Fantasy Grout, Week 14 – That Metaphorical Bump On Your Forehead
When I first saw it on his forehead, it looked like his head was trying to grow a new head. It had bloody tentacles, even though it wasn’t bleeding. It was a full 2.5 inches tall at first, and with the uncontrollable sobbing, it looked bigger than that.
That is what awaited me, when I walked into my son’s daycare. I was mortified, even though, as a kid, I had spawned roughly a hundred of those beauts. Still, he’s just a tyke who slipped on some ice, not some teenager on a skateboard, fighting gravity and losing. It was quite a relief when he cracked a smile in the car, after he found out were going to see the doctor with the fish tank. We never actually did see the doctor, as he didn’t have any concussion symptoms, and ironically, when I told him he wasn’t going to get to see the fish, that was the only other time he cried that afternoon.
What struck me the most, from my impromptu afternoon with my son, other than the fact that McGyver would have been jealous of my bandana and frozen peas contraption, was how quickly he bounced back. He wasn’t just “okay” the rest of the day. He was his normal dare devil self, even doing “The Ba’dozer” once, where he walks around with his head down, looking at the floor and running into things. The kid just wasn’t going to let half a golf ball stuck to his forehead ruin his day. In fact, I wonder if his goal was just to show the bump a great time.
We all could use a little of him in us. That is presuming you aren’t csuram88, who doesn’t lose. For the rest of us, we are going to take one on the chin, or the metaphorical forehead, from time to time. If you made a mistake, sure, learn from it. Generally, though, it is just your turn on the variance coaster. The next week, the key is to trust the process: the buy-in, the game mix, and the player evaluation. You didn’t come to them by accident.
- If Jimmy Graham and you had the same amount of points in your line-up last week, play another game of Over-The-Ottoman-and-Onto-The-Pillows, anyway.
- If Andre Ellington pointing at his hip, then going full Keyser Soze hurt you, don’t let that stop you from showing off how many somersaults you can do.
- If you thought you were starting Tony Romo against the Eagles and instead he played against the ’85 Bears, for heaven’s sake, keep doing the Ba’dozer!
Start your DraftKings line-up with the high priced studs, just like you have in the past. Then, scoop up a little Fantasy Grout, just to hold it together. And watch your step. It’s slippery out there!
Quarterbacks
Again this week, like the last couple, about half the league is over $6,500 and half is not. Last week, any of Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colt McCoy, or Shaun Hill would have done the trick, and certainly those >4 PT/$K QBs are lingering again. You just have to trust your process.
Shaun Hill at WAS, $5,500: This is my process: I get every player into a spreadsheet, including match-ups, injury notes, and any potential role changes. After that, I sort the list by fantasy points per game per $1,000 of salary. Then, I blindly recommend whoever is facing Washington. Simple as that.
I’m not suggesting you brag to the world that you’re starting Hill, until he goes off anyway, but the value is there. His weapons include Steadman Bailey, who has come on of late, to complement Britt and Givens. The tight ends have provided help between the 20s (Cook) and in the red zone (Kendricks/Harkey). Tre Mason has gotten fourteen targets over the last four games. Also, it seems they have finally figured out that getting Tavon Austin the ball, even around the line of scrimmage, is worth it. Did I mention they’re playing Washington? I did? Well, it’s true. You can feel free to tell the world that.
Left in the Bucket
Brian Hoyer v IND, $5,300: If you catch any mentions of money hand signals, rolled up dollar bills or Vegas, in general, you’ll know I had another quarterback here and had to make a last minute swap.
Running Backs
We will discuss tightendcalypse below, but the void next to “TE” on your roster shadows the fact that running back has been no garden of production either. There were 21 RB TDs last week, which seems fine. The problem comes in when you strip out the 11 touchdowns scored by the 15 backs this week who are above the Grout threshold. Of the ten remaining, four went to back-ups (Brandon Bolden, Roy Helu, Stepfan Taylor, and Robert Turbin), one went to a timeshare guy, (Boom Herron), and the remaining five were left to starters: Ryan Mathews, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, and Joique Bell.
