EPL Grind Down: Week 34

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-04-22 15:48:02

We have a short week this week with just four matches set for Saturday. But we’re still here with the Grind Down breaking down the matchups for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The matchups this week feature a good number of the smaller teams, which means some bad defense and some bad offense are in store for us, though we have one team (Everton) that is capable of scoring 4+ goals in any matchup. There shouldn’t be much in the way of salary problems this week as there aren’t a lot of super expensive players to pick from, which should allow for some flexible roster construction. Overall, watch out for team motivations when building your lineups. The players I listed as strong plays are merely suggestions, but I feel very confident in my game flow predictions.

If you’ve got any questions or comments feel free to reach out to me on Twitter.

Hull vs Watford

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Hull						Watford
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-110						337
				W L W W L L						L L W W L W
				8-6-19						11-7-14
10.45	3.24	17.21	10.24	19.18	23.67	11.13	3.84	14.19	8.19	18.19	23.16
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hernandez, Huddlestone		Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro		Huddlestone, Grosicki, Evandro		Deeney		Holebas		Watson, Capoue, Holebas

When the bottom nine teams all either lost or walked away with a draw last week, we ended up with an even tighter race to avoid a relegation spot. Hull was fortunate enough that their 3-1 loss to Stoke did not affect their league standing as they still sit at 30 points, and just two points out of the relegation spot. This week they play host to a Watford team that appears to be trending towards safety in the league standings and that would ultimately lead to different priorities in these games leading up to the end of the season. Watford will likely look to secure at least a point if not all three being on the road to one of the teams they’d be trying to hold off. Also worth considering is that this will be the last “easy” match for Watford before the season is over. Their upcoming schedule has them finishing the season playing the following teams in order: Liverpool (H), Leicester (A), Everton (A), Chelsea (A), Manchester City (H). That puts this Hull match as an almost must win as they could conceivably finish the season off with zero points from their last five, locking them in at 43 points if they get the win (15 points from safety if Swansea lose to Stoke at home). Either way, this scheduling quirk means that Watford will likely go at this match hard to get a much needed away win.

On the other side of the ball, Hull will not go down easy. They’ve played better ball recently and despite their overall weak record, they’ve performed admirably at home with the third best record in the last six home matches. These matches included wins over Bournemouth, Liverpool, Swansea, West Ham, and Middlesbrough, as well as a draw with Burnley. This match will look to feature plenty of offense as Hull have scored 14 goals in their last six home games, while Watford have allowed 12 goals in their last six away games. Watford did only score four goals in those matchups though those were against Arsenal (2-1 Win), Manchester United, and Tottenham, among others. The expectation is that both teams will attack and try to score goals early and come away with all three points.

Hull Top Plays

Oumar Niasse, $7300 FD, $5100 DK – He’s been the first choice striker and with an active midfield, Niasse should get some opportunities in front of the goal that could lead to shots on target and potentially some goals.

Kamil Grosicki, $5700 FD, $7200 DK – With the team looking to secure some points in this one as they see an opportunity to get all three points, the team will look to get the offense going and that will start with the wings and the midfield possession. One of the better performers in recent weeks has been Kamil Grosicki as he’s been very involved in the team’s offense. In the last four game weeks he’s had 167 total touches with 103 of them coming in the opponent’s half and 92 in the final third, including 20 in the penalty area. This increased activity is why Grosicki is the top midfield target for DFS purposes if you choose to target Hull.

Hull Secondary Plays

Lazar Markovic, $5600 FD, $4000 DK – The cheaper option of the two wingers is Markovic, who might be worth considering given the pricing of the other options and the chances of him also contributing to a goal or by way of the team’s attack.

Watford Top Plays

Troy Deeney, $8200 FD, $5600 DK – There have not been any 20+ FD or 10+ DK fantasy players from any midfielders or forwards on this team in their last few matches except for those who scored goals. In that case, Deeney is the best scorer on this team though Niang is making a case for himself to share in the title. Both these players are potential options in tournaments, but nothing more.

Watford Secondary Plays

Jose Holebas, $6300 FD, $5400 DK – It’s hard to look at Holebas and recommend him every week because of his high price tag. However, he’s a very active part of the team and with his return in April the team has held three of their four opponents goal-less, which might be a trend worth considering when building your lineups.

Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Bournemouth						Middlesbrough
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-116						353
				W W D D L L						L L D L D L
				9-8-16						4-12-16
11.42	3.94	14.64	8.88	17.06	20.70	9.41	2.47	13.75	8.75	20.00	22.38
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Wilson, Stanislas, King, Afobe, Daniels		Arter		Stanislas, Daniels, Arter, Pugh, Gradel		Negredo, Leadbitter		Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter		Ramirez, Downing, Leadbitter

In the same conversation of the relegation battle, this is a matchup between two teams battling the relegation demon. Bournemouth currently sit seven points away from the drop zone while Middlesbrough sit six points away from safety. Boro have struggled offensively this season with just 23 goals scored in 32 matches. They’ve played better defensively, having conceded just 39 goals in that same span placing them in the top six in terms of goals allowed. Unfortunately, without the ability to win games, they find themselves an unlikely team to survive the season. Over their last six matches we haven’t seen any improvement in their goal scoring as they’ve scored just four goals, but they’ve allowed 11 goals in that span showing a dip in their defensive performances. Moreover the team hasn’t had a win in 15 straight games, having lost or drawn in all their matches since before Christmas. In fact, away from the safety of their home field, they have not managed a win since their first away match, which happened to come against the only team below them in the standings.

So this begs the notion that Bournemouth should come away victorious in this one, and with the lapses in defensive abilities by this Boro team in recent weeks (their last away match saw them lose 4-2 to Hull), you can expect that Bournemouth will attack and attempt to put away their opponents early. This highlights their midfield and attacking options, and that’s where our focus will be.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Joshua King, $8600 FD, $6900 DK – While his price tag is roughly higher than I’d like, King might be the better play to consider out of this midfield in terms of safe options this weekend. This Bournemouth team will rely on quickness to break through the Middlesbrough back line. This equates to King being one of the main contributors to that attack that should see the team scoring some goals.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Junior Stanislas, $5600 FD, $6200 DK – Stanislas is back after a prolonged absence that should result in some fantasy output against a weak opponent. In his first game back he played 69 minutes against Tottenham and managed one shot and three crosses. Against Boro he should see himself possibly tripling that effort in a bid to instill himself back into the cash game lineups for us DFS players.

Middlesbrough Top Plays

Stewart Downing, $5200 FD, $6000 DK – Downing might be the closest thing to a cash game option on this team in the late stages of the season. He’s got 36 total crosses in April and eight chances created to go along with just a single assist. Part of the problem is that the team hasn’t been able to finish lately. However, with Negredo scoring a goal in two of his last three matches, that might be about to change. The matchup with Bournemouth is inviting as it could lead to at least one goal. And while I don’t expect Boro to walk away victorious from this one, they will get some chances despite playing on the road.

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

Alvaro Negredo, $6800 FD, $6000 DK – As previously mentioned, Negredo has two goals in three matches and could continue that streak to make it three in four this week. With eight total goals in the Premier League this season, Negredo has shown that while he is not an elite striker, he can be a serviceable player in a good system. That may not translate to a career in the top flight, but it does show his ability. Nevertheless, all that we care about today is whether he can put himself in a position to score, and I think this week should look up for him.

West Ham vs Everton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Ham						Everton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				240						120
				L L L L W D						W W L D W W
				10-7-16						16-9-8
13.18	3.48	13.24	9.00	20.06	19.24	13.33	5.15	11.67	6.73	19.64	20.39
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Noble, Carroll, Lanzini		Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell		Lanzini, Noble, Snodgrass, Cresswell,		Baines, Lukaku, Barkley, Mirallas		Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Lukaku, Valencia		Mirallas, Baines, Barkley

Everton are trying to break through into the top five of the league with just five matches remaining for the Toffees. Everton find themselves sitting tied in points with sixth place Arsenal and just three points behind fifth place Manchester United. Despite both those teams having two games to play, Everton should feel good about their chances at coming away with a shot at fifth place if they take care of business as three of their five next opponents sit below them in the table, including this week’s West Ham.

West Ham are not quite out of the water yet. They failed to defeat a weak Sunderland squad and walked away with a 2-2 draw last time out, a result that kept them from drifting away from the relegation zone. As of now, the team needs some luck and cooperation from their opponents in order to finish outside the relegation zone as their next five opponents include Tottenham, Liverpool, and Burnley AT Burnley. Not to mention this week’s matchup with the Toffees. West Ham have struggled to maintain clean sheets (just one since the new year against the somewhat hapless Swansea), and this week going against Everton, who are the second best scoring team in their last six matches. This does not bode well for the Hammers’ defenses.

