FanDuel Single-Game NBA Finals Targets: Game 1
The NBA Finals are right on our doorstep after what felt like a month without basketball. It’s an interesting dynamic tonight when we look over the NBA odds – the Warriors opened as 1.5-point favorites and despite them getting a large percentage of both total bets and total money, the Raptors are 1-point favorites as of this writing. It’s a pretty good indication there is some sharp money on the Toronto side in the first Finals Game 1 in Canada.
Regardless, this one is expected to be close throughout and makes for a very exciting Single-Game slate on Thursday night. FanDuel is offering up a $1M prize pool in the Thursday Game 1 Final Shot with $200K to first place, so there is big money on the table tonight. Let’s get into the top targets for your NBA lineups.
High-End Options for the MVP Spot – The two most popular selections here will surely be Stephen Curry and Kawhi Leonard, and for good reason. I think you can make a better case for Kawhi here than you can for Steph with how I expect the Raptors to defend Curry, so if choosing between those two, it’ll be Leonard for me.
If you want to go a little off the board with an MVP pick, there are cases to be made for both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. Klay’s upside is clear – he can get as hot as anyone from the field and while the Raptors will have some strong options to throw his way as well, it’ll likely be a little easier for him to get free compared to Curry. If he paces the Dubs in scoring and can add some ancillary stats, there is a path to him being a big difference maker. Draymond Green has been a monster in the postseason and especially with DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant out of the lineup. Cousins will be active tonight, but it can certainly be argued that he doesn’t fit this matchup all that well and could have his minutes monitored to a degree anyway. I’ll go with Kawhi as the top MVP play, but I’d have some shares of Klay, Dray (and probably Steph) if you’re multi-entering.
Mid-Range Options – Klay and Dray are the top options below the two studs and will surely have plenty of traction tonight. It gets a little murkier after that. I generally will side with Siakam over Lowry when they are priced similarly, but I actually think this matchup suits Lowry better. I can see Siakam struggling on the offensive end with Draymond Green and it’s pretty clear that teams need to try to force him into a mid-range game or deal with letting him shoot some open 3’s, but he’s at his best when he’s slashing to the rim. Lowry is going to be a big key for Toronto here, as he has the ability to make Curry work on both sides of the floor.
Of the other options priced over $10K, I won’t have Looney exposure assuming Cousins isn’t on a really tight minutes limit (and I don’t see why that would happen here). Marc Gasol has some appeal at $10K, but I’d prefer to save the $2K and pivot down to Serge Ibaka, who may be better suited for this draw and has shown an ability to produce at a healthy per-minute rate.
Value Options – Below $10K, there are a handful of viable options, most of which are on the Toronto side. Andre Iguodala is a pretty strong value at $9K given that he’ll likely be tasked with attempting to slow Kawhi down along with Klay Thompson. I’d bet he crosses the 30-minute mark tonight. Will “(player-popup #fred-vanvleet)Fred VanVleet”:/players/fred-vanvleet-36011’s hot shooting continue? His success from 3-point land is going to level out and while he was as an integral part of the series against Milwaukee, I don’t expect him to play as prominent of a role here. I think we’ll see a little more Danny Green (priced at $6.5K, I’d only get to him after I built 10+ teams) in this series to help slow Steph and Klay and that’ll likely eat into FVV’s court time a bit.
Serge Ibaka is my favorite punt at $8K or cheaper, and you can also make a case for Norman Powell at $7K. The best $/point value likely comes from DeMarcus Cousins at $6K. FanDuel didn’t really make an effort to price him up and if he plays more than 20 minutes here, it’ll be tough for him to not return solid value. The playing time is by far the biggest question mark with him, and the Warriors center rotation will have a pretty big impact on how this slate turns out. Stay up on news through lineup lock – if anything actionable breaks on Cousins, we’ll alert you via the RotoGrinders DFS Alerts App. Turn your NBA notifications on!