EPL Top Plays: Saturday, October 24th
This week makes for an interesting slate of matches. There are six matches on Saturday and four on Sunday. I’ll be on a plane during the first slate on Saturday and will be unable to enter games during the Sunday slate, but I’m still entering some games. I did do my full allotment of research for this slate, as the games look very appealing. Don’t trust the bookie odds too much, as this may be a week where the oddsmakers make a lot of mistakes. Also, consider that there are several teams that may be missing players due to injuries, suspension or simply fatigue. I’ll discuss those situations throughout the article. And finally, look for statistical aberrations to begin correcting themselves this week with some players who’ve been getting plenty of goals starting to slow down and others who haven’t been successful to begin turning things around.
Opponent Stats
| Opponent | Opp. Chances Created | Opp. Goal Attempts | Opp. Touches – Final 3rd | Opp. Crosses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOU | 7.11 | 10.89 | 168.22 | 16.44 |
| NOR | 11.56 | 13.89 | 168.44 | 20.22 |
| CHE | 10.78 | 14.22 | 165.22 | 21.44 |
| LEI | 11.56 | 14.56 | 187.78 | 25.22 |
| SUN | 13.89 | 17.89 | 234.33 | 25.33 |
| SOT | 8.22 | 12.67 | 186.89 | 22.22 |
| MCI | 7.67 | 9.78 | 152.89 | 18.33 |
| AVL | 11.89 | 14.33 | 201.22 | 21.22 |
| NEW | 14.56 | 18.78 | 256.44 | 22.00 |
| LIV | 9.67 | 12.33 | 193.22 | 19.33 |
| WAT | 9.44 | 11.22 | 184.00 | 22.33 |
| EVE | 11.67 | 14.33 | 197.33 | 23.67 |
| MUN | 7.67 | 10.44 | 135.89 | 13.78 |
| WHM | 12.33 | 15.89 | 224.22 | 24.78 |
| SWA | 10.22 | 13.44 | 168.89 | 19.22 |
| STO | 11.11 | 15.89 | 199.11 | 21.78 |
| WBA | 11.11 | 13.00 | 185.44 | 21.00 |
| ARS | 9.44 | 11.67 | 190.22 | 17.89 |
| CPL | 13.22 | 16.56 | 187.33 | 17.78 |
| TOT | 9.67 | 13.56 | 183.11 | 20.89 |
Odds
| Home | Away | Home odds | Away Odds | Draw Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL | SWA | 3.03 | 2.61 | 3.25 |
| LEI | CPL | 2.27 | 3.33 | 3.58 |
| NOR | WBA | 2.01 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
| STO | WAT | 2.17 | 3.87 | 3.32 |
| WHM | CHE | 3.93 | 2 | 3.76 |
| ARS | EVE | 1.408 | 8.379 | 5.25 |
| SUN | NEW | 2.58 | 2.969 | 3.38 |
| MUN | MCI | 2.62 | 2.87 | 3.45 |
| BOU | TOT | 3.54 | 2.219 | 3.48 |
| LIV | SOT | 2.05 | 3.97 | 3.56 |
Goalkeeper
Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea $4,800 – You’ll find a lot of Petr Cech all over the industry, and he’s a great play, and he’s definitely the one that you should go with if you are risk averse. Arsenal are a great team playing at home, coming off the high of beating Bayern Munich in Champions League play midweek. However, their team lost Aaron Ramsey in that fixture, and there are reports that Alexis is fatigued and may be limited in this matchup. Add in the fact that Lukaku has looked like an excellent player this season, he’s on pace for his most touches ever in the Premier League, along with the most shots and the most goals, and this has me worried about relying on Cech for my cash teams. Fabianski and Swansea are visiting Aston Villa, who have been playing very badly at home this season. In four home matches, they’ve managed zero wins, one tie and three losses. They’ve scored just two goals at home this season and they came in a 2-2 draw against Sunderland. Fabianski should be a bigger favorite to get the win today than he is at the moment.
Boaz Myhill, West Bromwich Albion $4,300 – Here is my GPP pick of the week, West Brom are playing on the road at Norwich who are heavy favorites (in fact, they’re the second highest favorites on Saturday). However, Myhill is in a good spot for saves this week. He’s cheap enough that he can function as a viable GPP play, and WBA are a good defense overall. West Brom already have road wins at Stoke and Villa with a draw at Watford. I expect they’ll manage to get a result at Norwich which puts Myhill in a great GPP spot.
Other Goalkeepers To Consider: Petr Cech (Arsenal, $5,400), Asmir Begovic (Chelsea, $5,300), John Ruddy (Norwich, $4,900)
Defenders
Kyle Naughton, Swansea $4,300 – As is habit, I like to roster at least a single defender with my goalkeeper for the correlation. Naughton is my preferred defender off of Swansea as he does a lot of things that are appealing from a fantasy perspective. He manages a cross every 5.4 touches in the final third and averages approximately 15 touches in the opponents’ third per game. That translates to roughly 3-4 points off of crosses alone, and if you add in any potential crosses translating to an assist, combine it with the high likelihood of a clean sheet bonus and Naughton has double-digit upside this week.
