Fantasy Golf - John Deere Classic Picks & Projections (DK)

John Deere Classic Preview

What’s up Grinders, I’m getting the PGA column out a little late this week so I’ll keep the preview short and sweet. This is the last tournament before the Open Championship next weekend. This week’s event will be played at the TPC Deere Run. The course is a par-71 that measures 7,268 yards. It is one of the shorter tracks and was the third easiest par-71 on tour last season. You can expect a lot of birdies to be made this week. With that in mind, the stats to use this week are greens in regulation, strokes gained putting, and par breakers.

John Deere Picks – DraftKings

Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s quickly recap last week’s picks at the Greenbrier Classic. Overall, it was a pretty disappointing week as two of the cuts missed the cut. The picks and their corresponding finishes were as follows: Gary Woodland (T-72), Brendon De Jonge (T-64), Daniel Summerhays (MC), Cameron Tringale (T-4), and Scott Brown (MC). We’ll try to right the ship this week.

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Steve Stricker: $9,900 – Anytime a golfer can win an event 3 times, he has to have an affinity for the course. In addition to his 3 wins here, he’s also posted 4 Top 10 finishes. While Stricker is only a part-timer on the tour these days, he’s my odds on favorite to take home the trophy this week. He’s one of the best ball strikers in the game and is a wizard around the greens. Plus, he doesn’t miss cuts. Ever. So not only does he provide nice upside, but he’s a lock to make the cut as well.

Chris Kirk: $9,100 – Kirk is a cut making machine. He’s now made 22 consecutive cuts which is basically unheard of unless your name is Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker, or Jason Day. Kirk has finished in the Top 30 in each of his last 3 tries at the John Deere and his stats all line up well for another strong finish here this season. Kirk is solid all around as he is ranked 73rd in ball striking, 36th in strokes gained putting, and 41st in par-breakers.

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Charles Howell III: $8,400 – CH3’s style of play fits this course beautifully. He can hit the ball a mile and he hits a ton of greens (15th in GIR%). He should be able to take advantage of this short track, especially if he can get his putter going. Howell is only ranked 90th in strokes gained putting this season, but was ranked 17th in that category last year. He has already made 20 cuts this season with 6 Top 10 finishes. Howell qualified for the Open Championship, but turned down the invitation for family reasons. He may have some good karma on his side this week.

Michael Thompson: $7,700 – This tournament is going to be a birdie-fest which means you are going to have to target guys that can shoot low rounds. Thompson fits the bill this week as he is ranked 43rd in par-breakers this season. If that’s not enough, how about the fact that he’s ranked 11th in strokes gained putting and 67th in ball striking. He finished in 12th place here in 2011 and I like his chances for a Top 30 finish this week.

Patrick Rodgers: $6,700 – Rodgers has some extremely high expectations placed on him after multiple comparisons to Tiger Woods. He was the #1 ranked amateur in the world before turning pro and so far he’s looked good on the PGA Tour. He’s made 4 consecutive cuts with Top 55 finishes in all 4 events. He’s made the cut at this event before and he’s getting plenty of love from the oddsmakers with odds of taking home the trophy set at 78/1. Could this be Rodgers’ coming out party similar to that of Jordan Spieth’s breakthrough win in this event last year?

John Deere Classic Projections – DraftKings

In an effort to continue to improve the PGA projections, I’ve amped them up a bit this week. In addition to the Vegas lines and 2014 Cut Percentage, this week will also factor in current form (last 5 events played) as well as course history (past 4 years). These are all weighted to create a Player Score that rates a golfer from 1-100 for that particular event. The player score is then used to come up with a projection based on the previous fantasy outputs of the same event in prior years.

