FA Cup DFS: Saturday, January 28th
With no Premier League action this week, we are faced with a weekend of FA Cup matchups. And DraftKings was kind enough to add some bigger GPPs after some poking and prodding on Twitter. So because of this, We’re happy to provide you with some breakdown of these matches. Bear in mind that because of the nature of the schedule and the fact that, of the eight teams we’ll be looking at, four of them hail from lower divisions (three from the Championship, and one from the National League), it will be difficult to pinpoint exactly who gets the start, and which plays will be the best. What I will provide you however is a game by game breakdown of the best information I could get my hands on heading into Saturday.
Of course, as usual, be sure to follow on twitter and the Football Association’s official website for the starting lineups as they are announced an hour prior to lock on Saturday morning.
Chelsea vs Brentford
Chelsea enter this matchup as the best team in England at the moment. They are riding high and currently sit at the top of the table in the Premier League, and ever since losing a matchup to Tottenham 2-0 two weeks ago, have begun a two-match winning streak with a combined 5-0 score line against Leicester and Hull. They enter this matchup at home with the cross town west London team as a heavy favorite, Paddy Power has them as heavy favorites to win this matchup. Brentford for their part come into this matchup with some weak results in recent weeks. They haven’t won a match in the Championship since January 2nd and have been vulnerable at the back having conceded in six of their last seven matchups overall. They made it to this round of the competition after beating National League side Eastleigh, 5-1 at home. Brentford are currently mired in the middle of the table of the Championship and have an overall record of 9 wins, 6 draws and 12 defeats. They are widely expected to bow out of this tournament this week as they will undoubtedly be overcome by the Goliath that is Chelsea.
So how will the match play out? Chelsea will likely hold 60-75% of the possession forcing Brentford to retreat into their own third. Chelsea may have plenty of build up time and very few real chances, but will ultimately capitalize on 1-3 of those chances for an easy win that pushes them through to the next round.
Brentford Plays
Daniel Bentley, Goalkeeper $3,700 – He’s not the top goalkeeper on the slate, he’s away from home and facing a team that averages 14.6 shots per game on the season against the EPL competition. I don’t fully expect Bentley to end up with 5-10 saves, but he’s so cheap that he’s in a great spot to help you build any lineup you want and would be a play you can easily fit in with some upside. He will likely concede 1-3 goals (or more) as teams can run riot in the FA cup. At the same time, there is always a chance of a surprise from a lower league team to pull off the upset, and if Chelsea sends their B or even their C team, Bentley may find himself emerging from this match as a top fantasy performer.
There really aren’t any other plays to consider from this team. You could decide to target the midfielders, Josh McEachran ($4,400), Jota ($4,300) or Ryan Woods ($3,500) for the off chance that the team gets some crosses, tackles or corners as all three get involved in those plays. Woods would be the play to target because of his cheap price tag and the fact that he routinely gets the most touches on this team. This matchup doesn’t compare to any of the Championship matchups they have faced this season, so it’s tough to compare.
Chelsea Plays
This will all come down to who Antonio Conte decides to rest. Right now the most likely scenario is that Chelsea will be starting a very similar lineup to the one they started against Peterborough in the last round of the FA cup that saw Chelsea win 4-1 at home. The team played a 3-5-2 with Willian and Batshuayi leading the line. Pedro and Fabregas were the standouts in the midfield, and held a big part of the possession for the Blues. This week I expect that the focus on offense will be similar with Batshuayi ($6,500) Willian ($7,300) and Pedro ($7,800) being the focal points of the offense. Other options to consider are Fabregas ($6,600), and to a much lesser extent Ruben Loftus-Cheek ($3,400). RLC might be playing his last match as a Blue, as could Batshuayi who both feel that they can revive their careers elsewhere and get consistent first team minutes. Antonio Conte hasn’t indicated publicly yet (as of Tuesday morning) whether he plans on selling any of these players or loaning them out, but the risk is there. This will prioritize playing them here one last time before he decides to let them go.
Chelsea is a decent team to stack, because of the squad rotation they’ll likely have several mid-priced players to target and may have the value we need to fill our lineups out.
Lincoln vs Brighton
When looking at this matchup between two teams who don’t sit in the Premier League, most people will be tempted to assume that the matchup will likely be even and would try to take some value plays from both sides. In reality, this could very well be a very lopsided matchup with Brighton coming in as league leaders in the Championship and having the inside track to promotion to the Premier League out-right. Meanwhile, their opponents, Lincoln, sit atop the National League which is the FIFTH level English league, and while they should be promoted to League 2 next season if results hold, they still will be a much weaker team than Brighton.
There is not much available in terms of statistics from the National League, we know that Matt Rhead (Forward, $5,900) and Nathan Arnold (Midfielder, $5,900) are the leading scorers with 11 and 10 goals respectively on the season in the NL. They did beat Ipswich in the replay of the last round (Ipswich being a Championship side, meaning they should have had the upper hand, showing that Lincoln are capable). The team did manage a 2-2 draw in the first round with Ipswich showing them capable of scoring multiple goals in a match. Ipswich themselves currently sit in the middle of the table with a -5 goal differential, so their quality is questionable. Lincoln did lineup in a 4-4-2 formation last time out that saw the team perform fearlessly and they were rewarded with a 1-0 win at the 90th minute to send them to the fourth round of the FA cup.
