Fantasy Golf Picks: Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Event Preview
Hey Grinders, the PGA Tour is back! I don’t know what it is, but fantasy golf is my favorite sport to sweat. Not only do you get to follow your golfers all day, but your entry fee covers a period of four days. Hopefully everyone enjoyed their mini-PGA break. My favorite part of the break had to be Bubba Watson’s Christmas rap. Before we get into the picks for the week, I’d like to thank all of my loyal readers. If there is anything that you’d like to see added to the column, feel free to leave a comment below. I’m always trying to make improvements anyway that I can.
The PGA Tour is back this week for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Every winner on tour last year is invited to play in this tournament and all have accepted the invitation with the exception of Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, and Martin Kaymer. That leaves us with 34 entrants this week at the Hyundai event that features no cut. In a no-cut event, you can afford to take a few more chances with your fantasy selections.
This tournament will be held at The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in Hawaii. The course tips out at 7,452 yards, but it’s not as long of a course as it may seem on paper. The change in elevation makes the course play much shorter and the course hides some of its length in the fact that it’s a Par-73, featuring only three Par-3’s. This course features wide fairways and wide greens, which is why last year’s field hit nearly 77% of the greens.
Key Statistics for the Week
Looking at previous results in this event, this is not a course that favors the bombers. It has typically been dominated by those that excel with their irons and those that are good with their flat stick. Length certainly isn’t a disadvantage on this course, but you have to be able to knock it close and finish your birdie opportunities in order to be in contention. The three main statistics that I will be targeting this week are: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, and Par 4 Scoring Average.
DraftKings Fantasy Picks
I have to applaud DK for their pricing this week. The favorites to win are typically in the $11,000 – $12,000 range, which often leads to a very high percentage of ownership. That shouldn’t be the case this week as both Bubba Watson and Jason Day are close to $14,000. You can certainly fit one of these two into your lineup, but it’s going to come at the expense of the rest of your team. I will be avoiding both of the favorites this week in lieu of a well-rounded lineup. Here are my favorite picks for the week:
Jimmy Walker: $10,300
Odds to Win: 15.5
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 28
Strokes Gained: Putting: 11
Par 4 Scoring: 12
Analysis: Walker played in this event last season for the first time in his career. He finished tied for 21st, which was a somewhat disappointing finish. He should be much more comfortable on the course this season. Walker is long off the tee, he hits a ton of greens, and he’s one of the best putters in golf. That kind of game travels anywhere. Given his price of $10,300, I like him considerably more than the likes of Bubba Watson, Jason Day, and Matt Kuchar. Walker is coming off of a career year and should get 2015 started off on the right foot.
Zach Johnson: $10100
Odds to Win: 15.6
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 24
Strokes Gained: Putting: 79
Par 4 Scoring: 41
Analysis: Johnson is the defending champion at this event. He finished with an impressive 19-under to walk away with a one stroke victory over Jordan Spieth. Johnson has played in this event in each of the last five years, so he knows this course very well. As I mentioned above, this is not a course that is dominated by bombers off the tee. Johnson is a very accurate ball striker that can putt with the best of them. It’s always hard to defend your title in golf, but Johnson’s game fits this course well.
Chris Kirk: $9800
Odds to Win: 16.1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 43
Strokes Gained: Putting: 22
Par 4 Scoring: 24
Analysis: After a strong finish in the FedExCup Playoffs, Kirk kept it going to start the 2014-15 season. He finished tied for fourth at the McGladrey Classic and then he tied for 14th at the WGC-HSCB Championship. He’s also had great success at this event, posting top-16 finishes in each of his last two tries. As you can see from his statistics, his game fits this course well. He is an excellent putter and has really scored well on Par-4’s.
Ryan Moore: $9200
Odds to Win: 18.8
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 22
Strokes Gained: Putting: 91
Par 4 Scoring: 14
Analysis: Moore really faded toward the end of last season and then missed the cut in his opening event of the 2014-15 season. After that, he proved that current form wasn’t necessary to win a tournament, as he won the CIMB Classic. He’s a recommended play this week given his strong statistics and his track record at this event. Moore isn’t the best putter on tour, but he’s excellent with his irons. He’s also ranked 14th in Par-4 scoring. Moore has also posted two top-10 finishes in his last four tries here.
Kevin Streelman: $8000
Odds to Win: 29.8
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 89
Strokes Gained: Putting: 102
Par 4 Scoring: 92
Analysis: If you look at his statistics, you may not be sold on Streelman this week. That said, his strokes gained putting stat is a little misleading. He is a very streaky putter, who is one of the best in golf when he’s locked in with his flat stick. Streelman doesn’t hit a ton of greens in regulation, but that shouldn’t be a problem this week given the size of the greens. Streelman finished tied for third at this event last season and may be able to parlay that into another strong finish this time around.
Brendon Todd: $8000
Odds to Win: 30.1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 94
Strokes Gained: Putting: 6
Par 4 Scoring: 41
Analysis: Todd has never played at this event. That’s typically a concern, as first-timers typically don’t fare all that well here. That said, Todd has the game to contend at a course like this. There was a point last season, where Todd was a terrific play every single week. This is a great time to buy low on him before his price skyrockets. He’s an elite putter and was ranked 41st in Par-4 scoring last season. I’m predicting him to buck the trend and be in mix come Sunday afternoon.
John Senden: $7300
Odds to Win: 41
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 62
Strokes Gained: Putting: 13
Par 4 Scoring: 73
Analysis: Senden comes into this event in great form. In his last five starts worldwide, he has four top-25 finishes, including two inside the top-10. He is one of those steady, reliable golfers that I love to target in fantasy golf. He’s a solid ball-striker, he scores well on Par-4’s, and he’s one of the best putters on tour. Senden hasn’t played in this event in eight years, but finished with a respectable tied for 19th in his last appearance. Senden is an affordable option that allows you to take a couple of the more expensive golfers.
Charley Hoffman: $7100
Odds to Win: 45.5
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 33
Strokes Gained: Putting: 44
Par 4 Scoring: 12
Analysis: The Hoff really faded during the second half of the season, but he’s a player that typically plays well through the winter and into the Spring. He’s a lot like Charles Howell III in that way. The Hoff has already regained his form this season with a win at the OHL Classic. He’s solid tee to green and is a good putter once he gets there. He is also ranked 12th in Par-4 scoring. At his price, he’ll likely be a staple in my main cash game lineup.
Author’s Note: The stats listed are from the 2013-14 season. The sample size from the 2014-15 season is still small.