Player Name Avg. Odds Last 5 Avg. 2013 2012 2011 2010 Events – 2014 Cuts – 2014 Player Score Projection Salary $ / Point
Patrick Rodgers 78.27 52 15 102 3 3 84.79 96.74 $6,700 $69.26
Chris Kirk 32.64 21 22 30 22 20 19 95.80 129.00 $9,100 $70.54
Billy Hurley III 50.45 31 8 21 15 91.36 114.00 $8,200 $71.93
J.J. Henry 96.36 53 7 13 56 62 24 14 77.57 91.66 $6,700 $73.09
Brendon de Jonge 40.55 34 54 19 7 7 24 19 92.85 119.00 $8,700 $73.11
Steve Stricker 11.36 21 10 5 1 1 8 7 98.17 135.00 $9,900 $73.33
Ryan Moore 20.18 40 22 8 17 13 95.24 126.50 $9,300 $73.52
Tim Clark 131.82 68 36 7 19 9 65.03 78.69 $5,800 $73.71
Andres Romero 96.36 54 44 103 21 19 10 74.85 89.41 $6,600 $73.82
Ben Crane 74.91 62 98 13 18 12 81.20 95.05 $7,100 $74.70
Charles Howell III 57.36 37 33 77 5 39 23 20 90.31 111.50 $8,400 $75.34
John Senden 34.82 48 73 4 12 19 15 91.98 116.50 $8,800 $75.54
Michael Thompson 68.36 52 12 19 14 86.77 101.50 $7,700 $75.86
David Hearn 57.27 44 2 77 68 22 15 87.72 104.00 $7,900 $75.96
Jordan Spieth 10.18 20 1 58 19 16 97.32 131.50 $10,000 $76.05
Stewart Cink 78.55 43 119 74 19 16 80.35 94.49 $7,200 $76.20
Luke Guthrie 72.27 55 119 5 22 15 82.00 95.61 $7,300 $76.35
Martin Flores 76.55 69 4 58 123 22 16 79.66 93.92 $7,200 $76.66
Alex Cejka 116.36 74 25 4 4 73.87 87.15 $6,700 $76.88
Retief Goosen 95.09 41 21 16 73.89 87.71 $6,800 $77.52
Jason Bohn 90.91 60 22 91 30 21 19 11 77.98 92.79 $7,200 $77.59
Scott Langley 82.73 44 33 152 24 15 77.20 89.97 $7,000 $77.80
Brian Davis 115.91 59 33 77 45 62 24 16 71.51 86.02 $6,700 $77.89
Ben Martin 47.73 37 38 21 11 88.35 106.50 $8,300 $77.93
Shawn Stefani 79.64 42 133 11 8 77.38 91.10 $7,100 $77.94
Chad Campbell 114.55 46 15 36 56 34 14 8 74.33 88.28 $6,900 $78.16
Harris English 22.73 57 15 21 16 92.94 121.50 $9,500 $78.19
Zach Johnson 13.09 58 2 1 3 21 18 15 94.63 124.00 $9,700 $78.23
Robert Streb 127.27 64 22 15 13 70.72 84.33 $6,600 $78.27
Troy Merritt 140.91 57 30 123 16 6 58.06 70.22 $5,500 $78.32
Danny Lee 129.55 57 30 22 9 65.69 80.38 $6,300 $78.38
Robert Garrigus 61.55 54 25 65 20 14 85.69 97.87 $7,700 $78.67
Andrew Svoboda 136.36 41 61 19 11 66.28 81.51 $6,500 $79.75
Kevin Chappell 64.36 56 45 21 15 85.12 97.31 $7,800 $80.16
Jerry Kelly 87.82 67 4 36 103 17 11 77.95 92.23 $7,400 $80.24
Bud Cauley 68.00 47 141 72 17 8 78.13 93.36 $7,500 $80.34
Will Wilcox 116.45 56 12 8 64.17 78.12 $6,300 $80.64
David Toms 93.27 56 WD 16 9 71.51 85.46 $6,900 $80.74
David Lingmerth 113.64 67 22 12 65.29 79.25 $6,400 $80.76
Russell Henley 95.45 75 21 11 66.77 82.64 $6,700 $81.08
Tim Wilkinson 136.36 36 105 21 15 64.06 77.56 $6,300 $81.23
Brian Harman 98.64 70 133 19 24 16 71.19 84.89 $6,900 $81.28
Davis Love III 145.45 50 12 18 14 65.47 79.81 $6,500 $81.44
John Huh 116.36 76 73 21 12 66.07 80.94 $6,600 $81.54
Gonzalo Fernand… 115.91 62 17 12 66.51 82.07 $6,700 $81.64
Chris Stroud 35.73 41 68 71 19 14 88.85 109.00 $8,900 $81.65
Boo Weekley 96.82 58 27 77 21 18 14 77.30 90.54 $7,400 $81.74
Daniel Summerhays 59.64 46 4 110 74 22 17 85.90 99.00 $8,100 $81.82
Camilo Villegas 99.09 48 71 58 23 16 74.79 88.84 $7,300 $82.17
