FanDuel PGA Expert Survey: Sentry Tournament of Champions
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in PGA DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s tournament.
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Sentry Tournament of Champions
Who is your favorite golfer for cash games?
Notorious: Bryson DeChambeau
STLCardinals84: Dustin Johnson
futureoffantasy: Dustin Johnson
hondizzle: Dustin Johnson
Tour Junkies: Jon Rahm
Who is your favorite golfer for tournaments?
Notorious: Jon Rahm
STLCardinals84: Jon Rahm
futureoffantasy: Dustin Johnson
hondizzle: Justin Thomas
Tour Junkies: Dustin Johnson
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Notorious: Billy Horschel
STLCardinals84: Billy Horschel
futureoffantasy: Gary Woodland
hondizzle: Matt Kuchar
Tour Junkies: Bubba Watson
Which value-priced golfer has the best chance of making the cut?
Tour Junkies: N/A
Which golfer are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Notorious: Brooks Koepka
STLCardinals84: Brooks Koepka
futureoffantasy: Bryson DeChambeau
hondizzle: Webb Simpson
Tour Junkies: Bryson DeChambeau
Which stud will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Jason Day
STLCardinals84: Webb Simpson
futureoffantasy: Francesco Molinari
hondizzle: Webb Simpson
Tour Junkies: Jason Day
What type of golfer are you targeting most? (ie: bomber, short game specialist)
Notorious: Ball Striker
futureoffantasy: Wind Specialist
hondizzle: Great Iron Player
Tour Junkies: Low Owned Scorer
Which statistic other than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are you weighing most?
Notorious: Par 5 Scoring
STLCardinals84: Birdie or Better %
futureoffantasy: Bogey Avoidance
hondizzle: Par 4 scoring
Tour Junkies: Birdie or Better %
Predict the top three finishers of the week.
Notorious: 1. DeChambeau 2. Rahm 3. Horschel
STLCardinals84: 1. Rahm 2. D Johnson 3. Woodland
futureoffantasy: 1. D Johnson 2. Rahm 3. Woodland
hondizzle: 1. Johnson 2. Kuchar 3. Rahm
Tour Junkies: DJ, Rory, Rahm
Predict the winning score of the week (ie: E, -5, -10).
Tour Junkies: -24
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: With the generous fairways and large greens, the driving accuracy and green in regulation numbers are always well above the PGA Tour average. This is a course where you need to be aggressive and where you need to take advantage of the par fives (all four are birdie/eagle opportunities). Don’t worry about the length of the course, as it plays much shorter than the 7,453 yards on the scorecard.
STLCardinals84: Kapalua is a rare Par 73 course that features the usual four Par 5’s, but it only has three Par 3’s. It’s a resort-style course which will favor bombers and feature plenty of birdies. With everyone returning from an extended rest in what amounts to more of an “exhibition” event, don’t be afraid to fade a higher-owned player in GPP formats.
futureoffantasy: With just three par 3s and one extremly long par 5, there will be a lot of wedge opportunities this week. The field generally gets 8 approach shots from inside 140 yards per round which is the highest number across any annual TOUR stop. Distance is fun to way this week but even the shorter hitters will get their share of birdie looks via wedges.
hondizzle: When looking through my notes from this event over the last few years a few things really stuck out to me as things to remember. First thing we want to always pay attention too is the wind. Due to the layout wind can help or hurt players at Kapalua. Over the years we have seen some golfers who are not overly long pay well at this course due to the fact that they are good wind players and or the winds that week make long holes shorter. The second thing is that with such a small field don’t’ be afraid to leave money on the table when building rosters.
Tour Junkies: Our inside info from a long term PGA Tour Caddie said that Kapalua can be difficult for a 1st timer due to wind and course management. He mentioned that most first timers don’t understand where to be aggressive at Kapalua, and the stats point to 1st timers struggling. We’ll be looking for guys who’ve competed at Kapalua before, and we’ll be underweight on the 1st timers like Champ, Wise, etc.
What is your hot take of the week?
Notorious: We see four golfers shoot at least 20-under par.
