EPL Grind Down: Week 25

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-02-21 13:30:56

Welcome to Gameweek 25. This week we have six matches in the main Saturday slate for EPL with both DraftKings and FanDuel offering up some big contests to whet our appetite for the upcoming Champions League contests next week. Of course, with the transfer deadline already come and gone, teams are now set until the summer giving a bit of order back to us as we look forward to the final third of the season (14 matches left).

This week’s matchups carry a bit of intrigue, we have one team that is a heavy favorite, then five matchups that appear very even with some slightly favoring the home team, and others slightly favoring the road team. This will end up giving us a bevy of possibilities for our lineups. And for more information, including projections, rankings, the Daily Fantasy Hat-Trick and some strategy articles on how to build lineups, be sure to check out the marketplace where I provide more in depth content to satisfy your research desires. I’ll also be there Saturday morning in the chat room answering questions and helping you build your lineups when the lineups come out.

West Ham vs West Bromwich Albion

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Ham						West Bromwich Albion
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				123
				L L W W L W						W W L W D W
				9-4-11						10-6-8
13.00	3.17	12.88	8.58	18.21	20.04	9.79	3.08	13.00	7.79	19.08	21.54
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Noble, Carroll, Lanzini		Noble, Cresswell, Snodgrass		Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell, Snodgrass		Chadli, Berahino, Morrison, Gardner		Gardner, Brunt, Rondon, Morrison		Phillips, Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Morrison, Berahino

West Ham and West Brom enter this matchup in what appears to be an even game between two teams that are currently in the middle of the table. West Ham finally got done with their Payet problem last week and are entering this week with a couple of games with their new addition Robert Snodgrass who is turning out to be a great addition to the squad. West Ham came away winners last time out against Southampton thanks to an excellent performance by Pedro Obiang who had a goal and assist last time out paying off for two straight games where the midfielder was one of the best players on the field. On the other side of the ball, West Brom come into this one as winners of 4 of their last 6 and are in 8th place in the standings and knocking on the door of the upper echelon of the clubs in the premier league. Their last match saw them win a tight affair with Stoke at home after giving up plenty of possession but stealing a goal courtesy of James Morrison early in the first half. This match will likely end up being dominated by West Ham possession wise with West Brom looking to push back on the London club, but ultimately with West Ham prevailing as the victor here.

West Ham Top Plays

Robert Snodgrass, $6,700 FD, $7,900 DK – When he arrived in the premier league Snodgrass became one of the top midfielders in daily fantasy as he was the best player on a Hull team that was very weak in most positions. Snodgrass continues that role with his new team as he takes over the vacancy left by Payet’s departure making him one of the top plays on most slates. And against a squad like WBA, Snodgrass will be worth considering here as he’ll take crosses, shots and create opportunities for his teammates to win this game.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Michail Antonio, $7,400 FD, $7,200 DK – Antonio had his biggest success with Dimitri Payet operating on the wings and being given the freedom to roam around and put pressure on defenses with aerial attacks. Antonio has scored most of his goals this season via header, and now with a new delivery system, he should be getting that same supply to score more goals via headers if given the chance.

West Bromwich Albion Top Plays

Chris Brunt, $6,100 FD, $5,500 DK – Brunt has been starting as a full-back with this team, FanDuel has moved him to the defender spot, meanwhile DraftKings has kept him at the midfield position. Brunt has been a vital part of this West Brom’s attack that has scored 9 goals in their last 6 matches with Brunt scoring two of those goals. His bigger contribution has been in crosses though where he’s had 9 and 10 in his last two matches. He also has five chances created in his last four matches giving him some upside there as well.

West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays

James Morrison, $5,700 FD, $4,300 DK – Morrison has been more of a tournament option in recent weeks. He’s scored three goals in his last five matches and each of them came off his single shot on target. He’s been playing in an advanced midfield role putting him in a great position to attack t

Manchester United vs Watford

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Manchester United						Watford
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-370						1204
				W W D D D W						L L D D W W
				12-9-3						8-6-10
16.29	5.63	8.96	4.75	24.79	14.50	10.21	3.54	13.33	7.92	17.71	22.75
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Ibrahimovic, Rooney, Pogba		Rooney, Ibrahimovic, Depay, Mata, Young		Rooney, Blind, Depay, Mata, Herrera, Young		Deeney, Ighalo		Holebas		Watson, Capoue, Holebas

Manchester United are coming into this matchup as heavy favorites with the bookies in near unanimous agreement that United should walk away with the three points unscathed from the visiting Watford. However, they need to be wary of this team as they are coming off a four game undefeated streak including two wins in a row with one of them coming on the road at Arsenal. So this team have proven that they aren’t afraid to take on the best clubs in England and attempt to put one on them. What Watford did so spectacularly against the Gunners was execute almost flawlessly on the counter attack and take advantage of the holes in the back. Moreover, they played solid organized defense and held their line while withstanding a barrage of attacks. This United team does have a penchant to give up goals in a close matchup which could end up playing right into the hands of this Watford squad. Nevertheless, United are a force to be reckoned with. They are coming off an incredible undefeated run that spans from October 29th till now that covers 15 weeks in the Premier League. With this matchup being at home, where United are undefeated for 10 matches.

