EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 15

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:06:29

With this Saturday slate we officially welcome the short weeks of the holidays. This coming period for these teams will be turmoil if the coaches don’t have a solid plan to deal with fatigue and squad rotation. Most of these players are going to be playing on 3-4 days of rest until the end of January and some will get injured making way for some value plays. So more than any other week, it’ll be important to take note of the starting lineups and formations for these teams as they will change the potential value plays and which teams to target. The good news is that we’re here for you. If you’re up early building lineups (and you should be, if you’re reading this to prepare for your matches) then head on over to the Marketplace where I’ll be hanging out for an hour and a half prior to lock answering questions and helping you make those last minute decisions building your lineups. If you haven’t heard, we’ve recently changed up the coverage on the Marketplace content adding the Daily Fantasy Hat-Trick, a video that covers three options in each position for the slate, as well as rankings, projections, and a slate specific strategy section helping you break down the slate and matchups, not to mention the chat room where I’ll be hanging out Saturday morning answering questions and trying to help you build some winning lineups.

If you have any questions or comments on the plays this week, feel free to leave a message or reach out to me on Twitter

Swansea vs Sunderland

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Swansea						Sunderland
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				107						291
				D L L D W L						L L W W L W
				2-3-9						3-2-9
11.07	4.00	16.00	10.14	20.43	20.29	9.79	2.71	19.36	11.21	16.00	24.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson, Routledge, Stephen Kingsley		Borini, Defoe, Watmore		Khazri, Van Aanholt		Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt

In a battle between two teams currently bound for relegation, we find that the matchup might be one of the more intriguing ones of the slate. Both teams have shown some offensive renaissance in recent weeks. Both teams also have the ability to allow plenty of goals in a short amount of time. Both teams had matchups against teams that are considered among the elite, but that’s where the similarities end. Sunderland were able to defeat Leicester last time out, meanwhile Swansea lost handily to Tottenham 5-0 in a show of force by the Spurs that left the Welsh club scrambling. Coming into this week, Bob Bradley is looking for answers, and he might make some changes in his starting line. On the other side, Sunderland learned that Duncan Watmore will miss the entire season with a knee injury, that won’t affect their recent formation though, that has seen them win 3 of their last four matches thanks to top performances by Anichebe, Defoe, and Patrick Van Aanholt. This matchup should remain close, but I favor the home team to come away with a result in this one.

Swansea Top Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder, $8,800 FD and DK – Siggy is one of those players that can deliver a 20 point performances without any goals or assists scored, simply by adding his crosses, shots and chances created he can reach that high floor easily on both sites. His price is the same on both sites making him an easy target on either one. In the matchup with Sunderland, Swansea will rely heavily on Siggy to bring the team a win and his return to his preferred number 10 role for this match will help his performance and should bring manager Bob Bradley a win to help them climb out of the basement.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Kyle Naughton, Defender, $4,500 DK, $5,300 FD – Naughton carries a middle of the pack price tag but has high performance potential off of peripherals alone as he routinely ventures forward as part of the offense and contributes in that way. He also is able to contribute on defensive stats through tackles, interceptions and the like making him a decent option on both sites for a defender.

Sunderland Top Plays

Patrick Van Aanholt, Defender, $5,500 DK, $5,600 FD – With the injury to Watmore, both Van Aanholt and Anichebe have picked up the slack and have now been major components of the Sunderland resurgence of the last few weeks where they won 3 of 4 matches in the Premier League. If they continue that trend, they should find themselves moving out of the relegation zone and into safey before Christmas.

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Jermain Defoe, Forward, $7,100 DK, $7,400 FD – Defoe gets relegated to secondary option today because of his playing on the road and the uncertainty that comes with that. Of course, Swansea have a weak defense that can allow a goal or two to the top striker on a team that is firing at the moment.

Arsenal vs Stoke

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Arsenal						Stoke
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-335						1148
				D W D D W W						W W D L W W
				9-4-1						5-4-5
14.79	5.00	10.21	6.36	18.93	18.64	12.14	3.43	13.57	8.21	18.14	21.21
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Walcott, Cazorla, Sanchez		Sanchez, Cazorla, Chambers, Walcott		Cazorla, Sanchez, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain		Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Shaqiri, Adam, Arnautovic		Shaqiri, Bojan, Adam, Arnautovic.

