EPL Top Plays: Saturday, May 16th
It’s the penultimate EPL weekend of the 2014/15 season. Chelsea have already sealed their fate as Champions of the England, the fight for Europe is ending not with a bang but with a whimper (shout-out to T.S. Eliot), and the only excitement we have left in terms of the table is the relegation battle. There are five teams at risk to drop along with Burnley and QPR. The most likely to join these two in the Championship next season is Hull as they currently occupy the 18th and final relegation spot. The other four squads that are going to battle it out over the next two match-weeks are Newcastle, Sunderland, Leicester, and Aston Villa. The matches involving any of these five teams will likely be the most hotly contested, but maybe not the most aesthetically pleasing given their position in the table.
The Champions League teams are essentially set with both Manchester clubs and Arsenal joining Chelsea in Europe’s most prestigious of competitions. A class below is Europa League which can feature up to four England teams with Liverpool, Tottenham, Southampton and Swansea currently vying for at least three out of four spots. Swansea will look to cement their spot with a pair of wins to close out the season, and if Arsenal defeat Aston Villa in the FA cup final then you could find 8 England teams playing in Europe next year. Regardless, there is still plenty to play for when it comes to a lot of these teams and some teams should be putting their best teams forward to obtain positive results.
With all that said, we, DFS-ers have something to look forward to, both Mondogoal and DraftKings have gigantic tournaments on their respective sites to close out the season and both are running qualifiers this weekend. On DraftKings, you can directly buy-in for the Fantasy Soccer World Championship or attempt to qualify for cheap this weekend. On Mondogoal, it is a qualifier only event with a few more seats being given this weekend leading up to the Championship on the final matchday of the season.
This weekend, the lineups will be very important as squad rotation will come into effect for the majority of the teams in play Saturday and Sunday, so be sure to watch out for lineups coming out about an hour before kickoff. As always, I’ll do my best to tweet them out, so be sure to follow me on twitter and ask any questions you may have, I’ll be happy to help.
Let’s get on with the picks.
Goalkeepers
Simon Mignolet, Liverpool, $5,600 – Liverpool are the biggest favorite on the board this week and facing an out of sorts Crystal Palace team, Mignolet is in a great spot for this weekend’s matchups. Palace have lost their last four matches and have managed to score only a single goal in that span. While Liverpool have allowed goals in their last three matches, with this being the final home game of the season, the Reds will be looking to show their supporters some good form.
Jack Butland, Stoke City, $4,400 – The bookies have this matchup as a pick ‘em and the “under” on the 2.5 goals is the highest likelihood of all the games going on Saturday. Butland is cheaper than Heaton, which is why he’s my pick here. Heaton is a better player, but Burnley have only scored 1 goal in their last six matches, thus making Butland the more appealing option at goalkeeper for GPP purposes.
Other Goalkeepers I Like: Hugo Lloris (Tottenham, $5,800), Tim Krul (Newcastle, $4,500), Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester, $4,000), Costel Pantilimon (Sunderland, $4,800)
Defenders
Kieran Trippier, Burnley, $6,500 – No matter the metric you choose to rate your defenders, Trippier comes out at the top, or near the top for almost any category. His floor is very high, almost in double digits, and he’s playing for a squad that will fight to the end despite having already been relegated. Trippier might be in line for a transfer to another Premier League club when the season ends, but for now, he’ll continue to be the top crosser in the league as well as one of the highest chances created player. At his price, he’s very formidable so you’ll have to find savings elsewhere, however, if you choose to spend up on him, you won’t be disappointed.
Glen Johnson, Liverpool, $4,500 – It’s going to be tough to narrow down which defenders you want to take as a lot of these games are appearing to be close fought battles. The general rule of pairing at least one defender with a goalkeeper applies here, and with Mignolet being my top goalie on the slate, Glen Johnson wins the award for being the “second defender” on my list today. There is plenty more that makes Glen more appealing, over the last six matches, he’s averaged 13.8 touches in the final third, and while many of those don’t translate to attempts on target, with Liverpool being such heavy favorites I feel comfortable taking him as part of a Liverpool stack.
Ryan Taylor, Newcastle, $4,400 – I know he’s not as cheap as he was in recent weeks, but Ryan Taylor has been tremendous in the last few weeks as he’s been a crossing machine. Over the last six weeks he’s had almost half his touches in the final third end in crosses, and while not all of them fit in the official “cross” description on DraftKings, he does have plenty of opportunity to convert those into crosses, and many of these crosses turn into chances created that could be converted into assists.
Other Defenders I Like: Carl Jenkinson (West Ham United ($5,300), Luke Garbutt (Everton, $3,600), Patrick Van Aanholt (Sunderland, $4,200), Ben Mee (Burnley, $3,500), Erik Pieters (Stoke, $3,300)
Midfielders
Steven Gerrard, Liverpool, $5,900 – I’m a sucker for narratives, and there is not a bigger narrative going on right now in English sports than that of Steven Gerrard in his last EPL game at home before taking his craft to the retirement league MLS next season. Gerrard has come on strong in his last two matches with two goals and a growing number of offensive touches. Things are shaping up for the hero of Anfield to deliver one more time on his promise and when Liverpool hosts Crystal Palace in the last match on NBC, there will be plenty of people watching to see if Gerrard can score one last goal for his fans at home. I know he’ll be on at least one of my rosters.
Charlie Adam, Stoke $6,800 – Charlie Adam has been an excellent source of production in recent weeks, with the exception of the matchup against Swansea a couple of weeks ago, as he’s been a consistent double-digit producer, and if he manages a goal (which has happened four times in recent weeks) then his goal output climbs to the 20-30 point range. Adam has been an excellent source of production and should continue to do so even if Stoke fail to score any goals.
Marc Albrighton, Leicester $5,000 – Marc Albrighton has seen a surge in fantasy production in recent weeks and it all coincides with an increased role in the offense that has seen him push forward more and play more minutes as a result. Albrighton in recent weeks has had almost 44% of his total touches come in the final third which has led to an increased in his total crosses as a result. He has averaged close to 33 touches in the final third in the last six weeks and in 44% of these touches he’s managed to deliver a forward pass. Leicester has played well in recent weeks and with such an important matchup in the relegation battle, I believe that Leicester may find themselves on top when the referee blows his final whistle at 90 minutes on Saturday.
Other Midfielders I Like: Ahmed Elmohamady (Hull, $6,500), Stewart Downing (West Ham, $7,000), Philippe Coutinho (Liverpool, $7,400), Raheem Sterling (Liverpool, $9,000), Christian Eriksen (Tottenham, $8,500), Yannick Bolasie (Crystal Palace, $6,300), Aaron Lennon (Everton, $5,200)
Forwards
Harry Kane, Tottenham $10,600 – While Liverpool is the biggest favorite on the slate, Tottenham are actually the second favorite and I expect Kane to get back on track with scoring before the season ends. The young Spurs striker has a bright future ahead of him and will be looking to finish the season strong and to help his squad move into a guaranteed Europa League spot for next season. And while he has only scored one goal in the last six weeks, over that time span, Kane has taken three shots a game and over that time is third in total touches in the final third among all forwards. I fully expect him to get back to his scoring ways soon enough.
Jamie Vardy, Leicester $6,900 – Vardy and Ulloa have both been playing great in the last six weeks with five total goals between them and 32 touches. I preferred Vardy since he gets more chances, shots, and touches in the final third. He’s also delivered more crosses than Ulloa. With this matchup expected to be a close one between Leicester and Sunderland, I expect them both to be going hard to try to get the win and avoid relegation. Vardy is one of the better plays at his price point on the board.
Other Forwards I Like: Marko Arnautovic (Stoke, $4,500), Robbie Brady (Hull, $3,900), Papiss Cisse (Newcastle, $6,100), Mario Balotelli (if he starts) (Liverpool, $6,000), Connor Wickham (Sunderland, $6,800), Charlie Austin (QPR, $9,700)