EPL Grind Down: Week 21
Welcome to another week of English Premier League soccer. This week we have six matches that feature some interesting matchups. The Grind Down will be your guide for each matchup and will go through each game with the intent of trying to break down the game and try to give you an edge when building your lineup. This is not a picks article, as I will not give a player or two that you ‘have to have’. In DFS, any player is capable of surpassing expectations on a given day, and every player is capable of not meeting their own expectations. This guide should help you better understand how the match should flow and should aid you in making your decisions when the lineups come out on Saturday morning.
If you want some more DFS soccer content, be sure to check out the marketplace where I provide my personal rankings, and projections, for both players and teams. I also film a video piece, the Daily Fantasy Hat-Trick where I give the top three players in each position. In addition to all that, there is a weekly soccer strategy section as well as a chat room to discuss lineup decisions with other DFS players. I’m online Saturday morning answering questions about lineups for those who log on as we break down the lineups an hour prior to lock every Saturday.
If you’ve got any more questions after you’ve done all that, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter, or come hang out in the chat.
Bournemouth vs Watford
| Bournemouth | Watford | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -122 | 388 | ||||||||||
| W L L W D L | L L D L L D | ||||||||||
| 7-4-10 | 6-5-10 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.62 | 4.19 | 14.14 | 8.57 | 17.52 | 20.62 | 10.71 | 3.62 | 13.57 | 7.90 | 19.29 | 23.05 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas | Stanislas, Ibe, Wilson, Arter | Stanislas, Fraser, Daniels | Deeney, Ighalo | Abdi | Watson, Abdi, Capoue, Holebas | ||||||
When two teams in the bottom half of the table battle it out, the edge usually lies with the home team. In this case, Bournemouth carry a slight edge over Watford this week in their matchup as part of Matchday 22. The Cherries come into this match with a 2 point edge in the standings as well as they currently sit at 11th place with 25 points having 7 points out of their last possible 18. Meanwhile, Watford come into this one with 23 points and in 14th place with just 2 points out of their last possible 18. Watford are not in an enviable position as they failed to get a win in their last match at home against Middlesbrough and fell victims to Stoke on the road in the match before that 0-2. The team has been lining up in a 3-5-2 or different variations to that general approach giving them more ability to withstand attacks as well as giving them an opportunity to initiate a controlled push forward. Bournemouth are not the team to take lightly at home though as they are a solid team at home with a positive goal difference and an overall record of 5-2-3. In their last few matches Bournemouth has been solid at home. They managed seven goals in their last three including 3 at home against Arsenal where they wasted a golden opportunity to beat the Gunners at home after going up 3-0 in the 58th minute before Arsenal came back to finish the match on a 3-3 draw, highlighting some of the problems that Bournemouth suffer from. Nevertheless, Watford are not Arsenal, and Bournemouth should emerge victorious from this one.
One thing to consider from this match is that Heurelho Gomes, the keeper for Watford, left the last match injured and will likely miss this bout. Costel Pantillimon will probably start in his place.
Bournemouth Top Plays
Junior Stanislas, Midfielder, $6,700 DK, $5,900 FD – He has scored a goal or an assist in each of his last 3 matches and is currently the most effective player on this team. He’s likely to go into this one with ambition to score once again. Another factor to consider is that Stanislas is one of just two penalty kick takers on this squad, with the other being Callum Wilson who didn’t get the start in his last two matches leaving the main PK duty to Stanislas (he scored off one one last time)
Charlie Daniels, Defender, $5,100 DK, $6,100 FD – If you decide that you want to spend up on defenders, then Charlie Daniels should be a perfect player to select in this case. Daniels has the upside of goals and assists with this team as he’s delivered in the past. He’s also the second option for penalty kicks (and could overtake Stanislas as the first option). Moreover, last week he had the most touches of anybody on this Bournemouth squad as they lost to Hull.
Bournemouth Secondary Plays
Benik Afobe, Forward, $5,400 DK, $6,800 FD – The assumption is that Afobe will get the start for the third straight match. In his previous 2 starts he managed a goal and took a total of five shots with four on target, making Afobe one of the candidates for our second forward spot this week. Afobe could also fit into a cheap utility spot on DraftKings if the salary fits. His fit is for tournaments only as he’s unlikely to produce a large amount of peripheral points outside of shots on either site. If Afobe doesn’t get the start, in favor of Callum Wilson, then feel free to slot Wilson into this spot while knowing that his price is higher thus making him more prohibitive to roster.
Watford Top Plays
None
Watford Secondary Plays
Jose Holebas, Defender, $5,200 DK, $5,500 FD – Holebas gets the nod here because of his role on the team and the fact that Bournemouth aren’t necessarily going to shut down Watford completely, leaving the door open for some standout performances. It’s tough to predict a goal for Deeney or anybody else who may start up front, but I can predict that activity and touches that Holebas will get in the final third. Holebas will likely be the most active player for Watford on a left flank to put pressure on a Bournemouth defense that could struggle to slow him down. He’s priced relatively high that I would likely not have any exposure to him in cash games, but for tournaments if you predict the upset, I wouldn’t be against pairing him with a Watford forward to go after a goal and assist combination.
Costel Pantilimon, Goalkeeper, $3,900 DK, $5,400 FD – Pantilimon is listed solely due to the price difference between him and Gomes on FanDuel. With Gomes’ injury, Pantilimon will get the start this weekend and for $600 savings you could roster a keeper who is may get to face plenty of shots and could end up with a decent amount of saves with a low ownership. He’s not on my radar for DraftKings and I will likely not roster him there in any format, while he may still make it on some of my FanDuel lineups for tournaments.
Crystal Palace vs Everton
| Crystal Palace | Everton | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 227 | 135 | ||||||||||
| L L D L L L | W L W D W W | ||||||||||
| 4-4-13 | 9-6-6 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.05 | 3.81 | 14.05 | 8.71 | 23.48 | 21.52 | 12.71 | 4.62 | 11.71 | 6.71 | 21.14 | 20.52 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham | Cabaye, Puncheon, Ward, Townsend | Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley | Baines, Barkley, Mirallas | Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Deulofeu | Mirallas, Baines, Barkley, Deulofeu | ||||||
Crystal Palace has been active over the January transfer window with the acquisition of Jeffrey Schlupp, and there are more rumors of still some extra activity to come. The team is without star midfielder Wilfried Zaha as he’s down in the African Cup of Nations at the moment, so Andros Townsend is starting in his place. Townsend has a lot to prove for his new boss Big Sam Allardyce as he’s trying to keep his Crystal Palace career alive. In the grand scheme of things, Crystal Palace are trying to keep their season alive, where they currently sit at 16 points in 17th place and tied in points with the relegation zone Hull. Palace will need a home win in this encounter to begin the long road to recovery. Their opponents are a tough one, Everton have won four of six and most recently dismantled Manchester City to the tune of 4 goals to nil in a show of domination over the title contenders. Everton come into this one ripe with expectations and it could end up being a perfect match for disappointment for them that would mirror the general trajectory of the season that has seen them lose to Watford on the road three days before beating Arsenal. In the first leg of this match, both teams escaped with a 1-1 draw after goals from Benteke and Lukaku. Neither team will take a large amount of shots as the projections show a total of 21-23 shots with Everton taking just 5 more shots than their opponents (13.6-8.1).
Crystal Palace Top Plays
Yohane Cabaye, Midfielder, $5,900 DK, $5,900 FD – Without Zaha on the team, a big part of the possession in the midfield has gone to the French international. On top of that, Cabaye played a more advanced role on the team without Zaha making him a likely candidate for a boost in fantasy performance. While we didn’t see any immediate results last weekend in the 3-0 loss to West Ham, Cabaye did however see his touches increase from roughly 30-40% of them coming in the opponent’s half with only 10-15 total touches coming in the final third per game, to more than 50% of his touches coming in the opponents half last time out with almost 20 in the final third. This increase will reflect in his opportunities as he now has more chances to deliver a solid fantasy outing. And for the price of just under $6K he’s a good play on both sites.
