Fantasy Golf Picks: Sony Open in Hawaii
We had an exciting finish last week in an event that looked like Jimmy Walker was going to cruise to victory. Patrick Reed holed out for eagle on the 16th hole and eventually forced a playoff with Walker. At that point, Reed had all the momentum in his favor and he birdied the first hole of the playoff to walk away with the trophy.
Event Preview
The PGA Tour will stay in Hawaii this week for the Sony Open. While the event will be held in a similar location, there is a big difference between the two courses. This week’s event will be held at the Waialae Country Club. This is a much shorter track than the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort. It is a Par-70 that measures only 7,044 yards. There are only two Par 5’s on the course, which means most of the scoring is going to come on the Par 4’s.
Jimmy Walker is in the field this week and he returns as the defending champion of this event. While he was one of the best drivers in the field last year, this event is typically won by those that lead the field in putting. Length off the tee isn’t a disadvantage by any means, but length will only help on this course if you can hit fairways. This is an event where course history is extremely important, as we routinely see the same names at the top of the leaderboard each year.
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Par 4 Scoring – This course has only two Par-5’s on the scorecard. It also features some difficult Par-3’s.
4) Bogey Avoidance – This event typically turns into a shootout. The ability to avoid bogeys is helpful here.
Matt Kuchar: $12600
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 12
Strokes Gained: Putting: 15
Par 4 Scoring: 3
Bogey Avoidance: 9
Analysis: Kuchar is expensive, but he checks all of the boxes this week. He has posted three top-10 finishes in each of his last three tries at this event, he’s in great form, and he excels in all of the key statistics. Kuchar is ranked in the top-15 in strokes gained: tee to green, strokes gained: putting, Par 4 scoring, and bogey avoidance.
Brendon Todd: $9600
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 94
Strokes Gained: Putting: 6
Par 4 Scoring: 41
Bogey Avoidance: 21
Analysis: The Georgia alum will be looking for his second top-10 finish in a row, as he finished tied for eighth last week at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. Todd is coming off of a breakout season and he is set to make some noise in 2015. He has finished in the top-20 in each of his last two tries at this event and his stats match the type of golfer that should excel on this course.
Charles Howell III: $9100
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 30
Strokes Gained: Putting: 93
Par 4 Scoring: 6
Bogey Avoidance: 20
Analysis: This is Howell’s time to shine. He is typically a top-10 machine through the winter and the spring and then tends to fade away in the summer. He is ranked third in all-time earnings at this event, posting four top-10 finishes in the last five seasons. He’s one of the best on Tour in Par 4 scoring and should be one of the more popular plays in DFS this week.
Robert Streb: $8400
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 74
Strokes Gained: Putting: 75
Par 4 Scoring: 6
Bogey Avoidance: 89
Analysis: The current Fedex Cup points leader is playing some terrific golf right now. He currently leads the Tour in the all-around ranking, with four top-10 finishes here in the early going of the 2014-15 season. He hasn’t had great success at this event, but he’s made the cut in both of his appearances and seems poised for another strong finish this week.
Jerry Kelly: $7600
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 65
Strokes Gained: Putting: 52
Par 4 Scoring: 6
Bogey Avoidance: 13
Analysis: When you are looking for value plays, you want to target the ones that have a good chance of making the cut. Kelly should be a lock to stick around for the weekend, as this is one of his favorite events. He won it back in 2002 and has posted six top-10 finishes here in his career. He’s terrific on Par 4’s and is one of the best at avoiding bogeys.
Brian Stuard: $6800
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 100
Strokes Gained: Putting: 39
Par 4 Scoring: 41
Bogey Avoidance: 60
Analysis: Stuard is another horse for the course this week. He finished with a respectable tied for 25th here in 2010 and has since posted back-to-back top-10 finishes in each of the last two seasons. His stats fit the course well and he offers great value at a price tag of only $6,800 this week.
David Hearn: $6800
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 88
Strokes Gained: Putting: 29
Par 4 Scoring: 56
Bogey Avoidance: 18
Analysis: Once again, your value plays should be centered around making the cut. Hearn has as good of a chance to make the cut this week as any other player under $7,000. He has made the cut here in each of his last four attempts, with an average finish of 37th during that stretch.
Daniel Summerhays: $5700
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 85
Strokes Gained: Putting: 9
Par 4 Scoring: 41
Bogey Avoidance: 39
Analysis: Summerhays hasn’t had the best results at this event, but they haven’t been terrible either. He has made the cut and posted top-50 finishes in three of his last four tries here. His stats indicate that he should play well here, as he is good on Par 4’s and is one of the best putters on Tour.
Author’s Note: The stats listed are from the 2013-14 season. The sample size from the 2014-15 season is still small.