EPL Week 3 Plays: Saturday, August 22nd
I am a Chelsea fan.
I am not ashamed of it, I will never try to hide it, and I will not let my fandom affect my DFS rosters.
Well, two out of three of the above statements are true. Last Sunday, I avoided rostering any Manchester City players as they were taking on my beloved Blues in a match that I objectively knew that Chelsea would have no chance, but I subjectively decided to take Azpilicueta and avoid the City attack. Well, that didn’t turn out so well and I had my first losing EPL slate of the season so far. Aguero scored, Fernandinho scored, and Sterling looks like he’s figuring out his role on that team. But it’s ok, we trudge on and learn from our mistakes, and the first mistake I will make sure to not repeat this season Don’t let your heart get in the way of who you pick for your DFS teams.
The other important note to take into account for EPL in August is that most teams are still finding their bearings. Defenses are slower, and lots of players are not fit yet after a layoff in the summer. Teams have changed from last season as well, some who are good on defense didn’t show that potential last season, others who were great on defense are showing a diminished ability to start the season, and others who were great remain great, and finally, some were horrible remain horrible. So how do we navigate this ever-changing soccer landscape and how do we figure out which teams and matches are worth targeting our players from? The trick will be multi-fold. Examining sportsbook lines both American and abroad. Watching games, and targeting defenses that don’t do much in terms of stopping the opponent from taking shots.
This week, the focus will be on three teams, Swansea, Leicester and Crystal Palace. All three have merit to target, and all three have the potential to put up multiple goals. So let’s take a look at the individual players that I will target this week position by position.
Goalkeepers
Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea $4,900 – At its core, this should be your starting point for most rosters your build this weekend, and you can switch off of Swansea as a differentiation. However, for cash games, taking Fabianski is a solid option as he will be highly owned, and he should be in line for a win and a clean sheet. They are playing a Sunderland side that has looked horrible to start the season and have managed to concede 7 goals, and their offense hasn’t looked any better. Their only viable player at front is Jeremain Lens and he’s a good option who managed 12 fantasy points last week despite not scoring or assisting. Fabianski should have an easy day, and he has enough skill to make a save or two if Sunderland do in fact manage a shot on target that tests him.
Darren Randolph, West Ham $3,000 – There are only three REAL options that I will consider for goalkeeper this week, Fabianski and McCarthy are the two expensive options, and Randolph is my cheap option. Randolph is getting a spot start due to the suspension of first team goalkeeper Adrian for this week’s matchup. Randolph is a talented Irish keeper who has had international call-ups and last season started for Birmingham city in the Championship. He will have to make some saves, but he’s facing a side that he’s familiar with in Bournemouth (he faced them in the Championship the last two seasons) and should deliver solid return for his very cheap price.
Other Goalkeepers I Like: Alex McCarthy (Crystal Palace, $5,100), Jack Butland (Stoke, $3,800, GPP option)
Defenders
Aaron Cresswell, West Ham, $5,600 – With savings at goalkeeper if you take Randolph, you can pair him with his two full backs Jenkinson and Cresswell. Alternatively if you want to save on one of your defender spots and can only afford to spend up on a single defender spot, then Cresswell is the player to target. Jenkinson is facing the tougher defender in Charlie Daniels while Cresswell will have to contend with Simon Francis who tends to assist in the attack. Cresswell should have the easier time and should find himself with an open lane to make plays for his teammates and should get auxiliary points to help raise his fantasy floor.
Pape Souare, Crystal Palace $3,200 – Crystal Palace have a matchup with Aston Villa this week and with everybody targeting Joel Ward (he scored last week) because of recency bias. Souare will be stationed on the left side against Bacuna while Ward will be opposite of Amavi who is a very good defender. Look for Souare to venture forward more often this week and assist with his team’s offense.
Neil Taylor, Swansea $3,900 – Another cheap option this week is Neil Taylor of Swansea who face a very weak Sunderland squad. I expect Swansea to control the action for a good portion of the 90 minutes and for Taylor and his fellow full back Kyle Naughton (SWA, $3,700) are both good options with Taylor being the better option due to his involvement when the action shifts in the opponent’s final third.
Other Defenders I Like: Carl Jenkinson (WHU, $5,300), Kyle Naughton (SWA, $3,700)
Midfielders
Jefferson Montero, Swansea $5,200 – It has been tough to narrow down my midfield options this week, and about four of them come from the Swans. However, my top play is Jefferson Montero as he’s been very active on offense with 6 total chances created, 12 total crosses, 3 shots and 3 chances created and 1 assist. Montero is the type of player who can see his success translate from week to week and while Jonjo Shelvey (SWA, $6,400) and Gylfi Sigurdsson (SWA, $7,800) both having two good games to start the season, the attention will be on them leaving Montero as the cheaper option at the loaded midfield.
Dimitri Payet, West Ham United $7,500 – Payet went nuts last weekend against Leicester with 14 crosses, and he was extremely active with 47 touches in the final third in a home matchup. He has a goal and an assist on the season and will look to add to that tally this weekend against the newcomers from Bournemouth. I predict that Payet will be a great cash play with a consistent floor that should include a few crosses, shots and fouls drawn. He will also be in the mix for goals scored as West Ham are predicted to win.
Jason Puncheon, Crystal Palace $6,400 – The majority of the plays you will see will be focused on Tottenham or Leicester, and the selection of midfielders from that matchup are all in a great spot, including Riyadh Mahrez (LEI, $7,900), Marc Albrighton (LEI, $6,900), and Chrisitan Eriksen (TOT, $8,900). However, targeting the Crystal Palace midfield is a good idea as they will be underowned and I expect them to have a multiple goal match against Aston Villa, with Jason Puncheon being extremely active for his team in the opponents final third. In the last two weeks, Puncheon has led his team in chances created, crosses and touches in the final third. That kind of activity should lead to a productive day that may translate to a goal or an assist for the Eagles midfielder.
Other Midfielders I Like: Riyadh Mahrez (Leicester, $7,900), Marc Albrighton (Leicester, $6,900), Christian Erikesen (Tottenham, $8,900), Jonjo Shelvey (Swansea, $6,400), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Swansea, $7,800), Matt Ritchie (Bournemouth, $5,000), Nathan Redmond (Norwich, $5,800), Wes Hoolahan (Norwich, $4,400)
Forwards
Bafetimbi Gomis, Swansea $6,900 – The price on the Swansea forward is still too low and he is entering this weekend with arguably the best matchup. Gomis is a talented forward who uses his strength and persistence to score goals and get himself in position to get easy shots from great spots that have a high likelihood of scoring. His opponent this week is Sunderland who have had historical trouble stopping physical forwards who fight through possession. I expect Gomis to get several shots this week and to be one of the likeliest goal scorers for the weekend.
Diafra Sakho, West Ham $7,500 – With West Ham as a big favorite it is easy to look at Sakho as a great option at forward. If you choose to spend up, then the option would be Harry Kane who is still looking to score this season and may see that opportunity this weekend. Sakho on the season has not scored a goal yet, but he has had five goal scoring opportunities. On the season Sakho has half his touches occurring in the opponents final third which lead to the most touches that lead to crosses, shots and scoring chances.
Mame Biram Diouf, Stoke $6,000 – Another great option for a cheap price is Diouf who is in a great spot with Stoke hosting Norwich this week as Stoke enter this matchup as slight underdogs due to them playing on the road. Look for Diouf to battle the defense to get some shots off, as he managed five shots on goal with a goal scored on the road against Tottenham. Diouf should be able to repeat this performance or close to it with the opponent being the newly promoted Norwich.
Other Forwards I Like: Harry Kane (Tottenham, $10,500), Jamie Vardy (Leicester, $7,500), Connor Wickham (Sunderland, $6,800), Andre Ayew (Swansea, $6,300), Callum Wilson (Bournemouth, $5,500), Cameron Jerome (Norwich, $6,200)