Crystal Palace Secondary Plays
Andros Townsend, Midfielder, $6,600 DK, $5,200 FD – Townsend has been challenged by his manager (albeit not publicly, but ‘sources say’), and he’s got an opportunity with the absence of Zaha to prove himself. When players are faced with tough times they either come through with flying colors, or they fold. Townsend has a matchup he can exploit here as both these teams could run back and forth with a lot of action in the midfield that would greatly increase his potential for touches and in turn, fantasy points. Townsend is not a sure thing though as he can deliver single digit points. He did however have 14 crosses in the FA cup match with Bolton on Wednesday to go along with an assist so it’s proof of his activity and “figuring it out”. He’s more expensive on DraftKings, but I would take a chance on him on either site.
Christian Benteke, Forward, $6,800 DK, $8,000 FD – He came alive this week with a brace against Bolton off the bench in the FA cup to see his side through. Benteke hadn’t scored a goal for club in six matches, and in that span the team was able to gather just 1 point out of a possible 18 which saw the club drop to their current table position. Expect Benteke to get some shots here, and for Big Sam to find ways to keep him involved. Since the arrival of Allardyce to South London, Benteke has continued to struggle with the team in which he has only recorded 4 shots on target in a span of 6 weeks. The performance off the bench this week might be a turning point that could lead to a return to form that helps Palace get their groove back though which puts Benteke squarely in the tournament view.
Everton Top Plays
Kevin Mirallas, Midfielder, $6,000 DK, $4,800 FD – Mirallas comes into this match following a performance against Manchester City where he scored and assisted on the team’s way to a 4-0 victory. This match is looking to be a solid midfield battle which increases the possession in the midfield which gives Mirallas some extra touches in which he can make something happen. He’s been delivering open play crosses and getting in position to score goals. He’s priced really cheap on FanDuel and relatively cheap on DraftKings that he’s one play you can afford to take on both sites.
Romelu Lukaku, Forward, $7,600 DK, $11,800 FD – It’s rare that we see such a disparity in pricing across the sites for a player who is in such good form. Lukaku has four goals in his last five matches and 12 goals overall in this campaign, yet he’s the 7th highest priced forward on DraftKings and the fourth highest priced on FanDuel. He’s not quite a must play here, but he’s in a very solid spot and he’s also a player who tends to go through hot and cold spells and he seems to be in one of his hot spells at the moment.
Everton Secondary Plays
Tom Davies, Midfielder, $3,500 DK, $4,100 FD – While the youngster has gotten off to a hot start in his career after getting his first career start he also managed his first career goal against City in his second start. The reality though is that the team just signed veteran Morgan Schneiderlin and the expectation is that he will get the start eventually over Davies (though maybe they start together). This uncertainty in his starting status makes this a tricky prospect to recommend. I do believe that Everton will consider a youth movement here and try to keep their team fresh as the season progresses. So is he a good play for fantasy? On DraftKings I would caution against starting him blindly as he is unlikely to score a goal again (even though he was routinely pushing forward with the attack against City), he will however have to find himself a niche on this team and if he starts in an advanced role then he gets my vote. If he starts as a defensive mid or in the double-pivot spot with Schneiderlin then he likely only carries merit on FanDuel. If FanDuel starts in a 4-3-3 without Davies, I will be looking to Barkley or Mirallas as the attacking portion of the midfield three in my lineup. It all depends on how the team lines up on Saturday.
Middlesbrough vs West Ham
| Middlesbrough | West Ham | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 151 | 222 | ||||||||||
| L W L L D D | W W W L L W | ||||||||||
| 4-8-9 | 7-4-10 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.90 | 2.33 | 14.05 | 8.57 | 19.29 | 22.05 | 13.95 | 3.33 | 13.67 | 9.14 | 19.71 | 20.76 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Ramirez, Downing | Ramirez, Downing | Downing, Ramirez, Friend | Noble, Carroll, Payet | Antonio, Lanzini, Noble, Payet | Payet, Lanzini, Noble | ||||||
Despite having what could be considered a top five defense in the league, Middlesbrough have had a rough go at it in recent weeks having lost three of their last six and drawn in two more. Their only win coming against lowly Swansea. However, if you narrow your scope down to just home games, Middlesbrough have been serviceable in their last few home bouts with the win against Swansea among them, they also were able to hold Leicester to a 0-0 draw. They play host this week to a West Ham team that is out to prove that they are better than the sum of their parts after it is becoming more apparent that Dimitri Payet will not play on this squad while he continues his dispute and public demands for a transfer. West Ham were able to overcome all that with a 3-0 win against Crystal Palace without Payet last time out and with Michail Antonio assisting on three different goals to three different goal scorers. Antonio and to a lesser extent Feghouli and Cresswell took over the role that Payet played on this team. Middlesbrough are not a dominant offensive team, they have solid defense fundamentals but the team lacks the creativity in the midfield to really feed their striker Negredo in solid positions. Nevertheless, Negredo has managed five goals on the season but those came in only three matches highlighting the difficulty in which this team is capable of getting quality shots (or shots at all).
Middlesbrough Top Plays
Calum Chambers, Defender, $5,900 FD – Chambers and his teammates Bernardo and Gibson all carry the same potential if Middlesbrough line up again in a 5-3-2 this week with the three central defenders acting as a backline. This will invite some long passes from West Ham that will lead to clearances, blocks and tackles for the defensive three. Chambers, as the most skilled among these three gets my nod here, albeit only for FanDuel as blocks and clearances aren’t accounted for on DraftKings.
Middlesbrough Secondary Plays
George Friend, Defender, $4,700 DK, $5,500 FD – Friend gets a shout out here because of his aggressive offensive game and his willingness to push forward as part of the attack. In addition to that, he’s a staple in the midfield for this team when they line up in a 3-5-2. Friend has the potential for a double digit outing on DraftKings or a 20 point outing on FanDuel, although it’s tough to feel overly confident when his array of fantasy points rarely ventures far from the 5-10 fantasy point range.
West Ham Top Plays
Manuel Lanzini, Midfielder, $5,200 DK, $6,300 FD
Sofiane Feghouli, Midfielder, $5,000 DK, $4,800 FD
The two of these are likely to play similar roles as they did last time out in the attacking midfield. I like them along with Antonio, but Antonio is too expensive to consider in my opinion against a team as stout defensively as Middlesbrough. The midfield will likely be a back and forth affair which helps attacking midfielders who have pace. Feghouli and Lanzini both have that and if they get their chances can deliver. I wouldn’t consider either of these players a must play, but the potential is there for a cheap value play in a tournament.
West Ham Secondary Plays
Aaron Cresswell, Defender, $4,300 DK, $5,400 FD – He was all over the left side of the pitch for West Ham last time out, but he ended up with just 3 fantasy points on DK and 7.75 on FD. Not nearly enough to make up for his price tag on either site. He is going to be on the road now which makes his job tougher, but he’s still expected to carry the same role which makes me think that he’s worth a look if you’re scrambling for a defender to select on either site. He’s not a cash play as the floor is zero.
Stoke vs Manchester United
| Stoke | Manchester United | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 522 | -159 | ||||||||||
| D D L L W W | W W W W W D | ||||||||||
| 7-6-8 | 11-7-3 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.62 | 3.71 | 14.29 | 8.52 | 18.48 | 21.29 | 16.67 | 5.76 | 9.67 | 5.14 | 24.71 | 15.62 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters | Shaqiri, Adam, Arnautovic | Shaqiri, Bojan, Adam, Arnautovic. | Ibrahimovic, Herrara, Martial, Rooney, Pogba, Mata | Rooney, Ibrahimovic, Pogba, Mkhitaryan | Blind, Rooney, Mkhitaryan, Mata, Herrera, Young | ||||||
Stoke are a team that has clawed its way back from the bottom of the table up to 9th place entering this weekend matchups. They have taken care of business in recent weeks, winning the matches they should win, including a 3-1 win over Sunderland on the road last weekend. They enter this match in what will be a very tough home matchup especially against an in-form Manchester United club that is firing. United have been adept at playing their game on the road in recent weeks. In fact, they are undefeated in all of Premier League play since October 23rd on the road at Stamford Bridge marking it a 12 game undefeated run (7 W, 5 D). Stoke actually managed a 1-1 draw with them back in Old Trafford in early October. This matchup should be an interesting one, and will likely be similar in game flow to the Stoke-Southampton matchup where S’oton held 71.7% of the possession and outshot Stoke 15-5 ending in a 0-0 draw. While I don’t believe that this match will end up with a 0-0 draw, I do think that Stoke will be parking the bus hoping for a misfiring United front line that can let them escape with 1 point or even 3 if they can score on a counter-attack.
Stoke Top Plays
Lee Grant, Goalkeeper, $3,800 DK, $6,700 FD – Why is Grant an interesting option? He’s facing a Manchester United team that by all accounts has been dominating the opposition in recent weeks having scored 12 goals in their last six weeks and are led by Paul Pogba, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan who all can attack and score multiple goals. Grant does have some upside here. Opponents of Manchester United this season have had to face 121 shots on target (third highest in the league), couple that with United’s low conversion rate (26% so far this season), and that leads to a situation where Grant is expected to see close to 4-7 saves. Even if he concedes 2-3 goals, he’s likely going to end up in the positive on DraftKings for a very cheap price tag of $3,800 and on FanDuel would get 15-21 points on saves alone while only losing 2-3 points on goals conceded making him a great play on there for just $6,700.
Bruno Martins-Indi, Defender, $3,100 DK, $5,800 FD – He’s a FanDuel only pick because of the expectation of him getting clearances, blocks, tackles and interceptions. Martins-Indi will score a goal every once in a while, but this isn’t why we roster him. On FanDuel he can get 20 fantasy points or more based just on his ability to stop the flow of play and play defense. He’ll be on the side of Henrikh Mkhitaryan along with Erik Pieters ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD) who is also in a good position, but moreso on DK because of his crossing ability, though that will be underplayed in this matchup. Another option on defense to consider is Ryan Shawcross ($5,900 FD) who would have the same floor/upside as Martins-Indi on FanDuel.
Stoke Secondary Plays
Marko Arnautovic, Forward, $6,100 DK, $7,600 FD – With two goals in his last time out, Arnautovic makes a compelling case for himself in fitting in some lineups here. Of course, the matchup is tougher as United are a better team than Sunderland. They have however allowed goals in the past few weeks but have not allowed a goal in their last two matchups away from home. Arnautovic is a strictly tournament option only as his ability to convert goals in this matchup is limited.
Manchester United Top Plays
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Forward, $8,800 DK, $12,600 FD – If its possible to fit him on FanDuel he’s a great option on there because of the high value of a shot on target over there. three shots on target on FanDuel are equivalent to a goal scored. So Zlatan could end the day with 4-6 shots on target and at least 1 goal if not more. He’s my must play on DraftKings where the price range is more conducive to rostering him along with the availability of the Utility spot.
Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Midfielder, $7,400 DK, $7,900 FD – His price on FanDuel is much lower than expected considering his potential in this matchup. He’s one of the main distributor for this team as the top corner kick taker. He’s also got several matches with chances created to his name. In a match with a Stoke team that gives up a large number of crosses, chances created and corners, Micky makes for a solid play this week.
Manchester United Secondary Plays
Antonio Valencia, Defender, $5,000 DK, $5,800 FD – He delivered an assist last time out in the draw with Liverpool in Old Trafford, so Valencia has proven to be an important part of this team. He’s going to look to continue his forward push in this matchup. He’s going to be tasked with marking Xherdan Shaqiri who is likely the most talented player on the Stoke team so Valencia will have his work cut out for him, but his combination of skill and speed will probably be enough to put the pressure on the opposite end on the Stoke defense.
