EPL Grind Down: Week 32

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-04-09 04:52:59

With a short week we’re faced with an interesting set of matchups as we have six games in the main Saturday slate. General lineup building this week will rely on targeting some high floor options. On DK that means going after crosses and midfielders who take a lot of shots for their teams. Meanwhile on FD that means going with some defensive midfielders who could get shots as well as defensive stats. There are a couple of #narrativestreet plays to consider and some #revenge games in there as well.

As always, this Grind Down is meant as a guide for you to understand how to break down your teams, but should also help you analyze the games. If you do want to spend some time with me on Saturday morning, I’ll have rankings up, a chat room as well as projections over in the marketplace so come on over and we’ll chat Saturday about lineups, last minute advice and any surprise starts.

Otherwise, be cognizant of the lineups that are released an hour prior to lock, those will make or break your own lineups as things can and will change in the last hour prior to lock.

West Ham vs Swansea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Ham						Swansea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				109						292
				D L L L L L						L W L L D L
				9-6-16						8-4-19
13.35	3.42	13.48	9.19	20.52	19.26	11.03	3.81	13.90	8.81	22.87	18.94
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Noble, Carroll, Lanzini		Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell		Lanzini, Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell,		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson, Routledge

In a match that has some big implications in the race from the bottom, West Ham, who currently sit in 15th place, host Swansea who fell back into 18th place after their home loss to Tottenham on Wednesday. Swansea were actually ahead the majority of the game and only conceded an equalizing goal in the 88th minute and then two more in quick succession to lose 3-1. West Ham on the other hand played Arsenal and also conceded three goals in defeat. This match will be more even as the oddsmakers have the home team slight favorites, but rest assured, this one could go either way. West Ham dominated the first leg of this matchup back on Boxing day to the tune of a 4-1 win, in that matchup Andy Carroll, Winston Reid, Michail Antonio and Andre Ayew scored the goals. That match was also the nail in the coffin for Bob Bradley that ultimately led to his firing from the club, so their supporters will remember this matchup and likely would travel to support their team in this away match in London. West Ham have had their own troubles recently with Payet replacement, Robert Snodgrass not performing as expected and not filling the gap left by the Frenchman as seamlessly as everybody (including myself) predicted. Nevertheless, if Snodgrass gets the start this time (he’s started on the bench last time out) then expect him to challenge Sigurdsson in the midfield for the title of most influential player in this game.

West Ham Top Plays

Manuel Lanzini, $7200 FD, $7200 DK – Lanzini has been carrying the load for this team in recent weeks and has played spectacular ball. In the previous few games he’s gotten some fantasy numbers, specifically on FanDuel where he manages to average 17.7 points. If he scores a goal then his upside is very high as a player with 40+ FD points, and on DK he can reach 20+ if he manages a goal. With Antonio a doubt with an illness, Lanzini carries some of that upside from goal scoring opportunities

West Ham Secondary Plays

Andre Ayew, $6200 FD, $5900 DK – Ayew is one of the narrative street plays this week, as he comes into a matchup going against his brother Jordan Ayew. Both have been starting recently, so it stands to reason that their managers will target them both once again. It’s notable that when these two last met in opposite sides in the EPL they both scored goals and they seem to have a friendly/brotherly rivalry going. Their prices are relatively cheap, so it’s not a bad fantasy punt to look in their directions.

Swansea Top Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, $9000 FD, $11700 DK – One of the higher-priced options on the slate is Gylfi Sigurdsson, who can deliver double-digit crosses and take 2-3 shots, get 1-3 chances created credited to his name and possibly even score a goal or two. He’s the main penalty kick taker and the free kick specialist on the team. There isn’t much negative to say about him other than his price tag is a bit prohibitive, which would preclude us of hammering him too hard in our teams.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Jordan Ayew, $6900 FD, $4900 DK – The other part of the narrative street brother matchup. Jordan has less of a history with this team, but he’s been starting in the last two and could contribute to this team in the right matchup, which could be this one

Manchester City vs Hull

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Manchester City						Hull
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-475						1435
				W W D D D L						D L W L W W
				17-7-6						8-6-17
15.73	5.13	8.23	4.93	20.97	13.93	10.45	3.32	17.10	10.06	19.48	24.16
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
						Hernandez, Huddlestone		Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro		Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro

When Hull visit Manchester City this weekend, it will be an opportunity for Manchester City to recover from a tough defeat on the road to a Chelsea team that they overpowered and controlled the majority of the play and flow in the midweek fixtures. City played a good game but didn’t have the transition between the midfield and the forwards that usually results in positive goal results. Their one goal scored was off a mistake from Thibaut Courtois, who failed to clear a ball past David Silva, who took the shot but failed to score and the rebound bounced back to Aguero, who slotted it home to equalize in the first half. Hull, meanwhile, managed to score four goals against Middlesbrough after averaging less than a goal scored a match in what was their most prolific goal scoring display of the season. In this match, Manchester City come in as a heavy favorite in what is likely to be a very one-sided affair as City try to make up the ground they lost with their loss in the midweek matchup with Chelsea. Hull, on the other hand, will be more than content with putting on a good display and forcing City to earn their three points in hopes that they escape with a point or at least a good showing and a narrow defeat.

Manchester City Top Plays

David Silva, $8700 FD, $7300 DK – David Silva has been the cash play on this team for the better part of the season, since the big fantasy drop off of Kevin De Bruyne. Targeting Silva guarantees that you’re getting the midfielder who is involved in all the plays. Of course, this means that KDB will step his game up now that I’ve called him out. There are other midfielders on this squad to look to, including Sane (who’s been great for the team) and Yaya Toure. City in general need a solid performance from their midfield in order to match the high expectations from this match, and Silva performing at a high level will be a key factor in meeting those expectations.

Sergio Aguero, $12900 FD, $10200 DK – Aguero is one of the best strikers in the world when he’s on. He’s recognizing that the pressure is squarely on his shoulders to deliver for this team, and so far this season he’s managed to score 15 goals for the team. He’ll be looking to add to this total as he tries to get his name back in the conversation for the Golden Boot (top scorer); he’s six goals behind Lukaku at the moment.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Gael Clichy, $5800 FD, $4200 DK – Clichy hasn’t been a household fantasy name this season, but City has relied a little on their full backs recently. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to fantasy success. Will Clichy deliver on that? If he gets the start for the team, then he’s cheap enough on DK to consider there, and he might even come in handy on FanDuel if he pushes part of the attack and gets lots of touches.

Hull Top Plays

Alfred N’Diaye, $5400 FD, $3100 DK -So Hull is a very large underdog, and they are on the road. That means that their defensive midfielders and central defenders will be very busy. This is a good thing to target over on FanDuel, as Alfred N’Diaye should get his fair share of opportunities to get tackles, interceptions, and blocked shots.

Hull Secondary Plays

Andrea Ranocchia, $6300 FD, $2800 DK – On the same note, Ranocchia should also be heavily targeted for defensive stats because of the potential pressure the three-man back line will feel from the Citizens attack. Ranocchia will be tasked with guarding the right flank of City, which is where Sane, Silva and Clichy would be operating. This assignment is shared with Andrew Robertson (who can deliver crosses and takes free kicks and corners), but they’ll both be tasked with stopping the City attack. Ranocchia should be able to get double-digit clearances and some tackles to go along with it for close to 20+ FanDuel points.

Middlesbrough vs Burnley

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Middlesbrough						Burnley
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				142						246
				D L L L D L						D L L D L W
				4-11-15						10-5-16
9.17	2.37	14.03	8.93	19.73	22.67	10.23	3.16	18.06	9.87	16.77	24.39
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Negredo, Leadbitter		Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter		Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter		Gray, Barnes, Vokes		Brady, Barton, Kightly, Boyd, Barnes, Barton		Boyd, Brady, Barton, Kightly

When the league’s worst road team visits the league’s second-worst home team, you end up with Burnley going to Middlesbrough to bore everybody out of their minds. Actually, that’s not entirely true. The only matchup worse than this might be if Middlesbrough somehow had Burnley’s road record and were visiting Sunderland. But let’s not digress about how bad this matchup has the potential to be. Middlesbrough have been pathetic at home, scoring just 12 goals in their 14 matches at home, by far the lowest rate of any team in the league, with just 13 points total at home. Burnley, on the other hand, find themselves in 14th place and relatively safe from relegation simply because the schedule demands they play at home for half their matches. Unfortunately for them, however, they have to play the other half of their matches away. Which brings us to this week’s abomination of a soccer match. Combining these teams’ goals in their respective venues (Middlesbrough home, Burnley away) gives us a 21-goal total, which is the total that Romelu Lukaku has for Everton in the EPL so far this season. Needless to say, this match won’t feature a lot of goals despite Middlesbrough being part of a six-goal thriller with Hull on Wednesday. These two teams combine to average 19.6 goals per game, which is less than what Tottenham averages at home by themselves. If you haven’t figured this out by now, I won’t be recommending many players from these two teams.

Middlesbrough Top Plays

Adama Traore, $5400 FD, $4600 DK – Somebody has to attack for the home team, and that attack will have to come from the midfield. The most talented player on this roster is likely Traore, who, if he is on, can be very good and has put pressure on some of the top teams this season in his attacks. Middlesbrough does desperately need these three points, so picking Traore to have an impact makes some sense. Of course, this is still Middlesbrough, who struggles with finishing.

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

Rudy Gestede, $7100 FD, $4500 DK – or Alvaro Negredo – If they somehow manage to not struggle with finishing this week, then one of these two guys will be the one to slot it in if given an opportunity.

Burnley Top Plays

Ben Mee, $6600 FD, $2900 DK – Mee is almost a must-play every week on FanDuel with his teammate Michael Keane, as they both deliver cash-game worthy consistent results. Mee is the more consistent option as he delivers more 20+ fantasy games over on FD. He’s a bit more expensive than Keane because of this. However, both are capable of scoring 20-30 FanDuel points. I would not rely on them for DraftKings however because of the lack of offensive production.

Burnley Secondary Plays

Tom Heaton, $7100 FD, $4500 DK – Heaton is going against the weakest offensive in the league, and he’s playing very well recently. Of course, he’s on the road, so there is a chance he will not deliver. He’s cheap enough on DK to consider for a fraction of his price over on FD, but he’s a good play on either site.

Stoke vs Liverpool

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Stoke						Liverpool
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				306						-102
				L W D L L L						L W W D W D
				9-9-13						17-9-5
10.84	3.45	14.61	8.42	18.48	20.19	16.65	6.06	8.29	4.94	21.84	14.19
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic		Allen, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, Arnautovic.		Milner, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho, Moreno		Henderson, Milner, Coutinho, Sturridge		Milner, Henderson,Coutinho, Firmino

With just four points in their last six matches, Stoke are one of those teams in danger of falling further down the table, as they currently sit at 12th place with just 36 points, only eight points out of the relegation zone. And with teams below them like Swansea, Crystal Palace and Hull playing generally improved football in recent weeks, the danger is very real. They’ve also faced a tough schedule, where they’ve gone against teams in the top six in three of their last six matches and face Liverpool today. They’ve also fallen victims to Leicester’s resurgence, and Burnley’s impeccable home record. Overall, while it may seem that Stoke has something to worry about, the results should sort themselves out and they’ll end up staying up this season, but not without going through a couple of more tough matches, starting with hosting Liverpool this weekend. Liverpool are coming off their own rough patch away from Anfield. They have failed to win a match against an EPL opponent in six straight matches away from home. They come into this one having failed to hold a 2-1 lead conceding a late goal to Bournemouth’s Joshua King in the 87th minute. Liverpool will likely feature an unchanged front three again with Origi flanked by Coutinho and Firmino as they try to win a likely tough matchup in Stoke City. Liverpool will likely mimic the Chelsea game plan from a couple of weeks back where they’ll force the action mostly in Stoke’s half and try to break down the team with methodical passes and spreading the ball out to force mistakes from the defense. This will lead to a low scoring but intense match that features plenty of touches and some outside shots that make for easy saves for the keeper.

Stoke Top Plays

Lee Grant, $6900 FD, $4100 DK – Lee Grant might be one of the best goalkeeping options this week. He checks all the boxes. 1) going against a top team at home. 2) fairly cheap on FD but super cheap on DK, 3) opponent has a mixed bag of results in recent weeks that you can’t truly expect Liverpool to score a barage of goals, rather you’ll hope they put on an attacking show but lack some in the finishing which would be great for Grant as he gets points for the saves that will come his way.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Joe Allen, $6300 FD, $4700 DK – The second #narrativestreet play of the week is Joe Allen who gets to see his old teammates in this matchup with Liverpool. Joe Allen is a player that is very difficult to predict his performances because of the way he gets goals (usually with crazy shots, or off of rebounds), in this case, he’s likely going to be extra motivated playing against his former team that he’s going to be all over the place. A perfrect environment for Joe Allen to score goals.

