EPL Picks: Boxing Day Edition
It’s a Christmas Thursday here at RotoGrinders and we’re celebrating a full day of family, friends and loved ones. I hope you’re all enjoying your NBA sweats as you begin your research for tomorrow’s early morning Soccer boxing day slate over on DraftKings.
This slate is the biggest we’ve had in a while, and DraftKings has decided to reward us accordingly. They’ve given us a big $27 tournament with a $25,000 guaranteed prize pool (GPP) that is sure to attract some casual attention to it. After all, after a full day of family fun, nothing beats some early morning soccer to put you in the mood for some more family time. A few things of note for this EPL slate, the early game with Chelsea-West Ham is not included, so those west coasters don’t have to worry about getting up at 3AM to check starting XI’s. Also, there are several teams that have injuries, so as always, be sure to follow along on twitter as the lineups get released to make sure you include players that will be playing on their teams.
Be sure to follow me on twitter @ DFS_Hambazaza and I’ll do my best to give you the latest information and answer any questions you may have. Here are the picks!
Goalkeepers:
Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea $5,100 Fabianski has been one of the better goalkeepers in the EPL on the season. This has been evident in his performance so far that has featured seven clean sheets in 17 matches. Fabianski might be one of the biggest favorites for both bonuses today, however, he’s facing a team in Aston Villa that does not take a lot of shots (47 shots on target, 6.7% conversion rate) This will temper my usage of Fabianski as he has limited upside, however he’s a safe bet.
Joe Hart, Manchester City $5,300 Manchester City are a big favorite in this match but are on the road this match against an overpowered West Brom Albion. WBA are not a threat offensively, however, with Manchester City missing the majority of their offensive weapons and having to resort to James Milner as a false nine, I don’t trust Hart to get the Win bonus as the game could easily end in a draw. Hart is a definite option in GPPs however as most will venture to the players around him in that price range.
Wojciech Szczesny, Arsenal $5,200 When I mentioned that most would stay away from Hart, Szczesny and Arsenal were the team I had in mind. Arsenal are a huge favorite in this matchup and facing a team in QPR that has not had much success on the road. In their last 6 road matches, QPR have only managed to score 2 goals, and while Charlie Austin is coming off the heels of a monster game last weekend, I expect that QPR will play a defensive game that will limit Austin’s touches up front and thus lowering his value. However, given that he is fast becoming one of the best strikers in the league, Arsenal’s back line might be forced to make a save or two which increases the potential value in Szczesny.
Other Keepers I Like: David De Gea (Manchester United), Bradley Jones (Liverpool), Costel Pantilimon (Sunderland)
Defenders:
Leighton Baines, Everton $5,500 Anytime that Everton is on the board and playing at home Baines becomes one of my top defenders on the day. Baines is the main free kick taker and penalty kick taker for Everton, and while the game should feature several goals on both sides, Baines’ value lies in his ability to deliver crosses, take shots and be involved in the offense. He has the highest floor of any defender and also has a high ceiling thanks to his goal scoring ability. Be forewarned however, that he has not shown that high ceiling since getting injured a few games back. He still carries the potential and is worth rostering in a GPP roster.
Kieran Trippier, Burnley $4,600 Not quite as expensive as Baines, but similar floor and upside. Trippier only has one assist on the season however, the numbers indicate that he is due for a jump in that number as he has 19 chances created on the season to go along with 111 crosses. Moreover, he has accumulated 394 touches in the final third that puts him second only to Baines. Burnley are not expected to win this match as Liverpool are currently favorites according to the odds makers in England. However, I expect Trippier to exceed value regardless of the final score of this game based off opportunities in the offense alone.
Pablo Zabaleta, Manchester City $4,800 When looking at Manchester City and their prospects, they are an uncertain team to peg at this moment. With so many injuries, it is almost impossible to determine if the team will be able to break through on offense or not. However, their defense and goalkeeper have been stable recently as Zabaleta has double digit scoring in three of the last four matches and faces a team that isn’t known for their offense or their defense. Zabaleta has the potential to earn the Clean Sheet bonus, as well as deliver on the offensive end.
Daryl Janmaat, Newcastle United $3,700 In a game against Manchester United, Janmaat will go overlooked as many will peg United to score multiple goals. What is worth noting when it comes to Janmaat is that he is heavily involved in the team’s offense and that if Newcastle were to break through, there is a better than average chance that Janmaat is involved in some form or fashion. He makes for an excellent GPP target.
