EPL Grind Down Week Three - Page 2

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2016-08-27 13:48:12

Southampton vs Sunderland

Southampton						Sunderland
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.628						6.52
				DL						LL
				0-1-1						0-0-2
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
18.50	3.50	8.50	4.00	27.00	16.50	12.50	4.00	12.00	5.50	20.50	15.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Tadic, Bertrand, Rodriguez, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Van Dijk		Ward-Prowse, Tadic,  Davis, Bertrand		Borini, Defoe, Watmore		Khazri,		Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt, Lens, Borini

Southampton didn’t play in the midweek, so they’re fresh for the matchup with Sunderland. They are coming off a 2-0 loss to Manchester United and will be looking to secure their first win of the new campaign when Sunderland come to town. Sunderland on the other hand have two losses in two, and notched their first season win in the EFL Cup against League 1 side Shrewsbury Town with a 1-0 score. This should be a match wholly dominated by the home team and Sunderland should have trouble gaining possession in this one.

Southampton Breakdown

As mentioned above, they are highly favored in a match that they should dominate possession. This team plays with a midfield diamond with Tadic, Hojbjerg, Davis, and Romeu filling it up. Tadic is the most beneficiary of that diamond shape as it affords him the freedom of movement and keeps him from having to support too much on defense. The 4-4-2 the team plays also puts a lot of emphasis on the full backs to deliver and perform offensive duties while maintaining their defensive positioning. Be on the lookout for some cheap full backs on this team as the season progresses.

Southampton Top Plays

Dusan Tadic, Midfielder, $7,700 – One of the top players on this team and one of the top options at midfield this week is Tadic. Those who watch the game logs will probably avoid him as he had a weak showing against Manchester United, however, that was a tough matchup and he didn’t see many touches. This week he should see double digit crosses and probably 2-5 shots. The upside is tremendous this week with his relatively low price tag, it’s tough to avoid him.

Nathan Redmond, Midfielder/Forward, $5,900 – He’s starting alongside Shane Long at the other forward spot for the Saints. He’s probably going to be highly owned with him in such a good spot and at such a low price. Of course, it’s tough to predict ownership, but Redmond is a relatively known commodity and when lineups come out, and people see him at the front of the attack against a weak team, they’re going to put him in their lineups. And they won’t be wrong.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Fraser Forster, Goalkeeper, $5,500 – He’s got some terrible game logs so far, but he’s going to be one of the safest keepers this week with Sunderland not expected to be very good offensively. (though, Defoe will probably make me regret saying that). Taking any expensive favorite keeper is a risk, however, Forster is probably the one I would take if I were to go that route with my keeper.

Sunderland Breakdown

The team that barely escaped relegation last season gets to stumble through another season of Premier League action. Sunderland are huge underdogs here, and likely will continue to be big underdogs in most of their matches. They are winless so far, and it will take a miracle to see them finish in the top 16 of the league this year. That said, this match should be interesting as they have some skilled players in Januzaj and Defoe and Khazri, however, they are not a good executing team, and struggle to finish at times.

Sunderland Top Plays

None

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Adnan Januzaj, Midfielder, $7,400 – He’s playing for his former manager in David Moyes, and is relishing the role. He had 9 crosses last matchup and is so far excelling as he tries to lead his new team to some wins. They will struggle this season, but Januzaj could end up being a popular DFS option every week if we can guarantee the crosses and shots that he’s shown early on.

Watford vs Arsenal

Watford						Arsenal
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				5.4						1.751
				DL						LD
				0-1-1						0-1-1
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
5.50	1.50	18.50	8.50	14.00	28.00	11.00	4.50	12.00	7.50	20.00	13.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney, Ighalo		Abdi		Watson, Abdi, Capoue, Holebas		Walcott, Cazorla,  Sanchez		Sanchez, Cazorla, Chambers, Walcott		Cazorla, Sanchez, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain

Watford are coming off a heartbreak loss to Chelsea last week, they followed it up by another loss in the EFL Cup to League 1 side, Gillingham. In the meantime, they now get to see Arsenal at home in what doesn’t look like a promising match to the home team. Arsenal on the other hand have had a rough go at it to start the season with an exciting 3-4 loss to Liverpool followed by a 0-0 draw with the defending champs. This one should be all Arsenal with the occasional foray from Deeney and Ighalo for Watford, but I believe the Gunners will prove to be too much for the home side.