Charlie Adam, $5500 FD, $4300 DK – Charlie Adam had 7 shots in his last game for Stoke and those didn’t result in a goal scored. This isn’t exactly good news if you think that goals lead to more goals. However, if you believe (like I do) that an active player will remain active until forced to do otherwise, then Adam should remain active in this team’s attack. The fact that they’re going against Liverpool only encourages this prediction because of the Red’s propensity to play down to their opponents level.

Liverpool Top Plays

Divock Origi, $9300 FD, $6700 DK – Divock Origi has been starting in the central forward position to give the team a solid number 9 in the absense of Daniel Sturridge who is unsurprisingly not fit (again). Origi has goals in his last two matches for Pool that I’m not scared to target him again this week.

Philippe Coutinho, $9500 FD, $8700 DK – Coutinho had to leave the last match due to illness. He should be feeling better now, but in case Klopp decides to give him a break, then feel free to replace him with Firimino in your teams. Otherwise, if Wijnaldum gets a start in the front three then I’m an instant fan of his and will look to move him into my teams. Coutinho himself is a high floor high upside player as he loves to take crazy shots, which can lead to crazy goals. He’s also on free kicks and corners for the team raising the floor on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Bromwich Albion						Southampton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				207						155
				W L L W D L						L W W L D W
				12-8-11						10-7-12
10.32	3.16	13.42	7.90	19.74	22.90	15.34	5.00	10.72	6.45	25.97	17.10
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
						Austin, Tadic, Bertrand, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Van Dijk		Ward-Prowse, Tadic, Davis, Bertrand

Without Salomon Rondon last time out to start the match, West Brom struggled to maintain a foothold in the match with Watford on the road in the midweek fixtures. That led to them conceding two goals at the early mark in the second half. This ultimately was the call to their manager Tony Pulis to bring Salomon Rondon and James Morrison back into the match, after earlier substituting Matt Phillips just prior to goal number two. That injection into the lineup helped the team hold more of the possession and ultimately gave them more chances to score goals despite their failure to do so. This would lead us to believe that Pulis will likely start Morrison and Rondon and reinsert them into the lineup for this week’s fixture against the Saints. Southampton on the other hand comes into this matchup as losers of four of their last six matches away from home, but they’ve also been playing very well in recent matches with improved performances from several key players. Dusan Tadic and James Ward-Prowse were essential pieces in their come from behind victory over Crystal Palace with the two of them combining on the wings to give opportunities to the attacking players. Shane Long specifically took advantage of those passes as he had taken 7 shots. This match will likely be a hard fought one, the bookies have this one going slightly in favor of the away team as they have been the better outfit as of late. The likely scenario here is that West Brom might pile on the pressure early with Southampton trying to find a way to break through after the first 20 minutes of the match. This means prolonged periods of pressure from the Saints midfield which ultimately improves their fantasy outlook.

West Bromwich Albion Top Plays

Ben Foster, $6400 FD, $4600 DK – With Foster as a home keeper, that means he’s already got the upper hand in the eyes of the oddsmakers in an even matchup. In this case, the bookies like the Saints just a little bit more than him indicating that he might be facing some shots on target that could lead to some saves. West Brom could still walk out of this game with a 2-0 win and that would give him at least 10 points on DK and any save he gets is worth its weight in gold over on FanDuel.

Matt Phillips, $6200 FD, $6500 DK – When Phillips and Rondon came on for West Brom in the last match, it changed the complextion of the team and allowed them to push forward and gave the midfield the forward tools needed in order to push forward and try to get a goal or two. The team didn’t manage to get any goals out of it, but the results were noticeable. Phillips is a key part of this team and his inclusion will mean that they pressure the defense and would likely result in more attacks and pressure on the opposing goalkeeper.