Other Defenders I Like: Kieran Gibbs (Arsenal), Nathanial Clyne (Southampton), Seamus Coleman (Everton), Ben Davies (Tottenham)
Midfielders
Yannick Bolasie, Crystal Palace $5,900 A superb midfield option for not a lot of salary. Bolasie accumulates his value from crosses and shots on target. He rarely secures the assist or the goal, however, he is capable of both as he has 24 chances created with only 3 assists netted from them. The expectation is about one assist for every 4-5 chances created and thus he’s a little behind the league average. Bolasie is facing a Southampton side that has not been good away from home in the last few weeks after losses to the likes of Burnley, Sheffield United (League Cup), and Arsenal. I like Crystal Palace to get a goal or two this week, or at least to put pressure on the Saints to try to impress the home fans.
Christian Eriksen, Tottenham $8,400 With Tottenham currently sitting in 7th place in the Premiership and facing a porous defense such as Leicester City, I expect Eriksen to put some points on the fantasy board. Between shots, fouls drawn and crosses, Eriksen won’t need to score or assist to make an impact in this game. However, I expect him to be involved in any Tottenham score this weekend.
Raheem Sterling, Liverpool $8,800 Sterling has been playing up front for this Liverpool team with Balotelli out of the lineup. However, with Balotelli back, its hard to know where Sterling will play. If Balotelli doesn’t start, then Sterling will be the main striker. I still like Sterling even if Balotelli is in the lineup as he can be very active in the midfield and reach value regardless of his position on the field.
Angel Di Maria, Manchester United $11,900 The price is formidable, and he is just now coming back from injury from a few weeks back. However, he does have a decent chance at delivering value given that Manchester United is expected to attack and win this match. With the expectation that Di Maria will start this game and push Rooney forward, both players should see plenty of opportunities and Di Maria will want to get back in form for this match. He makes a great GPP play.
David Silva, Manchester City $8,500 A City team devoid of any true strikers means that several midfielders are taking turns attempting to fill the gap. My favorite of the bunch is David Silva as he is the most talented and the most opportunistic of the midfielders. Without a true striker it is very tough to peg which midfielders will be the ones to break through, however, I like Silva as a favorite today.
Other Midfielders I Like: Dusan Tadic (Southampton), Yaya Toure (Manchester City), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Swansea), Adam Johnson (Sunderland), Steven Gerard (Liverpool), James Milner (Manchester City), Ashley Young (Manchester United), Wilson Palacios (Stoke)
Forwards
Wilfried Bony, Swansea $9,800 There was a point mid season that I took Bony and Sigurdsson together in at least one lineup and the upside was tremendous. I think today is another day that both can prove to be great picks today. Bony has been on an especially good tear lately as he has scored in double digits in every game he has started in the last month. Bony makes for an excellent play in all formats.
Radamel Falcao, Manchester United $9,400 Falcao is the third head of the trident that is the Manchester United offense. With Di Maria looking to come back in this matchup, I Expect that Falcao gets some extra opportunities created by ADM. Also, given that Manchester United has to turn around and play again in short order, I would not be surprised if RVP is rested this matchup to get him ready for the trip to White Hart Lane this weekend.
Graziano Pelle, Southampton $9,000 Southampton has been one of the better offenses in the Premier league so far and that is in thanks to the tremendous work of Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle as a tandem that has proven to be successful for several matches this season. Pelle comes into this match at his lowest price since Halloween and he is heating up as he has scored two goals in his last three matches. Pelle makes a great play today as he strives on confidence and would be expected to score on Boxing day.
Danny Ings, Burnley $6,300 With Burnley playing at home I like Ings to break through this week and come out of his offensive funk in which he has not scored a goal in his last four appearances. However, this Liverpool squad is a great team to get going against as they have conceded 24 goals this season which puts them in the bottom half of the teams. Ings plays an aggressive style and as a lone forward he has the opportunities to get on goal and collect some valuable fantasy points. Also, for his reduced price, he will be necessary in order to roster other high priced forwards.
Olivier Giroud, Arsenal $8,900 Arsenal are the biggest favorite on the board today, and since Giroud has returned from injury he has been on fire. In his last two matches he scored three goals and will look to continue that streak this week for the streaking Gunners.
Other Forwards I Like: Robin Van Persie (Manchester United), Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Christian Benteke (Aston Villa), Romelu Lukaku (Everton), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal), Charlie Austin (QPR), Bojan Krkic (Stoke)