EPL Top Plays: Saturday, April 1st
We have some changes in the soccer world. FanDuel recently added late swap and that in effect will change the way we’re building lineups over there. You not have to take into account if there are any players you want to consider over on that Sunday slate when building your lineups. Also, what’s different still between DK and FD is the existence of the utility spot on DK. So when you select a player for Sunday on FD make sure that there is a backup player in that price range you want to take in case your selection ends up not starting. That means you probably shouldn’t take any value plays from Sunday (unless you believe you can identify a pivot value play you can take if the need arises).
What’s more, this is a return from the international break which means a lot of teams will be rotating lineups in order to give their stars a break. You’ll see some spots where some players had to travel long distances from South America or Asia and thus may miss this week’s matches. One such example is Salomon Rondon. There are also some injuries to consider for some major pieces that would otherwise be squarely in our roster sites. For this, you’ll have to be sure to check out the starting lineups that come out Saturday morning and if you like, you can come hang out with me in the marketplace chat room where I’ll be answering questions and helping you build your lineups with last minute advice based on the lineups as they’re announced.
Without further delay, let’s get to the picks.
Goalkeepers
Tom Heaton, Burnley, $7,300 FD, $4,000 DK – The rule for goalkeepers still applies, take a home underdog who stands to face plenty of shots. In this case, Tom Heaton is at home and facing a very offensive minded Tottenham team that will rain shots. Tottenham this season have taken 14.2 shots per game away from home with 4.6 of those being on target. Couple that with the fact that Heaton leads the league in saves and you have a match made in heaven for fantasy players.
Eldin Jakupovic, Hull, $6,400 FD, $4,800 DK – With Jakupovic playing at home against West Ham, he’s not quite an underdog, but West Ham are a better team than Hull meaning that they’ll get their fair share of shots on target against this Hull side. I expect 3-6 shots on target with maybe 4-5 saves for Swiss keeper.
Thibaut Courtois, Chelsea, $6,700 FD, $5,900 DK – In case you want a more reliable option that won’t be facing plenty of shots and a higher chance of conceding, you can look at either David De Gea for Manchester United or Thibaut Courtois. Either of them carries the upside of a win and clean sheet bonus which mean more on DK than on FD, but both of them are susceptible to conceding goals and thus wiping away the clean sheet and/or win.
Defenders
Antonio Valencia, Manchester United, $6,400 FD, $6,100 DK – One of the least used strategies in DFS soccer is paying up for a defender. And for good reason, most fantasy points in soccer come from the offense and from shots and goals. In a case where a defender spends the majority of his time in his own half, there isn’t a lot of room for increased fantasy production. In this case though, there is reason to pay up for two defenders. Antonio Valencia and Marcos Alonso. Alonso of Chelsea is one to consider because he’s played a role as an advanced midfielder for this Chelsea team. Valencia has been productive offensively but his production has seemed limited with little upside. This week the team will be without Ander Herrera, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Paul Pogba. Without these three, there will be some players that have to step up and fill the gaps, chief among them on the right side of the pitch will be Antonio Valencia.
Harry Maguire, Hull, $6,600 FD, $3,500 DK – When targeting defenders for tournaments either going expensive or really cheap will set you apart on DraftKings. What’s odd is that oftentimes, the expensive and high upside line up in the same player over on FanDuel. In this case, Harry Maguire is both a cheap punt play on DK and an expensive high floor high upside play on FD. This stems from the nature of his game. Maguire will sit back and play defense most of the match while Hull absorbs the attack from Southampton, meanwhile when the team goes the other way and gets a spot kick or a corner, Maguire will step forward nad help take those shots. In fact, in his last six game weeks Maguire has 13 penalty area touches that have led to four shots at the goal (with 1 on target). The floor that he garners from defensive stats unfortunately isn’t translatable over on DK, but he does carry the upside of scoring a goal that can be of use in both sites.
Ryan Shawcross or Bruno Martins-Indi, Stoke, $5,800 FD – Stoke’s defenders carry some intrigue this week as they both are facing a Leicester team that has seen a resurgence to pull them out of the depths of relegation and into the middle of the pack. Leicester is also advancing in the Champions League and can still walk away with a successful season despite how badly they’ve played in the EPL. In come Stoke, who have had a rough go at it away from home in recent weeks and come against a Leicester team that has discovered their defending champion form. Shawcross and Martins-Indi will both be facing plenty of offense to try to put down which will increase their chances at tackles, interceptions, clearances, and blocks, all of which count heavily over on FD. They have little incentive to roster on DK unless you think they can pull off a shot or two and come away with a surprise goal.
Midfielders
Dusan Tadic, Southampton, $6,600 FD, $6,400 DK – Tadic has been a man transformed in recent weeks. He had 32 fantasy points over the international break, and right before the break was able to come away with a 2 assist and 1 goal match against Watford. Tadic will get more opportunities in this matchup without Southampton’s new addition Manolo Gabbiadini in what should be a win for the home side as they take on Bournemouth.
Dele Alli, Tottenham, $9,600 FD, $8,600 DK – There is plenty to like about Tottenham and specifically Dele Alli as they come into this matchup with Burnley. The team will be without Harry Kane and Alli and Eriksen will be expected to take the reigns in this matchup to try to break down Tom Heaton and his defenders. Alli is a cheaper option than Eriksen and carries a slightly lower floor but higher upside. An ideal tournament option is to pair him with Son Hueng-Min for maximum upside in points.
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Swansea, $10,100 FD, $ DK – Looking to Sunday’s games where FanDuel is including for late swap purposes, Gylfi Sigurdsson comes to mind as Swansea will look to defeat an offensively challenged Middlesbrough. Playing at home, Sigurdsson will have the opportunities to put some shots up and deliver some crosses and create chances for his teammates making him a good play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Michael Carrick, Manchester United, $6,200 FD – Without Paul Pogba, who is extremely loved by this week’s projections, Michael Carrick gets the majority of the midfield creator role that Pogba played. With Manchester United playing against West Brom, they’ll need to control the midfield and Carrick has shown the ability to do just that and support the attack with Mkhytaryan and Mata pushing down the middle.
Forwards
Diego Costa, Chelsea, $12,000 FD, $9,700 DK – Without the presence of Ibrahimovic, Kane, Alexis, and Aguero for Saturday’s matches on DK, Costa takes pole position as the top (and most expensive striker). There is plenty of reason to fade him this week, coming off injury, team has rumors of him leaving this summer, Chelsea lead the league by 10 points they might slow down, all that said, if you choose to pay up for any one forward with the upside of a hat-trick, then Costa should be that forward.
Son Heung-Min, Tottenham, $9,000 FD, $8,100 DK – Tottenham will have their work cut out for them as they visit Burnley this week. Son had some runs in his career where he starts as a striker in a 4-2-3-1 and has been able to deliver on that promise. This match seems like one where that promise will be kept once more and you’ll be very hard pressed to build some teams without Son as he’s seemingly in line for a 20+ point game on DK and a 35 point game on FD.
Jamie Vardy, Leicester, $8,500 FD, $6,600 DK – The star of last season is Jamie Vardy (and his partner in crime, Riyad Mahrez) is back to his old ways after some rough weeks. He scored a goal in the first leg with Sevilla in the UCL and since then he’s scored a brace against Liverpool, and has back to back goals against West Ham and another goal for England in the international break. Vardy’s price on DK is still very low for his contributions and upside, while his price on FD is very reasonable. A combination play of Son and Vardy at forward will likely be a popular one and if they come through then you might find yourself in a bit of trouble trying to cash.