West Bromwich Albion vs Sunderland
| West Bromwich Albion | Sunderland | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 483 | |||||||||||
| W L L W W L | L W L L D L | ||||||||||
| 8-5-8 | 4-3-14 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.81 | 3.05 | 13.90 | 8.33 | 19.48 | 22.52 | 10.00 | 2.86 | 18.62 | 10.90 | 15.86 | 24.33 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Rondon, Philips, Chadli | Phillips, Rondon | Brunt, McClean, Berahino | Borini, Defoe, Watmore | Khazri, Van Aanholt | Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt | ||||||
This matchup may end up being overlooked by a few people playing this slate. There are however some interesting matchups to consider. West Brom come into this one with an eye on retribution after a tough 4-0 loss last time out to Tottenham. They did have three wins over their last six including against Southampton, Hull and Swansea. The matchup with Sunderland wouldn’t be much different from the ones they’ve played against Hull and Swansea, with the Swansea and Hull ones being the closest analogy since both are at home similar to this one. Sunderland however come into this one with the hope to get a result since they are now back to their losing ways with 4 losses in their last six and are planted firmly in the relegation zone and will need to gather points from these middle of the table squads in order to get out of the danger zone. This match could feature a lot of possession from West Brom looking to get the win. West Brom are currently 8th in the table and want to keep getting points to continue a march forward towards potentially a European spot.
West Bromwich Albion Top Plays
Matt Phillips, Midfielder, $6,700 DK, $6,600 FD – Matt Phillips will be one of the mainstays in most teams this weekend given his opponent, and his ability to rack up fantasy points against non-top 6 teams. In fact, in his last 10 matches, he played Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United and averaged 4.25 fantasy points, meanwhile in his remaining six matches where he’s played “other” teams, he’s averaged 19.67 DraftKings fantasy points. Phillips’ fantasy point total has range from a low of 12 and a high of 25 in that range, and I expect more of the same this week.
West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays
Solomon Rondon, Forward, $6,900 DK, $8,500 FD – Rondon will likely start as the lone striker for West Brom in this coming matchup against Sunderland. Rondon is a hit or miss player, and he’s been more miss than hit recently which is why he is firmly in the tournament targets here. However, rest assured, he’s a significant part of this team and will likely have a game soon where he scores a goal or two and leads them to victory. The Sunderland defense is leaky, as they’ve allowed 40 goals this season in 21 matches, and Rondon can take advantage of that.
Sunderland Top Plays
Papy Djilobodji, Defender, $3,000 DK, $6,300 FD – Strictly a FanDuel option, Djilobodji should get the start here and will be tasked with tracking Rondon and any other forward/midfielder that finds his way into the box. Djilobodji should get close to double digits clearances in this matchup since Sunderland will be on the back foot for most of the match trying to keep West Brom from scoring some goals on them. Djilobodji and John O’Shea both carry the same fantasy output profile since they will both play the same role on this team as they look to combat the WBA offense.
Sunderland Secondary Plays
Jermain Defoe, Forward, $7,100 DK, $8,500 FD – Defoe has scored 60% of the goals for this Sunderland squad, so if they score a goal this week, Defoe will be expected to be right in the middle of it as he’ll be pushing forward. Defoe is an experienced player who knows how to take advantage of the defenses mistakes. This West Brom defense isn’t as strong as advertised since they’ve given up 28 goals this season and has only kept two clean sheets all season, with the last of those being against Burnley before Thanksgiving. Defoe is in a great spot to score a goal or at least threaten to do so.