All of this is to say that unless you find a guy with guaranteed goal line work in a high scoring game, chasing touchdowns is a fool’s errand. If you’re looking for Grout-level running back production, your best bet is to chase the 100 yard bonus and surefire pass game work.
Jonathan Stewart at NO, $3,800: Last week against the Vikings, despite getting blown out, he managed 110 total yards, 7.1 yards per rush, and, was good for a couple receptions, as always. Now, with his backfield mate, DeAngelo Williams, missing time with a hand injury, he could be in line for the Panther’s share of the Lion’s carries. Actually, reverse that. More importantly, if he takes that work and puts on a Show for his Daily Fantasy owners, it will make for such a beautiful play on words. Just gorgeous, really
Marion Grice v KC, $4,100: When you start someone whose name sounds like a Femaile-Only college in the Midwest, you know something is up. That something is Andre Ellington’s hip pointer, which coach Bruce Arians called “severe. He also said Grice was the next man up
The match-up with the Chiefs looks so-so on paper, until you note their recent regression, partially explained by the fact that they are without their Pro Bowl running-stuffing safety, Eric Berry. They have ceded at least 110 rush yards to a back, three straight weeks, and over the last two weeks, RBs have scored Grice, er, thrice. Sorry, Freudian Slip.
Pierre Thomas v CAR, $4,000: I’ll say this about Thomas: When he’s in the game, he gets the ball. Last week, on 15 offensive snaps, he had three rushes and four targets. The week prior, on 39 snaps, it was eight targets and five carries. The big key is the snap split between Thomas and Mark Ingram, which has been very game specific since Thomas returned from injury. I’m betting this is a game where Sean Peyton wants production and realizes that Thomas has a better yards-per-carry and yards-per-touch. {Insert a joke about “Pierre” being a French name here.}
Left in the Bucket
Joique Bell v TB, $5,500: I like to imagine that Joique is the sound it makes when you steal a running back’s job.
Ryan Mathews v NE, $4,700: I am close to giving him his second “t” back.
Roy Helu Jr. v STL, $4,000: A reception in every game he’s played, and two in all but one. Jimmy Graham can’t say that.
Wide Receivers
The number of wide receivers over $5,000 and the number of wide receivers who are productive continues to rise. Avoiding the ever more barren Grout wide receiver space is not an option though, as expensive running backs force our hand. As you go back to the basics, remember these truths. You can’t catch a pass not thrown to you, and a pass can’t be thrown to you when you’re on the sidelines. Let’s go find some volume.
Charles Johnson v NYJ, $4,300: Can we talk about Johnson’s hair? I’m all for individuality, but if the blonde, curly, fluff fro that Johnson’s working is a statement, it is spoken in a language I don’t understand. His team-leading 98% of the offensive snaps? Now, you’re speaking my language. His Viking-best 14 targets over the last two weeks is also a dialect I know. As to his 2-for-41 last week, I just throw it out, as two offensive possessions were cannibalized by blocked punts for TDs. Now that I think of it, it’s the exact hair I expect a cannibal to have.
Reggie Wayne at CLE, $4,800: Donte Moncrief, Donte Schmancrief. Anyone can score with Andrew Luck at the helm; the guy spreads the wealth more than Communism. I know I’m not getting all the pass production with any offensive player, but just a piece of such a hearty pie will due. He led the Colts WRs in offensive snaps last week and five is his target floor for the year. Moreover, in this game, Wayne should be see extra volume, assuming Haden shadows Hilton, leading to an H&H Bagel. Giddy Up.
Cecil Shorts III v HOU, $3,900: It’s basically a Jaguar WR Pick ‘Em Game this week, as all three are priced back-to-back-to-back. I’ve got the high volume, high snap guy, in a full PPR. More importantly, we need to talk about this proliferation of Jrs. and Srs. and IIIs. Five thoughts.
1) When Ben Tate went from Cleveland to Minnesota, he just picked up a “III”. Did he just meet his dad?
