Fantasy Golf: AT&T Pebble Beach Expert Picks & Preview
The PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach this week for the AT&T Pro-Am. This event will take place on three different courses and will feature a 54-hole cut.
Event Preview
There will be plenty of celebrities on the course this week and the amateurs will play with the pros all the way through the final round. The three courses for this event are the Spyglass Hill GC, the Pebble Beach GL, and the Monterey Peninsula. All three check in at less than 7,000 yards and all three are susceptible to low rounds.
In the past this event has awarded those that can putt. You can be wayward off the tee, as long as you are accurate with your irons and can knock down putts. These courses do feature very small greens, which brings scrambling into play as well. The winning score has varied year to year based on the weather, but this week is expected to be a birdie fest.
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Total Driving
4) Scrambling
5) Proximity to Hole
Jordan Spieth: $13200
Odds to Win: 13/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 24
Strokes Gained: Putting: 86
Total Driving: 146.5
Scrambling: 71
Proximity: 101
Analysis: Spieth missed the cut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he’s afforded a bad week every now and then. He should bounce back this week at Pebble Beach, has he has posted T-22nd and T-4th finishes over the last two years. He is just as likely to walk away with the trophy as Jason Day and Jimmy Walker, yet he is $4,000 cheaper on DraftKings.
Hunter Mahan: $10100
Odds to Win: 25/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 55
Strokes Gained: Putting: 47
Total Driving: 19
Scrambling: 94
Proximity: 153
Analysis: Talk about a horse for the course. Mahan has dominated this event, posting Top-16 finishes in each of his last four tries. He is a great driver of the ball and a solid putter as well. He should be in contention come Sunday afternoon and his price is more than reasonable this week.
Jim Furyk: $9500
Odds to Win: 30/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 3
Strokes Gained: Putting: 82
Total Driving: 62
Scrambling: 1
Proximity: 2
Analysis: This is Furyk’s first event of the season, which may lower his percentage of ownership. I’m all in on Furyk right out of the gate, as he is coming off of a career season. He made all 21 cuts last season and posted Top-25 finishes in 18 of those events. He’s as accurate as they come and was the best scrambler on tour last season.
Brendon Todd: $8100
Odds to Win: 50/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 88
Strokes Gained: Putting: 36
Total Driving: 103
Scrambling: 22
Proximity: 34
Analysis: Todd is coming off of a missed cut at the Humana Challenge, but should bounce back this week at Pebble Beach. Todd excels on shorter courses and all three of the courses in play measure less than 7,000 yards. Todd isn’t the longest hitter on tour, but he’s great with his irons and is a very good putter. He also posted a T-9th place finish here in 2012.
Kevin Streelman: $7100
Odds to Win: 75/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 55
Strokes Gained: Putting: 118
Total Driving: 22
Scrambling: 112
Proximity: 81
Analysis: Streelman has a ton of talent and offers terrific value at this price point. While his putting stats aren’t overwhelming, he is a very streaky putter that can drop putts from all over the green when he’s locked in. He also has a great track record at this event, making the cut in each of his last four attempts.
Kevin Chappell: $6900
Odds to Win: 94/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 53
Strokes Gained: Putting: 112
Total Driving: 7
Scrambling: 116
Proximity: 9
Analysis: Chappell is my dark horse to contend this week. He is coming off of a poor second-round at the Farmers Insurance Open, which led to a missed cut. Prior to that, he had posted three Top-30 finishes. He has also had decent success at this event, making the cut here in three of the last four seasons.
Bryce Molder: $6700
Odds to Win: 94/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 146
Strokes Gained: Putting: 37
Total Driving: 182
Scrambling: 45
Proximity: 63
Analysis: Molder is another horse for the course this week. He has made the cut here five straight years, posting four Top-12 finishes. He may not be the best off the tee, but he is typically ranked in the Top-50 in strokes gained putting every season. This is a great week to target Molder, as driving accuracy is not indicative of success here.
Author’s Note: The stats listed above are an average of the 2013-14 & 2014-15 seasons.