Fantasy Golf Picks: Humana Challenge
After a two-week stint in Hawaii, the PGA Tour heads to California for the Humana Challenge.
Event Preview
This is one of the more entertaining tournaments to watch, as it is a birdie-fest that takes place on three different courses. It is the only time during the year that the cut isn’t made until after the first three rounds of play. This obviously makes the cut a little less important in daily fantasy golf, but it’s still important to target the players that are going to be around on Sunday.
Each player will play one round on each of the three courses before the cut is made. These are three of the shortest and easiest courses that the players will see all season and we can expect scores to be extremely low. Here is a quick recap of each course:
PGA West (Palmer Private) – This course is a Par-72, measuring only 6,930 yards. It will be played during the first three rounds of the tournament and will be the location of the final round on Sunday.
PGA West (Nicklaus Private) – This course is also a Par-72, measuring only 6,951 yards. This course will be used during the first three rounds of the tournament.
La Quinta Country Club – The third course is the longest of the three at 7,060 yards. It is also a Par-72 and will also be used during the first three rounds of the tournament.
Given the short length of the three courses, accuracy is a premium over distance this week. That’s not to say that bombers don’t have success here, but they are going to have to be accurate with their irons in order to compete. Tournament history and recent form is always important, as well as the key statistics for the week.
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Birdie Average
4) Proximity from 125-150 Yards
Ryan Palmer: $11800
Odds to Win: 21.3
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 15
Strokes Gained: Putting: 35
Birdie Average: 9
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 53
Analysis: Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar are fine options this week, but we are under the constraints of a salary cap. Palmer is a much better play in daily fantasy golf. Palmer has the trifecta for this week; he is in great form (Top-25 in each of his last seven events worldwide), he has great history at this event (Top-6 finishes in three of the last four years), and he excels in the key statistics that we are looking for (he’s a great putter that racks up birdies).
Zach Johnson: $10800
Odds to Win: 28.1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 24
Strokes Gained: Putting: 79
Birdie Average: 54
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 29
Analysis: Johnson finished with a disappointing T-64th last week at the Sony Open, but had posted two straight Top-10 finishes before that. He should get right back in the horse this week at the Humana Challenge, where he has had terrific success through the years. In his last four attempts here, he has posted four Top-23 finishes. He is one of the best in the game with a wedge in his hand and makes a strong play in a week where most gamers may overlook him.
Webb Simpson: $9700
Odds to Win: 33.5
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 37
Strokes Gained: Putting: 34
Birdie Average: 26
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 18
Analysis: Simpson is my dark horse to win the tournament this week. His stats suggest that he is in for a strong finish, as he is ranked in the Top-40 in strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: putting, birdie average, and proximity to the hole from 125-150 yards out. Simpson has yet to break through at this event, but it could be coming this year. He is coming off of a strong T-13th place finish at the Sony Open.
Brandt Snedeker: $9100
Odds to Win: 39.1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 73
Strokes Gained: Putting: 27
Birdie Average: 83
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 11
Analysis: Snedeker is now a full year removed from his knee injury. He’s coming off of a down 2013-14 season, but is primed for a big year, as he has already posted two Top-10 finishes in his first three events this season. Snedeker has always been a great putter and looking at his stats, he’s one of the best on Tour from 125-150 yards out. He has a nice track record at this event and will be a staple across all of my lineups this week.
Charles Howell III: $8100
Odds to Win: 64
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 30
Strokes Gained: Putting: 93
Birdie Average: 47
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 153
Analysis: Howell, aka Mr. January – May, will find himself on many of my PGA rosters over the next couple of months. While he hasn’t won an event in quite a while, he regularly finds himself inside the Top-10 and he rarely misses cuts this time of year. He has made the cut here in each of his last five tries and has posted three Top-26 finishes during that stretch. Howell makes a ton of birdies and will certainly be around on Sunday.
Jerry Kelly: $7400
Odds to Win: 67.9
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 65
Strokes Gained: Putting: 52
Birdie Average: 45
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 29
Analysis: Kelly was a strong play for me last week and I’m going back to the well again this week. He’s not the longest hitter off the tee, but again, this isn’t an event where you need length. Kelly is an accurate player that loves to play on the shorter courses. He has made the cut here in each of the last four seasons and he hasn’t missed a cut yet this season. See what I’m getting at here? For a player at his price point, all we need is for him to make the cut. Kelly should do that and hopefully a bit more.
Tony Finau: $6900
Odds to Win: 71.1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 14
Strokes Gained: Putting: 143
Birdie Average: 11
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 39
Analysis: Finau is one of the most talented players to come from the group of Web.com Tour graduates. If you don’t know his name yet, you will soon enough. In his first six PGA Tour events this season, he has posted four Top-15 finishes. He’s been a boom or bust fantasy option, but is ranked 11th in birdie average this season. If he can drop a few putts this week, he could make some serious noise on Sunday.
Brendan Steele: $5700
Odds to Win: 126.7
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 59
Strokes Gained: Putting: 72
Birdie Average: 58
Proximity from 125-150 Yards: 34
Analysis: When we get down to players in this price range, all we are hoping for is to find a player that will make the cut. Anything after that is just gravy. Steele fits the mold, as he is a player that makes a lot of cuts (4/4 this season). He doesn’t contend in many events, but hey he’s only $5,700 this week. He doesn’t have a great track record at this event, but he does have the right stats to play well here. He is ranked in the Top-75 in all of the key statistics for the week.
Author’s Note: The stats listed are from the 2013-14 season. The sample size from the 2014-15 season is still relatively small.