EPL Grind Down: Week 24

With the second set of matches this week, and with most teams running on fumes at this part of the season after some FA Cup, EFL Cup and Premier League draws in the last 10 days, this weekend will be an interesting one. Of course, if you read the Grind Down every week, you’ll notice I always call the matchups interesting, but that’s because I truly enjoy soccer and think every week is interesting. How can this league not be? You have the defending champs battling relegation. You have a top 5 race that seems to be heating up despite Chelsea owning a seemingly commanding lead (though we’ve seen even bigger leads get blown before, so nothing is over, and Chelsea are a flawed team). This week we also had the unique experience of watching one of the top contenders, Arsenal, lose at home to a team that hadn’t won a single match in at least a month. We also have the team with the worst road record (Burnley) sport a top THREE home record that propels them to a top 10 league position entering Gameweek 24.

There are plenty more storylines, and I’ll cover some of them as I go through this article. But one thing that I know you are all here to read are the top DFS plays for this slate. So what do we have on tap for the second half of the week? There are seven matchups on Saturday that are part of the main slate, these seven matchups include 2 even matchups, 4 home favorites, and 1 home underdog. Of course, looking at the lines will not tell you too much about where you should target your DFS plays, so we’ll need to go through them game by game and help break this down.

If you want more content, be sure to check out my marketplace package. I provide projections, rankings, a strategy article weekly (this week is focused on tournament strategy), and an exclusive video, the Daily Fantasy Hat-Trick where I give some specific top plays at each position. That’s not all though, we also have a chat room where I hang out an hour before lineups lock and try to answer all your questions as they come in and help you build your lineups right as the teams are announced Saturday mornings. So, come join us. Also, if you’ve got any other questions/suggestions, feel free to reach out on Twitter and I’ll be happy to engage you there as well.

On to the games.

Crystal Palace vs Sunderland

Crystal Palace Sunderland
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
-140 445
D L L L L W L L D L L D
5-4-14 4-4-15
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
11.83 3.70 14.00 8.48 23.43 21.70 9.65 2.78 18.22 10.65 15.78 24.83
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Benteke, Cabaye,  Wickham Puncheon, Cabaye, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley Defoe, Borini, Watmore Khazri, Defoe, van Aanholt Januzaj, Khazri, Gooch, van Aanholt, Borini

Palace come into this one as big favorites over a Sunderland team that hasn’t had a win since before Christmas. The first time these two met this season, it was a barnstormer with Palace winning 3-2 at the Stadium of Light. But don’t be fooled by the odds. These two teams are currently in relegation spots and Sunderland are all but destined to spend at least one season in the Championship. Moreover, Sunderland just sold one of their best wingers to Crystal Palace, as Patrick Van Aanholt looks to make his home debut for the London side this weekend. It’s pure coincidence that PVA is playing against his former team so soon, but that should factor into your consideration for the “revenge game” though, since Sunderland fans had made it clear that they didn’t want PVA on their team and he in return had wanted out. Another wrinkle to consider is the Crystal Palace manager, Sam Allardyce was Sunderland’s manager last season prior to leaving to take over managerial duties with the England National team. Now as manager of Crystal Palace, you can no doubt expect that big Sam will look for ways to defeat his former club and ensure his current club’s safety.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Wilfried Zaha, Midfielder, $7,300 DK, $6,500 FD – One of the key contributors on this team was missing for a month. And after a successful return last time out with Crystal Palace beating Bournemouth on the road, Zaha will look to continue his positive contributions on this team this weekend as the team takes on Sunderland. Zaha was close to scoring last time out and finished with 13 points on DK to make it 3 straight games with double digit outputs.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Patrick Van Aanholt, Defender, $4,700 DK, $5,900 FD – The revenge factor might come into play here. PVA does have strong offensive numbers and did show a presence offensively last time out by having the majority of his touches be in the opposing teams half. He’s expensive Saturday, but should be worth taking.

Christian Benteke, Forward, $6,700 DK, $8,300 FD – One of the top performers on this team, he scored a header last time out on an assist from Andros Townsend. He had 6 touches in the box last time and the Palace forward is very adept of taking advantage of defensive lapses to score goals or at least get chances. He’s cheap enough on DK and FD to be a secondary striker to target for your teams.

Sunderland Top Plays

Vito Mannone, Goalkeeper, $3,900 DK, $6,400 FD – There is little potential for Mannone in this matchup to reach more than 4 or 5 saves given how reserved in attack Crystal Palace appeared last match, and if they continue that not-so-aggressive mentality, then I don’t expect Mannone to get many saves leaving him with just an average outing, especially on the road.

Lamine Kone, Defender, $2,500 DK, $5,100 FD – He’s a FanDuel option only because of his role as a central defender. If you played the midweek slate you’ll notice that Kone ended up with 24 fantasy points on FanDuel as a result of 16 clearances. It was the second time in 4 matches that Kone reached double digits in clearances. The expectation that with a team like Crystal Palace that likes to cross the ball and play it in the air, that the defenders will get plenty of clearance opportunities, in fact, in their last three matches, the center defenders of the opponent totaled double digit clearances in each matchup, setting up this game nicely for Kone.

Everton vs Bournemouth

Everton Bournemouth
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
-137 416
W D W W W D L W D L D L
10-7-6 7-5-11
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
13.00 4.78 11.70 6.74 21.22 20.78 11.70 4.13 13.83 8.26 18.35 20.04
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Baines, Lukaku, Barkley, Mirallas Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Oviedo, Lukaku, Deulofeu, Valencia Mirallas, Baines,  Barkley, Deulofeu, Cleverley Wilson, Stanislas, Daniels Arter, Stanislas Stanislas, Daniels, Arter, Pugh

These two teams are headed in opposite directions, Everton are considered the favorites in this one as they come in after a solid run that has seen them defeat Southampton, Manchester City and Crystal Palace in their last five matches. Bournemouth come into this one with mixed results in recent contests having drawn with Arsenal 3-3 (after giving up a big 3-0 lead), then losing to Crystal Palace, Hull and Millwall (FA Cup). Their only win in their last six matches is a 3-0 win against then-hapless Swansea. For this matchup the expectation is the Everton will control the flow of the match and will push the game into Bournemouth’s side thus pressuring the Cherries into committing defensive mistakes. The Everton squad has been good in recent weeks, and it is no coincidence that it coincided with the addition of Tom Davies to the lineup, who has now started 4 straight matches for Everton. For Bournemouth, they are down to the 14th spot in the table and have weak record on the road with just 2 wins and 2 draws all season, and losing this matchup will shift them closer to the relegation battle than they would like to be.

Everton Top Plays

Tom Davies, Midfielder, $3,700 DK, $5,700 FD – One of the main reasons that this team has done well (as mentioned earlier), and he’s priced dirt cheap on DraftKings. In a matchup with Bournemouth that should favor Everton, Davies is an obvious pick for his cheap price tag.

Kevin Mirallas, Midfielder, $6,500 DK, $5,900 FD – Mirallas has been one of the main play makers on this team for weeks now and without Bolasie for the season Mirallas has taken on a bigger role on this team. The team still enjoys going out wide for their attack. This role has been taken on by Mirallas who has at least 5 crosses in 2 straight matches now. He’s cheap for his contribution and should be on most teams.

Everton Secondary Plays

Romelu Lukaku, Forward, $8,000 DK, $10,600 FD – One of the highest priced forwards on the slate and for good reason. Lukaku should be in a good position to score this week and the goal scoring odds love him to score. You can differentiate a little by going to Lookman who’s very cheap at just $4,600 on DK and $6,300 on FD, but Lukaku is worth targeting regardless of that price.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Harry Arter, Midfielder, $4,000 DK, $5,700 FD – He’s a FanDuel only option given his position on the pitch as a defensive midfielder. In their last few matches Everton have forced the holding midfielders into playing defense and committing to challenging the attackers. This has resulted in a flurry of tackles, interceptions, clearances and blocks. All stats that support a FanDuel selection, but not a strong DraftKings resume.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Josh King, Forward, $5,400 DK, $7,000 FD – While Everton have been enjoying a decent run as of late, they haven’t exactly been solid at the back for stretches in the season. King is expected to start at the forward spot and with Callum Wilson being out for a long time, King and Afobe will be jumping in to take over the forward duties.

