FanDuel NBA Single-Game Strategy: Pelicans/Kings DFS Preview

Hello Grinders. FanDuel has a solid single-game offering for tonight’s New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings game. Let’s dive in and see what we can make of this game.

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The Spread

This game is opening with a massive 235 over/under, with the Pelicans as slight 1.5-point road favorites. The Pelicans are 2nd in pace while the Kings are all the way down at 22nd, so it’ll be interesting to see if the favored Pelicans can dictate the pace here. The Pelicans and Kings are 9th and 10th in the Western Conference standings, so there are playoff implications here as both are fighting for the last seed. With both teams also in the bottom half of the league in terms of defensive efficiency, it makes sense as to why this game has such a high over/under.

The Injuries

On the Kings side, Jabari Parker has missed the last eight games due to illness and did warm up last game so he’s likely close to return, but given his lengthy absence I’m not expecting him to be much of a factor in the rotation even when he is healthy to be back.

On the Pelicans side, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is out indefinitely with a wrist injury. J.J. Redick also remains out with a hamstring injury, so all of Josh Hart, E’Twaun Moore and Nicolo Melli will benefit from his injury.

The Options

DeAaron Fox – I love the price discount we get off the big three from the Pelicans (Holiday, Ingram, Ball) and dropping down to Fox at $13,500 as a building block. Minutes are a slight issue with Fox and this awful Luke Walton-run team, but Fox has seen 30 or more minutes now in 10 of his last 11 games. Additionally, he’s topped 34 or more FanDuel points in 10 of his last 11 games. While I do have some concerns about his ceiling as he’ll have to deal with some Jrue Holiday defense on the other side, I love the floor that he offers.

Lonzo Ball – De’Aaron Fox grades out as a subpar defender, and I have no problems taking advantage of that through Lonzo Ball. Ball has been on fire down the stretch, scoring at least 29 FanDuel points now in 18 straight games. More important for me is that Ball’s minutes have trended up during this hot streak. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 35 minutes per game, which is an uptick from his 32.4 season average. If this game stays close, and Vegas thinks it does, Ball should be out there a lot tonight.

Kent Bazemore or Nicolo Melli – We’re going to need some salary relief, and these two are my favorite options down in the $8K-ish range. Bazemore has carved out a steady role in this Kings secondary, having now played at least 24 minutes in six straight games. His defensive abilities are also great on FanDuel’s scoring, as he’s had nine STOCKS (steals + blocks) over his last six games. Bazemore is not going to break the slate, but he provides you with a nice enough floor where you can jam in some of the studs in this game. As for Nicolo Melli, his role has started to expand with J.J. Redick out. He’s $500 cheaper than Bazemore but his role is less secure. He has reached 23-26 minutes in his last three games, but he’s more shooting-dependent. I personally prefer getting up to Bazemore if possible, but Melli is a viable salary saver if you can tolerate some risk.

Richaun Holmes – I want to write up Holmes because he’s coming back from an injury and has played just 18 and 19 minutes in his return, but that was on a back-to-back, which is a great sign for his health. I’d think that as he gets healthier, his minutes should start to increase. He’s a fantastic per-minute producer and I’d expect him to take back the starting role eventually from Harry Giles. The Kings do now have Alex Len, who I also consider an elite option in this format as he could easily crush in 15+ minutes. Holmes is someone I’d at least monitor because if he’s re-inserted back into the starting lineup or there’s news his minutes will be trending up for this game, I’d have a lot of interest at just $9,500 as he’s going to be needed to help defend against Derrick Favors. I wanted to mention Len as well because I can find a solid build where you may need the extra $500, but Len’s minutes are far from secure.

Jrue Holiday – I’m not going to go into detail about why Holiday is an amazing play – he is. The problem is that he’s $16,000 and the most expensive option on this slate. You’re going to have to make sacrifices to get to him, and that could be something like pivoting down from Holmes to Len, or a Bazemore to a Melli. He has one of the better matchups on paper and arguably the highest ceiling out of anyone in this game. I think he’s a great option but if you need to pivot down to a Zion or Ingram and take the savings so you aren’t rostering too many punts, then I don’t mind that. The issue with Zion and Ingram as that when they are on the court together, they eat into each other’s usage, so they low each other’s floors and ceilings. This is why I still consider Holiday the best stud of this Pelicans group as he’s been able to find ways to go off with both Ingram and Zion around.

Thanks for reading, and good luck tonight. May variance be on your side.

About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS