke have shown the inability to handle an attack from time to time, Defour makes for a decent play in a better than average matchup for this squad.

Sunderland vs Leicester

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Sunderland						Leicester
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1505						-106
				D L L L W W						D L W D L L
				2-2-8						3-3-6
9.08	2.58	18.83	11.17	15.92	23.92	10.58	2.83	14.17	8.00	19.17	20.08
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Borini, Defoe, Watmore		Khazri, Van Aanholt		Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt		Mahrez, Vardy		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray

The defending champs are in trouble. Much like last season, we find ourselves headed into the December EPL grind wondering what to make of the team that held aloft the crown just a few short months ago. Leicester come into this visit to The Stadium of Light having drawn at home 2-2 against Middlesbrough after a late-late-late penalty kick to rescue a point despite being outplayed and giving up almost 60% of the possession in the match to the visitors. Now they get to go on the road against one team they should have the advantage against on paper, but reality ends up being a bit different. Sunderland did hold their own for the majority of their matchup with Liverpool last time out despite losing 2-0 in the end. The team played some disciplined defense for the most part and were punished for an errant tackle in the box that allowed James Milner to score to put the Reds up 2 goals late in the second half. Coming back home, Sunderland might try more of the same this week to get away with a point if not more against Leicester. I expect the match to feature goals from both sides, but I don’t think there will be a large amount of saves or even shots as both teams tend to play it a bit closer to the vest.

Sunderland Top Plays

Jermaine Defoe, Forward, $6,500 DK, $3,900 FD – He scored three goals in three games prior to the matchup with Liverpool that saw Sunderland defend for 90 minutes and only muster 6 total shots that Defoe contributed a single one of them. Needless to say, box score watchers will assume that Defoe is a play to ignore this week. However, Liverpool is a much better team than Leicester, and the defending champs have shown their holes in the back that could provide Defoe a chance to score a goal or two against them. The veteran Premier League player is severely under priced on FanDuel in what has to be an error, but is still a decent price on DraftKings that I would take a shot on him on some of my teams.

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Victor Anichebe, Forward, $5,500 (DK), $6,600 (FD) – So his price did go up this week as predicted last week, even though he didn’t really do much to warrant that price increase, and as predicted, he really struggled against Liverpool and ended up with 2 points on DK and 6.5 on FD. This week I think he’ll improve on that, I can see double digit points on DK and 20+ on FanDuel. His activity within the team should be noted and he’s a vital part of whatever success they can muster. I think him, Defoe and Watmore all can put some pressure on the Leicester defense that is still trying to play the same style as last season despite missing the one part that made it work, N’golo Kante.

Leicester Top Plays

Islam Slimani, Forward, $6,900 DK, $8,400 – One of the two forwards on this squad that plays a 4-4-2 formation and relies on utilizing the extra space created by the activity of Mahrez and Vardy. Slimani is adept at operating without the ball and can find his way to the open space where his teammates can find him. He scored a goal last weekend making it two goals in two weeks in a row and looks primed to convert once again this week.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Riyad Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, $8,500 (DK), $9,300 (FD) – Speaking of Leicester, another reason for their success last season is Riyad Mahrez and his electric play in the midfield. Last season he created some excellent plays for his team to guide them to winning the championship. How long will I keep milking that line? Until Mahrez does something more than just score penalties. Last week he converted another penalty adding to his tally of both goals scored and penalties scored and bringing the total up to 3. So what would Mahrez have had if it weren’t for that goal scored? 4 and 4.5 points on DK and FD respectively. This is the reality of Mahrez this season. If Leicester doesn’t get a penalty, he’s likely not contributing much to the team fantasy wise. But he still should be on your radar because the team’s style lends itself to getting lots of penalties and they have several players than can bait a defender into committing a foul in the box (Mahrez, Vardy, Slimani)

Tottenham vs Swansea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Tottenham						Swansea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				406						163
				W D D D D W						L L D L L D
				6-6-0						1-3-8
17.42	5.67	10.33	6.42	19.58	16.25	11.33	4.00	15.33	9.75	20.17	20.67
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Kane, Chadli		Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker		Eriksen, Lamela		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson, Routledge, Stephen Kingsley

Tottenham come into this one after losing a 1-0 lead to Chelsea last weekend. The spurs had a rough week prior to this one as they also saw themselves bow out of Champions League competition. They now prepare for a midweek contest with CSKA Moscow where they try to cement themselves in the Europa league to continue playing in Europe. In the meantime, they need to first face Swansea. Swansea are coming off a thriller matchup with Crystal Palace that saw 9 goals in total and saw the team almost lose a commanding 3-1 lead to fall behind 4-3 then rally back and win 5-4. The team is surely exhausted, but they had a week to recover and they might be in store for a hangover in this one against one of the best defensive squads in the league. There are some plays in this one, as both teams have some players to target in all positions.

Tottenham Top Plays

Harry Kane, Forward, $8,700 (DK), $12,700 (FD) – Kane and Sanchez are my top two plays for the week in terms of forwards. On most occasions I think it would be wise to try to fit them both in the same lineup and fill in the rest. Both have good odds to score goals, and Kane himself has one of the highest odds to score a goal at anytime if you look in most betting houses. Kane has four goals in four matches and the ability to score goals in any situation. He rescued some fantasy players a couple of weeks ago with two late goals (and doomed others), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back on the books this week.

Christian Eriksen, Midfielder, $8,400 (DK), $9,400 (FD) – He scored a goal and had 12 crosses last time out to give him a very good point total in both FD and DK. He also added 2 clearances, a chance created, and 3 tackles. Eriksen was able to give a vintage performance. I think he can repeat the feat again this week and if you trust that Swansea will still struggle on defense, then targeting Eriksen this week is a must as Tottenham should be on the offensive most of the time.

Tottenham Secondary Plays

None

Swansea Top Plays

Lukasz Fabianski, Goalkeeper, $3,800 DK, $6,900 FD – He’s the most likely player to see 5+ shots on target and also the most likely goalkeeper to concede this week. His point total will be dependent on how many of those shots on target he can stop and whether he can conjure up a way to not lose too badly. The chances for a clean sheet are slim, and the chances for a win are even slimmer. But I like Fabianski as a tournament option for goalkeeper position.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder, $8,600 DK, $8,400 FD – Sigurdsson is in a tougher matchup this week than last one where he had plenty of crosses and a goal and assist to go along with them on his way to one of the highest scoring outputs of the week. With a matchup against Tottenham you’re more likely to get 12 points than 40, but if he does get a goal or if Swansea gets a penalty kick, Siggy will reach the 15-20 point range easily and that might be just enough to separate you from other options out there.

West Bromwich Albion vs Watford

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Bromwich Albion						Watford
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
										144
				D D L L W W						D W D W L W
				4-4-4						5-3-4
11.17	3.67	13.33	8.50	19.17	21.58	11.25	3.83	14.58	8.08	17.58	25.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Berahino, Rondon, Gardner		Gardner, Rondon, McClean		Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Berahino		Deeney, Ighalo		Abdi		Watson, Abdi, Capoue, Holebas

WBA and Watford play this match in what is expected to be a dull affair. Both teams tend to play slower football with methodical build up and fear of mistakes. West Brom have added a recent attacking element and will look to take advantage of that in order to mix things up a bit. Watford are a surprising performer this season as they find themselves up to 8th in the table ahead of the likes of Leicester, Southampton, West Ham, Crystal Palace and West Brom themselves. This matchup between the 8th and 9th ranked player should prove interesting as neither team wants to lose this one, but West Brom want to walk out winners.

West Bromwich Albion Top Plays

Matt Phillips, Midfielder, $6,700 DK, $6,000 FD – Phillips is the primary corner kick taker for this West Brom team that is playing at home against a Watford squad that gives up a lot of corners. He’s priced at just 6K on FanDuel and 6.7K on DraftKings making him affordable on both sites depending on roster construction.

West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays

Gareth McCauley, Defender, $5,300 FD – McCauley is a FanDuel special due to the special scoring that exists on there that favors central defenders. West Brom should have more command of this matchup since they’re playing at home, but the central defenders will still have a lot of work to do which gives McCauley plenty of value on a site that adds clearances and blocks as part of their scoring algorithm.

Craig Dawson, Defender, $4,700 DK, $5,300 FD – For DraftKings, I actually think that Dawson has potential for some good statistics since he gets tackles and interceptions. Priced at just 4700 he’s cheap for his points. His last few games he’s had a mix of crosses, tackles, interceptions, as well as sprinkling in some shots.

Watford Top Plays

Etienne Capoue, Midfielder, $6,500 DK, $8,100 FD – One of the highlights of this Watford team and likely the reason they’ve made it this high in the table after 13 matches is Capoue. Capoue plays as a defensive midfielder and also advances enough on offense to support the attack. Capoue also carries value on FanDuel because of his abilities to court defensive stats that can come in handy based on that scoring system.

Watford Secondary Plays

None

Crystal Palace vs Southampton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Crystal Palace						Southampton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				192						120
				D L L L L L						D W D L L D
				3-2-7						3-5-4
14.25	4.08	13.25	8.17	28.08	20.83	15.33	5.25	10.42	6.75	24.33	18.33
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham		Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney		Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley		Tadic, Bertrand, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Van Dijk		Ward-Prowse, Tadic, Davis, Bertrand

The losers from last weekend’s thriller are Palace as they come back home to host Southampton. Palace have now lost 7 straight matches and face the impossible task of climbing out of that funk with the crew they have. As an added blow to the team, they lost Connor Wickham for the season with a knee injury. Alan Pardew now has to make due with an expanded injury list that is leaving him scrambling at the back. Southampton, the visitors, are facing similar troubles with missing Dusan Tadic and Matt Targett. Southampton are facing different pressures as they look to climb into contention for a spot in Europe next year and will try to take advantage of a visit to reeling Palace in order to move one step closer to the top echelon of teams.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Ezekiel Fryers, Defender, $3,400 DK, $3,700 FD – Early indications are that Fryers will be started for Alan Pardew. Fryers is priced at a mere $3.4K on DK and $3.7K on FD. Both those prices would enable you to roster anyone you like on both sites. There is some risk with him as he’s an unknown, but at a low price he should carry similar point totals to previous Palace full backs such as Kelly and Ward.