Hull vs Liverpool

Hull Liverpool
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
658 -206
L D L W L D W W D D L D
4-5-14 13-7-3
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
10.35 3.30 18.00 10.04 18.52 24.39 16.87 6.09 7.83 4.17 20.91 13.83
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hernandez Maguire, Huddlestone Huddlestone, Evandro Milner, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno Henderson, Milner, Coutinho, Sturridge Milner, Henderson,Coutinho, Firmino

Hull comes into this matchup with a new set of players to showcase as they look to host Liverpool in a home matchup at the KCOM stadium. Their new players include Andrea Ranocchia, Alfred N’Diaye, and Kamil Grosicki. They will likely end up starting Grosicki in this one, and he might end up being a player to target in this matchup (more on him in a minute). Their visitors, Liverpool are coming into this one with a tough string of performances indicating that they are suffering from lack of form in recent weeks. To put it bluntly, they’ve found themselves exiting from both the FA cup and the EFL cup and are without a win in the last four EPL matches including a loss to Swansea. Their 1-1 draw last week with Chelsea was a step forward as they managed to claw back a point from the league leaders. But it was still an underwhelming performance by Liverpool, their manager Jurgen Klopp will be looking to right the ship and try to solve the problems that are ailing them. I do believe that Liverpool will come out in this matchup attacking the Hull defense hard and will make an effort to get back in the win column after a long absence.

Hull Top Plays

Eldin Jakupovic, Goalkeeper, $3,700 DK, $6,400 FD – Playing at home as a keeper as an underdog is a recipe for the biggest return for a keeper. In the midweek Vito Mannone was the guy who was in that position and Sunderland managed to keep a clean sheet. Jakupovic also kept a clean sheet against Manchester United, and this match is another tough one for them. I’ll look for Jakupovic to at least put in a good performance against the Reds.

Another alternative for Hull is to go with the defensive route and target both central defenders for your FanDuel lineups. Given the uncertainty as to who would be starting for Hull in that position, it will be difficult to recommend a specific player, so I’ll have to go with the position instead. Hull will likely be starting two of the three of Michael Dawson ($6,500), Harry Maguire ($6,400) and/or Andrea Ranocchia ($5,900)

Hull Secondary Plays

Kamil Grosicki, Midfielder, $5,400 DK, $5,100 FD – He’s going to be one of our staple midfielders real soon given his style of play that puts him out on the wings and gives him the ability to deliver crosses and initiate attacks from either side of the pitch. He’s likely also going to keep rising in price, so this could be a good week to start taking chances on him. He’s a GPP play only because of his relative unknown-ishness in the English league.

Liverpool Top Plays

Roberto Firmino, Forward, $8,300 DK, $11,800 FD – Lots of people will be on Liverpool this weekend and for good reason. Firmino will be getting action and chances to attack in the forward and take lots of shots. There is no reason to fear him.

Sadio Mane, Midfielder, $8,500 DK, $9,100 FD – If you load up on Liverpool, then Sane makes sense on FanDuel since he’s almost 3K cheaper than Firmino and is cheaper than Coutinho on both sites, but carries the same upside.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

*Philippe Coutinho, Midfielder, $8,800 DK, $10,000 – Coutinho is a top talent, and while he’s come back from injury recently, he hasn’t performed at a high level which puts him as a bit of an unknown. Part of the reason that Liverpool has been struggling is that they’re missing his high level of performances. Will he return to that elite level this week? He has a chance to.