The next game this week brings us Stoke visiting Arsenal. Arsenal go into this matchup with full confidence in what they can accomplish against this visiting Stoke team. Arsenal finished up last weekend with a 5-1 win against West Ham to keep pace with leaders Chelsea and remain just 3 points behind them. Arsenal need to continue their winning ways in order to not fall behind even further and hope to catch up with Chelsea in case the leaders struggle on Sunday against West Brom. Stoke on the other hand come into this matchup as one of the best form teams in the league having 13 points from their last six match and ready to challenge Arsenal for the hope to win this matchup. Arsenal will probably dominate possession in this one and force Stoke into making defensive plays. The visitors are still without their captain Ryan Shawcross which hurts them on defense a bit. Arsenal on the other hand may not have Giroud back for this one and would rely on Alexis, Walcott, Ozil and Ramsey up front. Those four can do the job for them.

Arsenal Top Plays

Alexis Sanchez, M/F, $10,500 DK, $14,200 FD – We’re starting the most expensive forward on both sites as Sanchez makes it very clear that he’s a force to be reckoned with. The Chilean scored a hat-trick last time out and will now face a Stoke team that is susceptible to defensive lapses. Sanchez is extremely expensive and for this slate, he might be worth it if you can make him fit. There should be enough value showing up here today that will allow you to fit him in if you decide to go that direction.

Petr Cech, Goalkeeper, $5,700 DK, $6,500 FD – To go along with the most expensive outfield player, I also included the most expensive goalkeeper. Cech will probably not face a lot of shots on his goal forcing him into any saves, but he will be eligible for a win and clean sheet as Stoke should have trouble with this Arsenal squad making Cech a very safe high floor option for the Saturday matchup.

Arsenal Secondary Plays

Mesut Ozil, Midfielder, $9,600 DK, $10,700 FD – If you decide to stack Arsenal, Ozil will probably be a low owned option because the majority will either take Sanchez or go down to Walcott or Iwobi. Few will take Ozil and he has just as good a chance as any of the forward players to score a goal or assist and even record some assists for this squad in this matchup.

Stoke Top Plays

Bruno Martins Indi, Defender, $4,700 FD – With Arsenal expected to dominate possession, Bruno Martins Indi should get plenty of defender specific points against the Gunners. I like him to get some tackles, clearances, interceptions, blocks and passes for a team that will look to try to avoid a heavy humiliating defeat at the hands of the home team.

Stoke Secondary Plays

None

Burnley vs Bournemouth

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Burnley						Bournemouth
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				229						137
				W D W L L L						D L L W L W
				4-2-8						5-3-6
9.14	2.57	19.71	10.93	17.50	26.71	12.00	3.93	14.29	8.36	17.79	20.36
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Sam Vokes, Andre Gray		Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson, Steven Defour		Steven Defour, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson		Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas		Ibe, Arter, Gradel		King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels

Bournemouth are coming into this one hoping to build on their surprise 4-3 win over Liverpool last week. Because of that performance and because of them being involved in some quality results against high profile matchups, there is an expectation that they’ll come into this matchup on the road at Burnley and come away with a win. However, if you look at Bournemouth’s record in their last few road bouts, you’ll see that they aren’t exactly world beaters away from home. They have just a single win in their last six and that came against Stoke with the narrow margin of a single goal to nil. Meanwhile, this Burnley team has had some convincing wins at home against some tough teams such as Everton, Crystal Palace and Liverpool. This matchup will likely end up being more even than otherwise with a narrow margin for one of the teams ending in a result that could go either way.

Burnley Top Plays

Tom Heaton, Goalkeeper, $4,300 DK, $6,700 FD – Heaton should be back from injury this week, prior to his injury he was the league leader in saves and if he returns to previous form, he’ll continue right where he left off. He’s probably the best chance that Burnley have at winning this match if Heaton stands on his head, which would help him getting saves and even the potential win for the points on DraftKings.

