EPL Scoring Changes and Top Plays: October 31st

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2015-11-03 19:05:36

This week DraftKings released their new fantasy soccer scoring setup, which can be found here. And while these changes have received a mixed response, I believe that they will overall dramatically improve the quality of the game that we love to play.

Perusing through that list of changes, you’ll see a number of eye-popping differences that will surely change the experience for DFS soccer players for the better. And while it may take time to adjust to these changes, I believe that over time they will have the added benefit of attracting more fantasy soccer players worldwide when DK opens their doors up in the UK and beyond.

The most important changes are as follows:

Pastedimageat2015_10_2902_15PM

Roster change from 8 to 11 players – This along with two flex spots allows for lots of variability in lineups and formation. You are required to roster a goalkeeper, three defenders, three midfielders and two forwards along with 2 utility spots.

Pastedimageat2015_10_2902_16PM

Scoring additions – DraftKings added some new scoring options with Interceptions, Tackles won and fouls committed being added. See the image below for the full list of scoring changes.

Stat provider switch to OPTA – By far the most important update is the change of the statistics provider from STATs INC. to OPTA Sports for soccer stats. OPTA is the leader in fantasy soccer stats around the world and has partnered with several leagues to provide top of the line stats. The other positive aspect of the switch to OPTA is the wide availability of stats in several sources, as well as OPTA’s standard definitions of the different stats that DK will use.

So how does this affect our players and our stats? At first glance, we’ll have to dig in a little deeper in order to find enough players to fill out our rosters, however, upon further examination, it looks as though our top players will still be at or near the top of the standings. The table below shows all EPL players this season with the new stats included in there. It also shows DK points in both the old scoring and the new scoring along with the difference between the two. Note, however, that this doesn’t include any clean sheet or single-goal game bonuses for the defenders and goalkeepers. Those will undoubtedly change some stats. This table also only includes our top 100 players on the season. Also, it is worth noting that this table is the average per game for each position and not the total season stats.