STLCardinals84: Jon Rahm recovers from a five-shot deficit to win with a 10-under par round on Sunday.
futureoffantasy: Dustin Johnson goes wire-to-wire to win by 5 shots and defend his title.
hondizzle: Cameron Champ disappoints at a very high onwership number.
Tour Junkies: Rory gets 2019 off to a hot start after a lukewarm 2018 and finishes top 3.
Who is your top contrarian golfer on the board and why?
Notorious: Patrick Reed – For whatever reason, he loves playing this course. In his last three trips to Kapalua, he has posted finishes of first, second, and sixth. He’s never highly owned in DFS for two reasons — first, he’s not a very likable guy in general and second, his statistics never look great on paper. He’s not very good off the tee or with his approaches. With all of that said, I will gladly load up on Reed if he’s going to be low owned.
STLCardinals84: Patrick Reed – I am generally not a huge fan of Reed because he never pops statistically, but I like him as an option on a resort course that feels like an “exhibition” for many other golfers. You know this is not an exhibition for Patrick Reed. He plays to win any time he shows up at a golf course, and he has finishes of 6th, 2nd, and 1st in his last three trips to Kapalua. The last time he teed it up, he finished 2nd in a strong field over in Europe at the DP World Tour Championship. The combination of motivation, form, and course history has me on Reed this week.
futureoffantasy: Jason Day – He hasn’t done anything recently to draw ownership away from the stars in his salary range. However, with wind in the forecast all week, I like the Aussie a lot. If we look at percentage of good rounds record in Windy Conditions (14 MPH+) since 2014 when Day tops the field. Hsi elite short game keeps him out of big trouble and his distance allows him to feast on the par 5s.
hondizzle: Matt Kuchar struggled for a large part of last season, but a win during the wrap around season allowed for this veteran to return to a venue that he has played well in the past. I think most in the industry feel like Kuchar’s game is on the decline, thus keeping his ownership level down. Kuchar loves this event and has a great track record. In the past he would spend extra time with his family in Hawaii so this event has always been something he looked forward to and I expect more of the same this year.
Tour Junkies: It’s tough to know at this point who will be contrarian, but we think Rory may be overlooked somewhat. He doesn’t have the history here, he didn’t have a great 2018, and the stats don’t show up. But, we will take a low owned Rory on a track with no cut where you have to shoot -25 any day of the week!
Who is your top overall golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Bryson DeChambeau – If you’ve been paying attention to the PGA Tour over the last six months, then it’s hard not to consider Bryson a top five golfer in the world. He has just as much winning equity as any of the names at the top this week and he’s considerably cheaper than Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Brooks Koepka. If you are a fan of form or of statistics, then Bryson should be on your radar. He’s ranked sixth or better in this field in strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, par four scoring, and par five scoring.
STLCardinals84: Dustin Johnson – He has no weaknesses in his game and has finished 10th or better in this event in each of the last three years. He is also the defending champion. With four reachable par fives, DJ carries a nice combination of floor and ceiling, and he is a priority play for me in all DFS formats.
futureoffantasy: Dustin Johnson – Kapalua is a course where plenty of golfers have repeated success. DJ is one of them with two wins already to his name here and seven of his eight appearances resulting in finishes of T11 or better. Looking at just the adjusted strokes gained data from 2018, Johnson actually underperformed even though he won three times. It was at this time last year that he was talking about a 9-or-10 win season being possible. That may be pushing it a bit far but I expect DJ to see plenty of winner’s circles again in 2019.
hondizzle: Dustin Johnson: This two time winner of this event stands out as one of the strongest plays in what is a very solid field. Motivated to keep up with the great young talent around him Johnson returns to a course where he has only finished outside the top ten twice in 8 starts. Johnson has gained almost 28 strokes over the last five seasons and clearly has the game needed to play well at Kapalua.
Tour Junkies: Dustin Johnson – He checks all of the boxes in terms of scoring, driving, iron play, etc. He’s got the history here as a multiple winner. He’s the clear Vegas favorite for many reasons.
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