West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays

Salomon Rondon, $6800 FD, $5600 DK – Rondon came on late last game because of his travels over the international break. But now that he’s all rested up and healthy expect that he’ll come on from the start of the match and he’ll be trying to score some goals. He’s a true wild card option on offense and in fantasy because he doesn’t always score but he’s always in the mix for it. Unfortunately though he doesn’t provide much else outside of scoring.

Southampton Top Plays

James Ward-Prowse, $6500 FD, $5900 DK – JWP has been in great shape in recent games as he’s delivered fantasy results for the team in two of his last three matches over on DK and in five of his last seven games on FD where he reached 20+ fantasy points. Expect that production to continue as he continues to start as part of the attacking four in a 4-2-3-1.

*Dusan Tadic, $6900 FD, $6700 DK*Tadic is another part of that attacking 4 who should get plenty of looks in fantasy this week. Tadic has the ability to break down the defenses and be a game changer if he’s on. The expectation is that he’ll be pushing for that again this week to warrant his inclusion in the lineups from here on out for this team.

Bournemouth vs Chelsea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Bournemouth						Chelsea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				521						-165
				L D W W D D						D W W W L W
				9-8-14						23-3-4
11.65	4.13	14.32	8.61	17.39	20.94	14.50	5.20	8.50	4.83	18.70	17.77
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Wilson, Stanislas, Daniels		Arter		Stanislas, Daniels, Arter, Pugh, Gradel		Hazard, Fabregas, Costa		Alonso, Luiz, Willian, Fabregas, Matic		Willian, Fabregas, Pedro, Hazard

Bournemouth now are on a five game undefeated run including draws with Liverpool and Manchester United. The Liverpool one was midweek and the team worked hard to pull it off after taking an early lead then losing it and falling behind only to come back in the last few minutes and snatch a point on the road against a top 4 team. Now they get the league leaders and ones who have been playing very well as of late (with the exception of a surprising loss to Crystal Palace). But Chelsea managed to right the ship soon after with a 2-1 win over Manchester United courtesy of exceptional performances from Fabregas, Hazard and Pedro. This will be the late match as both teams will look to come away with points here. Bournemouth want to prove that they can hang with the elite teams, and Chelsea need to put them away to inch even closer to the title.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Artur Boruc, $7200 FD, $3900 DK – A home underdog always points to the keeper to me. A very large percentage of keepers that have reached 15+ DK fantasy points in the last 2 years have come from home underdogs, and that has made these goalkeepers the ones to target every opportunity. In this case, Boruc isn’t as good an option as Grant because the opponent, Chelsea, are more reserved offensively. Chelsea plays the match like a chess game where they slowly break down the opponent instead of a constant brigade of attacks. This hurts the keeper, but only slightly. Still, Boruc will be cheap enough to consider on DK and a good option for FD.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Steve Cook, $6600 FD, $2600 DK – In keeping with the theme, defenders on FD in an underdog situation get the same benefit as goalkeepers. In this case, Steve Cook shoud have plenty of opportunities to gather up tackles, interceptions, clearances and blocks to add to his point total. Bournemouth are a capable team at home so he’ll have support from the rest of the team making him a relatively safe play to target over on FD.

Chelsea Top Plays

Eden Hazard, $9,700 FD, $8,900 DK – Hazard is on penalties. He’s also taking free kicks. He also is feeling really good about himself, which is usually the best recipe for Hazard success. The attacking midfielder is being talked about as one of the best footballers in the world and he’s out to prove that he belongs. It’s matches like this one that will show his true metal. I believe that he has a chance to deliver on that promise.

Pedro, $8,400 FD, $8,600 DK – Pedro was the force behind the won penalty that sealed the deal last match against City, and because of that he’s likely to get the start again. He’s been one of the more creative factors on this team as they look to expand their lead on top of the table. Pedro is relatively cheap on both sites as he’s under $9K making him cheaper than other players who have the same upside/floor.

Chelsea Secondary Plays

Diego Costa, $10700 FD, $9300 DK – Will he score again? He’s now four goals behind Lukaku in the Golden Boot race and has gone three games in the EPL without scoring. He did take 9 shots against Palace as Chelsea tried to wrestle back some points, but he followed that up with just a single shota against City. Now against Bournemouth, I expect him to take more shots and to potentially score a couple of goals to keep me happy as a Chelsea fan.