Player Name	Team	Appearances	Tackles	Interceptions	Fouls Won	Fouls Conceded	Points Old Scoring	Points New Scoring	Difference
Payet	WHM	10	0.70	1.20	2.00	0.50	19.20	22.25	3.05
De Bruyne	MCI	6	1.17	1.00	1.83	0.83	18.17	21.25	3.08
Mahrez	LEI	9	0.67	1.11	2.56	0.22	17.56	21.22	3.67
Vardy	LEI	10	1.30	0.60	1.90	1.00	18.10	21.10	3.00
Silva	MCI	5	1.00	0.60	3.20	1.20	16.60	20.50	3.90
Cabaye	CPL	10	3.40	3.70	2.90	1.30	11.30	18.80	7.50
Barkley	EVE	10	0.40	0.50	4.00	1.20	14.10	18.15	4.05
Sánchez (Alexis)	ARS	10	1.20	0.90	3.60	1.20	13.40	18.05	4.65
Tadic	SOT	9	1.00	1.00	1.67	0.56	15.00	17.89	2.89
Brady	NOR	10	2.90	1.70	1.90	1.30	12.70	17.70	5.00
Eriksen	TOT	7	1.43	0.71	0.71	0.14	14.43	16.86	2.43
Ritchie	BOU	10	1.50	1.30	3.00	1.60	12.50	16.85	4.35
Mane	SOT	10	1.20	0.80	4.60	1.70	11.30	16.65	5.35
Aguero	MCI	8	0.13	0.13	1.88	0.75	14.50	16.19	1.69
Lens	SUN	9	2.11	0.44	4.00	2.00	10.44	15.78	5.33
Ozil	ARS	9	1.00	0.89	2.00	1.00	12.78	15.72	2.94
Albrighton	LEI	10	1.40	1.30	1.90	0.70	12.00	15.60	3.60
Milner	LIV	10	1.70	0.60	3.80	2.20	10.80	15.50	4.70
Sako	CPL	7	0.86	1.14	2.00	1.00	12.29	15.21	2.93
André Ayew	SWA	10	1.40	0.70	4.80	1.60	9.40	15.15	5.75
Pellè	SOT	10	0.40	0.40	1.90	0.80	12.60	14.70	2.10
Ighalo	WAT	10	1.00	0.20	2.90	1.10	10.40	13.85	3.45
Sturridge	LIV	3	0.33	0.00	1.00	0.33	12.67	13.83	1.17
Kane (Harry)	TOT	10	1.00	0.50	2.60	1.10	10.50	13.80	3.30
Wijnaldum	NEW	10	0.70	0.80	2.20	0.50	10.70	13.75	3.05
Pedro	CHE	7	1.71	1.00	3.00	1.29	9.14	13.71	4.57
Wilson (Callum)	BOU	7	0.43	0.29	3.57	1.57	10.29	13.64	3.36
Amavi	AVL	9	3.33	3.67	3.22	2.00	6.22	13.61	7.39
Depay	MUN	8	0.63	0.38	2.25	0.88	10.88	13.50	2.63
Cazorla	ARS	10	1.70	2.30	1.70	0.80	9.30	13.45	4.15
Son	TOT	3	1.67	1.33	1.67	0.67	9.67	13.33	3.67
Sterling	MCI	9	0.67	0.78	2.33	0.56	10.11	13.22	3.11
Redmond	NOR	10	0.70	0.30	1.90	1.10	11.00	13.20	2.20
Rose (Danny)	TOT	3	4.67	1.33	3.67	1.67	5.00	13.17	8.17
Coutinho	LIV	9	1.11	0.78	1.67	0.56	10.22	13.11	2.89
Lamela	TOT	9	1.56	0.89	3.22	2.33	8.78	12.83	4.06
Ayoze Pérez	NEW	8	1.00	1.13	3.00	1.00	8.75	12.81	4.06
Martial	MUN	6	0.33	0.33	3.00	0.83	9.67	12.75	3.08
Lukaku	EVE	10	0.30	0.00	1.60	0.80	11.00	12.50	1.50
Ramsey	ARS	9	2.00	1.78	3.78	1.44	6.44	12.39	5.94
Montero	SWA	9	0.78	0.33	2.78	0.78	9.00	12.33	3.33
Kouyaté	WHM	9	2.56	1.89	2.33	0.89	6.78	12.17	5.39
Morrison	WBA	7	1.57	2.43	1.43	0.43	8.14	12.14	4.00
Mata	MUN	10	0.90	1.00	0.80	0.40	10.10	12.10	2.00
Shelvey	SWA	10	0.80	1.70	1.10	0.70	9.60	12.00	2.40
Ward (Joel)	CPL	4	2.00	0.50	2.00	1.00	8.25	12.00	3.75
Mame Biram Diouf	STO	7	0.71	0.29	2.86	0.86	8.43	11.71	3.29
Gradel	BOU	4	2.00	0.25	3.00	0.50	6.75	11.63	4.88
Henderson	LIV	2	2.00	2.00	2.00	1.00	7.00	11.50	4.50
Navas	MCI	10	0.70	0.40	1.00	0.20	9.60	11.40	1.80
Giroud	ARS	10	0.70	0.20	1.10	0.80	9.90	11.40	1.50
Kolarov	MCI	9	0.67	1.56	2.22	0.78	8.11	11.39	3.28
Y Touré	MCI	9	1.00	0.56	2.00	1.22	8.67	11.33	2.67
Puncheon	CPL	10	1.50	1.20	2.40	1.00	7.30	11.30	4.00
Gueye	AVL	8	3.25	3.63	5.50	2.88	2.13	11.25	9.13
Willian	CHE	9	1.00	0.44	2.56	0.89	7.89	11.22	3.33
Janmaat	NEW	9	1.78	1.89	1.44	1.22	7.56	11.11	3.56
M’Vila	SUN	9	2.44	2.33	1.22	0.44	6.44	11.06	4.61
Oscar	CHE	4	1.50	0.50	2.00	0.50	7.50	11.00	3.50
Fábregas	CHE	10	1.80	1.30	2.60	1.50	6.60	10.90	4.30
Francis	BOU	10	3.00	2.40	1.30	0.90	5.80	10.85	5.05
Sakho (Diafra)	WHM	10	0.60	0.40	2.20	0.90	8.30	10.85	2.55
Olsson (Martin)	NOR	3	0.00	1.33	1.67	1.00	9.00	10.83	1.83
Hutton	AVL	7	2.00	1.57	1.71	0.43	6.43	10.71	4.29
Moses	WHM	5	0.60	0.60	2.00	0.80	8.20	10.70	2.50
Zárate	WHM	6	1.17	0.50	1.83	0.50	7.67	10.67	3.00
Abdi	WAT	8	2.88	0.88	1.88	1.25	6.00	10.56	4.56
Walcott	ARS	8	0.25	0.25	1.00	0.13	9.25	10.56	1.31
Cédric Soares	SOT	9	2.44	2.78	1.78	1.11	5.33	10.39	5.06
Sessegnon	WBA	2	1.50	1.00	3.50	1.50	5.50	10.25	4.75
Herrera	MUN	6	1.50	0.83	2.33	1.00	6.50	10.25	3.75
Gomis	SWA	10	0.20	0.40	2.00	0.70	8.20	10.25	2.05
Capoue	WAT	10	2.30	3.10	4.50	2.70	3.20	10.20	7.00
Shaqiri	STO	7	0.43	0.57	2.00	0.57	7.57	10.00	2.43
Sissoko	NEW	9	1.11	0.67	1.67	0.89	7.33	10.00	2.67
Januzaj	MUN	2	0.50	0.00	2.50	1.00	7.50	10.00	2.50
Hoolahan	NOR	9	0.56	0.67	2.00	0.67	7.22	9.78	2.56
Dele Alli	TOT	9	2.22	2.56	3.67	2.11	3.67	9.78	6.11
Walters	STO	6	0.67	0.17	3.00	0.67	6.33	9.75	3.42
Deeney	WAT	10	1.00	0.40	2.10	1.30	7.10	9.75	2.65
Nyom	WAT	10	3.00	2.40	2.40	1.20	3.70	9.70	6.00
Westwood	AVL	9	1.44	1.33	1.44	1.33	6.78	9.67	2.89
Fernandinho	MCI	10	2.90	1.90	2.70	1.60	3.90	9.65	5.75
Rojo	MUN	3	1.67	3.00	2.67	2.00	4.67	9.50	4.83
Arnautovic	STO	9	0.89	0.67	2.00	1.11	6.78	9.44	2.67
Naughton	SWA	8	1.50	1.63	2.50	1.25	5.25	9.44	4.19
McClean	WBA	10	1.30	0.60	2.30	1.00	6.00	9.40	3.40
Brunt	WBA	9	1.33	2.22	1.33	1.00	6.11	9.39	3.28
Berahino	WBA	8	0.50	0.38	1.38	0.38	7.50	9.38	1.88
Diego Costa	CHE	8	0.63	0.38	2.63	1.13	6.50	9.38	2.88
Schlupp	LEI	10	1.80	1.70	2.00	0.80	5.10	9.35	4.25
Lanzini	WHM	8	1.13	1.00	1.38	0.63	6.63	9.31	2.69
Jurado	WAT	7	0.43	1.00	2.71	0.71	6.00	9.29	3.29
Coleman	EVE	7	1.71	1.14	1.71	0.29	5.43	9.29	3.86
Bolasie	CPL	9	0.44	0.11	2.00	0.89	7.22	9.28	2.06
Naismith	EVE	9	1.11	0.33	3.78	1.89	5.11	9.22	4.11
Moreno	LIV	9	1.44	0.89	1.44	0.33	6.00	9.17	3.17
Benteke	LIV	7	0.14	0.00	2.14	0.86	7.29	9.14	1.86
Ivanovic	CHE	8	1.75	1.25	2.63	1.75	5.00	9.13	4.13
Pieters	STO	10	3.40	2.10	2.90	1.10	2.30	9.10	6.80