West Ham Top Plays

Manuel Lanzini, $7500 FD, $6600 DK – Lanzini is a better play on FanDuel than on DraftKings because of his ability to deliver passes and create chances for his teammates. While the team hasn’t been very successful at converting these chances into goals lately, he’s still a valuable part of their team. I wouldn’t go heavy on this West Ham team however as it’s hard to know where the points would come from in this matchup where they may not look that strong.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Darren Randolph, $6200 FD, $4300 DK – Facing Everton at home should be a good chance for Randolph to get some shots against him, which could result in saves galore. Last match for Everton they had 29 shots with seven of them on target. This week, the defense isn’t as strong as Burnley was last week and maybe more of those shots will end up on target giving Randolph more potential saves to make to boost his fantasy output.

Everton Top Plays

Romelu Lukaku, $12500 FD, $11400 DK – He will be the top owned forward on the slate because of the lack of high end options and because of the matchup. And frankly, there is no reason to pass on him in this matchup with the form that he’s been in lately. He leads the Premier League in goals with 24 and has three goals in his last two matches. No brainer.

Kevin Mirallas, $6800 FD, $7900 DK – Mirallas is another expensive option here, especially on DraftKings where he’s the fourth highest priced option. However, on FanDuel, he wasn’t nearly as high on the list. Regardless, last week he had a shot hit the crossbar and had six shots in total as part of the team’s offense. It’s only a matter of time until some of these shots are converted to goals.

Swansea vs Stoke

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Swansea						Stoke
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				117						261
				L L D L L L						D L L L L W
				8-4-21						10-9-14
10.91	3.73	13.94	8.64	22.82	18.76	10.88	3.48	14.61	8.48	18.48	20.21
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson		Sigurdsson, Routledge		Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic		Allen, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, Arnautovic.

The final match for the Saturday slate features Swansea hosting Stoke city. When Stoke travels to Wales this week, they come in needing just four points in their remaining five matches to guarantee safety and “cruising” into the summer. Swansea, however, are sitting in relegation zone right this minute and need every point they can muster in order to avoid playing in the Championship next season. What Swansea have done in recent weeks does not invite a lot of confidence in their ability to walk away from this season with a ticket to compete once again at the highest level in 2018. Instead, over their last six weeks, they have just one point and scored just two goals while conceding nine goals for a -7 goal differential. Their losses came against weaker opponents as well including Hull, Watford, West Ham and Bournemouth. Their lone draw in their last six was a 0-0 draw with Middlesbrough that may have doomed both teams to meet again next season.

The opponent, Stoke, have less incentive to play hard in this one as they are close to securing a top 16 spot and are no longer in contention for a European spot. Right now, their manager will likely be looking to next season and trying out some of the players that haven’t gotten a lot of minutes or game time to give them EPL experience heading into the summer. That doesn’t mean the team will throw things away, but it does mean that it will be harder to predict the team’s makeup week in and week out, not to mention the change in formation that has accompanied them with the fluctuation from a 4-4-2 to a 3-4-2-1.

Swansea Top Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, $9200 FD, $11000 DK – The team is desperate, and while they’ve been desperate for a while, Gylfi has been slipping in his overall performances in terms of effectiveness. He hasn’t scored a goal since a run of three straight games with goals bridging January and February. And he hasn’t assisted on a goal since March 11th when he closed a streak of five games with an assist in each one. A matchup against Stoke at home should help him open his April scoring account.

Swansea Secondary Plays

Lukasz Fabianski, $6600 FD, $5200 DK – The home keeper is always worth considering, but it’s tougher to point to one in a matchup where the team is slightly favored. Although, in this case because of the level that Swansea have been playing at lately, it’s not hard to imagine that Fabianski will face at least four-to-six shots on target that could result in some saves. If the team gets the clean sheet and win (that is sorely needed), then Fabianski gets an even bigger boost that could potentially make him the highest scoring goalkeeper on the slate.

Stoke Top Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, $6300 FD, $7700 DK – Shaq should get the start, but don’t expect him to get another goal as his goals tend to come from far out and from almost impossible situations. He does have two assists in his last two games. He can continue delivering in chances created and even shots that would help his floor and raise it for the purposes of this matchup and our DFS use of him.