Bo Van Pelt 99.55 45 20 12 69.61 83.76 $6,900 $82.37
Steve Marino 138.64 53 65 9 5 62.99 74.74 $6,200 $82.96
Robert Allenby 181.82 85 86 24 11 46.68 60.06 $5,000 $83.24
Hudson Swafford 127.27 57 22 9 59.77 71.91 $6,000 $83.43
Troy Matteson 161.36 89 27 2 71 10 19 5 51.36 65.71 $5,500 $83.70
Scott Brown 140.00 77 22 7 24 17 63.87 76.43 $6,400 $83.74
Morgan Hoffmann 110.55 88 15 103 24 13 67.34 83.20 $7,000 $84.13
Kyle Stanley 136.36 82 141 19 2 24 13 60.38 72.48 $6,100 $84.16
Steven Bowditch 127.73 84 12 102 38 23 12 62.20 73.61 $6,200 $84.23
Sang-Moon Bae 87.73 68 102 20 12 73.25 86.59 $7,300 $84.31
Tommy Gainey 150.00 70 98 13 90 22 8 53.53 66.84 $5,700 $85.28
Johnson Wagner 190.91 77 105 20 7 44.81 58.37 $5,000 $85.66
Jonathan Byrd 197.73 84 33 54 131 21 20 12 48.03 62.32 $5,400 $86.65
Ted Potter, Jr. 145.45 68 73 66 22 9 54.96 69.09 $6,000 $86.84
Kevin Streelman 45.27 80 44 8 105 17 11 83.80 96.18 $8,400 $87.34
Scott Stallings 118.18 61 141 150 22 21 9 62.37 74.17 $6,600 $88.98
Heath Slocum 168.18 42 44 77 38 19 10 58.15 70.79 $6,300 $89.00
Patrick Cantlay 143.18 79 4 2 51.25 65.14 $5,800 $89.04
Andrew Loupe 168.18 64 18 8 49.01 64.01 $5,800 $90.60
Jeff Overton 117.27 79 154 30 19 12 63.49 75.86 $7,000 $92.27
Sean O’Hair 197.73 80 113 91 22 11 44.23 57.24 $5,300 $92.59
John Peterson 170.45 76 77 20 7 48.91 63.45 $5,900 $92.99
Roberto Castro 144.55 81 68 21 9 54.38 68.53 $6,400 $93.39
Kevin Na 30.82 41 19 14 85.80 98.44 $9,200 $93.46
Josh Teater 197.73 63 36 45 21 24 15 53.87 67.40 $6,300 $93.47
William McGirt 143.18 57 86 77 60 23 13 59.38 71.35 $6,700 $93.90
Ricky Barnes 162.73 63 133 45 74 22 14 54.37 67.96 $6,400 $94.17
Rory Sabbatini 119.55 84 149 19 22 14 61.65 73.04 $6,900 $94.47
Charlie Beljan 139.09 64 86 143 22 9 55.87 69.66 $6,600 $94.75
Pat Perez 118.18 83 119 155 90 39 20 17 63.98 76.99 $7,300 $94.81
John Merrick 143.18 67 54 59 39 21 17 63.32 75.30 $7,200 $95.62
Tyrone Van Aswe… 188.64 44 21 14 50.39 64.58 $6,200 $96.01
Richard H. Lee 145.45 63 110 23 12 53.49 66.27 $6,400 $96.57
Jhonattan Vegas 209.09 73 77 68 18 13 47.82 61.76 $6,000 $97.15
Will MacKenzie 181.82 100 30 139 21 11 46.29 59.50 $5,800 $97.48
Jamie Lovemark 250.00 79 45 16 10 43.92 56.11 $5,500 $98.01
John Rollins 213.64 70 86 65 92 24 12 44.36 57.81 $5,700 $98.60
Brice Garnett 193.18 82 23 17 46.11 58.94 $5,900 $100.11
Jim Renner 200.00 83 74 21 6 42.87 54.42 $5,500 $101.06
Rod Pampling 270.45 86 54 119 45 15 6 3 38.71 49.91 $5,100 $102.19
Jason Allred 220.45 53 5 3 43.67 55.55 $5,700 $102.61
Greg Chalmers 190.91 80 125 90 12 23 13 48.72 62.89 $6,500 $103.36
Chad Collins 331.82 94 21 24 9 32.71 47.09 $4,900 $104.07
Ryuji Imada 400.00 63 91 74 75 5 3 32.95 47.65 $5,000 $104.93
Ken Duke 218.18 74 48 91 21 15 46.77 60.63 $6,400 $105.56
Brian Gay 270.45 77 61 110 9 23 15 41.27 51.04 $5,400 $105.81
Brian Stuard 159.09 100 115 22 12 47.48 61.19 $6,500 $106.22
Mark Wilson 309.09 100 86 45 30 39 21 6 31.56 45.96 $4,900 $106.62
Jim Herman 231.82 89 10 38 17 9 42.64 53.86 $5,800 $107.69
Alex Prugh 286.36 80 45 12 3 35.95 48.21 $5,200 $107.85
Lucas Glover 222.73 94 15 22 7 41.70 51.60 $5,600 $108.53
Nicholas Thompson 209.09 100 12 92 26 9 42.57 53.29 $5,800 $108.83
Kevin Kisner 227.27 73 110 90 22 14 41.76 52.16 $5,700 $109.27
Bryce Molder 204.55 89 27 156 30 20 11 44.02 56.68 $6,200 $109.39
Trevor Immelman 227.27 81 119 24 11 38.10 49.34 $5,400 $109.44
Kevin Tway 281.82 77 131 19 6 32.58 46.52 $5,200 $111.78
Peter Malnati 268.18 84 14 4 31.56 45.39 $5,100 $112.35
Eric Axley 259.09 73 6 5 39.90 50.47 $5,700 $112.94
Charlie Wi 222.73 71 125 116 15 21 9 41.96 52.73 $6,000 $113.79
Justin Hicks 245.45 81 33 90 24 17 43.20 54.99 $6,300 $114.58
Lee Janzen 445.45 91 8 45 68 5 3 30.09 43.14 $5,000 $115.91
D.A. Points 286.36 100 139 102 38 75 22 9 31.04 43.70 $5,100 $116.70
Chris Smith 281.82 88 150 149 5 2 28.87 42.01 $5,100 $121.41
David Duval 477.27 85 147 77 135 75 10 3 20.59 35.24 $4,400 $124.87
Tim Herron 329.55 69 11 7 31.23 44.83 $5,600 $124.92
D.H. Lee 377.27 93 73 16 5 26.95 39.75 $5,000 $125.79
Paul Goydos 531.82 100 103 2 18 3 18.15 32.41 $4,100 $126.49
James Driscoll 275.00 87 77 60 56 22 11 36.82 48.78 $6,200 $127.10
Scott Gardiner 395.45 87 113 17 6 24.95 38.06 $4,900 $128.75
Troy Kelly 418.18 86 77 1 0 22.92 36.36 $4,700 $129.25
Bronson La’Cassie 363.64 86 14 6 26.23 39.19 $5,100 $130.15
Tim Petrovic 290.91 83 54 130 6 2 31.13 44.26 $5,800 $131.03
Wes Roach 327.27 84 18 8 27.49 40.31 $5,300 $131.47
Edward Loar 472.73 100 140 15 1 14.68 30.72 $4,100 $133.46
Paul Stankowski 568.18 64 74 49 1 1 29.86 42.57 $5,700 $133.89
Matt Bettencourt 431.82 94 61 66 146 49 10 3 23.58 37.49 $5,100 $136.03
Joe Ogilvie 495.45 100 149 60 21 10 3 18.51 33.54 $4,600 $137.14
Cameron Wilson 481.82 100 2 0 13.95 29.59 $4,100 $138.55
Daniel Chopra 522.73 100 140 70 12 2 14.51 30.16 $4,200 $139.27
Jordan Niebrugge 359.09 100 1 0 19.99 34.11 $4,800 $140.73
Cameron Beckman 445.45 87 119 45 135 8 3 23.42 36.93 $5,200 $140.81
Derek Ernst 531.82 100 73 24 8 17.28 31.85 $4,600 $144.43
Marc Turnesa 472.73 84 91 3 1 22.81 35.80 $5,200 $145.25
Doug LaBelle II 431.82 86 61 8 3 27.90 40.88 $6,000 $146.78
Brad Fritsch 290.91 92 139 14 4 25.97 38.62 $5,700 $147.59
D.J. Trahan 454.55 100 141 143 45 92 3 0 17.07 31.29 $4,700 $150.23
Steven Ihm 490.91 100 86 12.20 27.90 $4,200 $150.54
Dicky Pride 590.91 100 48 25 116 9 1 13.89 29.03 $4,500 $155.02
Tag Ridings 509.09 89 73 103 9 4 20.08 34.67 $5,400 $155.75
Miguel Angel Ca… 313.64 74 143 11 4 28.38 41.44 $6,500 $156.84
David Gossett 545.45 100 1 0 9.85 25.08 $4,000 $159.50
Benjamin Alvarado 613.64 91 6 1 10.55 26.21 $4,200 $160.26
Scott McCarron 681.82 100 147 135 92 9 2 8.83 24.51 $4,000 $163.17
Justin Bolli 572.73 100 125 92 3 0 9.92 25.64 $4,200 $163.79
Kevin Foley 590.91 100 11 4 10.96 26.77 $4,500 $168.09
Alex Aragon 704.55 100 14 2 7.32 23.95 $4,200 $175.37
Todd Hamilton 490.91 89 98 130 22 21 12.20 27.34 $4,800 $175.59
Len Mattiace 613.64 90 1 1 18.42 32.98 $5,800 $175.87
Jesper Parnevik 668.18 93 98 3 1 13.06 28.46 $5,300 $186.20

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious