EPL Top Plays: Final Gameweek Edition
This is the way the season ends
This is the way the season ends
This is the way the season ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
The end of Barclays Premiership season is upon us, and where everybody expects fireworks and last minute goals to tilt the tide in one direction over the other, the majority of us will be left a tad bit disappointed as most of these matches won’t matter in terms of standings. This year, with the title race done, the Champions League race done, the Europa League all but done, and with just three minnows fighting to avoid relegation, there will be little drama in the final day of the EPL. What’s more, most teams have already begun announcing that they will be resting players, or giving the chances to the reserves in the final matchday of the season.
But us DFS players have something to root for, both major sites have some big championships on Sunday with some big money to be given out to the victor. The key to success on Sunday will be figuring out each manager’s game plan and where they intend to push the action and which players will be in the best positions. The only two teams that are in must-win situations are Hull City and Newcastle United. With Newcastle being winless in their last 10 matches, it’s a very difficult situation to trust going into the weekend’s matches. Meanwhile, Hull just have to defeat Manchester United at home, while simultaneously hope that Newcastle fail to win against West Ham United. Fortune tends to favor the bold, and in order to have the DFS gods shine upon you Sunday, you may have to be a bit bold with your team selection and maybe you’ll be left with the giant check at the end of the day.
This week all the matches are being played Sunday and not Saturday, as usual, be sure to check starting lineups as there is nothing certain until you see the official starting XI announced (usually on Twitter). As such, I’ll be doing my best to post the lineups on Twitter right as they become available Sunday morning (roughly one hour prior to lineup lock). Be sure to follow me, and ask any questions you may have and I’ll do my best to answer them. For now, here are my picks for the final week of the Premier League season.
Goalkeeper
Note, one of my top goalkeepers on the day is the Manchester United’s Valdez, but unfortunately, due to some internal issues with DraftKings, he is not in the player pool, so alas, we’ll have to do without him.
Petr Cech, Chelsea $5,500 – This may be the final match that Cech ever plays for Chelsea, and early word is that Jose Mourinho will put his veteran goalkeeper in between the posts one last time before the Czech international closes this chapter of his career and prepares to open a new one with whichever club he may land with. Cech has had numerous excellent performances in his career with the Blues, and his opponent this week, Sunderland, shouldn’t be a huge threat. Sunderland are coming off a match where they parked the bus against Arsenal and narrowly escaped relegation and their result in this matchup will not matter. Chelsea will be looking to celebrate once this match is over and will be receiving their trophy, so they will be motivated to put on a good display and show some good form to close out the season.
Brad Guzan, Aston Villa $4,700 – Fortune favors the bold. After narrowly losing last weekend 6-1 (kidding, that was a bad loss) Tim Sherwood is sure to look for changes to his team that couldn’t stop anything shot at target. Guzan was not in goal during the massacre at Southampton, and he’ll be back in goal this week. Villa are preparing for the FA Cup final at the end of the month against Arsenal, and playing against relegation bound Burnley shouldn’t be a big challenge. I believe this will be a boring defensive match that may well end in 0-0. Burnley may look to threaten a few times with Danny Ings in his final match with the club, He’s a risk to score (because narrative) however, if he fails then Guzan will have a few saves in his belt and if Villa can sneak one past the visitors, then he gets the win bonus to go along with it.
Other Goalkeepers I Like: Tim Krul (Newcastle, $5,200), Joe Hart (Arsenal, $5,500), Jack Butland (Stoke, $4,100), Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester, $5,400), Adrian (West Ham, $4,000)
Defenders
Hector Bellerin, Arsenal $5,000 – Arsenal are one of the bigger favorites on the board, and Bellerin has been trending upwards in terms of his overall performance in recent weeks. In the last four weeks (five matches) he’s averaged close to 25 touches in the final third and almost four in the penalty area. Moreover, he’s delivered crosses to the tune of almost five crosses a week. The potential is there and the game flow should favor an Arsenal attack. Bellerin is slightly more expensive than other options, but with the potential for a big game, he could easily deliver on his price tag.
Ryan Taylor, Newcastle $4,800 – With defenders, you want the ones that will push forward and present the most opportunities, sometimes, these picks will be a bit “chalky”, other times they will go against the grain. I expect that Taylor will fall in the former category as many people will recognize that Newcastle needs a win desperately to secure their survival and thus will push forward until they manage a goal to lead the match. prior to last week’s blip on the performance radar, Taylor had been a crossing machine averaging nearly five crosses in the four games prior to that one. Moreover, Taylor is listed as a defender on DK while he’s really playing more of a winger in the midfield, giving him extra opportunities to score goals and threaten.
Luke Garbutt, Everton $3,600 – The risk associated with this play is evident in the cheap price tag. Everton are unlikely to hold a clean sheet in this matchup, and may end up having to defend heavily against Tottenham side. Garbutt may not start, and if he does, he carries a considerable risk of being subbed off before the match is over, however, he is a good player who will attack with his team and will provide crosses and create chances for his teammates. If you’re looking for cost savings, this is a good spot to save some salary cap.
Other Defenders I Like: Eric Dier (Tottenham, $4,900), Nathaniel Clyne (Southampton, $4,200), Kieran Trippier (Burnley, $5,800), Alexander Kolarov (Manchester City, $5,000), Ben Mee (Burnley, $3,800), Carl Jenkinson (West Ham United, $5,000), Branislav Ivanovic (Chelsea, $5,400), Danny Rose (Tottenham, $3,900), Daryl Janmaat (Newcastle, $3,900)
Midfielders
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Swansea $7,900 – Swansea are playing well and with Sigurdsson moving forward as a false 9, he had more than half his touches last week in the final third. Sigurdsson does carry some risk this week, as we don’t know which version of him will show up. Will it be the version that scored a goal against Manchester City or will it be the one that has struggled on the road against Arsenal and sat back on defense? I believe that Swansea playing against Crystal Palace this week will be a close match and will feature some goals putting Gylfi right in the thick of things.
Marc Albrighton, Leicester $5,300 – Albrighton might be the top crossing midfielder for Sunday’s games, and that would put him squarely as an option for any team. His price is very affordable as well, and the narrative of Leicester going against QPR as a heavy favorite pits their midfield as an attacking one going into this matchup. Albrighton should be slightly low owned as most people will focus on big names and if Albrighton can deliver his regular crossing output as well as potential to score a goal or an assist.
Aaron Ramsey, Arsenal $6,100 – Ramsey and Cazorla had an astounding match against Sunderland last week despite not scoring. They each totaled more than 150 touches. Now none of that translated to fantasy performance as Sunderland played a very tight defensive strategy that led to most of the touches going to waste. Ramsey however is the more adept crosser, and tends to drift out to the wings and deliver crosses into the box. Cazorla is more likely to play the ground game and either be the deliverer of a pass that leads to a shot or take the final shot himself. Ramsey carries as much upside as Cazorla but has a higher floor, so even if he does not manage to score a goal, he would be in a good spot for your fantasy team.
Other Midfielders I Like: Yaya Toure (Manchester City, $7,100), Willian (Chelsea, $5,700), Santi Cazorla (Arsenal, $6,800), David Silva (Manchester City, $8,000), Stewart Downing (West Ham, $7,200), Jason Puncheon (Crystal Palace, $6,300), Yannick Bolasie (Crystal Palace, $6,700), Moussa Sissoko (Newcastle, $4,200)
Forwards
Marko Arnautovic, Stoke City $4,600 – Arnautovic is the definition of a roller coaster. His last few game weeks show DK scores of 5, 26, 5, 20, and 10. Looking closely, all his single digit scores have come on the road, while his double digit scores have come at home. The high scores are mostly buoyed by high cross numbers as well as more shots. The correlation is very simple. When Arnautovic has 50 or more touches in a game he tends to cross the ball more often and take about 1 shot for every 10 touches. When he’s marginalized and has only about 30 touches a game, he’s not as involved and doesn’t get many crosses or shots. So what will it be this week? Will Arnautovic get the touches? Or will he disappoint us?
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City, $10,200 – He’s the most expensive player on the slate, and he’s arguably one of the best strikers in the Premier League as he did lead the whole league in goals scored at 25. Aguero will look to add to his total this Sunday when Manchester City take on Southampton. The risk is there though as Southampton have been one of the best defending teams in the Premier League having allowed the fewest goals among any team with 31 goals in 37 matches. There is a wrinkle however, in their last six matches Southampton have allowed 9 goals which puts them as fourth worst defense in that span, including not maintaining a clean sheet at any point in the last five matches. I like Aguero to threaten the goal this week and even score one or two.
Christian Benteke, Aston Villa $9,400 – Benteke has scored 13 goals on the season with 11 of them coming in the last ten matches. Moreover, he’s going against a Burnley squad that has already been relegated and Benteke has proven over the last few weeks that he can score against anybody. With goals against Southampton, Everton and Tottenham in the last few weeks, Burnley seem likely to concede a goal to Benteke this go around.
Other Forwards I like:
Instead of just listing forwards, I’ll give a one sentence on each one of these with why I like them
Charlie Austin, QPR $9,300 – A little overpriced, but the fourth highest goal scorer in the EPL. Also had a recent callup for international duty.
Robbie Brady, Hull $3,600 – Hull need a win to avoid relegation, I don’t think they get it, but Brady is very very cheap and he delivers crosses like crazy. don’t expect much from him beyond 5-10 points, but for his price, that’s all you need.
Befetimbi Gomis, Swansea $7,100 – Gomis has five goals in five games. He’s really cheap for that output, but regression could be coming.
Romelu Lukaku, Everton $8,100 – Lukaku has had a bad season, but he’s been known to finish the season strong. This matchup against Tottenham at home could be all the motivation he needs to score another goal to end the year.
Jamie Vardy, Leicester $7,500 – Another recent England callup. Vardy will look to celebrate in front of his home fans and will hope to score a goal to end the season in style. He’s also a threat to get an assist as well.
Papiss Cisse, Newcastle $6,400 – Cisse should start for Newcastle and will be their hope at scoring a goal to secure their spot in the premiership next season. I don’t like his chances, but he has an outside shot at being a goalscorer this weekend.
Didier Drogba, Chelsea $6,400 – He may start, and if he does could score in what will be his second last game as a Chelsea player.
Danny Ings, Burnley $7,900 – His squad are being relegated, and Burnley will be looking to end on a high note. Ings’ contract is up after this season and will be moving on. Good opportunity to showcase?
Nikica Jelavic, Hull $5,600 – Hull need a win, Jelavic hasn’t scored in 2 months. In order to have a chance at survival, he will need to break his drought this week. Could also go with N’Doye at $7,300.