EPL Top Plays: Saturday, September 26th
With six weeks done with the EPL season, we’re starting to notice some trends that are worth examining. Some of these are trends that should hold up throughout the season, while others are outliers that are on the negative side of variance (or the positive), who should see their status change as the season progresses. I will examine all these claims under the guise of statistics in order to remove my personal biases from my analysis as much as possible.
Early Season Myths and Anomalies
•Arsenal are not good offensively, and as a result, you should stay away from Alexis Sanchez – Arsenal have started the season offensively anemic with only three offensive goals on the season (five goals total on the back of two own goals by their opponents.) Excluding last match where they were hounded by Diego Costa’s antics and ended up finishing the match with nine men because of some foolishness, Arsenal have looked quite good this year. They have controlled possession of the ball, out-shot their opponents both home and away, and have avoided fouls while defending relatively well. I posted in the forums my thoughts on Arsenal in general, and Alexis Sanchez in particular, regarding how well he’s been playing and how unlucky he’s been. But more on him later.
•Riyadh Mahrez is a must-play regardless of matchup, and he should be in all your cash lineups until proven otherwise – Despite them running very good over the last month and a half, Leicester have looked very shaky at the back. But what does that do to Mahrez’s fantasy value? He’s been consistently superb every week so far this season. His point totals prove it (he’s scored 35, 23, 23, 3, 23, 23 points this season.) However, looking at his competition, however, they’ve faced weak competition in Sunderland, Bournemouth, Stoke, Aston Villa and West Ham. Last match, Mahrez was on his way to an outing of under 10 points if it weren’t for a penalty kick, as well as a late, improbable comeback from 2-0 down. Do we expect that they’ll repeat that performance against a top squad like Arsenal? Arsenal have been the fifth-best defensive team in terms of opponent goal attempts. They are sixth in terms of opponent touches in the final third. If Mahrez does not have the ball at his feet, he will fail to perform. The matchup with Arsenal will be this team’s first real test, and I expect that Mahrez’s point total will be more pedestrian.
•Southampton are not as good as they were last season – While this may be true, the team is struggling to recapture last season’s early-season form that found them vying for a Europe spot for most of the season. The Saints haven’t been that bad, however, and with a visit from a suddenly struggling Swansea (they lost midweek to Championship side, Hull in Capital One cup), I expect that the Saints will put together a good performance at home for their fans.
•Chelsea are not an elite team, anymore – They certainly don’t look the part of defending champions to start the season, with injuries to Courtois, losses to Everton, Manchester City and Crystal Palace, and finally a three-match ban for Diego Costa (because of you-know-what), The Blues are entering some dangerous territory. Not to mention the turmoil at the back with Terry’s role uncertainty, the John Stones saga, Ivanovic, Matic and Fabregas looking like they’ve aged 40 years since last spring. The prospects for Chelsea don’t look very good. However, after back-to-back clean sheets against Maccabi Tel Aviv and Arsenal, Chelsea look to have turned around some of their performances. Chelsea completely dominated possession against Arsenal (even before the first red card), and had several chances to take the lead and were clearly the better team. With a matchup against Newcastle this weekend, and without their striker, look for players like Hazard to step up and deliver a top performance. More importantly, look for Chelsea to go back to looking like an elite team (and with the crowds shying away from them in their lineups, and the match being late, they don’t look like such a bad contrarian stack).
