Fantasy Golf: Honda Classic Expert Picks & Preview
James Hahn took home the trophy in last week’s Northern Trust Open by beating Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey in a playoff. Sergio Garcia fumbled away a chance for a win by bogeying each of his final two holes. While I was pulling for Sergio (since he was featured in last week’s picks), it was still a great week. We don’t like to toot our own horn around here, but 7/8 picks made the cut last week, 6/8 picks finished in the top 22, and 5/8 picks finished in the top 14.
Event Preview
The PGA Tour now heads to Florida for this week’s Honda Classic. This week’s event features a star-studded field including the likes of Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, and Rickie Fowler to name a few. This event is played at one of the toughest courses that the players will see all season. PGA National is a Par-70 that stretches just over 7100 yards. This course features over 100 bunkers, as well as the infamous three-hole stretch known as the “Bear Trap,” which was designed by the “Golden Bear” Jack Nicklaus himself.
This course is one that rewards those that are accurate, both off the tee and with their irons. In addition to the usual strokes gained (tee to green and putting) that we target each week, ball striking, scrambling, and bogey avoidance are all important stats to consider. This event is also one where we see the same golfers play well here year in and year out. Obviously current form is important, but course history may be an even bigger factor this week. The event will feature the standard 70 and ties cut after Friday’s round, making it imperative to have as many golfers make the cut as possible.
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Ball Striking
4) Scrambling
5) Bogey Avoidance
Rory McIlroy: $15700
Odds to Win: 4/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 1
Strokes Gained: Putting: 41
Ball Striking: 7
Scrambling: 88
Bogey Avoidance: 7
Analysis: McIlroy is the chalk play of the week. I was hoping DraftKings would stick to their difficult pricing and list McIlroy around $17,000, but at least he’s above $15,000. I’m still going to predict that he’ll be one of the highest owned golfers this week. McIlroy loves this course. In addition to a win here in 2012, he lost in a playoff here last season. He’s long and straight off the tee, he has a great short game, and he doesn’t make many mistakes.
Keegan Bradley: $9800
Odds to Win: 27/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 19
Strokes Gained: Putting: 68
Ball Striking: 41
Scrambling: 41
Bogey Avoidance: 54
Analysis: Bradley is a Florida resident whose trends are converging for a big week. He loves playing in Florida, as evidenced by his three top 12 finishes here in the last three years. Bradley is also coming off of a T-4th finish at last week’s Northern Trust Open. If he would have had a better opening round (+2), he could have easily taken home the trophy. If all of that wasn’t enough, how about the fact that he is ranked in the top 70 in all of the important stats this week?
Rickie Fowler: $9700
Odds to Win: 28/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 114
Strokes Gained: Putting: 40
Ball Striking: 96
Scrambling: 27
Bogey Avoidance: 70
Analysis: Fowler will not be a popular play this week. There are quite a few options at his price point and the masses will likely look at other options thanks to Fowler’s slow start to the season. All I see is a top 10 machine that is underpriced. Fowler has played extremely well here over the last three years, posting T-7th, T-14th, and T-24th place finishes. His stats are a bit misleading, as they include his play from last season when he first started making changes to his swing.
Chris Kirk: $8100
Odds to Win: 63/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 45
Strokes Gained: Putting: 71
Ball Striking: 96
Scrambling: 24
Bogey Avoidance: 27
Analysis: Kirk is a very safe play this week. In fantasy golf, I love the safe plays. Kirk makes a ton of cuts and he posts a ton of respectable finishes. That can’t be said for many players at his price point. Kirk’s stats match this golf course well and it’s no surprise to see that he’s played well here in the past. He’s made the cut here in each of his last four attempts, recording finishes of T-12th, T-51st, T-56th, and T-29th. If you decide to fade McIlory this week, you can load up on the mid-range options.
Billy Horschel: $8000
Odds to Win: 51/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 83
Strokes Gained: Putting: 98
Ball Striking: 2
Scrambling: 132
Bogey Avoidance: 57
Analysis: You don’t know how excited I am about Billy-HO this week. No one seems to be talking about him, which is exactly what I was hoping for. Horschel has not played very well at this event in the past and his best finish in his last four events is a T-30th at the Farmers Insurance Open. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff. Horschel was born in Florida, he’s a gator, and he currently lives there. This is a home game if there ever were such a thing in golf. Horschel is also one of the best ball strikers in the world, ranking 1st last season and 3rd this season.
Brendan Steele: $7400
Odds to Win: 91/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 41
Strokes Gained: Putting: 90
Ball Striking: 45
Scrambling: 69
Bogey Avoidance: 50
Analysis: Steele seems to make my list of suggested plays each and every week. Then as the week goes on, I tend to talk myself out of him. Steele has been terrific this season, making the cut in each of the eight events that he has played in. He is also perfect at this event, making the cut each of the last four years. So basically, his stats line up with the course, he is coming into the event in good form, and he has a good track record at this event. We can’t ask for much more for $7,400.
Fredrik Jacobson: $7200
Odds to Win: 91/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 149
Strokes Gained: Putting: 3
Ball Striking: 175
Scrambling: 46
Bogey Avoidance: 56
Analysis: Freddy Yaks loves him some PGA National. He is a perfect 6/6 at this event, finishing inside the top 30 every single year. He is consistently one of the best putters on tour. While he may not be the best ball striker, he makes up for it with his flat stick. Jacobson lives in Florida and is very comfortable on these Bermuda Grass greens. If I had to guess, Jacobson would top the list of highest owned players this week. You don’t want to miss out on the cheap golfer that everyone else has, especially in cash games.
Jason Kokrak: $6700
Odds to Win: 130/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 68
Strokes Gained: Putting: 52
Ball Striking: 79
Scrambling: 56
Bogey Avoidance: 42
Analysis: If you decide to roster Rory McIlroy this week, you are going to have to save some money somewhere. Kokrak is a viable value play, as he is ranked in the top 80 in all of the important stats this week. Kokrak has also made the cut here in two of the last three years and we all know how important knowledge of this course can be.
Author’s Note: The stats listed above are an average of the 2013-14 & 2014-15 seasons.