Fantasy Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Picks
Jordan Spieth outlasted Sean O’Hair and his Ryder Cup-teammate Patrick Reed in a playoff to win last week’s Valspar Championship. This week the PGA Tour will head to Arnie’s place for the final leg of the Florida swing.
Event Preview
Unfortunately, Tiger Woods will not be in the field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. This is an event that he has absolutely dominated in the past, but he is still not healthy enough to play. We’ll have to settle for the likes of Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Jason Day, and Rickie Fowler. This is a pretty talented field of 120 golfers. The cut will remain the same at 70 and ties, so there will be less missed cuts this week, which may allow us to employ a stars/scrubs approach.
Bay Hill is a difficult course, but it’s not nearly the same test that we have seen from the courses over the last few weeks. The winner of this event typically scores double-digit under par, so we can expect some good scores in daily fantasy. Bay Hill is a Par 72 that measures 7,419 yards. It features four Par 4’s and four Par 3’s. This is one of the longer courses on tour, so distance off the tee certainly isn’t going to hurt. Ball striking and Par 5 scoring are the two main stats that I will be targeting this week.
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Ball Striking
4) Par 5 Scoring
Henrik Stenson: $12500
Odds to Win: 9/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 11
Strokes Gained: Putting: 135
Ball Striking: 1
Par 5 Scoring: 7
Analysis: Stenson is a tough fade this week in daily fantasy. Trends are converging nicely for him and he is sitting at a very playable price of $12,500. Stenson has posted top four finishes in each of his last two starts on tour. He is also 6/6 at Bay Hill with top 15 finishes in each of the last three seasons. Stenson is one of the best ball strikers in the world and is ranked 7th in Par 5 scoring.
Brooks Koepka: $9400
Odds to Win: 32/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 25
Strokes Gained: Putting: 40
Ball Striking: 61
Par 5 Scoring: 38
Analysis: Koepka is one of the most talented players in the world. He is playing more on the PGA Tour this season, but he hasn’t had history on many of the courses that he has faced. That won’t be a problem this week, as he finished T-26th in this event last season. Koepka is one of the longest hitters on tour and he’s ranked in the top 65 in all of the key statistics for the week.
J.B. Holmes: $8900
Odds to Win: 34/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 29
Strokes Gained: Putting: 142
Ball Striking: 115
Par 5 Scoring: 92
Analysis: Is this a long course that rewards bombers? Yes! Does that mean that we need to consider J.B. Holmes this week? Yes, yes it does. Holmes has gotten off to a terrific start this season and he has posted three top ten finishes in his last four events. Bubba Watson may be the only player on tour that is longer off the tee. It also helps that Holmes has never missed a cut at Bay Hill, posting top 30 finishes in three of his last four attempts.
Martin Laird: $7800
Odds to Win: 61/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 108
Strokes Gained: Putting: 131
Ball Striking: 39
Par 5 Scoring: 10
Analysis: Laird may be my favorite mid-range golfer this week on DraftKings. The $7,600 – $7,800 price range is stacked with options, but none have caught my eye the way Laird has. He is coming into the event in terrific form, finished each of his last four tournaments in the top 33. He also has two top ten finishes during that stretch. Laird is a good ball striker that loves to do his scoring on Par 5’s. He’s also won this event back in 2008, so he knows the course well.
Justin Thomas: $7600
Odds to Win: 67/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 35
Strokes Gained: Putting: 83
Ball Striking: 71
Par 5 Scoring: 5
Analysis: The rookie has been hit or miss this season, but when he is locked in, he’s a threat for a top ten finish. He had a backdoor top ten finish last week by shooting a closing 68 at the Valspar Championship. Thomas has not played this event before, but he should have plenty of confidence coming into the week. He is ranked 5th on tour in Par 5 scoring and as I mentioned earlier, 50 players at most will miss the cut. We can afford to be a little more aggressive in our player selection.
Charles Howell III: $7600
Odds to Win: 74/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 30
Strokes Gained: Putting: 122
Ball Striking: 72
Par 5 Scoring: 20
Analysis: Chucky three-sticks makes another appearance in Noto’s suggested plays. He was one of my favorite values last week, and he certainly paid off his salary with a top ten finish at the Valspar Championship. Bay Hill is another course that CH3 that dominated in the past, making the cut here in each of his last six tries, never finishing outside of the top 45. He may not have the upside of Justin Thomas, but he’s the safer play for cash games if you are debating between the two.
Daniel Summerhays: $6500
Odds to Win: 118/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 77
Strokes Gained: Putting: 17
Ball Striking: 72
Par 5 Scoring: 62
Analysis: If we are going to target Henrik Stenson this week, we need at least one or two value plays in our lineup. Summerhays fits the mold for this course and he is coming into the event with three straight finishes in the top 35. Summerhays is a great putter and he ranks in the top 80 in all of the important stats for the week. He’s had mixed results at this event in the past, but offers great value at his price point.
Author’s Note: The stats listed above are an average of the 2013-14 & 2014-15 seasons.