EPL Grind Down: Week 33

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-04-15 15:21:36

As always, this Grind Down is meant as a guide for you to understand how to break down your teams, but should also help you analyze the games.

If you’ve got any more questions after reading, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. Good luck in your contests!

Sunderland vs West Ham

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Sunderland						West Ham
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				224						133
				L L D L L L						L L L L L W
				5-5-21						10-6-16
9.94	2.94	18.23	10.84	16.26	25.00	13.38	3.50	13.22	9.03	20.44	19.28
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Defoe, Borini, Watmore		Khazri, Defoe		Januzaj, Khazri, Gooch, Borini		Noble, Carroll, Lanzini		Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell		Lanzini, Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell,

“The first matchup we’ll tackle this week is Sunderland hosting West Ham United. Over their last six weeks, these two teams have actually been pretty close when it comes to results on the field. Over that span, Sunderland has 1 draw and 5 losses, while West Ham has 5 losses and a win. The win came last week against Swansea by a strike from Kouyate who took a shot from deep that sailed past the keeper and looked like it wasn’t expected. The offensive players were able to draw the central defenders outside while Kouyate took the pass from Snodgrass and saw daylight in at about 25 yards and took his shot. Ultimately, this isn’t the kind of play that can be predicted, but it does show that the manager, Steven Bilic, likes to play these tricks to try to make room for his players. With West Ham playing on the road in this one, it will be interesting if they get such opportunities once more against a weak Sunderland team. Speaking of Sunderland, they seem to have a struggle this season and currently sit bottom of the table at just 20 points from 31 matches. They are 10 points out of safety and with just seven matches to go, it doesn’t look too promising for the Black Cats. If Sunderland were to save their season, they will have to start this week as this is the first of five straight matches against opponents in the bottom seven of the table. Sunderland could conceivably turn their season around if they get three wins from their next three home games, show some competitive spirit in the next two away games, and could find themselves away from relegation by the time week 36 is complete.

I expect that this week’s match will be a tough one. There won’t be a lot of high quality football, but this match will feature some fighting spirit. Sunderland has been able to produce some strong home results this season when they needed to, including draws with Tottenham and Liverpool. I expect both teams to line up attacking and to try to beat out their opponent through some solid midfield play.”

Sunderland Top Plays

Fabio Borini, $6800 FD, $4200 DK – Without Larsson, who will be out because of a red card, Borini will have to get the start and with his cheap price tag on DraftKings it makes him a very appealing play because of the potential increased opportunity and role on this team in what could be a winnable match.

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Jermain Defoe, $7400 FD, $6100 DK – When thinking of Sunderland, their best player is Defoe who has the majority of the goals for the team this season and while the old dog has had some bad games, this is a matchup that is easily exploitable and could see him score a goal or two if given the opportunities.

Jordan Pickford, $7100 FD, $4400 DK – Possibly the only goalkeeper that truly fits the bill of “home underdog” is Pickford. He’s had some solid outings at home this season and could continue to do that this week. His opponent is a team that doesn’t score a lot of goals, but should threaten with a score or at least some shots making him an excellent fantasy candidate.

West Ham Top Plays

Robert Snodgrass, $6800 FD, $7400 DK – Since his move to West Ham, Snodgrass has shown little of what set him apart with his former team, Hull and with the Scottish national team. Instead, he struggled a little in the early days and is now starting to look like something resembling that ‘big fish in a little pond’ that he was inching closer towards earlier this season. In his last few games, he’s increased his crossing numbers and in turn his fantasy output.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Manuel Lanzini, $7300 FD, $6900 DK – Lanzini will form part of the attacking midfield and that would fit great in this matchup where Sunderland are a team prone for mistakes which can be exploited by attacking midfielders who take advantage of blown coverages in the defense.

Stoke vs Hull

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Stoke						Hull
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-102						330
				W D L L L L						L W L W W L
				9-9-14						8-6-18
10.78	3.47	14.63	8.44	18.63	20.16	10.34	3.25	17.31	10.25	19.09	23.97
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic		Allen, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, Arnautovic.		Hernandez, Huddlestone		Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro		Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro

“With just four points in their last six matches, Stoke are dropping fast in the table. Of course, they had the misfortune of running into some tough opposition in that period: Liverpool, Chelsea, a resurgent Leicester, Manchester City, even Burnley is a very tough opponent on their home turf. Stoke now get to play at home against a team that is below them in the table. Hull have had a better run lately. They have three wins in their last six matches with some solid displays against Middlesbrough, West Ham, and a loss to Manchester City (3-1) last time out that they’ll want to forget and move on from. Hull are currently sitting just one spot above the relegation zone and they are only six points behind their opponents in this one. But one slip and they might find themselves passed by Swansea who are just two points behind them. This match will feature some competitive football because of how high the stakes are getting.

Stoke are going to be missing Joe Allen, and Jonathan Walters and Charlie Adam are in doubt in this one. Meanwhile Hull are getting Tom Huddlestone and Dieumerci Mbokani back and their manager, Marco Silva, should have plenty of options. “

Stoke Top Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, $5700 FD, $6500 DK – In his return from injury last time out, Shaqiri delivered 10 crosses and recorded an assist as well as two chances created. Shaqiri has had a very tough season but he has shown how vital he is to the team. If he starts alongside Ramadan Sobhi in the midfield, they’ll have Arnautovic along with them to pressure the Hull defense.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Saido Berahino, $7000 FD, $4300 DK – He is likely the cheapest starting forward this week and that makes Berahino a great play given that he’s a home keeper against a team that has conceded goals this season. He’s only 4.3K on DK but he’s $7K on FD making him slightly more expensive there, but still an appealing option given his potential for goals. The only scary part is that he hasn’t scored a goal yet this season.

Hull Top Plays

Oumar Niasse, $6900 FD, $4100 DK – As the striker on this team, Niasse has energized this lineup more than ever before and he’s scored four goals already this season including a brace against Swansea a few weeks ago. His match against Manchester City is forgettable, but he did manage to score a goal in the 4-2 thrashing of Middlesbrough two weeks ago. Look for him to get more chances to score again this week and even come through.

Hull Secondary Plays

Tom Huddlestone, $5300 FD, $3000 DK – He returns from suspension and likely gets the start as a central midfielder on the road. For fantasy purposes, he fits right in with FanDuel’s scoring breakdown, making him a great option for this week. He also ventures forward with the offense and could potentially take chances or even create them for his teammates if given the opportunity.

Everton vs Burnley

Sh/Gm	Shots A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Everton			Burnley
		Vegas Odds					Vegas Odds
							734
							L L D L W D
		#N/A					10-6-16
			10.16	3.13	17.91	9.81	16.75	24.34
Penalties	Direct Free Kicks	Corners & Indirect Free Kicks	Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
			Gray, Barnes, Vokes		Brady, Barton, Kightly, Boyd, Barnes, Barton		Boyd, Brady, Barton, Kightly

The knee-jerk reaction is to look at this matchup, see Burnley on the road, and dismiss them automatically. The team has been absolutely terrible on the road this season with no wins and just 4 draws to go with 12 losses. In fact, the team only has 9 goals scored on the road this season and 30 conceded. If not for their incredible home performances, they’d be a favorite for relegation this season. Instead, they sit in 12th place and 8 points out of the relegation zone. However, a closer look at their record shows that their last six away matches have been an improvement. The team has scored 5 of their 9 goals in these matches, and have gathered 75% of their points away from home in these last six matches (3 points). Unfortunately, that “solid” run may have come to an end with this matchup where they visit Everton in what is one of the best home court advantages in the Premier League this season. Everton have the third best record at home and have won their last six matches there by a combined score of 23-5, including four of those matches where they scored at least four goals in each match. Everton will likely come away heavily victorious in this one, though there is a small possibility of complacency on the part of Everton as they are facing a lesser opponent. And while this match doesn’t mean much for Burnley in terms of league position (they likely don’t expect many points), Everton will need the points from this one to keep challenging for a top 4 spot and potential European football next season.