So how do we go about assessing this data? Armed with the match-odds, we can start to target some value plays that excel in tackles or interceptions. This opens up defensive midfielders and some center backs (though, not all of them) as options for our rosters. The pricing did come down a bit, with the most expensive players sitting right at $8,000 with the cheapest basement dwellers at $2,000. The average salary on a $50K salary cap with 11 players is $4,545 with 37 players sitting above that salary while 293 sitting below. That’s a good range and nailing your value plays will become even more pressing for constructing your daily fantasy soccer lineup.

Most Important Statistic

There has been a lot of concern how this change heavily devalues the importance of offensive players and may even make targeting defenders on a team expected to not have plenty of possession a strategy worth considering. I dove into the numbers so far this season to try to get an idea on whether this holds true. What I found is that the most important predictor for DK scoring is still shots + chances created which are both heavily correlated with player touches in the opponents final third, This doesn’t change what we already knew with the old scoring system. While stats such as tackles, interceptions and fouls committed don’t have a high correlation with the player DK scoring under the new scoring system.

What this means, is that while the introduction of extra statistics does help with the overall floor of some players and makes some players more obvious cash game plays while others are now relegated to a GPP play only, it does not devalue the effect an offensive juggernaut has on your lineup. Rostering somebody such as Alexis Sanchez is still a smart move if he’s in a good spot, but this change improves the ability to roster a player such as Yohan Cabaye without sacrificing too much if he doesn’t score a goal.

With the salaries for this week’s lineups just being released, we won’t waste much more time and we’ll get right to the picks.

Goalkeepers

Joe Hart, Manchester City $3,900 – With the pricing dropped across the board to accommodate three extra players in our lineups, we find our most expensive keeper still comes in as the biggest favorite in Joe Hart. Hart and City are hosting Norwich this week and Norwich are currently a 14-to-1 underdog in this matchup. Goalkeepers were not really affected by the different stats, and most goalkeepers won’t see a change in their overall statistical output. There is one exception, as there is no longer a 1GA (single goal against) bonus available to either goalkeepers or defenders, which eliminates some of the upside of some keepers, but that is hard to quantify or predict. For this week, though, Hart is by far the top keeper and he’s at home. His price isn’t astronomically high so you can still afford to roster some high dollar players along side him.

Wayne Hennessey, Crystal Palace $2,900 – If you choose to go with a cheaper keeper, then Wayne Hennessey is a good play to target this week. Palace are also at home and playing host to the other Manchester Club. United have looked less than stellar offensively the last few matches and with the recent shift of Martial to the wing and with Rooney back in the striker spot, I believe that the overall offensive effectiveness for United should be downgraded for this match and that upgrades Hennessey as a potential for saves and possibly the win.

Other Goalkeepers to Consider: Petr Cech (Arsenal, $3,700), Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea, $2,900), Boaz Myhill (West Brom Albion, $3,100)

Defenders

Aleksandar Kolarov, Manchester City $4,700 – He’s still the best fantasy defender in the EPL this season, even with the new scoring. In fact, the new scoring just adds a few extra points his way. He’s also in a heavily favored situation with a team that should get the easy W and the potential for a clean sheet. One thing that the new scoring does is that it makes the clean sheet bonus more of a risk/GPP play than a cash game play. Targeting a player for the potential clean sheet bonus is no longer viable and you’ll still want to target those who have a high floor and can get to that floor by attacking and getting touches in the final third. Kolarov does that.

Nyom, Watford $2,800 – Another way for players to reach a high floor is through drawing fouls, interceptions or winning tackles. Nyom averages 6.8 fantasy points off fouls drawn, interceptions and tackles alone. Add to it any attacking numbers he can put up such as shots or crosses (which he averages 3.6 of in a game this season) and Nyom could give you double digit scores all on his own without scoring a goal or an assist. And for his cheap price of $2.8K, he’s going to be in all my cash lineups.

Marcus Rojo, Manchester United $2,800 – He has a slightly lower floor than Nyom, but bigger upside, as Rojo gets more touches in the final third than the Watford defender. Rojo is also a very skilled defender on a United team that is expected to get a win according to the odds makers. Another thing to consider is their opponent and the potential for interceptions and tackles since Palace complete only 76% of their passes which is good for 16th in the league giving Rojo and his fellow United defenders plenty of potential for extra points.