Southampton vs West Ham

Southampton West Ham
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
-120 386
L L L L W L W L L W W L
7-6-10 8-4-11
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
14.87 4.57 10.48 6.30 26.96 17.52 13.57 3.30 13.43 8.96 19.00 20.91
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Austin, Tadic, Bertrand, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse, Davis Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Van Dijk Ward-Prowse, Tadic,  Davis, Bertrand Noble, Carroll, Lanzini Noble, Cresswell, Snodgrass Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell, Snodgrass

Southampton come into this one as big favorites for this matchup as they take on the Hammers which is surprising since Southampton have had a rough set of matches where they lost five out of six matches in recent weeks. In that span they only scored six goals and conceded 12 goals. Of course, they are now facing a West Ham team that has finally gotten rid of their Dimitri Payet problem after he finally got his wish and left the club for his former team in Marseille. In his place, West Ham managed to recover by adding Robert Snodgrass from Hull. The whole team should feel better after the departure of Payet, so we’ll see how this plays out as these two teams that are headed in different directions meet up on the south coast this weekend.

Southampton Top Plays

Soufiane Boufal, Midfielder, $5,100 DK, $5,800 FD – He came off the bench last time out for Southampton and played very well and was very effective despite the team’s loss to Swansea last time out. He might earn a recall here again, but he’s strictly a GPP option.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Dusan Tadic, Midfielder, $6,600 DK, $6,500 FD – He had a regrettable game, and one of him or Redmond should end up on the bench this week if Boufal starts. My gut says that Puel will start Tadic in this one. I think that with some of their injuries in the back, then Bertrand will have to sit back and play defense more, which means the wing players will be more involved giving Tadic more opportunities. With West Ham having a weaker defense than average, Tadic has a good chance to deliver.

West Ham Top Plays

Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $7,900 DK, $7,000 FD – Snodgrass is a Payet starter kit and he’s going to come in and build on that as West Ham look to try to fit Snodgrass into the team seamlessly. He’s likely take corners, free kicks and crosses for this team. He should be well on his way to continuing averaging double digit fantasy points with his new team.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Sam Byram, Defender, $3,700 DK, $5,200 FD – He’s a value option on DK that should get the start at the full back position in 4-2-3-1 formation meaning he’ll be relied upon to push forward. He’ll also play on the same side as Snodgrass so they can team up and pressure Southampton here. He’s a secondary option because he may not get the start, but latest news trends towards him starting.

Watford vs Burnley

Watford Burnley
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
114 304
D L L D D W W W L W L W
7-6-10 9-2-12
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
10.65 3.70 13.91 8.26 18.48 23.74 10.22 3.13 18.87 10.22 17.83 24.48
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney, Ighalo  Holebas Watson, Capoue, Holebas Gray, Barnes, Vokes Kightly, Boyd, Barnes, Barton Boyd, Kightly, Barton

Watford come into this matchup after springing the upset of the season after beating Arsenal 2-1 on the road and are now in 13th place. They should have Jose Holebas back from suspension and Kabasele will be recovered from his injury. The team will play in a more balanced fashion against Burnley since these two teams will be more evenly matched. Burnley are also coming off a signature win of their own as they defeated the defending champs to push them closer to the relegation. Burnley however are a much worse team away from hom with just 1 point from 29 away from Turf Moore. I doubt that things will be changing this time around, making Watford likely to get their second win in a row after a long stretch without wins.

Watford Top Plays

Tom Cleverley, Midfielder, $4,300 DK, $5,200 FD – Another value midfielder to consider this week is Cleverley who is thriving with his new team after transferring over from Everton. Clevereley has 4 chances created in his last two matches as he’s also provided two assists in these matches. He’s cheap enough and a great play for his price.

Watford Secondary Plays

Troy Deeney, Forward, $5,200 DK, $7,500 FD – After going through a long stretch awaiting his 100th goal with the club, Deeney now has two goals in his last two matches including the ultimate game winner against Arsenal last time out. He’s poised to add to that total this week for a cheap price.

Burnley Top Plays

Robbie Brady, Midfielder, $4,600 DK, $5,800 FD – If you played DFS soccer last season you’ll remember Brady from Norwich fame. Brady is a great crosser of the ball and takes free kicks. Before long he’ll settle into the role with this Burnley team and will start to resemble the fantasy goldmine that he was last season, and repeat his performances from the Championship where he averaged close to 4 crosses a game and took corners for the team.