Burnley Secondary Plays

Ben Mee, Defender, $5,500 FD – Mee is a Fanduel specific play as he’s one of the top defenders there and his price is much cheaper than comparable players. For a team that is expected to be on the defensive, I like to target a center back that has shown the ability to get the defensive stats that matter on Fanduel, making Mee and his partner Keaton two of the top defensive plays on Fanduel.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Ryan Fraser, Midfielder, $4,100 DK, $3,300 FD – Fraser has been a regular for this team in recent weeks and has been performing tremendously for them. He had a great goal last time out against Liverpool and turned the match when he came on and scored and recorded an assist in the win over the Reds. Fraser is a very cheap play on both sites and worth consideration for all game types.

Adam Smith, Defender, $5,100 DK, $5,600 FD – Smith ranks high in the projections because of his general attacking mentality and because of the matchup with Burnley that should favor Bournemouth. Smith has been fairly consistent on both FD and DK with roughly 20 fantasy points on FD and close to double digits on DK pretty regularly.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Callum Wilson, Forward, $6,600 DK, $7,000 FD – If Bournemouth were to score any goals against the worst defense in the league, they’ll probably be going through Callum Wilson. He does have goals in two straight games which gives him some interesting potential making him a viable play for this slate.

Hull vs Crystal Palace

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Hull						Crystal Palace
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				219						142
				L L W L D L						L L L L L W
				3-2-9						4-2-8
9.14	2.86	19.64	11.14	17.50	24.21	13.71	4.07	13.93	8.71	26.29	22.21
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hernandez, Snodgrass		Snodgrass		Snodgrass, Huddlestone		Cabaye, Gayle, Wickham		Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney		Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley

Hull have an interesting record this season. They’ve consistently surprised us with their results. Wins against Southampton, Leicester and Swansea, and draws against West Brom, and Burnley have shown the good side of the team, meanwhile losses by 3 goals or more against the likes of Sunderland and Bournemouth along with more expected opponents such as Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal have shown the expected Hull performances we envisioned at the start of the season. The team is a Jekyll and Hyde of football and it shows. Their performances have improved at home in recent weeks and they are coming off a win and a draw which makes them interesting to target at home this week against Crystal Palace. Palace, on the other hand are coming off their first win in a long time. Prior to their win against Southampton 3-0 last weekend, they had gone through a stretch of 7 matches without a win dating back to late September. Will they carry that performance over to this week? They didn’t have trouble scoring in recent weeks as they’ve typically been involved in shootouts, and they have their midfield and forward to thank for that. Ultimately, I think Palace prevails easily in this matchup giving themselves another win to propel them closer to the top half of the table.

Hull Top Plays

David Marshall, Goalkeeper, $4,600 DK, $6,100 FD – Marshall is one of the top goalkeepers on this slate because of the potential that Crystal Palace’s offense has in this matchup as they are expected to take the second most shots in this one. Marshall should have the upside of saves allowing him to score big points regardless of the final outcome of the match.

Curtis Davies, Defender, $6,100 FD – Davies is listed for only fanduel because his skills and the fanduel scoring algorithm. Davies excels at the fanduel scoring and has the floor of 15-20 fantasy points with the upside of 30+.

Hull Secondary Plays

Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $7,900 DK, $7,000 FD – He’s the most talented player on this squad and would be my pick for scoring a goal if I had to choose one from the Tigers. Snodgrass will be a major part of the home team’s attck strategy as they look to get a win here against the visiting Eagles.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Christian Benteke, Forward, $7,500 DK, $7,400 FD – Not a lot of people like to target Benteke citing his inconsistency and general low floor. I believe that with him, the situation couldn’t get any better as he prepares to face Hull in a matchup that should feature some goals. Benteke is listed as my top forward given the price in my player rankings over in the marketplace.

Wilfried Zaha, Midfielder, $7,800 DK, $6,200 FD – Zaha gets the nod here because of his role on the team in recent weeks. He had a string of multiple games with an assist before that streak was broken last week. He’s still a top player on this team and is a dynamo for the squad and should be part of their offense in this one.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Jason Puncheon, Midfielder, $6,800 DK, $6,200 FD – Puncheon gets the nod here because of his low price and general role on the team. Puncheon also has no goals so far this season on 14 shots. While his shot total has gone down, he is still a vital part of this offense and should eventually convert that first goal in the right moment.

