EPL Week 4 Top Plays: Saturday, August 29th

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2015-09-01 12:10:38

With the season in full swing, we have our fourth weekend of EPL soccer, and we finally have a slate with a few decent teams to target. The big DraftKings slate allows us to get a bit more differentiation, as there are more top players to target with more big games coming up. This week features seven matches in the main DraftKings slate on Saturday and nine if you play on Mondogoal for the Saturday and Sunday slate. I’ll be ignoring the early morning Arsenal-Newcastle match, as it is not featured in any of the major tournaments, and will focus my article today just on the Saturday matches since those are what is offered on the big GPPs for today.

This week we see a lot of big home favorites with teams like Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City hosting some smaller clubs that the oddsmakers are not favoring. The other four matches feature home teams that are also favorites, but not quite as heavy as the big three of the week.

One thing I’ll try to start doing in my articles as the season progresses is show a glimpse of the stats that I’ve been collecting that help me make my decisions on which teams to target and which teams to avoid. And, one of the biggest set of statistics that I believe goes overlooked is opponent stats. You’ll see the table below showing opponent stats for all 20 teams and what kind of performance each team has allowed their opponent so far on the season.

For me, the biggest take away from the first three weeks is that these stats have to be taken with a little bit of a grain of salt, for they are heavily dependent on who the team has faced so far. Right now we see certain teams such as Chelsea and Manchester City on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to how their opponents have performed. City have had three dominant performances that have seen them top the table with nine points and eight goals scored without conceding a goal. Meanwhile, Chelsea have had a rough go at it defensively, as they have allowed a total of seven goals while only scoring five. These numbers won’t carry over for the whole season; we’ll see teams adjust as their schedule starts to get easier and September and October roll around with players getting in form and finding their rhythm.

The most interesting observation that I’ll keep an eye on so far this season is Norwich, and while they’re not in play for Saturday, it is important to keep an eye on them as right now they are first in opponent crosses, and second in opponent chances created, goal attempts and opponent final third touches. Their opponents so far have been Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Stoke City. Everybody knows that Sunderland have been terrible defensively so far this season and even worse offensively. However, Crystal Palace and Stoke have been somewhere in the middle of the pack when it comes to these statistics. While Norwich has shown the ability to play some good defense and limit their opponents, they still have not met any Premier League heavy weights, so we’ll have to see how this goes down over the course of the season. For now though, their next few fixtures all appear favorable, so they may be worth considering and targeting in the next few weeks.

For now though, let’s worry about this week

Goalkeepers

Simon Mignolet, Liverpool $5,200 – This week the choice for a top keeper is tough as the three top teams are all facing opponents who haven’t been the greatest offensively. Joe Hart is too expensive for almost $800 more on DraftKings than Mignolet, and facing a Watford team that has averaged 13 shots a game and 190 touches in the opponents final third, I think the risk is higher that Hart will lose his bid for a fourth straight clean sheet than Mignolet for the same feat. Also worth considering on the high end is Thibaut Courtois who saved a penalty kick last week and preserved the first win for the defending champs. I believe Courtois is a decent choice this week, but he’s facing a tougher opponent in Crystal Palace who have scored six goals in three matches off of 12.67 shots per game, and the defense is a bit disjointed to start the season so it would be wise to avoid Courtois for the time being.

Jack Butland, Stoke $4,600 – There aren’t many cheap options I would trust at keeper this week, I would consider Costel Pantilimon of Sunderland, but they’ve looked horrible defensively, however, they’re facing an opponent in Aston Villa who have managed very few shots and have not had much possession so far this season in their first three games. I do however, believe that targeting the West Brom offense that has only managed 10 shots a match and less than a goal so far is wise. While there is risk with Rondon and Berahino (if he plays), I believe the risk is worth it for the price and the potential saves and/or clean sheet bonus.

Other Goalkeepers I Like: Joe Hart (Manchester City $5,800), Costel Pantilimon (Sunderland, $4,400), Brad Guzan (Aston Villa, $4,500), Tim Howard (Everton, $4,200), Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea, $5,100)

Defenders

Simon Francis, Bournemouth $3,400 – I was surprised when I Saw that Francis’ price was so low for two reasons. So far this season he has been very involved with his teams’ offensive attack and has pushed forward, and while he has not registered any shots yet, he plays on the same side as Matt Ritchie (the right flank) and uses that position to deliver crosses and create chances to the tune of two chances a game. These have so far resulted in a single assist, and for his price, he makes a decent cash option. The other reason I was shocked at Francis’ low price is his opponent. Leicester so far have allowed opponents to deliver the most crosses so far which plays great for a team that likes to spread play like Bournemouth does.