Manchester United Top Plays

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, $12,000 FD, $9,700 DK – It’s hard to talk about Zlatan, he’s one of the best forwards in the world. He’s expensive, but he’s getting shots, touches and goals. Questions? He’s even got a nice matchup to boot

Paul Pogba, $10,100 FD, $7,600 DK – Pogba is one of my favorite midfielders on this slate with his ability to control the midfield like no other player in this game. He’s going to get chances created, passes, clearances, blocks, tackles and interceptions. He’s also going to take shots, crosses, and will eventually get back on the scoring sheet after failing to score a goal in six straight matches.

Manchester United Secondary Plays

Henrikh Mkhitaryan, $8,400 FD, $7,800 DK – Micky is cheaper than Pogba on FD, and slightly expensive on DK, but he’s in a great spot to deliver some good results in this matchup. With this matchup being at home, United should hold possession giving the entire united team a chance to get shots and potentially goals.

Watford Top Plays

N/A

Watford Secondary Plays

Younes Kaboul, $5,900 FD, $2,800 DK – He’s a FanDuel only play with his ability to get tackles, blocks, clearances and interceptions. He scored a goal last time out, but don’t expect that to happen again, he’s a solid return type player with some upside if Watford continue to not hold much possession in this one.

Middlesbrough vs Everton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Middlesbrough						Everton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				283						118
				L D D L D L						D W W W D W
				4-9-11						11-7-6
8.71	2.25	13.46	8.29	19.08	20.83	12.46	4.58	11.21	6.46	20.33	19.92
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Leadbitter		Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter		Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter		Baines, Lukaku, Barkley, Mirallas		Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Oviedo, Lukaku, Deulofeu, Valencia		Mirallas, Baines, Barkley, Deulofeu, Cleverley

When Middlesbrough play host to Everton, they’ll be looking to break out of a slump that has seen them fail to win a game since Christmas and in that span have only scored three goals in a span of 7 matches. The good news is that they’ve scored their goals mostly at home (11 of their 19 goals at home) and they’re facing an Everton team that has conceded 17 goals away from home. Though, this Everton squad has been playing well in recent weeks with seven straight games in the league without a loss, including three matches where they’e scored 3 or more goals. Last match they scored 6 goals in a 6-3 win against Bournemouth. The matchup this week will be tougher than in the past given how good Middlesbrough tend to play at home and how organized they are defensively. In their first encounter this season, Everton emerged victorious at Goodison with a 3-1 score line. I predict this matchup will be tighter, but Everton will still emerge as winners.

Middlesbrough Top Plays

Calum Chambers, $6,100 FD, $3,300 DK – Chambers is an interesting play that probably is worth only targeting on FanDuel given the defensive stats you can accumulate there. He might get some tackles and interceptions, but he’s likely to get more clearances in this matchup making him fit squarely in the FanDuel corner. I don’t think that Middlesbrough will have an easy time building up their attack which makes none of their forward players a sure thing.

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

Adama Traore, $6,400 FD, $5,000 DK – There is one forward player I like, and that is Traore who has shown some incredible skill. He’s going to have some chances in this one. If he doesn’t get the start, then I think the wingers for this Middlesbrough team will get some good run in a match at home against an Everton team that has been prone to conceding goals.

Everton Top Plays

Ross Barkley, $8,400 FD, $6,800 DK – Barkley might be in one of his best forms in his career as he is coming off a match where he played a major part of Everton’s massive victory last week. He finish the game with 28 fantasy points marking it seven straight matches where he’s reached double digit points on DK and he has done it across the stat sheet and is not limited to just goals and assists.

Romelu Lukaku, $11,800 FD, $8,700 DK – Lukaku had one of the best games in his career last time out as he scored FOUR goals for a total of 52 DK points, and 89.75 points on FD. He’s on the road in this one, and he’s essentially very goal dependent making him a risky pick if he fails to score. But I think he gets at least a goal if not more in this matchup.

Everton Secondary Plays

Seamus Coleman, $6,400 FD, $5,500 DK – Coleman has been playing an advanced role and is one of the defenders I like for this slate that I think will be under owned on both sites.