Other Defenders To Consider: Kevin Mbabu (Newcastle, $2,000), Daryl Janmaat (Newcastle, $3,100), Martin Olsson (Norwich, $2,200), Kyle Naughton (Swansea, $3,100)

Midfielders

Dimitri Payet, West Ham United $6,700 – Regardless of the scoring system used, Dimitri Payet should be the highest priced player in DFS soccer. No, that was not a typo, and yes, I am serious. Look at the table above and sort by “DK Points” and then sort by “Old DK Scoring” you’ll notice that Payet remains at the top for both categories. Payet has averaged 9.3 crosses a game which puts him as one of the top crossing threats in the whole game. His shots + chances created sit at 6.1 per game and he has scored a goal every two games and an assist every three games. This week they are facing Watford at home and Payet and the Hammers should put plenty of pressure on Watford, which should yield plenty of points for Payet.

Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $6,500 – Since coming to Manchester City, De Bruyne has been a revelation and a major catalyst in their excellent performances. He’s averaging 2.7 shots, 6 crosses a game, and a goal or an assist every other game. With the team being short handed again without Aguero, Silva and potentially Raheem Sterling (though, the latter should be ready to go by Saturday), KDB is a premier play this week. This is a week where I will roster more midfielders than forwards in my cash games and will look to take advantage of the extra roster spots and get some more points guaranteed with the new scoring.

Riyadh Mahrez, Leicester City $7,200 – Along the same theme, however, Mahrez falls in my GPP plays. Leicester City will again look to defy the odds as they head to take on Tony Pulis’ men who are known for their defensive prowess. Mahrez however has played this season like a man possessed, and many will be off him given the toughness of the matchup. I believe this may be a good opportunity to jump back on and take a flyer on Mahrez-Vardy one more time. If you need some salary relief, Mahrez’ midfield counterpart Albrighten averages 7.8 crosses a game and is a high floor option for a cheaper $5,500.

Yohan Cabaye, Crystal Palace $4,800 – With the emergence of the new scoring, there will be some players who’s value sky rockets simply because we are now counting stats that they do well. Of those, Yohan Cabaye is front and center this week. His average fantasy points went from 11.3 to 18.8. Ranking him from an above average play to an almost must play for cash games at his discounted price. Cabaye has 4 goals already on the season, however, his goal scoring isn’t what we’re after (though it would be nice) what we’re targeting is his tackles (3.4/game), his interceptions (3.7/game), fouls drawn (2.9/game) and shots (2.3/game). His price won’t stay this low for long and expect that it will rise over the coming weeks, so take advantage while you can.

Other Midfielders To consider: Robbie Brady (Norwich, $3,900), Bakary Sako (Crystal Palace, $4,500), Mesut Ozil (Arsenal, $6,400), Marc Albrighton (Leicester, $5,500), Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke, $4,500), James McClean (West Brom, $2,500), Georgino Wijnaldum (Newcastle, $4,500), Jesus Navas (Manchester City, $4,700), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, $6,100)

Forwards

Wilfried Bony, Manchester City $5,200 – With City missing some key players, Bony has found his way into my lineups and has rewarded us nicely. He had a goal in the midweek fixture in the Capital One Cup against Crystal Palace and remains the lone striker for a potent offense that should have an easy day with a Norwich squad that has allowed 13 goals on the road so far this season.

Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal $8,000 – The most expensive player on this slate, and the only one with the potential for 5 goals. However, on the road, that potential is dampened a bit, and against Swansea who have only allowed 4 goals at home in their first five games, Sanchez takes a bit of a hit in his upside. However, Sanchez still maintains a solid floor. He still averages 4.8 shots a game, with a conversion rate of 12.5%, the goals can come in at any time.

Joel Campbell, Arsenal $3,000 – Two forwards from the same team? Well, if you want to roster Sanchez, you may do well to roster Campbell who should be getting the start on the wing Saturday for the Gunners. Arsenal are missing several key players, Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, are the most recent additions to the injury sheet and with Campbell as a potential starter, look for him as a salary relief option that has the potential to excel. He’ll be looking to impress the boss and if he can do so, he might find himself as a permanent part of the rotation moving forward.

Odion Ighalo, Watford $5,100 – Watford have scored 8 goals this season. Ighalo has either scored or assisted on 7 of them. While that offensive output isn’t enough to turn any heads, the role that Ighalo has played on the newly promoted side can’t be denied. Ighalo has taken 29 shots out of 124 total for his team (approximately 24% of the shots). And with Watford playing at home against West Ham, expect that match to feature some goals and for Ighalo to be a part of it.