Fantasy Golf: WM Phoenix Open Preview & Picks
From one low-scoring event to another. The PGA Tour heads to Scottsdale this week for the Waste Management Open.
This is an exciting week for golf fans. Not only is this one of the more entertaining tournaments to watch, but Tiger Woods will play at this event for the first time since 2001.
Event Preview
In Tiger’s first appearance at this the Phoenix Open, he had a hole-in-one on the most raucous hole in golf. The Par 3 16th hole is basically a stadium where loud fans come together to cheer on their favorite golfers. It can hold up to 20,000 fans and is quite a site to see (I’m hoping to see it in person one of these years). A lot of golfers get in on the action by leading cheers and giving out merchandise. We’ve even seen the Gangnam Style Dance performed by James Hahn.
This week’s event features a very strong field. In addition to Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, and Matt Kuchar are a few other big names that will be out on the course this week. The TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course has had some renovations done since last season, but it is still a course that suits those that can bomb it off the tee. The course is a Par 71 that measures a lengthy 7,266 yards. The greens are aren’t all that difficult, so favor those that can bomb it and knock it close with wedges. The winning score at this event is typically between 14 and 20-under par, so we can expect another high scoring week in fantasy.
Key Statistics for the Week
1) Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained: Putting
3) Driving Distance
4) Scoring Average
Ryan Palmer: $9600
Odds to Win: 30/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 15
Strokes Gained: Putting: 35
Driving Distance: 23
Scoring Average: 15
Analysis: Palmer was my top play last week and I’m going back to the well again this week. He has now posted top-25 finishes in each of his last eight events worldwide, including an impressive T-10th last week at the Humana Challenge. Palmer is long off the tee (23rd in driving distance), he can putt with the best of them (35th in strokes gained), and he makes a ton of birdies. He has had decent success at the TPC Scottsdale and should have another strong finish this week.
Gary Woodland: $9400
Odds to Win: 31/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 14
Strokes Gained: Putting: 130
Driving Distance: 9
Scoring Average: 33
Analysis: There are only a select few that hit it farther than Woodland does. He is ranked 9th in driving distance and is coming into this event in great form, with three top-10 finishes in his last four events. Woodland isn’t the best putter on the planet, but he is streaky with the flat-stick and can roll in a few in a row if he gets hot. He has finished in the top-40 at this event in each of his last four tries, with his best finish coming in 2011 (T-5th).
Hunter Mahan: $8900
Odds to Win: 38/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 75
Strokes Gained: Putting: 57
Driving Distance: 45
Scoring Average: 50
Analysis: If you played fantasy golf last season, Mahan may not be a golfer that you want to trust in your cash games. The large number of missed cuts last season was a bit of an aberration, as he’s typically a good bet to play the weekend. This is an event where he should be very comfortable. He won this event in 2010 and he has finished in the top-30 in each of his last four tries. His stats fit the course nicely and he may find himself in contention come Sunday afternoon.
Brendan Steele: $8800
Odds to Win: 38/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 59
Strokes Gained: Putting: 72
Driving Distance: 28
Scoring Average: 85
Analysis: On the one hand, it was nice to see Steele finish T-2nd last week, as he was featured in my weekly picks. On the other hand, he is no longer a sleeper heading into the Phoenix Open. Steele has been terrific at this event in the past, posting top-6 finishes in each of the last three seasons. He is long off the tee and a fairly good putter. He did miss quite a few cuts last season, but current form and event history are both strongly in his favor this week.
Scott Piercy: $8400
Odds to Win: 44/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 25
Strokes Gained: Putting: 91
Driving Distance: 56
Scoring Average: 10
Analysis: Piercy is this week’s “Horse for the Course.” He has made the cut here in all six of his tries, including five top-15 finishes. Piercy is also coming into this event in great form, posting five top-30 finishes in his last six events. It will be interesting to see if the masses gravitate to Keegan Bradley at this same price point, but given his history at this event, Piercy is a no-brainer this week.
Charles Howell III: $6800
Odds to Win: 80/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 30
Strokes Gained: Putting: 93
Driving Distance: 9
Scoring Average: 24
Analysis: Howell is likely going to be a weekly feature in my PGA column. This is his time of year. He makes cuts and posts strong finishes during the early part of the season, that’s just what he does. Howell is long off the tee (9th in driving distance) and he has made four of his last five cuts at this event. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a top-20 finish from CH3 this week.
Jason Kokrak: $6900
Odds to Win: 83/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 32
Strokes Gained: Putting: 54
Driving Distance: 14
Scoring Average: 36
Analysis: Are you seeing a theme in the picks this week? They are all bombers. Kokrak fits right in with the group, as he is ranked 14th in driving distance. He is also coming into the event in great form, making five straight cuts with three top-20 finishes during that stretch. Kokrak hasn’t had great history at this event, but finished T-15th last season so he should be confident heading into the week.
Tony Finau: $6200
Odds to Win: 112/1
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green: 18
Strokes Gained: Putting: 145
Driving Distance: 5
Scoring Average: 8
Analysis: Finau hasn’t had quite the success as fellow rookie Justin Thomas, but he has been no slouch on the Tour. He has made five of his first seven cuts and has already posted four top-15 finishes. He is very long off the tee and makes as many birdies as anyone. It will be his first appearance at the TPC Scottsdale, but it’s a course that he should excel on.
Author’s Note: The stats listed are from the 2013-14 season. The sample size from the 2014-15 season is still relatively small.