Stoke vs Crystal Palace

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Stoke						Crystal Palace
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				105						312
				L W W D D L						L L L L W L
				7-8-9						5-4-15
11.00	3.54	14.21	8.38	17.38	20.79	11.33	3.54	13.42	8.13	22.46	20.79
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Ireland		Allen, Bojan, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, I Arnautovic.		Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham		Puncheon, Cabaye,		Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley

Crystal Palace were extremely disappointing as they hosted Sunderland last time out and were 4-0 losers to the only team they were ahead of in the standings. This week they go against a Stoke team that was in their position earlier this season. But as things stand now it looks like Palace will need to truly turn things around to avoid a drop. Meanwhile, Stoke have had a decent run of form overturned with three matches in a row without a win. This game at home gives them the chance to fix things up a bit and get that W that they need in order to keep their march into the top half of the table. Stoke is still potentially missing Shaqiri due to a calf injury and Glen Johnson. Meanwhile Ramadan Sobhi will be back and could get a start if Mark Hughes chooses to go that route. The sure things in this lineup however would be Charlie Adam, Marko Arnautovic, Peter Crouch and the full backs. Meanwhile on Palace, there are some plays to take advantage of in this matchup.

Stoke Top Plays

Erik Pieters, $6,100 FD, $4,500 DK – Pieters is one of the major cogs on this team as he’s likely to get the start and to push forward as Stoke look to beat Palace in this matchup. Pieters is expensive but he’s consistent in his performances. On FD he has an average of 17 fantasy points, and he can range anywhere from 15 fantasy points to 30 on there. He’ll likely reach 20+ fantasy points on tackles, chances created and tackles. He might even add a shot in there or two.

Charlie Adam, $6,200 FD, $4,900 DK – Charlie Adam takes over crosses and corners without Shaqiri in the lineup making him one of the more acceptable cash plays. He’s priced relatively cheap for a player who will likely be a major part of this team in this matchup. I expect his ownership to be relatively high. Also worth noting that Crystal Palace give up close to 21 crosses a game giving Adam more opportunities.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Marko Arnautovic, $8,100 FD, $6,100 DK – Arnautovic is goal dependent and when he’s involved in the attack he’s one of the better attacking wing players in the game. However, that seems to ebb and flow based on his mood which makes him a tournament option. Crystal Palace have been very poor defensively which means that Arnautovic might be motivated to jump in and try to score some goals.

Peter Crouch, $7,500 FD, $5,000 DK – Another player to look to for goals is Crouch who is cheap enough to be considered a staple in most lineups. For just $5K on DK Crouch makes for an excellent play. What’s more is he has 4 goals in his last six matches.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Wilfried Zaha, $6,800 FD, $7,300 DK – Despite their bad form and run in recent weeks, Zaha is still a very serviceable player with plenty of chances to get the job done. He’s cheaper than other options with the same upside. His floor is pretty respectable at 10 on DK and 20 on FD

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Christian Benteke, $8,100 FD, $6,600 DK – Benteke is the upside play on this team. If you think that Palace can score a goal or two, Benteke is your best bet to target those goals. He failed to make an impact last time against Sunderland, and we have to wonder if he’ll do more this time. He’s worth a target.

Sunderland vs Southampton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Sunderland						Southampton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				297						106
				L D L L D W						L L L W L L
				5-4-15						7-6-11
9.25	2.67	17.46	10.21	15.13	23.79	14.25	4.38	10.04	6.04	25.83	16.79
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Defoe, Borini, Watmore		Khazri, Defoe, van Aanholt		Januzaj, Khazri, Gooch, van Aanholt, Borini		Austin, Tadic, Bertrand, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Van Dijk		Ward-Prowse, Tadic, Davis, Bertrand

The 4-0 win over Palace last time out was a big surprise for all observers. Sunderland were not expected to run through this Palace squad that easily. The win itself wasn’t a surprise, but the performance itself was a big aberration from their normal weeks. Especially when you consider that Sunderland haven’t won a game since a mid December win against Watford. This week they go against this Southampton squad that has lost six of their last seven matches in the EPL. These performances have been a problem for this Southampton team. The first time these two teams met, it ended up with a 1-1 draw and with this matchup being held in the Stadium of Light, Sunderland have a chance to get their second win in a row for only the second time this season.

Sunderland Top Plays

Jermain Defoe, $8,500 FD, $6,500 DK – A brace last time against Palace puts Defoe back in our sights. Of course, I never get Defoe right, so since I put him as a main player to target in here, then he’s probably going to be blanked. But I think he’ll score a goal or two against this Saints team.

