EPL Grind Down: Week 26
Welcome to the latest edition of the EPL Grind Down for Matchday 26. This week we feature six matches with just one team being a heavy favorite. There are some interesting games to watch Saturday morning. One thing that is starting to take place is we’re seeing more teams settle on new rotations/lineups after the January transfer window. So you likely won’t see too many surprise starts/sits. Though, that is obviously still an option. Of course, all the information located here in the Grind Down is a guide only, and our job here is to get the most information possible, but it will ultimately be your job to build your teams. If you end up with some more questions, I’ll be in the marketplace chat room answering questions an hour before lock and helping members build lineups and answering questions and helping find the best value plays as lineups come out.
Otherwise, I welcome all questions, comments and suggestions either here in the comment section, or on Twitter.
Chelsea vs Swansea
| Chelsea | Swansea | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -375 | 1191 | ||||||||||
| L W W D W D | W L W W L W | ||||||||||
| 19-3-3 | 7-3-15 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.24 | 5.00 | 8.16 | 4.52 | 18.68 | 17.44 | 11.00 | 4.00 | 13.88 | 8.96 | 21.56 | 19.04 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Hazard, Fabregas, Costa | Alonso, Luiz, Willian, Fabregas, Matic | Willian, Fabregas, Pedro, Hazard | Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson, Routledge | ||||||
Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge where they are 11-0-1 this season (including nine in a row) with 33 goals scored and seven goals conceded. Their opponent, Swansea have been playing much better since firing American Bob Bradley back in December. They have translated some performance into some positive results including a 3-2 win over Liverpool in Anfield, a 2-1 win over Southampton and most recently, a 2-0 win against reeling defending champions Leicester. This positive string of results has propelled Swansea from sure-to-be-relegated, to likely survivors into next season as they have moved up to 15th place and are 4 points out of the relegation spot. This matchup will be a tough one as Chelsea are a much better team and they have played superb ball at home, propelled by the brilliance of Hazard, the goal scoring of Diego Costa (15 goals so far this season) and the managerial excellence of Antonio Conte. Chelsea hold a commanding 8 point lead atop the Premier League and will likely add three more in this matchup. The oddsmakers like Chelsea to win this one handily and they don’t give Swansea much opportunity to come away with a win here.
Chelsea Top Plays
Marcos Alonso, $7,900 FD, $6,600 DK – Between Moses, Alonso, Pedro, Willian and Hazard, Chelsea has plenty of firepower in their midfield to keep the pressure ongoing on the defense of the Welsh visitors. For this week though, I believe that Alonso will be shining through as over their last few games, Swansea seem to be giving up more possession and attacking from the left side of the pitch which plays well into Alonso’s play. He’s also going to be lined up on the same side as Eden Hazard who has been playing very well recently, and while it will be tough to add Hazard in your lineups because of his expensive price, Alonso is a good alternative.
Diego Costa, $11,800 FD, $10,100 DK – Prior to scoring last weekend in the FA cup tie against the Wolves, Costa hadn’t scored a goal in three straight EPL matches, despite playing a full 90 minutes in each. Outside of the win against Arsenal (at home) Chelsea were held to draws against Liverpool and Burnley on the road. The pressure is squarely on Chelsea to score goals in this one and come out winners over Swansea. This will put the onus on Costa to prove that he’s still the elite scorer as he has come to be known. I expect a scoring streak to be built in this one, so be sure to take advantage of it. While Costa is expensive, I believe he’s in a great position to score a goal, if you look at what Swansea have allowed in recent weeks, in their last 9 matches they have allowed eight total goals to strikers, and nobody takes advantage of tight angles and opportunities better than Diego Costa.
Chelsea Secondary Plays
Pedro, $9,900 FD, $8,600 DK – He’s scored three goals in his last five starts and has been a mainstay in the lineup when the team performs well. He sometimes takes crosses and corners, but that task rotates amongst the midfielders. Still, the skill that is present in Pedro should be enough to warrant a selection in tournament lineups each and every week he gets the start. He’s not always going to score, but if he does, then you can count on low ownership in most situations, which should help propel you to the top of the standings.
Swansea Top Plays
Gylfi Sigurdsson, $8,500 FD, $8,400 DK – For those who don’t know, Gylfi Sigurdsson is the heart and sole of this Swansea team. The Iceman has been excellent for this team with eight goals and nine assists so far this season in their bid to save their season and stay up. In their last four games alone, Gylfi has three goals, two assists, 15 shots, with seven of them on target, 22 crosses, eight chances created and for good measure he’s added four interceptions and two tackles. The dude fills up the stat-sheet on most matches, and now has a run of nine of his last 10 games with double digit DraftKings points, and has had at least 20 FanDuel fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. Gylfi doesn’t care if he’s going against the league leaders, he’s going to get some points since the Swansea midfield and offense runs through him.
Swansea Secondary Plays
Federico Fernandez, $5,900 FD, $2,700 DK – Swansea will likely have to absorb plenty of offensive attacks from Chelsea and that could lead to plenty of opportunities for the defenders to rack up defensive stats such as blocks, tackles, interceptions and clearances. Fernandez and Mawson both have that potential, and Fernandez gets the nod because of his slightly cheaper salary. While Fernandez can reach double digits on DraftKings, he’s more suited to be a FanDuel play.
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough
| Crystal Palace | Middlesbrough | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 112 | 337 | ||||||||||
| L L L W L L | D D L D L D | ||||||||||
| 5-4-16 | 4-10-11 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.96 | 3.80 | 13.28 | 8.04 | 23.80 | 20.20 | 9.04 | 2.28 | 13.60 | 8.40 | 19.64 | 21.32 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham | Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt | Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley, van Aanholt | Negredo, Leadbitter | Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter | Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter | ||||||
With these two teams we have a couple of teams that have struggled to score goals in recent weeks. Middlesbrough has not won an EPL match since Christmas, and in that span have been outscored 8-3 as they drew four times and lost four times. Crystal Palace are in a similar rut, as they’ve only managed 8 points in their last EIGHTEEN premier league matches as they’ve lost 14, drew two and won two. In their last 6 matches Palace have been outscored 11-3 including losing at home 4-0 to hapless Sunderland. This paragraph is my way of telling you that I don’t trust anybody in this match to score goals. Middlesbrough are a decent defense, and Palace are a team that is lost. Both of these teams look like candidates for the drop to the Championship. There will be few plays to consider from either team.
Crystal Palace Top Plays
None
Crystal Palace Secondary Plays
Wilfried Zaha, $6,300 FD, $7,900 DK – Zaha has been the best player on this team for weeks, and while I don’t believe he’s going to truly dominate, he does provide some ability to score goals or lead to assists. But his true value lies in his ability to provide crosses and chances created for his team. He’s a tournament option at best.
Middlesbrough Top Plays
Middlesbrough Secondary Plays
Bernardo, $5,700 FD, $3,000 DK – He’ll be relied on for clearances and tackles and blocks for this team against a Crystal Palace team that likes to lob the ball in to Benteke. Bernardo should get some opportunities to rack up some defensive stats over on FanDuel, but his effectiveness on DraftKings should be limited.
Everton vs Sunderland
| Everton | Sunderland | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -234 | 691 | ||||||||||
| W W W D W D | D L L D W L | ||||||||||
| 11-8-6 | 5-4-16 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.84 | 4.92 | 11.48 | 6.52 | 20.40 | 19.88 | 9.52 | 2.88 | 17.60 | 10.40 | 15.40 | 24.40 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Baines, Lukaku, Barkley, Mirallas | Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Lukaku, Valencia | Mirallas, Baines, Barkley | Defoe, Borini, Watmore | Khazri, Defoe | Januzaj, Khazri, Gooch, Borini | ||||||
Everton and Sunderland is an interesting matchup. Both teams are miles apart when it comes to talent, and Everton have had some solid performances in recent weeks, they’ll undoubtedly look forward to this game. Though, Everton have also been notorious for stepping down to their opponent, but they should still come away with a win in this one. Sunderland, on the other hand, have had some mixed results recently with a 4-0 win against Crystal Palace, followed by a 4-0 loss to Southampton the very next week, there will be little doubt in my mind as to whether or not Everton will be able to hang a few goals on this team.
Everton Top Plays
Romelu Lukaku, $12,300 FD, $9,000 DK – As the striker on the second biggest favorite on the slate, Lukaku has a great opportunity to deliver some goals here. Everton have shown the ability to score goals in bunches in recent weeks and Lukaku is a talented forward who has 16 goals so far this season, which puts him second in the league. I expect him to add to this total.
Ross Barkley, $8,300 FD, $7,300 DK – Barkley is the top distributor on this team and would be a great tandem pick to go along with Lukaku. He’s playing in a very advanced role and has free reign across the final third to try to strike on goal or create for his teammates, which he is more than willing to do with five assists on the season.
Everton Secondary Plays
Seamus Coleman, $6,900 FD, $6,000 DK – Coleman has been terrific over the last few matches for Everton. He’s priced really high for a defender, and would be a great differential play for tournaments. He’s eclipsed double digits DraftKings points in five of his last six matches, and a matchup with Sunderland puts him in position to do so once more.
Sunderland Top Plays
Bryan Oviedo, $5,400 FD, $3,900 DK – Oviedo is on here because of the revenge factor. He used to play with Everton and had some quality matches. Now with his new team, Sunderland, he has played two games and he completed 90 minutes in each. He is a great play on FanDuel and a decent play on DraftKings. He does provide the ability to get tackles, interceptions, shots, crosses and if Sunderland are able to hold on to a clean sheet, he would play right into that.
Sunderland Secondary Plays
Jermain Defoe, $7,600 FD, $6,600 DK – Defoe is one of the best strikers in the league right now. He already has five goals in 2017 and managed to score twice against Crystal Palace. If Sunderland score, it seems to come through him as he has a hand in 16 goals for the team so far (14 G, 2 A) and the team as a whole has scored 24 times.
Hull vs Burnley
| Hull | Burnley | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 120 | 291 | ||||||||||
| L W L D W L | L W L W L D | ||||||||||
| 5-5-15 | 9-3-13 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.16 | 3.36 | 17.44 | 9.80 | 18.80 | 24.24 | 10.12 | 3.28 | 18.00 | 9.68 | 17.20 | 23.28 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Hernandez, Huddlestone | Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro | Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro | Gray, Barnes, Vokes | Brady, Barton, Kightly, Boyd, Barnes, Barton | Boyd, Brady, Barton, Kightly | ||||||
Hull hosting Burnley will be an interesting match with Burnley being the worst team on the road having gathered just a single point, and Hull being a bottom five team at home that has just 15 points in 12 home matches. Hull do have the upper hand here especially with their recent additions in Markovic, Grosicki and Niassi. The team recovered nicely from the loss of Snodgrass with the addition of that group. Hull have done well since the arrival of Marco Silva as the new manager. On the other side, Burnley will win a road game eventually as I doubt they can go an entire season without a win away from home. The addition of Robbie Brady should help the team push forward and make some noise in this one. Overall, this is a game that has some fantasy potential with lots of cheap options.
Hull Top Plays
Kamil Grosicki, $5,100 FD, $5,900 DK – He’s the corner kick taker on the team and he has been setting up nicely for his teammates. He had single digit points for his team in the only two games he’s played for them so far, but he’s very capable of doing more. Against Burnley, he should create opportunities for the team to score goals. He’s my pick for a goal or assist this week.
Hull Secondary Plays
Oumar Niasse, $6,400 FD, $5,200 DK – One of the attacking three that could have a good game, I like him more than Markovic because of the form he’s in right now. He had a couple of really good runs against both Arsenal and Liverpool, he’s surely going to break through this match against Burnley especially after scoring against Liverpool.
Burnley Top Plays
Robbie Brady, $6,200 FD, $5,300 DK – Brady finally got the start last time and was able score a wonderful goal against Chelsea as the team was able to hold the league leaders to a point. This time, the task is harder as Burnley have no wins on the road. Brady might be able to change that though as he’s going to be a main attacking piece in this one. That said, I likely wouldn’t be taking him for cash games, but he’d be a tournament option only.
Burnley Secondary Plays
Tom Heaton, $7,300 FD, $4,500 DK – Heaton is one of the top keepers. He’s on the road so that lowers his upside a bit, but I believe that he’s the best road keeper on this slate as he has the best chance at saves and clean sheets. Even if he doesn’t end up with a win, I believe he gets double digit points.
Michael Keane, $6,400 FD, $2,800 DK – If you want to get a solid defender that will rack up the defensive stats on FanDuel, then Keane or his partner Mee will be the guys you want to target. Keane does have that skillset to stop an attacker and break an attack. This gives him the opportunities to get clearances, tackles and blocks.