2) Steve Smith Sr. just took on a “Sr.” this year, as well. If his son legally changes his name to Elmer or something, would Smith be legally obligated to remove the “Sr.”?
3) If you were a “III”, wouldn’t you leave it off the name portion of your jersey and just wear the number “3” instead?
4) Along the same lines, if you were a junior, would it be cooler to be the number “2” or the number “11”?
5) You don’t see many “the Fourths” or beyond, but there’s potential with “the Fifth” and the roman numeral “V”. If your surname is “Side”, you have an obligation to name your son “Justin” and require the next four generations after him to have the same name, just for the dirty play on words, 125 years later.
Left in the Bucket
Rueben Randle at TEN, $4,300: I’m paying for the whole game, so hopefully, he play it all this week.
Andre Roberts v STL, $3,200: Like DJax only cheaper and not injured
Tavon Austin at WAS, $3,300: Speed, man. If he gets over 5.5 touches, the TD bomb is armed…
Tight Ends
If you have a bump on your forehead, it may be metaphorical, from the beating you took in DFS last week, or it may be literal, from actually smashing your head into a wall over whichever tight end you paid for that flopped. Where is bashing tight ends getting us though? The NFL still has them. So does DraftKings. It is Back At It this week, unfortunately.
Let’s do a little analysis of the position last week, so as to inform our decision-making, or at least to adjust our expectations, going forward. Six tight ends had over 12 points last week, across 32 two teams, plus 12 & 22 personnel, etc. Six. When you look at value, it is even worse. Four guys were over 4.0 PT/$K: Jordan Reed (7.594), Coby Fleener (6.745), Martellus Bennett (5.475), and Heath Miller (4.263). Of them, only Fleener was too pricy to be Grout. After that quartet, there were 15 more TEs between 2.2 and 4.0 PT/$K. Here’s how they broke down, salary-wise:
2 – High Priced (>$3,400)
3 – Mid Priced ($3,100 – $3,400)
10 – Min Priced ($3,000)
If you’d like to continue to fish in the $4,000+ waters for tight end, you might catch a Fleener Fish ($4,700) or a Large-Mouth Bennett ($4,000), but just know those waters are filled with many species of Bustys (Gronkowski, Olsen, Kelce, Witten, Walker, and Graham).
Mychal Rivera v SF, $3,300: Me? I’m fishing under the fantasy dock for Black-and-Silver Gills. Given the target load, Rivera is one of the few tight ends that can return 3 PT/$K without a touchdown. With 7.5 targets/game over his last six, he is the embodiment of a Tony Sparano offense, which can only be used as a positive if you are referring to the tight end position.
Left in the Bucket
Kyle Rudolph v NYJ, $3,300: If you are going to fish for a touchdown, doing so with the tallest pole helps.
Grout for a Shout
This is one of those classic tests to see if you are a glass-is-half-full or glass-is-half-full person. The pessimist in me would say “Come on Oil, you pride yourself on your ability to write, yet you can’t even explain a simple competition adequately? You had four people enter an entire Grout team while three entered a player too expensive to qualify as Grout (albeit, knowingly, in one case). Leave your shades in the case; the future isn’t looking so bright for your writing career.”
The optimist in me: “Well, because you were slightly ambiguous, you received a gigantic data dump of Grout players to compete with, and you, Giant Ball, still out-did them all! That is right, you won your own Grout for a Shout contest by selecting Tre Mason, who went for 8.783 PT/$K. You might have something here.”
Kermit the Frog, ignoring the volume in his cup completely, would say
Kermit, you’re right. I’m giving this one to you, Sethmt12. I’ll ignore the fact that he was one of the people that picked a team, including wide receiver and tight end picks of Martavis Bryant and Tim Wright. You, Sethmt12 nailed Mason AND McCoy and deserve your props.
Now this week. Please pick one player, TOTAL, choosing from any of the following four positions and salary restrictions, and post that one player in the comments below. The best value gets their shout out next week. Good luck!
$6,500 or Less – QB / $5,500 or Less – RB / $5,000 or Less – WR / $4,500 or Less – TE