Martin Olsson, Norwich $3,000 – He’s a cheap player that should be getting the start and should achieve plenty of stats. His crossing totals the two games he started are eight and four, couple that with the two assists he managed for his teams’ two goals last week and Olsson should find his place back in the starting XI this week as Norwich look to wipe the stink off their 6-2 loss to Newcastle.
Other Defenders To Consider: Baba Rahman (Chelsea $3,500), Nacho Monreal (Arsenal, $4,900), Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa, $4,300), Pape Souare (Crystal Palace, $4,100)
Midfielders
Yanick Bolasie, Crystal Palace $6,300 – Palace are in a tough predicament, they lost their forward Murray to a red card and follow up suspension, Patrick Bamford (CRY, $4,000) and Frazier Campbell (CRY, $4,400) are options to start up front, and one of them may very well start. However, Bolasie has started as a lone striker on the road earlier this season (against Tottenham), so if he gets the option as a striker this can be a huge advantage to roster him as that gives you four forwards on your team and the most upside. Bolasie also carries a high floor given his general role on the team as a crosser and shooter, and that is only enhanced if he shifts further up the field.
Marc Albrighton, Leicester City $7,600 – I think there will be lots of attention given to Leicester this week, and it won’t be a mistake. Albrighton however will be widely ignored due to the masses gravitating to Vardy and Mahrez. Albrighton carries the highest floor of any of them with his cross potential sitting at a ridiculously high mark (11, 8, and 9 in the last three weeks.) To put it in another light, he has 198 touches in the final third on the season and 36% of those have resulted in crosses.
Dimitri Payet, West Ham United $9,300 – I debated whether to go with Payet in this spot as Hazard, Mahrez, and Ozil are all good options for this price range. However, I had to go through and eliminate all the aforementioned options one by one to reach Payet. Hazard has looked like he lacks confidence this season so far and I think his price is prohibitive, I prefer to go down to Payet for just as much upside. Mahrez should be heavily owned, but may find himself falling back defensively to deal with Palace’s midfield, specifically Sako. Ozil has played great but with Arsenal playing fatigued I may stay away from them with the exception of GPPs. This leaves me with Payet as the remaining choice. Chelsea has looked weak defensively and Payet has been a skilled player and the motor behind the Hammer’s excellent results so far. He has the most touches of any of his teammates in the final third by a wide margin.
Other Midfielder To Consider: Eden Hazard (Chelsea, $9,800), Riyadh Mahrez (Leicester, $10,000), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Swansea, $7,200), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain $5,500, Nathan Redmond (Norwich $6,200), Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke, $6,200), Jefferson Montero (Swansea, $6,600), Cesc Fabregas (Chelsea, $7,500), Ross Barkley (Everton, $8,400)
Forwards
Bafetimbi Gomis, Swansea $8,500 – Gomis is my off the radar striker for the week. I debated between him and Lukaku and settled on Gomis seeing as Lukaku is facing Arsenal. And while I am downgrading Arsenal this week for cash games, I am still not targeting them, and will however look at Gomis to carry my teams. Gomis normally plays an aggressive style, and his starting spot has come with risk lately with Eder waiting on the wings. I think that Gomis gets another shot this week and I think he delivers some goals for his team looking to make a mark and get back on the winning side of things.
Diego Costa, Chelsea $9,200 – Opponents don’t like him, the fans don’t like him, and if you ask his manager, the refs don’t like him either. But I’m ok with that, and so is he. Costa relishes being the villain of the EPL and he’s going about his business now that he’s back from suspension. He did manage to score last weekend against Aston Villa. This week he’ll contend with a tougher defensive line in West Ham, but watch for the starting central defenders. If West Ham start Tomkins, then look for Costa to go after him and force him to make tackles. If they start Ogbonna, then that makes Costa less appealing for me as a forward at his price and I’d look to pivot elsewhere.
Dieumerci Mbokani, Norwich $4,700 – While I did recommend the WBA goalkeeper, that was for GPPs alone, Mbokani got his Premier League debut start last week and scored a goal which became his second goal in a row for his squad. Mbokani is a skilled player who came on to Norwich after the start of the season and has since made his mark despite the team losing to Newcastle 6-2 last weekend. Mbokani is a very active forward who I predict will see his price rise to the mid $7K range if he gets consistent minutes and some starts. Take advantage of his low price while you can.
Other Forwards To Consider: Jamie Vardy (Leicester, $9,800), Romelu Lukaku (Everton, $9,800), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal, $11,700), Olivier Giroud (Arsenal, $8,300), Andre Ayew (Swansea, $7,900), Troy Deeney (Watford, $5,800)