EPL Top Plays: Saturday, April 25th
Welcome back sports fans! It’s another week with the English Premier League and with this Saturday slate we get several very interesting matchups with only one clear home favorite in Manchester City, and another road favorite in Liverpool. These two teams should be the majority of your targets, but I’ll try to capture a few more players in good spots. Without Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham, four of the top six teams in the Premier League aren’t even in action on Saturday. This leaves us with a unique opportunity to target teams that are lower in the table in better than typical matchups. Clean sheets will be tough to come by, but if you can predict the game flow for the different contests it can lead to a profitable day.
As always, feel free to leave a comment letting me know what you liked (or didn’t like). You can also ask me questions on twitter where I’ll be tweeting out the starting XI about an hour before lineups lock. Good Luck.
Goalkeepers
Joe Hart, Manchester City $5,400 – Sometimes you have to go with the expensive option. As mentioned above, City are by far the largest favorite on the day, and really the only true heavy favorite at -400 according to some outlets. They are playing at home where they have won four straight and have taken 13 of the last 18 points. They have not allowed a goal in their last four home games. My only concern is their opponent, Aston Villa who have turned around their offensive strategy lately and that has resulted in some positive results on the road in recent weeks. Having scored goals in each of their last three road matches, it’s tough to expect them to duplicate the 1-0 away win at Tottenham last weekend. I’ll take the risk with Hart as my main option for keeper.
Tim Krul, Newcastle United $4,200 – If you decide to punt your goalkeeper spot, then Tim Krul is in a great spot as he’s facing a Swansea side that is currently without a striker. Moreover, Newcastle are slight favorites but not overwhelming favorites. There is considerable risk by going this low for a goalkeeper as Krul hasn’t exhibited the talent to be an elite goalkeeper this season. In fact, over the last six weeks he has conceded an average of two goals a game while making roughly 3.6 saves a game. However, his opponent is missing their top option at forward and is left with a makeshift mix of attackers that will mimic an attack. In their last matchup against Leicester, Swansea were unable to score a goal and managed only 10 shots, with 6 of them on target. That high shot conversion percentage won’t last as most teams only convert about 30% of their shots to target. Krul should have a decent day between the sticks and for his price, he’s worth the gamble.
Other Goalkeepers I Like: Simon Mignolet (Liverpool $5,300), Asmir Begovic (Stoke City, $5,000), Julian Speroni (Crystal Palace $5,100), Robert Green (QPR, $4,500), Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea $4,600)
Defenders
Pablo Zabaleta, Manchester City $4,200 – The chalk would point towards taking the wing defender that you can pair with a goalkeeper. This week, the arrow points to Pablo Zabaleta as the defender of choice. Zabaleta or Koralov fit the bill, but my choice will be Zabaleta due to the price difference. Koralov has produced more in terms of crosses, but Zabaleta has gotten plenty of touches in the final third in recent weeks and City have really committed to attacking down the flanks. This puts the Argentine defender in a good spot to perform this week.
Alberto Moreno, Liverpool $3,900 – Liverpool have switched formation up a bit mid-game and last weekend played a 3-5-2 with Moreno shifting to the midfield as a supporting attacker. This has led to an uptick in recent attacking performance and more attempts on goal. In his last six weeks, Moreno has taken 5 shots while delivering 10 crosses. Of those, he’s created five chances and while none of them have resulted in an assist, Moreno could be in line for one soon. With Liverpool looking to get all three points on the road to West Brom, I like Moreno as an option for my defense this week.
Other Defenders I Like: Joel Ward (Crystal Palace, $3,100), Kieran Trippier (Burnley, $5,500), Aleksandar Koralov (Manchester City, $4,800), Daryl Janmaat (Newcastle, $3,400), Patrick Van Aanholt (Sunderland, $3,400), Erik Pieters (Stoke, $3,200)
Midfielders
Philippe Coutinho, Liverpool $6,300 – The Liverpool midfielder has reached his highest price point since late January and I think he’ll be trending even higher in the upcoming weeks. Coutinho has played well in his last six matches and while those matches featured two tough losses for Liverpool, I expect the upcoming run of fixtures to be good for the Reds and in turn for Coutinho. While I’m highlighting Coutinho for this matchup today, I also like Raheem Sterling as well, but in the last six weeks, Coutinho has bested his teammate in Goal Attempts, Shots, Chances Created and touches in the final third. They each have a goal to their names, but Coutinho is missing any assists in his last six matches. I expect this week to feature some Coutinho action as he gets his name on the scoreboard, or at least assists on a goal.
Matt Phillips, QPR $4,000 – Few have managed to solve the mystery that is Matty Phillips in recent weeks. Over the last six weeks, he’s averaged 29 touches in the final third, 2 shots, 8.8 crosses (not all accurate and not all count for DK purposes, but the attempts are there), as well as 2 chances created. He’s converted this activity to three assists and two goals, and with QPR being a slight favorite at home to West Ham United, I like Matt Phillips to continue his streak of six double-digit scores in his last ten matches. In addition, for the price savings, Phillips is almost a no-brainer.
Yanick Bolasie, Crystal Palace $7,500 – Two weeks after his monster hat-trick in eleven minutes, I find myself considering Bolasie as a cash game option. Last match against West Brom, Bolasie managed 15 DraftKings points without scoring or assisting on any goals. This week, he’s facing a Hull squad that has allowed 15.1 shots per game on the road this season and with Bolasie playing as a forward in a heavily favorite match, I like the potential production from the midfield that he can provide.
Other Midfielders I Like: Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, $8,600), David Silva (if not injured) (Manchester City, $7,900), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Swansea, $7,700), Wayne Routledge (Swansea, $5,200) (Both Swansea midfielders are GPP options only as their team will rely on them for attacks), Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace, $4,200), Stewart Downing (West Ham United, $6,800)
Forwards
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $10,200 – There are three facets to why I am considering Aguero my top option at forward who I will have in most of my lineups: 1) Manchester City have shifted to a 4-4-1-1 formation over the last two matches. In that time, Aguero has ten goal attempts and three goals to show for it. 2) Manchester City still have something to play for, currently in fourth place and one point behind third, City wants to get every point they can in order to qualify directly to the Champions League with no qualifiers. 3) Aston Villa have allowed 8 goals in their last six matches (including three to QPR, at home no less), While Villa have increased their offensive output in recent weeks, their defense has been suspect and if they make any mistakes then Aguero will surely take advantage of the situation and add to his recent goal tally.
Charlie Austin, Queens Park Rangers $9,300 – It’s been a few weeks since I’ve written up the QPR striker, but QPR have shown something in recent weeks with the improved form of the midfield, led by Matt Phillips. A Phillips-Austin linkup could prove vital this weekend as QPR play host to West Ham who have not played well away from home recently (with a -8 goal difference in the last six matches). Austin and Aguero could both be fit on your teams if you choose to save money elsewhere at midfield and defense.
Other Forwards I Like: Mame Diouf (Stoke $6,100), Danny Ings (Burnley $6,300), Eden Dzeko (Manchester City $7,700), Saido Berahino (West Brom, $7,700), Glen Murray (Crystal Palace, $5,700), Jamie Vardy (Leicester, $5,800), Enner Valencia (West Ham, $7,500)