EPL Week 7 Breakdown
Welcome to another week of Football (ok, soccer). This week I’m trying something different, I’ll be going through each game and trying to break it down team by team. If you have any suggestions to how to improve this piece moving forward let me know and I’ll do my best to take those into consideration. This week has several key games that should be fun to pick from and go between. Make sure to follow me on twitter @DFS_hambazaza and keep an eye on starting lineups both Saturday and Sunday morning. Good luck.
Hull vs Crystal Palace
Hull enters this game winless in their last 5 matches in the premiership having lost in three matches and drawn in two. Their games haven’t been without drama though as each of their last 6 games featured at least 3 goals scored with their latest at home to Manchester City featuring six goals scored in total. Hull also enters this match missing their Goalkeeper Allan McGregor, Steve Harper should play in his place.
Crystal Palace is coming off a big win at home against Leicester where they scored two goals and allowed none. Overall, they have collected 8 points in their last 6 games with 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. The two sides are closely matched and I don’t see much separating them. I will however avoid both teams’ defenses as I don’t trust them to not make mistakes.
Goal Keepers:
Steve Harper: In his last match, Harper manned the goal against West Brom Albion in the League cup fixture that saw him concede three goals with two in the last 3 minutes to lose the game. WBA were able to shoot 16 times with 6 of those on target. Harper only was able to stop 3 of those and the team in general lost its composure with the game on the line. The chances of Hull actually recording a clean sheet are real slim and I would not roster the goal keeper or any defender for the purposes of a clean sheet.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Julian Speroni: He currently has two clean sheets to his name, but he also allowed two or more goals in his other four games in the premiership this season. Speroni is a cheap option that is playing on the road, He’s also playing a Hull team that has scored 9 times in 6 games, I don’t expect much from him, but he’s an outside option for GPPs as he could be very busy with Hull looking to secure their first win since week one.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Other Players
Of the probable starting defenders for Hull Andrew Robertson and Ahmed Elmohamady are likely the candidates you want to look at. Both like to venture up front from the wings and provide crosses to their strikers. So far this season they have 32 and 34 crosses respectively. Speaking of strikers, Hull relies heavily on Jelavic to score goals. He’s provided three of them so far this season. The other striker is Abel Hernandez who has come on hot in the last three games as he’s scored twice. He’s my dark horse for a score this week, Careful with him tho as he has been substituted every time by his manager. The midfield is nothing to marvel at, if you had to pick one to stack with an attacker, I’d go with Quinn as he’s provided some key passes to his offense, but he’s a deep GPP pick if anything.
On Crystal Palace’s side, Their defenders don’t come up the flanks to assist the attack, but they rely heavily on a “down the middle” attack. This is not beneficial for DFS purposes. However, if you were to take a flyer on any single one, I would recommend Scott Dann who this season has 2 assists and averages 2 accurate long balls a game feeding the forwards. The midfield has Mile Jedinak who has scored twice for CP, he should be part of any Crystal Palace midfielder-forward stack you choose as he plays behind the three forwards and has taken an average of 1.2 shots a game. Up front Crystal Palace boasts a trifecta of offensive weapons Puncheon, Campbell and Bolasie. Of those, Jason Puncheon is the most dynamic as he’s scored one goal and assisted on three others. He’s also shot an average of 2.2 shots per game and delivered 32 total crosses on the season in 5 games. Puncheon also provides 2.4 key passes a game increasing his chances at an assist.
Leicester vs Burnley
Leicester comes into this game as a heavy favorite as they play a Burnley side that has struggled following its return to the EPL. Leicester lost their last match to Crystal Palace 2-0, but prior to that they had shocked Manchester United 5-3 in a match that saw them come from behind 3-1. Burnley on the other hand has only scored a single goal this season and recently lost to WBA 4-0. I expect a heavy dose of Leicester today and they might be one of my favorite stacks to target both offense and defense.
Goal Keepers:
Kasper Schmeichel is the heavy favorite here and he’s played some good matches against Burnley in the past. Moreover, He’s held his own against some tough opposition but he still allows some goals. Usually in quick succession as his two goals against Palace came 3 minutes apart, as well as the first two goals against Manchester United were allowed 3 minutes apart. The good news is that Burnley is not that side that can strike fear into the opposition.