That said, the matchup with Brighton will be different from the one against Ipswich. Lincoln are at home again which gives the team the comfort of playing on familiar grounds. I do expect that Brighton will perform as expected and will dominate possession. They are not a team with a high shot count, but they do retain possession. The Championship leaders have won eight of their last nine matches, a run that includes 4 clean sheets, although none of those came at home. Brighton do have a few known quantities ranging from Anthony Knockaert (Midfielder, $7,500) who takes corners and crosses for this team. He also takes free kicks and has 48 total key passes on the season but has only converted a single assist as a result of that activity.
His link-up in the front will likely be Tomer Hemed (Forward, $6,900) or Glenn Murray (Forward, $7,600). DFS players will be more familiar with Murray from his time with Crystal Palace, the last two seasons, and if he starts, he’ll likely be decently owned. However, if Hemed starts, he’ll be a staple in some lineups as he has a goal or assist in 4 of the last five matches he’s played. And even then, in his fifth match he had a disallowed goal showing his good form in recent weeks.
The most likely scenario in this match is that Brighton control possession for much of the 90 minutes, Hemed, Knockaert, and Murray will take the majority of the shots and collect the most fantasy points from non-goal events. Lincoln’s keeper, Paul Furman (Goalkeeper, $4,100) will be a busy man making him an ideal candidate for DFS purposes given his track record and home venue to be in your lineups.
Tottenham vs Wycombe
There might not be a more lopsided matchup on this slate than this one with Tottenham welcoming League 2’s Wycombe. Wycombe currently sit 5th in the League 2 table and are facing one of the better teams in the country, so they’ll likely have a very tough time when they take a Saturday visit to White Hart Lane. The team will likely be parking the bus and hoping to escape with a very narrow defeat to avoid embarrassment. The best chance they’ll have will be from a counter attack that sees them deliver a goal while narrowly avoiding conceding. There will likely be zero players I would advocate taking from this Wycombe side given the situation they find themselves in, and for that, I won’t go into too much detail of their team. If you do feel inclined to target players from this team, the most advanced forwards this season have usually been Scott Kashket (Forward, $5,100) and Adebayo Akinfenwa (Forward, $4,800), but neither of those will truly deliver fantasy returns given the opposition and the unlikelihood that they’ll get too many shots.
On the other side of the ball, we have a Tottenham team that will likely be rotating their lines as they prepare for a Tuesday matchup on the road with Sunderland, followed by a Saturday home encounter with Middlesbrough. Mauricio Pochettino will have to be smart with his rotations as he’s already got some knocks to his defenders Rose and Alderweireld. The team will likely feature Vincent Janssen (Forward, $6,800), Heung-Min Son (Midfielder/Forward, $7,400), Moussa Sissoko (Midfielder, $4,900), and Kieran Trippier (Defender, $4,500). Of those four likely starters, Son and Trippier carry the biggest upside as both can push out to the wings and play big crosses and passes into the middle where Janssen will look to capitalize. A team stack could work here as Tottenham could produce 3-5 goals quite easily, but the conservative approach involves taking Son, and another one of the other four mentioned. Son makes the safest option because of his corner kick duties and his potential penalty kick responsibility if the team finds themselves in that situation.
Southampton vs Arsenal
In this matchup, it will be vital for us to get into the heads of the managers to determine how important the FA cup is to them, and whether they’ll be rotating their squads heavily in preparation for the busy week in English football ahead of them. Southampton come into this one as slight underdogs, despite playing at home, and their manager, Claude Puel looks to be very confident in this one given the team’s recent performance against Leicester that saw them snap a four match losing stream to win 3-0. This week the challenge is tougher, as Arsenal are a stronger team than Leicester, but with the squad rotation expected, it could be just enough for Southampton to win. Southampton did knock Arsenal out of the EFL Cup earlier this season and given the state of the Premier League, this cup could end up being the only silverware that the Gunners manage to obtain this season (at least their best chance at winning some hardware resides in this tournament)
So where do we target? On the Southampton side, any mix of the front six would do, but my favorite target from this team these days is Dusan Tadic (Midfielder, $6,700), who has been solid recently with a high floor and a high ceiling. He scored a goal last time out to make it 3 out of 4 matches in which he’s reached double figures. He’s the top corner kick taker for this team. Another option is Nathan Redmond (Midfielder/Forward, $5,800) who is priced low enough and carries the same upside that Tadic has.
One other option to consider on this team is Fraser Forster (Goalkeeper, $4,500), at home and an underdog puts Forster in a good position for fantasy purposes. He’s likely to face a decent amount of shots on target and has shown in recent years that he has the quality to make the stops necessary to keep his team in the game, and make himself a solid fantasy contributor.
On the other side of the ball, Arsenal will boast a rotated club, between injuries, rest, suspensions and unavailability due to international duties, Arsenal will be forced to feature some players that they haven’t featured in recent weeks. This will allow for some value to appear. Premier target for this matchup, however is Theo Walcott (Midfielder/Forward, $8,000) who is coming off an injury, and is set to start for the first time since December 18th against his former club. Walcott was having an excellent season prior to his injury and should pick right back up where he left. Another player to look at is Lucas Perez (Forward, $6,600) who might pick up some play making duties with Sanchez, Cazorla and Ozil set to sit this one out. Because of the various options you could take in this slate, there is likely little incentive to load up heavily on this match, but there are some players you can target.