Watford Breakdown

They have signed a bunch of full backs, and play a 3-5-2 formation with the full backs advanced as midfielders. This week I think they end up starting new signing Daryl Janmaat on one side and Jose Holebas on the other. Deeney and Ighalo continue to lead the line with Gomes defending between the sticks.

Watford Top Plays

Huerlho Gomes, Goalkeeper, $4,700 – I’m following a simple rule every week for my main tournament lineups. “Take a cheaphome underdog goalkeeper regardless of matchup”. Now, this seems a bit crazy, but ultimately, teams play better at home in front of their own crowds, and when a team is an underdog, they see plenty of shots coming their way. Gomes should see close to 5 shots on target this matchup and if he manages to make 3 saves he’s already scored at least 2 points, and in the off chance that his team wins, he would have 7 points from the keeper. That’s not bad for almost 1K cheaper than the top option.

Watford Secondary Plays

None

Arsenal Breakdown

They’re struggling to get their bearings. Some are blaming Arsene Wenger for not getting the right players in the transfer window. Personally, I think the team could perform better, but also, their defense has been suspect as evidenced by them surrendering 4 goals to Liverpool in week 1. They are playing the traditional 4-2-3-1 with Giroud leading the line. Sanchez, Walcott and Ozil right behind him and Bellerin and Monreal as the full backs.

Arsenal Top Plays

Olivier Giroud, Forward, $7,600 – If he gets the start over Walcott, then he’s a viable option, of course, he should not be on your rosters if you target Gomes as your keeper. But Giroud is out to prove to the Gunners faithful that he is worth sticking with as a top forward in the league. The team is looking to get some wins to start the season and Giroud will be looking to benefit from the creativity of Alexis and Ozil behind him.

Arsenal Secondary Plays

None

Hull vs Manchester United

Hull						Manchester United
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				7.65						1.502
				WW						WW
				2-0-0						2-0-0
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
13.00	4.50	20.50	9.50	9.50	25.00	11.50	6.00	11.00	7.00	12.50	23.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hernandez, Snodgrass		Snodgrass		Snodgrass, Huddlestone

Our last match of the Saturday slate features the surprising Hull City playing host to Manchester United. Having already disposed of the defending champs, Leicester and Swansea in consecutive weeks, Hull look to hand Jose Mourinho his first defeat of the season. Mourinho and United however, are bringing a particularly slow brand of football that values possession and slowly breaks down the opponent, similar to his teams at Chelsea. Hull are still struggling to field a full squad with all the turmoil in the front office and the injuries they sustained to start the season, and any result out of this match will be good enough, so I can see the Tigers going after United without fear.

Hull Top Plays

None

Hull Secondary Plays

Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $6,500 – He’s had an excellent match to start the season in which he exploited the midfield of the opponent and shown that he has tremendous skill. However, he failed to repeat that feat against Swansea and ended with just 5 fantasy points after scoring 30 in the opening weekend. There is a chance he can pull off a good showing against United this weekend, but it’s a long shot, which is why he’s just a secondary option here.

Manchester United Top Plays

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Forward, $9,600 – He’s similar to the likes of Ronaldo and Messi in that you never know when he will score a goal and he can completely take over a match on his own. This means that he’s always a viable option every week. That said, he’s very expensive and requires some creative roster building with some sacrifices. Is he worth rostering? I think so, he might be 50% owned in cash games and if he scores a goal, you’re already chasing.

Manchester United Secondary Plays

Juan Mata, Midfielder, $6,600 – He’s been the top crosser for this team as the corner kick taker so far this season. He’s a secondary option however because he is on thin ice with Jose Mourinho and may not finish the full 90 minutes. If he doesn’t start, then Mkhitaryan is a good option but he’s much more expensive and doesn’t carry any more upside than Mata.