**Everton * *Top Plays**

Romelu Lukaku, $12100 FD, $10600 DK – With 23 goals on the season in the Premier League and 29 overall, Lukaku is the league leader in goals scored and now leads the injured Harry Kane by four goals, leaving him with the inside track to the golden boot award on the season. And while this may end up being the last season for Lukaku in Goodison Park, he’s determined to go out in a bang as he’s on his way to helping his team reach Europe for next season. This is a matchup that says there are plenty of opportunities for Lukaku to score goals and thus, he’ll likely come through.

**Everton * *Secondary Plays**

Kevin Mirallas, $6500 FD, $7200 DK – With two assists in his last match, Mirallas is getting back to his old ways of productivity and should continue the trend going forward with this team looking for a big win this weekend. Mirallas is a good way to get exposure to this team’s offense without breaking the bank with a very expensive Lukaku.

Burnley Top Plays

Ben Mee, $6400 FD, $2600 DK – Mee is a standard pick in all my fantasy articles for FanDuel. He’s consistent in getting fantasy points from blocks, clearances, tackles and interceptions. He’s been extremely valuable for this team and in this match where they’ll face an uphill battle from the start, he might have to work extra just to help them not lose by a large number of goals.

Burnley Secondary Plays

N/A

Crystal Palace vs Leicester

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Crystal Palace						Leicester
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-123						382
				W W W W L W						W W W W W L
				10-4-17						10-6-15
12.03	3.65	13.81	8.35	23.32	21.58	11.68	3.90	14.39	8.68	18.97	23.52
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham		Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt		Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley, van Aanholt		Mahrez, Slimani, Vardy, Ulloa		Mahrez, Fuchs, Drinkwater, Albrighton, Gray		Albrighton, Fuchs, Mahrez, Drinkwater, James, Gray

In the battle of the redemption squads, both Leicester and Crystal Palace have really turned it around in recent weeks. With Crystal Palace clawing their way back from last place up to 16th now with wins in five of their last six matches, including surprise wins against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (2-1) and against Arsenal (3-0) last week. Palace have proven that they can turn it on when it matters the most and the team has exhibited the type of performance that had them as a tough opponent all through last season. Their opponent are none other than defending champions Leicester City who come into this matchup on short rest after traveling to Atletico Madrid in the quarter finals of the Champions League where they escaped from there with a narrow 1-0 defeat that gives them hope heading into the return leg in England in two weeks time. But in the meantime, they have to take care of business in the EPL first. Leicester are now sitting comfortably in the table at 36 points and in 11th place. They are only eight points away from relegation so they will need to get any points they can. Crystal Palace can leapfrog them with a win in this match, so this one carries some importance here. Palace are the hotter squad with their most recent defeat of Arsenal thanks to goals from Townsend, Cabaye, and a penalty from Milivojevic. This match will be a tough one for both these teams and will likely be hard fought which makes for potential for some fantasy goodness especially since both teams tend to feature in some high scoring affairs.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Andros Townsend, $6100 FD, $8000 DK – I was torn between picking Townsend and Zaha as my primary targets to go along with Benteke, but I ended up going with both and moving Benteke to a secondary target on this team. Townsend has been great recently and has provided the team with plenty of offense as well as played solid midfield football. He did pick up a heel injury in the last match and while it appears that he’ll be good to go, it might be wise to be cognizant of injuries since you won’t want to be stuck with him if he doesn’t get the start.

Wilfried Zaha, $7100 FD, $7900 DK – Zaha is one of those players that goes in and out of being a cash play for DFS purposes. The reason that Zaha is so useful on this team is because of his ability to go out wide and deliver crosses into the box with his teammates in there waiting to take advantage of it. This team has developed a dependency on him and with them facing a resurgent Leicester team, they’ll look for their guys like Zaha and Townsend to help them win this game. Zaha has double digit points on DK in his last five matches that makes him an ideal fantasy candidate.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Christian Benteke, $8100 FD, $6400 DK – Benteke is a GPP option since he has a low floor and a high ceiling. On the season he has scored 16 goals including two goals in his last three games. He’ll take his chances when given to him, and he’s priced cheap enough that he’s going to have a good chance at delivering a positive return.

Luka Milivojevic, $5400 FD, $3400 DK – Milivojevic comes up as an option because of his penalty kick duties which increases his chances at scoring goals dramatically. Otherwise, he’s a defensive midfielder that may not venture forward a lot and thus has a low floor on DK. Likewise, on FanDuel, his floor should stay low in this one because Crystal Palace should control possession and thus limit the defensive possessions that afford him the opportunities for fantasy points

Leicester Top Plays

Marc Albrighton, $6300 FD, $7300 DK – When Leicester play, they have a limited fantasy upside outside of goals. The one exception to this is Albrighton who takes corners, creates chances, and is generally an all-around fantasy solid performer. On FanDuel, he has 20+ fantasy points in four of his last five matches and prior to the match against Atletico Madrid, he had double digits on DK in the previous six matches.

Leicester Secondary Plays

Riyad Mahrez, $8700 FD, $8300 DK – Mahrez is a solid GPP option as he takes penalties for this team and tends to step up his game when it’s needed the most. He’s cheap on both sites for his potential, and while he hasn’t reached that potential too often, he still carries the upside and somewhat of a decent floor because of the matchup.

Watford vs Swansea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Watford						Swansea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				154						211
				D L L W W L						W L L D L L
				10-7-14						8-4-20
11.00	3.74	14.23	8.16	18.32	23.13	10.84	3.72	13.91	8.75	22.78	18.91
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney		Holebas		Watson, Capoue, Holebas		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson, Routledge

Watford have switched to an almost exclusive 4-5-1 formation or in some cases they start out in a 4-4-2 and their striker has been switching between Deeney and Okaka. They have seen some varied success with this strategy including wins at home against Sunderland and West Brom. These matches are probably the closest “comps” to the Swansea matchup that we’re facing and likely the same strategy will be employed by their manager, Walter Mazzarri, on Saturday. In their previous set of matches, Watford have looked rather average, but they’ve managed to come away with wins in the aforementioned matches against West Brom and Sunderland. They followed that streak with a 4-0 loss to Tottenham on the road. Of course, Swansea are not as strong an opponent, so the challenge here is different.

Swansea do come with their struggles. Their only points in the last five matches have come from a 0-0 draw with Middlesbrough. Other than that, in their last five matches they’ve managed to be outscored by a margin of 8-2. The offense has sputtered after some initial positive results following the firing of Bob Bradley. Nevertheless, the team now finds themselves in relegation position and matches such as this one will prove vital in their quest to stay on top for next season.”

Watford Top Plays

M’Baye Niang, $7800 FD, $6000 DK – Niang has played superbly for this team since his addition to the roster. He has two goals and two assists in just nine matches. He’s added crosses and chances created for his team, and according to whoscored he’s been the highest rated player on his team for this previous duration. He’s filling in the production that is lacking with the departure of Ighalo to China and the injury to Zarate, making him a valid fantasy candidate.

Jose Holebas, $6200 FD, $5200 DK – There haven’t been a lot of defenders that we want to target this week. Holebas is one of those few that provides some offensive returns as he tends to venture forward and provide crosses for his teammates. These often result in chances for the team and thus can be useful in both FanDuel and DraftKings. Holebas does not come cheap, but he’s a player that might end up being reliable in this matchup with the Swans.