Wilfried Zaha, Midfielder, $7,100 DK, $6,500 FD – throughout the entire time that Palace has been going through their rough losing patch, Zaha scored a goal last week and has assists in 4 straight matches prior to that. Zaha has the ability to control the midfield and dominate the flow of the match and playing at home Zaha can put up a good point total, moreover, his price is cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings which makes him a better play there, but I would still use him as a midfielder on DraftKings if not a flex option.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Christian Benteke, Forward, $7,100 DK, $6,900 FD – Benteke has been scoring goals lately with the game’s fourth goal last week, and in the previous six matches he has 20 goal attempts including 10 headers, and 8 shots on target. He’s in line for a potential goal especially playing at home.

Southampton Top Plays

Jose Fonte, Defender, $3,500 DK, $5,300 FD – Fonte should be getting the start in this matchup against Palace at full back which gives him a chance to get some points on DraftKings for cheap, and he can form a cheap tandem with Fryers to give you more room to build a lineup that fits multiple high priced players together. Fonte won’t set the world on fire nor will he break the bank, but he’s a good player to target for his cheap price on both FD and DK.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Charlie Austin, Forward, $7,900 DK, $8,200 FD – Austin had a break in the midweek matchup with Arsenal where Southampton came away 2-0 winners in the EFL Round of 16, but before that he did score last weekend against Everton in the first minute and Austin is emerging the premier striker for this Saints team that he was in QPR prior to leaving them last season. Look for Austin to try to take advantage of this Crystal Palace team that is highly susceptible to free kicks and set pieces which Austin has taken 7 shots from set pieces and scored one goal out of 41 total shots resulting in 8 goals.

West Ham vs Arsenal

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Ham						Arsenal
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				601						-234
				D W W L D L						W W D W D D
				3-2-7						7-4-1
14.25	2.75	13.33	8.83	21.08	19.50	14.33	4.75	10.33	6.33	19.25	18.08
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Noble, Carroll		Payet, Zarate, Noble, Cresswell, Valencia		Payet, Zarate, Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell,		Walcott, Cazorla, Sanchez		Sanchez, Cazorla, Chambers, Walcott		Cazorla, Sanchez, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain

West Ham play host to an Arsenal squad that is playing very well right now. Arsenal hasn’t lost in the Premier League in 12 matches having won or drawn in 12 successive ties in the campaign. Meanwhile, Arsenal did rest a good portion of their players in the midweek EFL cup match with Southampton and thus, should find the majority of their player refreshed for this visit to London Stadium. West Ham on the other hand have had some trouble this season so far and find themselves barely out of the relegation zone sitting at 16th place with just 12 points in 13 matches. They bowed out of the EFL cup this weekend as well having lost to Manchester United 4-1 and are looking to gather a point or three from hosting Arsenal this week. It will be a tough matchup for this team, and they’ll likely come away with a defeat to the visitors, but they’ll put up a good fight in what should be an entertaining match.

West Ham Top Plays

Darren Randolph, Goalkeeper, $4,100 DK, $5,700 FD – The home underdog this week is Darren Randolph who faces an Arsenal squad that averages 10% more shots a game than league average giving Randolph more opportunities to get saves and potentially more points to raise his floor and his ceiling alike. Randloph is the premier player to target if you want to save up on goalkeepers on draftkings.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Dimitri Payet, Midfielder, $8,600 DK, $9,700 FD – A secondary option in this matchup because of his set piece duty and the amount of corners/free kicks that he will end up taking. Playing at home West Ham should have some opportunities to put the pressure on Arsenal, albeit, they’ll be fewer than they’re used to. Payet is a tournament option as he’s got a tough matchup but is still the premier player to target from West Ham United if you want to target the Arsenal defense that has allowed a goal in each of their last 4 matches.

Arsenal Top Plays

Alexis Sanchez, Midfielder/Forward, $9,700 DK, $12,800 FD – If Sanchez starts as the striker, he’s the second most likely goal scorer this weekend after the aforementioned Kane. Sanchez carries the skills necessary to score a goal or two and facing a defense such as West Ham, he should have a good well rounded match with shots, chances created and potentially goals or assists.

Arsenal Secondary Plays

There is a sense that Giroud may get the start, in which case I make the case for him to fit into the second player to take from this Arsenal squad. Unfortunately though, this is the late match which makes it harder to predict whether he’s worth targeting or not. He’s priced in a way that make any replacement player have lesser upside. I like the idea of targeting Ozil, but he hasn’t delivered the goal scoring upside we want from a player of his price tag, meaning that there is likely no option on this squad other than Sanchez that we feel comfortable targeting this week, especially if Sanchez starts as the striker.