EPL Weekly Plays - Matchday 13
EPL matchday 13 brings us a bunch of uninspiring matchups, nothing quite as juicy as Arsenal and Manchester United rekindling an old rivalry. However, we do get some interesting matchups on Saturday as Manchester United play host to Hull City in what should be an easy win for Manchester United, Also, QPR and Newcastle should have themselves an interesting game.
This week, due to it being turkey day and a little bit of a time crunch, I’ll break down the game slate a little bit differently. Instead of going through the games grind-down style, I’ll try to provide my favorite plays in each position along with at least two bargain plays. As always, make sure to monitor twitter for starting lineups as they come in about an hour or so before lineup lock. And feel free to hit me up @DFS_Hambazaza for any questions and I’ll do my best to answer them.
Goalkeepers
Thibaut Courtois – Chelsea, $5,700, – While Courtois and the Premier League leading Chelsea haven’t had a clean sheet on the road in the EPL this season so far, they are coming off a dominant and convincing 5-0 win over Schalke 04 in the Champions League. I predict that Courtois and the Chelsea defensive line will hold strong in this match against Sunderland. On the other hand, Sunderland are one of the weaker offenses in the league after scoring only 12 goals in 12 matches. I don’t see them threatening Chelsea at all this week and Courtois should be a comfortable keeper to select this week.
Robert Green – QPR, $4,300. – A home favorite for the league bottom feeders, he’s slightly more expensive than he should be given his teams position in the table, however, this week QPR are facing Leicester in an important match for the Rangers at home. I expect that Green has a very good chance at a clean sheet in this matchup and he will be on some of my rosters.
Tom Heaton – Burnley, $4,300, Brad Guzan – Aston Villa, $4,100. – These two keepers are facing each other in a game I predict to be very defensive and very low scoring. a scoreline of 0-0 would not surprise me, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if one team manages a couple of goals depending on the game flow. These two keepers are GPP options at this point as neither team is guaranteed the win bonus. If I had to pick one of them, I’d go with Burnley’s keeper Heaton as they are at home and he has three successive games with double digit points.
Others I like: David De Gea (Manchester United), Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea)
Defenders
Branislav Ivanovic – Chelsea, $5,100. – It’s easy to recommend the most expensive player on the board, however, this week Ivanovic is truly a recommendation regardless of his price. In the last two matches for Chelsea, Ivanovic has been given more freedom to roam around on offense and has actually spent a good portion of the match as a right winger. The statistical output was missing in the Schalke 04 match, however against West Brom in the EPL last week he managed 9 crosses that unfortunately didn’t lead to any goals scored. He will however get more of the same type of chances and will be worth rostering and paying up for, especially considering Chelsea’s edge over their opponent this week.
Javier Manquillo – Liverpool, $4,000. – The Liverpool fullback has been starting lately with the injuries and while his price has risen, he’s not overpriced as he should return offensive production and any clean sheet or 1GA bonuses will be extra. He loves to get forward to join in on the attack with Sterling and should be a good source for some points.
Aaron Cresswell – West Ham, $3,700. – One of the stats I like to look at when analyzing the potential of a player is “chances created” and compare it to the total assists a player has accumulated on the season. For Aaron Cresswell, he has a total of 18 chances created with only two assists credited to his name. This tells me that Cresswell is “due” for a breakout game where he manages an assist or two. To add to it, Newcastle have a number of injuries in their back line including their keeper potentially missing out, and that leads me to believe that West Ham are a team to target this week, and in the backfield, Cresswell is your guy.
Stephen Ward – Burnley, $3,100. – It’s very odd writing about a Burnley defender not named Kieran Trippier, especially for a team that has conceded 20 goals so far on the season. And while Trippier should be a top pick for defenders this week, he’s only $100 cheaper than Ivanovic and if choosing between them I’m leaning with the Chelsea defender. On the other side of the field tho, Burnley’s other full back, Ward, is a good cheaper play at defense. Ward has some interesting road/home splits. He tends to attack more at home and specifically when playing a weaker team. Ward should provide some crosses into the field and if Burnley play from ahead then Villa will be facing a lot of pressure. Why not get some exposure to some cheap options in Ward?
Carl Jenkinson – West Ham, $3,400. – He’s no longer minimum priced which means that Draftkings finally took away everybody’s favorite value play. However, he is priced at $3,400 and with a floor seemingly in the double digits, I think that Jenkinson is still under-priced and worth taking in your teams.
Other Defenders I like: Cesar Azpilicueta – Chelsea, Yun Suk-Young – Queens Park Rangers, Alan Hutton – Aston Villa, Massadio Haidara – New Castle, Phil Bardsley – Stoke City.
Midfielders
Angel Di Maria – Manchester United, $12,700. – The second most expensive player on the board across all positions is Angel Di Maria and he’s worth every penny. His floor is 15-20 points just from crosses and shots alone. He’s also a very capable goal scorer and a very active attacking midfielder who gets more than 28 touches a game in the opponents final third. Moreover, he creates almost 2.5 chances a game. And with that, he’s actually only converted them to 6 assists on the season for an assist% of ~20%. While this may be good, it is lower than some of the other elite midfielders in the Premier League leading me to believe that a correction will come and he might have a multi assist game in his future soon. A matchup at home against a weak Hull side might be just the trick.
Gylfi Sigurdsson – Swansea, $7,400. – Swansea didn’t deserve to lose their last match against City last weekend, and if history tells us anything is that teams that play well enough to win, but fail to do so can either come out flat or come out swinging in their next go around. I predict that Swansea will come out with a determination upon them to defeat a visiting Palace team that has managed only four points in its last six games. Gylfi also scored the last time they played at home against Arsenal, and being back at home, expect Sigurdsson to pick right where he left off and deliver a strong performance against Crystal Palace.
Stewart Downing – West Ham, $7,200. – Downing missed last week’s matchup with Everton due to an injury he sustained during international duty with England, however the team’s official site says that he should be expected to start this match with no issues. As such, be cognizant of the starting lineups on Saturday morning as things can change. Downing should be a good play in this matchup tho, He’s been one of the top midfielders so far this season and this game will prove no different. Also with 34 chances created and only 4 assists, he might be due for a correction. Add to that his cross ratio as he provides 27% of the teams’ crosses, I like Downing this week to pay off his salary and provide some potential for a big day.
Joey Barton – QPR, $4,200. – The value play of the day at the midfield is Joey Barton. Barton has recently returned from injury and just played a full 90 minutes in QPR’s last matchup against New Castle, in which he provided 8 fantasy points. This week QPR plays Leicester City who are at the bottom or close to the bottom in almost all defensive categories. Barton is going to be a more involved cog in the QPR offense this week as the team will be missing Sandro and Barton could slot in the middle right behind Charlie Austin who is in form.
Mile Jedinak – Crystal Palace, $6,400. Jedinak has recently taken on penalty and spot kick duties for Palace increasing his value. Moreover, he’s scored two goals in the last three games, and while this game is actually a tough one, I do believe he has a good chance at his price range to produce, although his floor is very low as he does not provide many crosses or shots.
Philippe Coutinho – Liverpool, $5,700. – Coutinho should be slotted into the starting lineup as Liverpool are struggling with injuries at the moment. Coutinho could find himself part of a front three in attack going against a visiting Stoke squad. I like Coutinho’s chances to improve on his output from previous games given his slightly increased role in the offense in this matchup.
Other Midfielders I like: Eden Hazard – Chelsea, Cesc Fabregas – Chelsea, Ashley Barnes – Burnley, Ahmed Elmohamady – Hull
Forwards
Charlie Austin – QPR, $8,000 – He didn’t score last week on the road against Newcastle, but still managed 6 shots including 3 on goal. Austin is still in good form and will likely find the back of the net in this matchup with Leicester at home.
Diego Costa – Chelsea, $12,800 – Much like Angel Di Maria, it’s easy to recommend the most expensive forward on the board. Costa is in prime position to score this week, as he is every week, since Chelsea doesn’t seem to tap on the breaks at all when they are ahead. Given that Costa left the midweek Champions League game early, he’ll be fresh and ready for this matchup and I predict he’s going to be very active in front of the Sunderland goal in the Stadium of Light.
Danny Ings – Burnley, $6,800 – Three goals in his last four matches, the Burnley striker is another in form player coming into a home match. I like Ings for his price this week despite the spike. Much like Austin, it took him a while to figure things out in the Premier League, however all the numbers point to more offense coming from the U21 England man.
Wayne Rooney – Manchester United, $11,500 – Rooney has not been as productive as he has been in recent years, and given his high price range, I’m inclined to not include him in my picks for the day, however, given the lack of attacking threats, I’ve decided to include him as he’s scored in the Arsenal match and looked very productive doing so. Given all that, roster Rooney on a GPP roster only.
Wilfried Bony – Swansea, $8,400 – Bony is one of my favorite strikers on the day as Swansea should have their way with visiting Crystal Palace. He makes a good stack with Gylfi in the midfield and if the stars align you might end up with the assist-goal handcuff combo.
Bojan Krkic – Stoke, $5,400 – Here’s the GPP special. Bojan is expected to start in place of the injured Victor Moses and he’s looking for something to jump start his Premier League career and he looks to be finding it. In his last two matches since the Moses injury Bojan has provided a goal and an assist for his team as they’ve been looking for ways to score. Liverpool are a poor defensive team that is a bit out of sorts and the young Krkic could find himself celebrating a few minutes in.
Other Forwards I like: Andreas Weimann – Aston Villa, Robin Van Persie – Manchester United, Frazier Campbell – Crystal Palace, Diafra Sakho – West Ham United