Kyle Walker, Tottenham $4,400 – Look, if you can roster Alexander Kolarov and have a team that you’re happy with, then you should, Kolarov has been a tremendous play for City so far this season but his price is so prohibitive at $6,300 that it makes fielding a team that I am happy with very difficult. Saving the salary and pivoting down to a play like Kyle Walker can prove to be beneficial. Aside from his own goal against Manchester United, he’s had a good season defensively so far. He’s also been able to contribute offensively (which is what we care about for fantasy purposes) by crossing the ball, drawing fouls and taking some shots. Walker’s price can help you get some of the higher priced forwards and midfielders into your lineups.

Other Defenders I Like: Aleksandar Kolarov (Manchester City, $6,300), Nathaniel Clyne (Liverpool, $5,200), Cesar Azpilicueta (Chelsea, $4,800), Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa, $3,300), Erik Pieters (Stoke, $3,100), Charlie Daniels (Bournemouth, $2,800), Glen Johnson (Stoke, $4,600)

Midfielders

Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke $3,900 – There isn’t much to say about Shaqiri’s performance from last week other than he was spectacular for Stoke and was their most active player in the opponent’s final third leaving him with an assist, a shot, three crosses and four fouls drawn. His 13 fantasy point haul against Norwich (who have been one of the better defensive teams so far) means that Stoke is establishing himself as a high floor play in the midfield. For such a low price, you can afford whatever score he manages as he’s guaranteed to be in a position to success against West Brom.

Eden Hazard, Chelsea $10,300 – His price is still high, and his performances haven’t caught up with his reputation and his skill level. While he hasn’t lit up the world with his shots, he did manage an assist last week to teammate Pedro, and oversaw the Chelsea 3-2 victory that was the defending champions’ first of the season. Lots of people will not roster Hazard and will focus on Pedro or Costa if they want a piece of the Chelsea offense, however, I believe that taking Hazard will be a beneficial move for GPPs as he will find himself in the middle of all the action and I wouldn’t be surprised if they manage to get him going with some shots as he’s only been a set-up man so far.

Other Midfielders I Like: Riyad Mahrez (Leicester, $8,700), Marc Albrighton (Leicester, $7,300), Matthew Ritchie (Bournemouth, $5,000), David Silva (Manchester City, $9,000), Jeremain Lens (Sunderland, $5,700), Jack Grealish (Aston Villa, $4,300), Philip Coutinho (Liverpool, $7,500), Ross Barkley (Everton, $7,700), Nacer Chadli (Tottenham, $6,500)

Forwards

Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $11,100 – Along with Pedro, I believe Aguero will be one of the highest owned forwards this week, and for good reason. City are huge favorites with Aguero leading the attack and being their front man who they trust to put the ball in the back of the net, and he’s very good at it as well. With this match against newly promoted Watford, I expect City to control the ball and to manage to score more than two goals and for Aguero to be right in the middle of it. Target him and expect that his performance will be a positive one regardless if he scores or not as he should get a few shots that lead to a high scoring day.

Pedro, Chelsea $5,000 – It’s very tough to find a better value this week than Pedro. Like Shaqiri earlier, he’s criminally underpriced, and while I don’t believe he’ll put up the same type of score that he did last week, I do believe that he’s going to be extremely overowned that you’ll want to have him if you play any cash games because if he does manage a score or assist you don’t want to fall far behind the pack. He’s going to get touches and shots and maybe even create chances for his teammates. What more could you ask for at such a low price?

Other Forwards I Like: Christian Benteke (Liverpool, $9,500), Jose Rondon (West Brom, $4,500), Diego Costa (Chelsea, $9,700), Romelu Lukaku (Everton, $9,600), Mame Diouf (Stoke, $6,500), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool, $5,900), Callum Wilson (Bournemouth, $6,800), Troy Deeney (Watford, $5,700), Rudy Gestede (Aston Villa, $4,500)