Leicester vs Manchester City

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Leicester						Manchester City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				444						-143
				W D L L D L						D W D W W L
				3-4-7						9-3-2
11.07	3.00	14.14	8.14	19.36	20.21	17.29	5.64	8.79	5.07	21.50	15.29
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Mahrez, Vardy		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray		Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray		Aguero, Toure, De Bruyne, Bony, Kolarov		Toure, Kolarov, De Bruyne, Silva		De Bruyne, Silva, Kolarov, Navas, Nasri, Sterling

The defending champs are in deep trouble. They got hammered in the midweek against Porto in the Champions League, they only have three wins in the Premier League and 7 losses leaving them with just 13 points on the season and dropping them all the way down to 16th place. In fact, this is the team that many people expected to see last season in the Premier League, and somehow, they managed to go a whole season without showing that side of them. And now they get to host Manchester City at the King Power, who come in here as very heavy favorites for an away team. City, for their part are going through their own issues at the moment. After a damaging defeat to Chelsea last time out that saw them lose Aguero and Fernandinho to suspensions due to red cards, they went on and weren’t able to get a win against Celtic in the final matchday of the group stages in the Champions League. They did manage to get some rest for their key players so the likes of David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne will be rested in this match. This match should feature some goals from both sides with City likely coming away with a win, though, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the defending champs pull one back and start the process of repairing their season prospects.

Leicester Top Plays

Ron-Robert Zieler, Goalkeeper, $4,000 DK, $5,600 FD – Facing a team that should take plenty of shots at home puts Zieler in a very good situation that warrants consideration. Zieler should face the most shots on target on Saturday’s slate and that gives him the highest upside of any goalkeeper on the slate. He should face multiple shots on target and even if he concedes goals, he’s going to still get points for any potential saves that he gets that would override the goals scored.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Jamie Vardy, Forward, $6,600 DK, $8,100 FD – Leicester won’t hold a lot of the possession here, so the logical play to make is to take a shot on one of the players who can do damage without touching the ball much. That player is Jamie Vardy who is very skilled at being at the right place at the right time and would be able to take advantage of some spotty City defense that has allowed multiple goals in recent weeks including 3 goals to Chelsea last weekend mostly off of well executed fast breaks. Combining Vardy with Slimani or Mahrez would be an ideal combination as it has a high potential of taking advantage of both the assist and goal.

Manchester City Top Plays

Kelechi Iheanacho, Forward, $7,200 DK, $9,400 FD – Priced rather cheap on DraftKings, Iheanacho should get the start as a lone forward for City in this one in the absence of Aguero. There is a distinct possibility that Nolito starts in his place, and a further possibility that both Iheanacho and Nolito start together, but that is unlikely. With Iheanacho, the team gets a big forward who can bully his way through the defenses and score in a crowd, giving City an edge they don’t have with Aguero in the lineup.

Kevin De Bruyne, Midfielder, $9,800 DK, $10,900 FD – Kevin De Bruyne will benefit the most from the Leicester defensive scheme which pulls them back on defense and forces the other team to beat them by breaking down a thick wall of defense. KDB excels in these situations where he has to use his dribbling skills and taking advantage of the passing lanes. KDB is the top midfielder on the slate regardless of salary and should have close to the highest point total among midfielders on this slate.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Ilkay Gundogan, Midfielder, $5,300 DK, $7,200 FD – Gundogan comes into this matchup as one of the potential key contributors for this City team as he looks to establish a consistent role on the team. He still hasn’t carved out a consistent fantasy role on the team where he produces consistent fantasy results week in and week out. But he’s a very talented player and would be worth a roster spot if he does get the start. Also worth considering are David Silva and Yaya Toure as either of them can contribute to this team on offense and score a goal from nothing.

Raheem Sterling, Forward, $8,300 DK, $9,700 FD – Sterling might be getting called on to do more without Aguero in the lineup as the team looks to exploit a Leicester squad that, as mentioned earlier, likes to give up possession in favor of the counter attack. Sterling is a talented and skilled player, who would be worth the roster spot, if he gets the start for Pep Guardiola’s team.