Manchester City vs Tottenham
| Manchester City | Tottenham | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds | Vegas Odds | |||||||||
| 115 | 263 | ||||||||||
| W W W L W L | W W W W W W | ||||||||||
| 13-3-5 | 13-6-2 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.19 | 5.24 | 8.48 | 5.00 | 21.38 | 14.57 | 18.29 | 6.43 | 9.19 | 5.52 | 19.86 | 15.52 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Aguero, Toure, De Bruyne, Bony, Kolarov | Toure, Kolarov, De Bruyne, Silva | De Bruyne, Silva, Kolarov, Navas, Nasri, Sterling | Kane, Chadli | Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker | Eriksen, Lamela | ||||||
The match of the week is between these two heavy weights in what should be an exciting rematch of their week 7 matchup in which Tottenham came away with a 2-0 win at home courtesy of an own goal of Aleksandar Kolarov and another goal from Dele Alli. Alli is going through a hot streak at the moment where he’s scored 7 goals and an assist in 6 matches. Of course, he hasn’t scored in his last two, so maybe the effect of that is wearing off. Manchester City may not be the ideal team to stop that hot streak though as they’ve been a leaky faucet in recent weeks as they gave up 4 goals to Everton last time out and have given up 6 goals in their last 3. There will likely be some changes to the lineup this week as Pep will look to correct the mistakes that led to the Everton embarrassment. City have also recently finalized the signing of Brazilian phenom Gabriel Jesus who will probably start off the bench. This match will be a tough one to evaluate as it could go either way and could end up with neither team able to break through. Tottenham have been a very solid defense this season, meanwhile City are very weak at the back, so we could end up with a Tottenham side that dominates possession trying to force mistakes by the defense which will lead to the defensive mids and central defenders for City being targets.
Manchester City Top Plays
Nicolas Otamendi, Defender, $3,400 DK, $6,400 FD – It’s rare that my top plays from a City team are their central defenders. But thus is the state of this Manchester squad at the moment where they’ll need a solid performance from their defense in order to get a chance in this match. I’m not advocating that Otamendi will be a shut down defender in this case, but I am saying that he will have enough opportunities as Pep tries to absorb some Spurs attack and use Otamendi as a stop gap in the back to attune for the misgivings of Claudio Bravo who has so far disappointed in his debut season with the Citizens.
Manchester City Secondary Plays
Sergio Aguero, Forward, $9,100 DK, $12,300 FD – It’s easy to ignore a forward such as Aguero right now. He’s looked old, tired and disinterested in recent weeks. He’s failed to score in his last match but had a goal in his previous two matches and still remains one of the top strikers in the world. It’s that world class skill set and stature that makes him an ideal candidate to break down the Spurs defenses and force them into some tough defensive choices that could lead to mistakes. Aguero, along with the skilled midfield that supports him (Kevin De Bruyne, Sane, Silva, Sterling and Yaya Toure) make up a very potent attack that can stymie any defense, including one that has been consistently labeled as one of the best in Europe.
Tottenham Top Plays
Christian Eriksen, Midfielder, $9,100 DK, $9,300 FD – One of the few times that the prices on FD and DK will be so closely aligned, and for good reason. It’s hard to disagree on the impact that Eriksen has had in his recent set of matches, no matter the opponent. On DraftKings, he’s accumulated at least 10 points in every single one of his last 10 matchups and on FanDuel the number is very similar with 9 matches with at least 27.5 fantasy points including a 60 point outing against Hull and an 80 point outing against Swansea. Of course, City are not Hull or Swansea, but 25-40 fantasy points for the midfielder is not out of the question on FanDuel (and 10-25 on DK).
Tottenham Secondary Plays
Dele Alli, Midfielder, $7,800 DK, $8,400 FD – He’s not going to get a brace every week, but when he does he guarantees as least 20 fantasy point on DraftKings and 40 on FanDuel. Alli has had a solid run of 7 matches with at least 20 fantasy points on FanDuel. He’s had some other solid outings on DraftKings, but the floor is lower there because of the nature of the scoring, he did end up with just 9 fantasy points last weekend despite contributing an assist in the 4-0 win over West Brom. Alli may not score here against City, but he’s capable of scoring a goal at any moment and can contribute in other ways. His floor is lower on DK but he has a solid floor on FD that makes him a decent cash option if you choose to go that route in your lineup construction.