EPL Top Plays: Saturday, September 12th

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2015-09-14 15:31:35

After a week layoff from the English Premier League (EPL) we’re back with another edition of the EPL top plays. This week features a very intriguing slate (that I think is the best we’ve had this season) with six matches that should be fun to watch and monitor. There is an early matchup with Chelsea visiting Everton that is not included in the main game slate, so it will not be included in this write-up. However, I believe that Chelsea should come away as winners in this one, but expect goals from both sides, so look for players such as Barkley, Lukaku from Everton to have good outings and for Costa, Pedro and Hazard to deliver some solid performances for Chelsea.

As for the main slate, there are six matches, five early ones with the regular 9 AM (Central) start time, and one later match between Manchester United hosting Liverpool. The matches should be fun to watch with Arsenal and Manchester City as the two clear-cut favorites and the other three being fairly even as evidenced by the bookie odds in the table below.

Home	Away	Home Odds	Away Odds	Draw Odds
ARS	STO	1.307	11.96	5.83
CPL	MCI	5.78	1.632	4.26
NOR	BOU	2.389	3.18	3.49
WBA	SOT	3.17	2.49	3.3
WAT	SWA	2.82	2.719	3.35
MUN	LIV	2.02	4.09	3.56

With this being matchday five, that means we’ve covered a total of 4 matches for each team and we have what amounts to the beginnings of a solid foundation to understand what each team will look like through the first part of the season. As such, numbers will begin to trend towards their season long means and our week to week variation will be easier to predict.

Opponent Stats

Opponent	Opp. Chances Created	Opp. Goal Attempts	Opp. Touches – Final 3rd	Opp. Crosses
NEW	15.25	18.75	267.75	23.00
WHM	11.75	15.00	223.00	21.50
CPL	14.25	18.75	220.75	21.75
WBA	12.50	15.75	215.50	20.00
SUN	16.50	19.75	213.25	24.00
WAT	10.00	12.00	203.50	23.50
LIV	9.50	12.75	200.50	20.50
EVE	12.75	16.00	194.00	24.25
LEI	8.75	11.25	181.00	24.50
AVL	8.75	10.75	174.50	19.25
CHE	12.50	15.75	174.25	22.75
SOT	7.50	9.75	167.25	24.50
STO	9.25	14.00	164.75	19.00
BOU	6.25	9.75	164.00	16.50
SWA	6.75	9.00	163.75	17.75
TOT	7.75	11.25	163.25	17.50
MCI	6.25	9.00	160.75	17.50
NOR	9.25	11.50	150.00	19.00
ARS	6.75	8.75	138.00	15.25
MUN	6.00	7.50	114.75	13.00

Looking at the table above, we see that of the teams that are playing Saturday, Crystal Palace seem to be the team that allows the most Goal Attempts to opponents along with the most touches in the final third. These two stats combined provide us with a clue that Palace could be a team to target. And given that they are playing against Manchester City this week, who have looked superb, I won’t hesitate to target them. One caveat, though, is that Palace has been playing excellent football in this short season and just last week defeated Chelsea on the road so they will not be afraid of Manchester City on their home soil.

The other takeaway from this table is that Southampton vs West Brom should be interesting for fantasy purposes. Southampton is one of the highest crossing teams, but it also is one of the teams that allows the most crosses to its opponent so far this season. That should push us to expect that they’ll push West Brom to the outside and force them to deliver the ball in from the wings which will over value the wingers for West Brom and potentially make solid plays out of offensive players from both teams, with the exception of one caveat which I will cover later in the article.

With these two tidbits, let’s take a look at this week’s matchups.

Goalkeepers

Petr Cech, Arsenal $5,500 – This is a week with three very obvious top-dog goalkeepers. Cech comes in with the best matchup amongst these expensive options (all priced $5,300 and above). Arsenal is coming off two weeks of clean sheets and after an early scare following a 2-0 defeat at the hands of West Ham in the opening match of the season they seem to have their midfield and defense in order. With a 4-2-3-1 formation and Coquelin and Cazorla playing the double pivot role, they’ve provided the great supplemental defense to allow for the full backs to venture forward. This in turn has protected Cech from roaming attacks from his opponents and this week, should lead to another clean sheet.

Maarten Stekelenburg, Southampton $4,700 – If you paid attention to my intro paragraph you’ll know that I said that I expect some fantasy goodness from the Southampton-West Brom matchup. However, there is a caveat that I said could put a monkey wrench in that expectation. Southampton have a new central defender in Virgil Van Dijk who is a transfer window acquisition from Celtic. Van Dijk is a very tall defender who has had a good history in Champions League and Europa League in terms of aerial battles won. Why does this matter? The only way I can see West Brom threatening Southampton this weekend is through an aerial attack from the wings since that’s what Southampton wants them to do. However, with this shiny new defensive weapon (if Ron Koeman wants to use him right away) I predict that any attempt off the wings by WBA will be thwarted and by the time they vary their approach it might be too late. This puts Stekelenburg as a pure GPP option as he will have to rely on his defense to keep him safe. He can still concede a goal and I wouldn’t shy from taking some players from WBA against him. However, for GPPs I’ll have some exposure to Stekelenburg.

Other Goalkeepers to consider: Joe Hart (Manchester City, $5,400), David De Gea (Manchester United, $5,300), John Ruddy (Norwich, $4,300)

Defenders

Cedric Soares, Southampton $4,900 – As usual, the defender crops are very thin for EPL as we rely primarily on defenders who venture forward on the wings (known as fullbacks) and deliver crosses/create chances/shots. These actions are what elevate a players value from a GPP play to a cash game play. Cedric, in particular, has been very consistent in his runs forward for Southampton and those have shown week in and week out that you can expect 1-2 shots, 1-2 chances created and a few crosses. This all leads me to believe that targeting Cedric in your cash lineups as well as your GPP games as he carries the upside necessary to build a great team.

Aleksandar Kolarov, Manchester City $6,700 – The most expensive defender on the slate is almost a must play if you can fit him into your teams. But that’s where the difficulty lies as he is priced as an advanced midfielder at a price point of $6,700, however, he is eligible for a clean sheet bonus (5 points on DK.) This places Kolarov in rare territory for defenders as no other defender carries as much upside while also carrying as high of a floor. Moreover, City have looked as the premier class in the league in the early going of the season which makes the job on defense easier as Kolarov can venture forward and continue his solid outings fantasy-wise. I don’t expect Kolarov to drop off and I predict that he’s going to continue approaching double digit scoring with the chance to hit a goal or an assist.

Other Defenders I Like: Simon Francis (Bournemouth, $3,700), Joe Gomes (Liverpool, $3,700), Nathaniel Clyne (Liverpool, $5,200), Nacho Monreal (Arsenal, $4,800), Kyle Naughton (Swansea, $4,000), Neil Taylor (Swansea, $3,900), Allan Nyom (Watford, $3,500)

Midfielders

Mesut Ozil, Arsenal $8,300 – Ozil has been very good for the gunners so far this season and he enters this matchup against a Stoke that has allowed plenty of good performances from attacking midfielders including Morrison, Nathan Redmond, and Christian Eriksen. I expect that Ozil will continue that trend and with his early season performances for Arsenal he should be on your radar as a safe play if Arsenal Stoke has been less than average defensively with opponents having 14 goal attempts per game with an average of 164 touches in the final third per game.

Nathan Redmond, Norwich $5,800 – Redmond is coming off his worst game in the Premier League so far with just 2 points on DraftKings after his team lost handily to Southampton before the international break. Norwich have an opportunity to rebound now battling a fellow newly promoted team in Bournemouth. Redmond is a very talented midfielder who pushes the ball forward and delivers crosses. So far this season if you ignore the last match he has two goals and an assist which includes the opener against Crystal Palace where he came off the bench and scored a goal for his team.

Dusan Tadic, Southampton $9,300 – Last season Tadic had a stretch where he was an instant cash play with double digits on crosses and shots alone. Last match against Norwich, Tadic ended up with 36 points with two goals. If you remove the goals (10 points a piece) he actually would have had 16 points if they were both saved which is a solid outing for a cash lineup. The only concern with him is his price which is the second highest point total at midfield. Expect Tadic to be slightly low owned but he should have double digit floor and 20+ point upside.

Other Midfielders I Like: Memphis (Manchester United, $9.700), Jonjo Shelvey (Swansea, $6,200), Bakary Sako (Crystal Palace, $5,500), Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke, $5,200), Aaron Ramsey (Arsenal, $7,100), James McClean (WBA, $3,200), Matthew Ritchie (Bournemouth, $5,200)

Forwards

Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal $10,400 – We have a plethora of forwards to choose from this week. We however, can’t roster all of them, so we have to pick one of them. Sanchez is the most intriguing as he has three matches with 50 or more touches in the final third to go along with 20 goal attempts. But what Alexis is missing from his resume this season is goals. While Sanchez hasn’t scored any goals this season his touches and opportunities are tops in the league which allows me to believe that he will find his goals sooner rather than later. Rostering Sanchez this week should yield good results and you can expect variance to catch up with him.

Bafetembi Gomis, Swansea $8,000 – The top scorer in the premier league (joint with Callum Wilson and Riyadh Mahrez) has a goal for every match he has played, and this week he is facing Watford, who have allowed 12 goal attempts per game along with 23.5 crosses. With Gomis being the beast that he has been, he’s almost guaranteed to be involved in this offense. Gomis is playing at a level that is very tough to stop and he seems very determined every time he touches the ball to score a goal or at least get a good shot off. I don’t expect many defenders on this Watford team to be able to match up with him and I believe that he has a good shot to provide some scoring for a slightly cheaper price than the rest of the top priced forwards.

Cameron Jerome, Norwich $5,800 – This is a pick that is pending the starting lineup. Jerome and Callum Wilson should both be considered on your teams, but Wilson’s salary is too high. Jerome has his starting position threatened by the new signing of *Dieumerci Mbokani (Norwich, $4,000) who comes in after having some tremendous success in the Belgian league over the last few seasons Mbokani comes to this team looking to steal the starting job and to score some goals and prove himself in the EPL which is miles ahead of the Belgian league. If Jerome does indeed start I trust him to get some shots off against this Bournemouth defense, even though the match will be tightly contested because neither team wants to lose, I do expect some defensive breakdowns and some potential for the strikers in each team to get some opportunities.