Vito Mannone, $6,800 FD, $4,300 DK – Mannone is at home and is a big underdog making him one of the top goalkeepers to target. The lack of other reliable options make Mannone the only real option at goalie in my mind, unless you want to pay up for a low upside/high chance of clean sheet keeper like David De Gea for Man United

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Bryan Oviedo, $5,200 FD, $4,100 DK – The relatively new addition to this team got the start last time out and had a great game where he recorded 10 tackles, 6 clearances, 2 interceptions and a chance created. I don’t expect similar results, but numbers close to that are attainable especially on a team like Sunderland that will be on their back heel more often than not

Southampton Top Plays

Manolo Gabbiadini, $8,200 FD, $6,700 DK – In his first start for Southampton he scored a goal and showed some life with an attacking mentality. He also took some good runs and will be eager to deliver again in this matchup against a weak Sunderland team. This match being on the road puts a bit of a damper on my expectations, but I believe that Gabbiadini will find some success with team in the long run.

Southampton Secondary Plays

James Ward-Prowse, $6,500 FD, $5,800 DK – Ward-Prowse is a corner kick taker and potentially penalty kick taker. He’s usually very cheap and this week is no exception for his ability. Southampton should have control of this matchup and Ward-Prowse will get his opportunities to feed the forwards as part of a 4-3-3 formation and a dynamic midfield that should succeed in breaking down the Sunderland defense.

Liverpool vs Tottenham

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Liverpool						Tottenham
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				130						244
				W D D L D L						W W W D D W
				13-7-4						14-8-2
16.17	5.83	7.50	4.00	20.04	13.25	16.83	5.83	8.88	5.54	19.33	14.88
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Milner, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno		Henderson, Milner, Coutinho, Sturridge		Milner, Henderson,Coutinho, Firmino		Kane, Janssen, Lamela		Eriksen, Lamela, Kane, Walker		Eriksen, Lamela, Son

The final match of this week is between these two top teams with Liverpool coming back to the safety of their home field in Anfield, and accepting the visiting Tottenham. Liverpool are going through a very rough patch, and arguably the roughest patch since the arrival of their new manager Jurgen Klopp last season. They are now winless in 5 matches in all competitions, and if you exclude the FA cup win against Plymouth back in January, they have now failed to win a single match since the turn of the calendar to 2017. Of course, they’ve also had one of the toughest schedules, nevertheless, with losses to Swansea, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and needing a replay to beat Plymouth. Liverpool are in a tough position heading into this one since their bad results were a result of bad performances. On the other side of the ball, Tottenham have looked much stronger especially with a run of good results that included a 2-0 win against Chelsea, a draw 2-2 with Manchester City on the road. The only concern for Tottenham has been their road performances where they have failed to get some decisive wins and score goals in positions that should have seen them score a bevy of them. For this matchup, I think Liverpool surprise us and start showing the championship-contender side they’ve been in past seasons and put a show on beating Tottenham 3-1.

Liverpool Top Plays

Roberto Firmino, $10,800 FD, $7,700 DK – If Liverpool will bring it back and score some goals then Firmino will be the top option on this team. You could also look at Mane as another play to take advantage of. Firmino should still get 2-3 shots and as long as he starts in front of goal, then he’s a viable option at forward for a hefty salary.

James Milner, $8,000 FD, $7,800 DK – Milner takes corners and penalty kicks. He’s also listed as a defender making him the most expensive defender, and also the one with the highest ceiling because of his goal scoring ability.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

Philippe Coutinho, $9,400 FD, $8,400 DK – Coutinho has had a rough set of matches, but last week he recorded 13 DK points but just 11.5 FD points. He’s very expensive for his production. My bold call this week is he scores a goal or two for this team this week, but he’s got the potential to score nothing and end up with single digit fantasy production. But being at home, and with this game being an important one for the Reds, I can see Coutinho reverting back to his effective self and guiding his team to a much needed win.

Tottenham Top Plays

Harry Kane, $11,800 FD, $8,900 DK – Kane is still one of the most dangerous forwards out there, and Liverpool have been weak defensively. If you disagree with my premise that Liverpool will win this one handily, then you should buy Kane stock as he’s the most likely goal scorer on this team. For a GPP option, take a shot at Dele Alli.

Tottenham Secondary Plays

Christian Eriksen, $9,900 FD, $9,500 DK – Eriksen is in play regardless of whether you think Liverpool win or lose. He’s going to be a big part of the midfield and will probably touch the ball each and every time down the field to try to score or deliver a cross/pass to the forwards to score a goal and leave Anfield with a win to keep the pressure on the league leaders, Chelsea.