West Bromwich Albion vs Bournemouth
| West Bromwich Albion | Bournemouth | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 301 | |||||||||||
| W L W D W D | D L D L L L | ||||||||||
| 10-7-8 | 7-5-13 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.32 | 3.24 | 12.96 | 7.76 | 19.88 | 22.12 | 11.68 | 4.16 | 13.32 | 8.08 | 18.16 | 18.80 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Wilson, Stanislas, Daniels | Arter | Stanislas, Daniels, Arter, Pugh, Gradel | |||||||||
West Brom are now unbeaten in four games and are ecstatic to welcome Bournemouth to The Hawthornes. The Cherries have won just one in nine games and are winless in 2017. The numbers don’t lie and all point to Bournemouth conceding at least two goals and failing to really threaten or score against a back-to-being-tough West Brom defense that has two straight home clean sheets. The most likely score line here is a 2-0 or 1-0 win for West Brom that would help keep West Brom close to that top 7, where they are currently in eighth place.
West Bromwich Albion Top Plays
Chris Brunt, $6,000 FD, $5,900 DK – Despite two sub par games, Brunt is still a solid pick from this West Brom team. His DraftKings price is still rising despite not eclipsing double digits two weeks in a row, he’s still going to be in a position to score or assist this week against Bournemouth. He does have at least a chance created in each of his last four matches and has 24 crosses in his last three matches.
West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays
Nacer Chadli, $6,200 FD, $5,200 DK – Chadli makes for an interesting tournament play because on DK his price is just at $5,200 and on FD his price is $6,200. He can still score goals and threaten the defense and playing at home he might get those opportunities. He scored a goal last time out and had an assist the match before. He’s primed up for another big game.
Bournemouth Top Plays
Junior Stanislas, $6,200 FD, $6,500 DK – If you were to take anybody from this Cherries team, then Stanislas should be that guy. Stanislas is a capable winger who will able to support whichever forward the team starts and he can be a solid contributor. That said, because of the matchup being a low scoring one (potentially) he’s just a tournament option.
Bournemouth Secondary Plays
None
Watford vs West Ham
| Watford | West Ham | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 163 | 200 | ||||||||||
| L D D W W L | L W W L W D | ||||||||||
| 8-6-11 | 9-5-11 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.80 | 3.80 | 13.24 | 7.80 | 18.20 | 22.36 | 13.36 | 3.36 | 13.20 | 8.76 | 19.12 | 20.20 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Deeney | Holebas | Watson, Capoue, Holebas | Noble, Carroll, Lanzini | Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell | Lanzini, Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell, | ||||||
The late game this week features West Ham visiting Watford. West Ham have been in decent form recently with recent wins over Southampton, Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace. They also finished a 2-2 draw with West Brom last time out and look to take all three points on the road against a scrappy Watford team. Watford will not be a pushover though with some solid results recently where they almost escaped with a point from Old Trafford and after beating Arsenal 2-1 on the road. So this match will end up being an interesting one for both these teams as they both try to get the win. The oddsmakers believe West Ham to be slight underdogs but neither team really gets the upperhand here.
Watford Top Plays
Troy Deeney, $7,400 FD, $5,400 DK – He now has seven goals on the season and playing at home, he’ll look to score against this West Ham team for the second time this season.
Watford Secondary Plays
Mauro Zarate, $5,700 FD, $5,500 DK – Zarate signing with Watford has helped Deeney and the new guy hasn’t looked bad either. Prior to coming to the EPL, Zarate was a standout with Fiorentina where he finished off his stay there with two straight games with goals scored. Against this West Ham team, he might get to open up his English account this time around against his former team.
Heurelho Gomes, $6,500 FD, $4,800 DK – Gomes is at home and is a slight favorite for Watford. He might be able to come away with a clean sheet, and/or win. He’s worth considering, and he should face some shots as well.
West Ham Top Plays
Robert Snodgrass, $7,200 FD, $8,300 DK – Snodgrass has fit into the Payet role quite nicely. He still hasn’t scored a goal or assisted on one with his new team, but this is a matchup that could feature one of those (or both)
West Ham Secondary Plays
Michail Antonio, $7,300 FD, $7,100 DK – Antonio scored twice in the first leg of this match with assists from his former teammate Payet. He’s a tournament option only here in this situation as he hasn’t been able to deliver on goal scoring lately, but he’s still very capable or scoring despite not scoring since the Boxing day fixtures. This is why he is firmly in my tournament options only. especially with the recent price drop that he has incurred.