Expert Picks Preview: Week 3
Glean insight from one of the game’s best in Notorious’ NFL Expert Picks, as he lists picks he’ll actually be targeting in his cash & GPP games below. Each day you can get in-depth analysis by position for FanDuel games of varying game types.
Week 3
Quarterback
Drew Brees: $9,100 (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
Brees is off to a uncharacteristically bad start in 2014. Through the first two weeks, he has thrown for a measly 570 yards and 3 TD’s while throwing 2 interceptions. That said, both of those games were on the road where the Saints offense has sputtered over the last couple of seasons. The good news for Brees is that this week’s game against the Vikings will be played at home in the Superdome. Brees averaged 354 yards and 3.4 TD’s per game at home last season. Even more impressive was the fact that he only threw 3 interceptions at home which equates to a 9:1 TD to INT ratio. The Vikings defense gave up the most FP’s of any team to opposing quarterbacks in 2013 and haven’t done much to improve on that side of the ball this season. The Saints are huge favorites in this one and the 10.5 point spread could scare some people off of Brees. Even with a big spread, the Saints are going to be extremely aggressive in this game as they will look to climb out of the 0-2 hole that they are in. With their primary RB Mark Ingram out, Brees will be forced to make plays through the air, something he has had no problem doing in his career.
Kirk Cousins: $6,800 (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
RGIII is out with a dislocated ankle which means Kirk Cousins will be at the helm for the Redskins for the foreseeable future. The Redskins made the right call by not trading Cousins away in the offseason as they were concerned about Griffin’s health holding up over the course of the season. There have been reports that Jay Gruden actually prefers Cousins over Griffin in his offense. Cousins looked great against the Jaguars last week throwing for 250 yards and 2 TD’s after Griffin went down. If you take a close look at the numbers, Cousins has been a much better fit for this offense. Cousins has an 11.2 depth of target which is much higher than Griffin’s 7.8. Cousins is also averaging 3.7 points per drive compared to Griffin’s 0.7. While the Redskins would like to ease Cousins into action, they can’t afford to call a conservative game this week as they play the high-flying Eagles who put up points in droves. The Redskins should unleash Cousins this week against an Eagles’ secondary that allowed the 7th most FP’s to opposing quarterbacks last season.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy: $9,200 (vs. Washington Redskins)
McCoy has taken a backseat to Darren Sproles as the Eagles top fantasy RB through the first 2 weeks, but it’s not like McCoy has played bad. If his touches were down, then we can start to worry, but McCoy had 27 touches in Week 1 and followed it up with 24 touches in Week 2. He is also still the primary RB in a Chip Kelly offense that is all about scoring points as quickly as possible. McCoy is on pace for 80 receptions this season as Nick Foles has really made a concerted effort to get his RB’s and TE’s involved in the passing game. Foles has averaged 15.5 completions to RB’s and TE’s this season compared to only 7.8 completions last season. This week the Eagles face the Redskins who gave up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing RB’s in 2013. McCoy should see around 25 touches again this week and will get the majority of the redzone snaps. Once again, McCoy your top RB play of the week.
DeMarco Murray: $8,700 (vs. St. Louis Rams)
Even though McCoy is the top RB play this week, DeMarco Murray is not far behind him. After rushing for 118 yards in Week 1 against the Niners, Murray ran all over the Titans in Week 2 with 167 yards on 29 carries. Murray has also caught 4 passes for 31 yards on the season which gives him a total of 316 yards from scrimmage, which is the most of any RB in the NFL. There is always the concern that the Cowboys will abandon the running game, but it appears that the Cowboys coaching staff has finally figured out how important Murray is to this offense. After last week’s game against the Titans, the Cowboys are now 12-1 in games where Murray has received at least 20 carries. Targeting RB’s that are expected to see a lot of touches is never a bad strategy and Murray is averaging 27.5 touches per game which is 2nd only to Arian Foster. This week he facing a Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards this season. The Rams have also given up 4 rushing TD’s through the first 2 weeks. Expect another heavy workload for #29 of the Cowboys.
Knile Davis: $7,000 (vs. Miami Dolphins)
Jamaal Charles is dealing with a high ankle sprain and even though he is currently listed as questionable for Week 3, everyone would be surprised to see him out on the field come Sunday afternoon. If Charles does have to sit out, Knile Davis would be in line for a huge workload boost. Davis filled in admirably for Charles last week with 105 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD’s against the Broncos in a game where the Chiefs were playing from behind. Coach Andy Reid has full confidence in Davis as a #1 RB in this offense so as long as Charles is out, treat Davis as a top fantasy option. This week, the Chiefs face the Dolphins who gave up the 8th most rushing yards in 2013. UPDATE: Jamaal Charles didn’t practice Wednesday; I will continue to post updates here throughout the week.
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