Watford Secondary Plays

Troy Deeney, $8100 FD, $5900 DK – If Deeney gets the start as the striker then he’s worth considering because of his experience and ability to get goals for this team. Of course, if he doesn’t start and the team opts to go with Okaka in his place, then Okaka makes for a fine pick as well. In their last few matches they’ve both managed to score goals (Deeney 1G and 1A against West Brom, Okaka 1G against Southampton), making them both good options for your teams.

Swansea Top Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, $8600 FD, $10200 DK – I can’t possibly go through a Swansea squad breakdown and not mention Gylfi Sigurdsson. He’s priced high, but he’s one of those few players in the league that can still have a high floor just off of crosses and peripherals. He’s in a good spot to deliver here as well as Swansea will try to break through this game and return home with some points making Sigurdsson a possible wild card in fantasy this week.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Alfie Mawson, $6100 FD, $3400 DK – On FanDuel, we like to target defenders who might face a lot of challenges and have to work to stop the ball a few times. In this case, Alfie Mawson is one of these defenders as the central defender for the Swans. He’s likely to face plenty of chances for clearances, tackles, interceptions and blocked shots. Mawson has had a high floor recently, and that should continue in this matchup this week.

Southampton vs Manchester City

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Southampton						Manchester City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				353						-122
				W W L D W W						W D D D L W
				11-7-12						18-7-6
15.17	4.93	10.93	6.60	25.60	17.37	15.97	5.19	8.23	4.94	20.87	13.81
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Austin, Tadic, Bertrand, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Van Dijk		Ward-Prowse, Tadic, Davis, Bertrand

When Southampton host Manchester City in the late game on Saturday, they’re going to be putting the test on Pep Guardiola’s men once again. This City team has been challenged lately and they’ve found themselves facing some tough matches where they’ve failed to win in four of their last six including a 2-1 loss to Chelsea and a 0-0 draw at home to Stoke. Southampton on the other hand have won four of their last six and are sitting in 9th place with hopes of moving up a little in the table before the season wraps up in a few weeks. This match could feature plenty of goals, with Southampton being a home underdog and Manchester City currently sitting in 4th place. There is reason to think that City will try to attack, while Southampton will try to force them into awkward defensive stances and take advantage of their mistakes at the back. Both teams have some notable fantasy players that will be popular and with the game being the late game, it could act as the late-game-hammer that propels you to the top of the leaderboard if you fit the players in with the right combinations.

Southampton Top Plays

Dusan Tadic, $7000 FD, $6300 DK – Tadic had a good game last time out, where he took four shots and delivered an assist on the only goal scored by the team. Tadic has been playing well in April and while he hasn’t scored for the Saints since early March, he has come close a few times and could come through in this match.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Manolo Gabbiadini, $7900 FD, $7400 DK – Gabbiadini might be back this week after missing a few matches due to injury. If he does return, he’s shown a knack for jumping right into the action and picking up goals where it counts. We all remember his performance with Southampton in the EFL cup final against the other Manchester team where he scored two and almost had a third. Expect him to play well if he does start. If he misses this match as well, then taking Shane Long would not be the wrong choice if you believe that Southampton can make some noise in this matchup with City.

Manchester City Top Plays

Sergio Aguero, $12200 FD, $10100 DK – Aguero scored last time out for City making it three games in a row with a score. He’s doing his best to prove to Guardiola that he deserves the job as the lead striker despite Gabriel Jesus hanging out in the training room recovering from injury. With Jesus almost back, Aguero’s spot is in jeopardy. He’s shown some focus in recent weeks and I think it continues in this one.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

David Silva, $8900 FD, $7300 DK – While Silva didn’t really deliver on his expected positive matchup last time out, I’m going back to the well this time. He had three straight matches with positive performances prior to that Hull match, and while he played well, he didn’t deliver any fantasy results worthy of his selection. In this one with the game expected to be more competitive, look for Silva to step his game up and be the maestro in the midfield.