Clean Sheet Index = 7
Tom Heaton Heaton has held three opponents scoreless so far, twice at home and once on the road at Crystal Palace. This tells us that the Burnley defense has shown it has the ability, however, last time out, they allowed four goals to WBA and he didn’t have a very respectable showing from the goalkeeper standpoint. I don’t expect much from Heaton this time out as he’s facing a Leicester team looking for a bounce back performance. I’d avoid him and his defenders for the purposes of the CS
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other Players:
Leaonardo Ulloa is the top player to target from this match. The Argentinian forward has 5 goals so far in this campaign and he’s also had 12 shots (2 per game). Moreover, he also has a penchant for getting fouled as he’s been targeted 1.3 times a game by the defenders. If you’re looking for a couple of other midfielders to target in a stack, his compatriot Esteban Cambiasso works great as he’s provided crosses into the box. Other players to take a look at are the two wing defenders Ritchie de Laet and Paul Konchesky both venture up front and in an attacking game I suspect they’ll provide some support.
On the other side of the pitch, Burnley appear to be hapless this season, but they still have *Lukas Jutkiewicz*who shoots plenty on goal. He has not scored yet, and he has a slight injury concern. All indiciations is that he might start, although I’d keep an eye on starting lineups Saturday morning just to be sure. Burnley is suffering from several injuries in the midfield so it’s unclear who will start there, so be very careful picking Burnley players.
Liverpool vs West Bromwich Albion
Liverpool is the favorite in this game, but WBA is not far behind. Liverpool lost in its midweek matchup against Basil, and the manager has been tinkering with the formation and lineup trying to find something that works. That said, Liverpool is at home and while WBA have won their last two matchups, their competition wasn’t that fierce as they’ve beaten Hull and Burnley both at home. This match against a Liverpool team that needs to find its way looks like a spot where WBA will falter.
Goalkeepers:
Simon Mignolet is the favorite here but he hasn’t held a clean sheet since the third week of the season against Tottenham. I do not trust the Liverpool defense to get it together without conceding any goals, its an outside shot of course since they are the favorites. WBA has been playing better and could look to score once or twice here.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Ben Foster playing on away grounds where he’s conceded 3 goals this season (out of 7) and facing a tough Liverpool team that is looking to right the ship. Moreover, the odds are not in his favor this weekend. Foster is shaping up to be a disappointment if you choose to roster him, however, with Liverpool reeling after a midweek loss to Basel and missing several key players, Foster would be an intriguing GPP play at goalie
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Other players:
Liverpools wing defenders Moreno and Manquillo are worth a look as they tend to provide crosses up top and crosses = points in DFS. Balotelli, Sterling and Gerrard are the key players up front to focus on if you are going to look for Liverpool players to lead your team. Lallana, Coutinho and Henderson are also options in the midfield, keep an eye on the lineups tho as Liverpool is suffering injuries and could miss a player or three. If Daniel Sturridge plays he is important to have as part of any Liverpool roster stack.
For WBA Saido Berahino plays the lone striker up top and has 4 goals on 2.8 shots per game so far this season. The striker gets a good chunk of his key passes from James Morrison and Chris Brunt who provide a combined 3.5 accurate crosses a game (60 total all season). Also, worth noting are the wing defenders Pocognoli and Wisdom as they can provide some offensive production as well.
Sunderland vs Stoke City
The game most likely to end in a 0-0 draw this Saturday comes to you in Sunderland’s home stadium. These teams have two or fewer goals in their last 6 meetings and the overwhelming oddsmaker bet is under 2.5 goals scored. This will be a boring game and you’d do good avoiding all offense players in this one.
Goalkeepers:
You can however target the goalkeepers for both these teams as Vito Mannone has recorded two straight clean sheets and allowed a single goal 2 more times. Sunderland have tied in 5 out of their six matches so far this season and this will continue today more likely. Mannone is the fourth most expensive goalkeeper on DraftKings so he’ll cost you a bit, but he’s going to be worth it.
Asmir Begovic – The Stoke City keeper is coming off a match where Newcastle failed to score on him. He only had to produce one save as Newcastle’s shots were mostly off target. I suspect this game may end up 0-0 and Begovic has as much of a chance at a clean sheet at Mannone.
Clean Sheet Index = 7
Other players
If you want to take a flyer on one of these players in a GPP I would recommend taking a look at Connor Wickham and Sebastian Larsson for Sunderland as they’ve combined for the most crosses/shots on goal combination. From Stoke’s vantage point, Victor Moses is a crossing machine as he’s averaged 3.8 crosses per game and that has resulted in two assists. Also, worth keeping an eye on is Peter Crouch who will have to shoulder a heavier load now that Mame Biram Diouf limped off the field in the last time out. Make sure to monitor the starting lineups as there are several concerns from Stoke’s side. Again, these are all GPP options.
Swansea vs Newcastle United
Newcastle has been abysmal this season so far and the chances of their Manager Alan Pardew not being fired are slim especially if Newcastle continues its losing ways as is predicted by the line of this game. Swansea is looking to get back to winning, and they are glad to be back home where they have won 3 of their last 4 games.
Goalkeepers
Lukasz Fabianski the polish goalkeeper has been one of the best keepers in the EPL this season where he’s led his team to three clean sheets and so far has two man of the match awards. Newcastle is a team reeling and on its way to embarrassment and I can’t imagine they will strike any fear into the hearts of the Swansea defense. For that, Fabianski is one of my top targets for a Clean Sheet today
Clean Sheet Index = 8
Tim Krul has only seen two clean sheets this season, one is against lower league side Gillingham in a narrow 1-0 victory in the Capital One Cup, and the other is in the second game of the season versus Aston Villa. Other than that, he’s allowed two or more goals in 4 out of the remaining 5 games this season. I do not see Krul as an option at GK this week.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other Players to target:
So if Krul isn’t going to keep anybody out, who’s going to score? Swansea relies on Wilfried Bony up front, who should see more action as he’s replacing Bafetimbi Gomis up front, Bony has failed to score this season so far, but he’s due as he does take 2.2 shots on goal a game, One of those is bound to make it in. For the defenders, I recommend penciling in Neil Taylor along with Fabianski if you choose to start him at keeper. For the other defender spot, keep an eye out for the lineups as regular starter Angel Rangel has been suspended for picking up a red last time out. The midfield Trio of Dyer, Sigurdsson and Routledge are worth looking at as they each can provide the feed up front and can each score if given the opportunity. Of those three, my favourite would undoubtedly be Nathan Dyer who has scored three times so far this season.
On the other side of the ball, all options aren’t good, their lead striker Emmanuel Riviere hasn’t scored all season and he’s provided 12 total shots, while their leading goal scorer is Papiss Demba Cisse who comes off the bench and hasn’t played a full 90 minutes yet. Don’t expect any fireworks from Newcastle this weekend.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
This game should go Manchester City’s way as they are playing a Villa team that is a little lost at the moment. City is coming off a tough match against Roma in UCL and they are looking to bounce back against a team they should better. Villa has lost its last two games with identical 3-0 scores to Arsenal and Chelsea. Facing a top flight Manchester City team won’t save them from a very similar defeat.
Goalkeepers:
It will be hard to tell which goalkeeper will start for city, However, either Joe Hart or Wily Caballero will do a fine job standing in between the uprights as Aston Villa will have only 8 shots a game and have not scored a ton of goals this season. Keep an eye on the starting lineups as Manuel Pellegrini is trying to trick us all into falling for some sort of trap. However, either of the starters should be fine.
Clean Sheet Index = 7
Brad Guzan has had a tough go at it recently, but this stretch of the schedule would be tough for any goalkeeper. Don’t expect positive points in this matchup as City will look to exact some form of punishment on Villa Saturday.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other players to target:
Manchester City will roll out a 4-4-2 formation with Aguero and Dzeko partnering up front. Samir Nasri is still ruled out leaving James Milner and Jesus Navas vying for a role on the right. Whoever starts has upside. Worth noting is Frank Lampard who has impressed and is cheap on DK, if he does start will be a good value play. If you do decide to stack the defenders with the goalkeeper though, the ones to look at are Pablo Zabaleta*and *Aleksander Kolarov Other GPP options for city are Yaya Toure, Stevan Jotevic and David Silva who can all produce and come at various price points at midfield.
I cannot see myself using any Aston Villa players in this matchup, if you had to take one, I’d recommend Agbonlahor as a GPP player who might be able to sneak out in the counter attack, but don’t risk your cash games on him.
Manchester United vs Everton
United will be without Wayne Rooney and they will try to make due without. Most likely substitute is Juan Mata who has been pushed to the bench with the arrival of Angel Di Maria and Falcao this summer. This should be a high scoring match as both teams have been a bit of a mess on defense lately with United allowing six goals in the last two weeks and Everton not keeping a clean sheet in almost a month. This should be a fun match to watch Sunday morning.
Goalkeepers:
David De Gea As mentioned earlier MUFC’s defense has been terrible lately and that has been the biggest cause for their high Goals Against total this season. Through no fault of De Gea, but if his defenders can’t cover their man, then he can’t be put in a position to stop them.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Tim Howard The human wall has been missing lately, Howard has had several bad performances in a row. Everton were strong defensively last season and without any major changes they have regressed tremendously. This could just be a case of teams figuring them out, or it could be a bad run. Either way, ManU is not the team to test him out against.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Other Players to target:
Manchester United has a big load of weapons Falcao, Robin Van Persie, Juan Mata, and Angel di Maria can all score and can all provide weapons to terrify the opposition. The most consistent amongst those is Di Maria as he has excellent footwork and averages 2 shots a game, 2.9 key passes a game and 2 dribbles a game. Di Maria will cost you, but he is as close as a must play as you can get. Up front, I think Van Persie takes the most chances without Rooney and that could translate to goals. My personal bold prediction of the weekend is Van Persie getting 2 goals with Di Maria assisting on at least one of them.