West Bromwich Albion vs Stoke

West Bromwich Albion Stoke
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
253
L W W L W D L L W W D D
9-6-8 7-8-8
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
10.22 3.22 13.57 8.13 19.91 22.48 11.48 3.70 14.83 8.74 18.13 21.70
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Chadli, Berahino, Morrison, Gardner Gardner, Brunt, Rondon, Morrison Phillips, Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Morrison, Berahino Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Ireland Allen, Bojan, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, I Arnautovic.

Two teams that treated us to boring 1-1 draws in the midweek get to meet up this week in an attempt to frustrate us even further. West Brom are actually a very solid team at home as they will look to win their sixth match in seven attempts. Stoke on the other hand are missing Xherdan Shaqiri in this one and will be trying to extend their unbeaten run to five straight matches as they visit The Hawthornes. The team is missing some important defensive pieces. This game is screaming to be a low scoring 2-1 or 1-1 affair. There won’t be a lot of fantasy options we like this week.

West Bromwich Albion Top Plays

None

West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays

Chris Brunt, Midfielder, $5,400 DK, $6,400 FD – He’s on a good run now with 26+ fantasy points on FD in 3 of his last 4 matches, and 15+ in the same span on DK. He’s not doing it on goals alone either. He has 2 goals in that span, but he’s also had double digits crosses in 2 of the last 4 matches. He also has chances created in that span and some interceptions, clearances, and tackles proving he can do it on both ends.

Stoke Top Plays

None

Stoke Secondary Plays

Peter Crouch, Forward, $5,000 DK, $7,600 FD – His price has risen on FD, but he’s still 5K on DK and he has 3 goals in his last four to revive some long ago performances. Crouch is a secondary option because he can return virtually nothing if he doesn’t score. But if he does score he’ll be worth rostering.

Tottenham vs Middlesbrough

Tottenham Middlesbrough
Article Image Vegas Odds Article Image Vegas Odds
-333 1135
W W W W D D L L D D L D
13-8-2 4-9-10
Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm Sh/Gm SoT/Game Shots A/Gm Shots A in box /Gm Cross/Gm Cross A/Gm
17.57 6.09 9.26 5.78 20.17 15.52 9.09 2.35 14.04 8.65 19.91 21.74
Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks Penalties Direct Free Kicks Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Kane, Janssen, Lamela Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker Eriksen, Lamela, Son Leadbitter Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter

Tottenham failed to beat Sunderland on the road last time out, much to all our disappointment, but now that they’re back at home and facing Middlesbrough, there will be expectations that they finish the job. Middlesbrough are a tough defense to face, but so is Tottenham so this has the makings of a low scoring affair. However, Tottenham are a top 4 team and have the skills and talents to match. Middlesbrough may end up being overwhelmed in this one and would probably lose 2-0 or 3-0. Tottenham will control most of the possession and Middlesbrough will likely concede most of it and rely on defensive performances in order to steal a point or 3 on the road.

Tottenham Top Plays

Christian Eriksen, Midfielder, $9,900 DK, $10,400 FD – Eriksen had 23 FanDuel fantasy points despite not scoring or assisting on a goal, but he did have 3 chances created, 55 passes, and a tackle along with 2 shots on target. This shows the high floor that Eriksen holds when Tottenham are facing a weaker opponent as they are this week.

Ben Davies, Defender, $4,500 DK, $5,100 FD – Davies is getting a spot start after the injury to Rose last match. Davies will likely take some of that offensive role that Rose has which would be close to double figures. HE managed 8 points off the bench last time out in just 50 minutes. That should translate to 11 points this week.

Tottenham Secondary Plays

Harry Kane, Forward, $9,400 DK, $12,300 FD – Kane had 53 points last time they played at home and he scored a hat-trick as Tottenham beat West Brom. He also had 11 shots and 7 of those were on target. I’m not assuming he’ll repeat that feat, but not mentioning him this week will be a mistake as I think he can deliver, but his price is so steep that I wouldn’t begrudge anybody fading him. I wouldn’t though.

Middlesbrough Top Plays

None

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

Bernardo, Defender $5,600 FD – He’s a FanDuel only option because of his defensive numbers he should put up against a stout offense from Tottenham. Spurs opponents generally get plenty of clearances, interceptions, tackles and blocks.

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.