Team Odds
| Home | Away | Home odds | Away Odds | Draw Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOT | MCI | 4.1 | 1.943 | 3.82 |
| LEI | ARS | 4.3 | 1.884 | 3.9 |
| LIV | AVL | 1.471 | 7.86 | 4.68 |
| MUN | SUN | 1.241 | 14.96 | 6.72 |
| SOT | SWA | 2.08 | 4 | 3.45 |
| STO | BOU | 2.58 | 2.929 | 3.43 |
| WHM | NOR | 2.19 | 3.54 | 3.56 |
| NEW | CHE | 5.45 | 1.684 | 4.109 |
| WAT | CPL | 2.54 | 3.03 | 3.37 |
| WBA | EVE | 3.11 | 2.53 | 3.29 |
Opponent Statistics
| Opponent | Opp. Chances Created | Opp. Goal Attempts | Opp. Touches – Final 3rd | Opp. Crosses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHM | 13.67 | 17.67 | 264.17 | 29.50 |
| NEW | 14.50 | 17.83 | 239.00 | 20.17 |
| CPL | 16.67 | 20.83 | 233.50 | 22.50 |
| WBA | 13.00 | 15.50 | 221.83 | 24.00 |
| SUN | 15.50 | 19.00 | 218.50 | 24.00 |
| LIV | 9.17 | 11.83 | 202.00 | 19.17 |
| WAT | 9.83 | 12.00 | 200.17 | 25.83 |
| EVE | 12.33 | 15.17 | 196.83 | 25.00 |
| STO | 11.67 | 16.50 | 193.67 | 19.67 |
| AVL | 10.83 | 13.50 | 190.00 | 20.33 |
| SOT | 7.33 | 11.00 | 179.50 | 21.33 |
| LEI | 9.33 | 12.17 | 178.83 | 23.67 |
| SWA | 9.50 | 12.17 | 175.83 | 18.83 |
| NOR | 11.17 | 13.00 | 174.33 | 20.17 |
| ARS | 9.33 | 11.67 | 168.67 | 14.33 |
| BOU | 6.50 | 10.00 | 165.17 | 16.67 |
| TOT | 8.33 | 12.00 | 164.67 | 19.83 |
| CHE | 11.33 | 14.50 | 163.33 | 21.67 |
| MCI | 6.50 | 9.17 | 152.83 | 17.17 |
| MUN | 7.17 | 9.67 | 135.00 | 14.83 |
Goalkeepers
David De Gea, Manchester United $5,600 – Manchester United are facing Sunderland at home, and are in the best spot of any team this week. Sunderland have been pitiful this season, as they’re in the bottom-three in most offensive categories, including shots, crosses, and touches in the final third. Manchester United have started the season very methodically, controlling the pace and possession of every game they’ve been a part of. They don’t allow opponents possession, and they don’t rush things in order to get their offense going. United are going to be uncertain at the back since they’ve lost Luke Shaw for a long period, and if they were facing any opponent other than Sunderland, I wouldn’t put De Gea as my top goalkeeper for this week.
Adrian, West Ham, $5,300 – Yes, he’s another expensive goalkeeper and I had to be talked into rostering him, however, Adrian is a very talented keeper who overcomes a weak back line, and has done so all season (minus his missed games). Norwich have not been world beaters on the road this season with only 10.3 shots per game (three on target). Norwich have looked solid, however, and are a good team who should compete for middle-of-the-table standings. Adrian is a good GPP play, but for cash I would go solely to De Gea and not flinch.
Other Goalkeepers to consider: Simon Mignolet (Liverpool, $5,600), Asmir Begovic (Chelsea, $5,100), Brad Guzan (Aston Villa, $3,700)
Defenders
Matteo Darmian, Manchester United $4,500 – With Manchester United missing a couple of key defenders due to injury, Ashley Young and Daley Blind are expected to fill in the left and center back positions for Rojo and Shaw. The good news is they’re playing a very weak Sunderland side, so a clean sheet is probable. The other piece of information that is vital, is that Darmian will be matched with Borini and M’Villa, who both are sub par defenders, while Young will be lined up across from Lens who has been Sunderland’s best player, and that could end up giving Darmian the edge in terms of matchup which we can exploit for our lineups.
Alberto Moreno, Liverpool, $4,400 – There isn’t a high-priced (greater than $5K) defender that is worth breaking the bank for this week with the exception of Ivanovic, but as mentioned earlier, he’s looked old and slow, and the consistency just isn’t there. So we’ll focus our defensive targets on the mid-tier with Alberto Moreno of Liverpool. The Reds are hosting Aston Villa in this matchup this week and are heavy favorites. Their defense has looked shaky at times and they could concede a goal, but they should get the win. Moreno should be able to get up front and assist on the attack and provide some periphery stats to go along with any defensive bonuses he can get. Moreno has only played a single match with the full 90 minutes, against Norwich and he managed eight crosses and created six chances resulting in an assist. I’m not saying you should expect this output every week, but Moreno is a safe bet for a high floor this weekend.
Other Defenders to consider: Simon Francis (Bournemouth, $4,200), Branislav Ivanovic (Chelsea, $5,600), Cedric (Southampton, $4,500), Aaron Cresswell (West Ham, $5,200), Carl Jenkinson (West Ham, $4,400), Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa, $4,400), Daryl Janmaat (Newcastle, $3,700), Russell Martin (Norwich, $3,700)
Midfielders
Eden Hazard, Chelsea $10,200 – As mentioned earlier, Chelsea have begun to turn it around a little bit. Hazard’s last match saw him get a season-high in goal attempts, shots, chances created, fouls drawn, as well as a goal. This was not a coincidence, as he also had a season-high in touches and touches in the final third. (70% of his touches were in Arsenal’s territory). With Diego Costa out for three matches, and with the roles and Remy and Falcao being in dispute (as to who starts), I expect Hazard to be the top-scoring midfielder this week.
Dimitri Payet, West Ham $8,300 – West Ham have had several great performances so far this season with wins away at Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal, but they’ve also had some duds, including two losses to Leicester (in league and cup 2-1) and a loss to Bournemouth (3-4). In all those matches, you could count on one thing: Payet using some brilliance to give his team a chance. He’s had some good statistical outputs as well, including double-digit cross games, some goals, assists, and shots. Payet is a good cash play that has a nice floor based on shots and crosses, and a high ceiling with goals and assists.
Marc Pugh, Bournemouth $4,400 – There are not a lot of obvious, cheap options at the midfield this week, but you may find yourself in the position having to roster one or two players in this price range. I like Marc Pugh as a below-the-radar, under-owned option that can be used in both cash and GPPs. Pugh played his first full matchup against Sunderland last weekend and managed 11 fantasy points without any goals or assists. With 43 touches in the final third, he was very active for his team against a weak opponent. Of course, this week he’s facing a Stoke team that is better defensively, but there are some weak links. Pugh plays on the opposite side of the pitch from Ritchie, who is a great play most weeks. However, against Stoke, Ritchie will be defended by Whelan who is a great defensive midfielder (averages three tackles while only committing 0.2 tackles per game). Pugh, on the other hand, will be shadowed by Van Ginkel, who commits plenty of fouls and is just an average tackler/defender.
Other Midfielders to consider: Memphis (Manchester United, $10,100), Riyadh Mahrez (Leicester, $10,000), Dusan Tadic (Southampton, $9,700), Philippe Coutinho (Liverpool, $7,900), Oscar (Chelsea, $7,100), Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke, $6,100), Jefferson Montero (Swansea, $5,700)
Forwards
Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal $10,800 – I gave a paragraph earlier about why Sanchez is an important player to get exposure to each and every week. Especially in this Arsenal offense, Sanchez is a vital cog in the machine that keeps on chugging and attacking. Unfortunately, so far this season, their attack has been without much bite as they have failed to score many goals. Sanchez, in particular, has been quite toothless, and that could be fatigue after playing in Copa America over the summer, and it could just be bad luck. I will say that I don’t believe it is fatigue, as Sanchez has been very active all over the pitch with the number of touches. His conversion rate (goals divided by shots) is much lower than it is for his career (15% career conversion rate across all competitions, on a sample size of over 500 shots) this season. With almost five shots a game, he should have somewhere between four to six goals. Needless to say, positive regression is coming for Alexis, and this week against a Leicester side that is weak at the back could be ideal.
Anthony Martial, Manchester United $7,800 – Martial is on a tear right now, scoring goals in three out of four matches since arriving at Old Trafford. He’s expected to start once again for the Red Devils as they play hosts to Sunderland. We’ve documented time and time again about how bad Sunderland are, so I won’t go into it anymore. I will warn, however, that Martial is playing at an attacking rate that far exceeds his career average while he was at Monaco and Lyon. It’s unrealistic to expect him to sustain this rate of shots and goal scoring, however, I’ll keep rostering him while he remains the sole striker for Manchester United, and while he faces squads such as Sunderland.
Danny Ings, Liverpool $6,800 – The former Burnley Striker lost a lot of his value when he moved to Liverpool this summer. The 23-year-old now finds himself starting and playing consistent minutes after the Benteke injury catapulted him as a starter alongside Daniel Sturridge(Liverpool, $7,600). Sturridge is the more talented forward, however, Ings is cheaper and is in form currently, with two goals in his two matches since last weekend.
Other Forward to consider: Sadio Mane (Southampton, $9,200), Bojan Krkic (Stoke, $4,800), Pedro (Chelsea, $8,300), Theo Walcott (Arsenal, $7,600), Jamie Vardy (Leicester, $8,600), Graziano Pelle (Southampton, $9,300), Bafetimbi Gomis (Swansea, $8,100), Callum Wilson (Bournemouth, $8,100), Papiss Cisse (Newcastle, $7,500), Radamel Falcao (Chelsea, $7,300), Loic Remy (Chelsea, $6,300)