On the other side, Romelu Lukaku is a top option against Manchester United’s defensive presence (or lack thereof) Lukaku has taken 3.2 shots per game with 2 goals to show for it. Another great option to take advantage of is Leighton Baines who’s price still hasn’t come up to match his production (double digit fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 matches) Also worth note is Steven Naismith who has three goals to show for his efforts so far this season, He’ll be worth taking a look at.
Tottenham vs Southampton
This could be a very interesting game as both teams have mediocre defenses and Tottenham manager used to coach Southampton, I’m expecting a high scoring affair. The oddsmakers aren’t agreeing with me though, so I’ll err on the side of caution before you go stacking both offenses here. Both teams have some good play makers and defenders who can provide some attacking prowess.
Goalkeepers:
Hugo Lloris is having a tough go at it. His team hasn’t recorded a clean sheet since the first week of the season against QPR, and after playing Thursday in Europa, I don’t expect that to change this time around. I wouldn’t roster either goalkeeper from this match as I expect at least three goals scored.
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Fraser Forster last week Forster allowed 1 goal and made one save against QPR. I suspect this game will go somewhat similar and he will emerge victorious, but will not record the clean sheet. He does however have a slight better chance than Lloris this week, just because of the level of opposing forwards.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Other players to target:
Tottenham likes to attack down the middle which limits its defenders from attacking and providing crosses, the best chance to take is on Eric Dier, but he’s a GPP option at best. The midfield has a few enticing options including Nacer Chadli, Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen, all three can provide some stats, with Chadli being the most likely to provide upside as he can cross the ball and score it. The only option on offense is Emmanuel Adebayor who takes the most shots for this team, but only has one goal to show for it.
Southampton has a more interesting offensive strategy that is more suited for DFS, as its two wing defenders like to venture up front and deliver crosses. Ryan Bertrand and Nathaniel Clyne are both good attacking defenders and can provide some crosses, assists and goals. The beneficiary up front from all these crosses is Graziano Pelle who has scored on 4 goals so far this season and provide 3.7 shots per game. He will be one of the forwards I will target this week in most of my lineups. In the midfield, Dusan Tadic and Sadio Mane are very good players who will attack and have high upside to provide scoring for your teams.
Chelsea vs Arsenal
The match of the week, at least for me it is. Two teams coming off wins in Europe, Arsenal struggling with injuries and Chelsea missing Drogba and Ramires and with Diego Costa being brought up as fit or unfit. Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho has already stated that Costa will start this game, which makes him a great option. Last season these two teams met and Chelsea won 6-0 in a very lopsided matchup. Arsenal have played better this season and look to take it to their Rivals Chelsea.
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois is the second most expensive goalkeeper for this day, but he is also one of the top in terms of Fantasy points average. Chelsea is expected to get the win and they are expected to score a few. They also boast a strong defense so it will be hard to score on them. That said, Arsenal are a dynamic offense that takes 15 shots a game with 5 of those on target. If Courtois allows one goal but makes 4-5 stops and gets the W, he’ll be worth his price. While the clean sheet is unlikely, I do like him as one of the top goalkeepers on the weekend.
Clean Sheet Index = 6
Wojciech Szczesny is coming off a game where he saw a red card at 60 minutes, barely earning the “W” bonus for his owners last week in UCL games. Szczesny is going to be hard pressed to have a good game this time out as Chelsea are a very good offense that likes to shoot and score a lot of goals. He’s a GPP option at best, as there is a high probability of over 2.5 goals scored this game. I would only take him if you feel brave.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Other Players I like:
For Chelsea, roster one of their defenders Branislav Ivanovic with confidence, he’s been consistent and has provided offensive output. He also provides some upside, there are better values out there which can produce just as much but cost significantly less.
The midfield and forwards will be focused on Fabregas, Hazard and Diego Costa. Any of those Chelsea players can score and/or assist this week. For value I’d consider Oscar, Willian or Schurrle. Willian looks to start this week, but keep a lookout on the other starter to be named Sunday morning. If you’re feeling daring, take a flyer on Loic Remy to come off the bench and score. We’ve seen this happen a few times and it might not be a bad option for some GPP lineups to include that strategy.
As for Arsenal, I’d fade all defenders, but take a look at taking Danny Welbeck or Alexis Sanchez as either can provide a goal against a good Chelsea defense.