Fantasy PGA Preview: The Open Championship

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2014-07-16 22:29:07

Greetings Grinders! Welcome to my first PGA post here on Rotogrinders! I’ve done many a video show with our esteemed colleague Gibbathy, and I’m pinch hitting for him this week with some picks and projections for The Open Championship. Hopefully my picks can hold their weight and be just as successful as Gibb’s usually are. With the All Star Break to rest up from MLB DFS, I’ve had plenty of time to research and hopefully formulate some solid picks. Let’s get down to business!

With DraftStreet closing their doors and combining forces with DraftKings, I’ll focus these picks on DraftKings. They are running some awesome freerolls this week and also some big tournaments. The Royal Golf Championship has a $200 entry fee and a $100,000 first place prize, so get in while you still can. If you’re not yet a member of DraftKings, feel free to sign up through our Rotogrinders links to get the best bonuses! Another word of caution – this tournament starts in the early morning hours Thursday/late night hours Wednesday (12:25 AM Eastern), so don’t miss the deadline with your rosters.

The Open Championship Preview

This tournament is one of a kind for several different reasons, namely the following:

LINKS STYLE COURSE

Links courses in Europe, where the Open Championships are contested, are completely different than American-style tracks. It’s why you generally see Europeans or Americans who have experience in Europe succeed in this tournament, while PGA-only players often tend to struggle. That’s a red flag for PGA-only guys who are having good seasons, and you should use caution with guys like Chris Kirk, Brandon De Jonge, Charley Hoffman, etc… DK has priced these guys generously for a reason.

WEATHER

It wouldn’t be an Open Championship without a discussion of the weather. Being on the wrong side of the draw can be a drain in this tournament. A rain or wind storm can kick up at any time and cause scoring to go haywire. Let’s say heavy wind and rain comes in late Thursday as the afternoon players are just teeing off. This will negatively impact the scoring of those guys that are just starting their rounds, and there’s nothing they can do about it. Weather plays a bigger factor here than any other major, though the forecast at this point looks relatively calm.

ROTATING COURSES

There is little to no course history to rely on here. The last time the Open Championship was contested at Royal Liverpool Golf Club (also known as Hoylake) was 2006, and it was a very dry summer that year. This led to extremely good scoring conditions, and Tiger Woods won at 18 under par. This summer has been different, the course is lush and wet, and scoring should be more difficult. For all intents and purposes, you can throw the 2006 history out the window. It’s best to target guys given their current form and their history on links courses in General.

The Open Championship is an ultimate test of grit and perseverance, and it will be a fun four days of golf as we look to see if Phil Mickelson can defend his title. One fun thing about DFS golf during a major is that every team looks awesome and you can make a case for a ton of players all the time. It’s still hard to make that awesome-looking team end up awesome at the end of the week, but let’s throw caution to the wind and move on to the picks!

GOLFERS

Henrik Stenson	$10,400
Adam Scott will be the odds on favorite for many, but for my money I like Stenson. He has the perfect combination of current form and fit for the course to get the job done this week. Nobody from Sweden has ever won a major, but this is the perfect time. Stenson has finished in the top seven in five of his last six starts, and has three top-three finishes in his career at the Open Championship (2nd place last year). He’s also a very poised golfer that lets very little rattle him. Being paired with Tiger Woods doesn’t concern me at all. I expect the Swede to rise to the occasion and put up a big performance on the big stage.

Henrik Stenson flag_sweden

$10,400

Adam Scott will be the odds on favorite for many, but for my money I like Stenson. He has the perfect combination of current form and fit for the course to get the job done this week. Nobody from Sweden has ever won a major, but this is the perfect time. Stenson has finished in the top seven in five of his last six starts, and has three top-three finishes in his career at the Open Championship (2nd place last year). He’s also a very poised golfer that lets very little rattle him. Being paired with Tiger Woods doesn’t concern me at all. I expect the Swede to rise to the occasion and put up a big performance on the big stage.

Dustin Johnson	$9,400
If you’re looking for the ultimate safe pick with your high dollar guys, this one is probably not for you, but it’s growing on me. Dustin had a torrid start last year at The Open only to fade to a 32nd place finish with a poor weekend. His length off the tee gives him the ability to recover from mistakes, and on a Par 72 course with 4 Par 5’s, he should benefit tremendously as he makes hay on the long holes. Though he doesn’t on the surface appear to be a guy well-suited for links-style courses, he has held his own at this tournament in the past and makes a sneaky top-end play this week.

Dustin Johnson flag_usa

$9,400

If you’re looking for the ultimate safe pick with your high dollar guys, this one is probably not for you, but it’s growing on me. Dustin had a torrid start last year at The Open only to fade to a 32nd place finish with a poor weekend. His length off the tee gives him the ability to recover from mistakes, and on a Par 72 course with 4 Par 5’s, he should benefit tremendously as he makes hay on the long holes. Though he doesn’t on the surface appear to be a guy well-suited for links-style courses, he has held his own at this tournament in the past and makes a sneaky top-end play this week.

Ernie Els	$7,700
Els is the perfect example of a golfer where you can throw his current PGA Tour results out the window. He’s seemingly playing more and more events in Europe these days, and he’s entirely comfortable with a links course. His impeccable Open Championship record attests to this fact in a big way, as he has made the cut in 20 of 23 appearances, and 13 of those 20 have resulted in top ten finishes. Granted, he’s getting up there in age, but five of those top tens have come over the last nine years. It seems like he always saves his best performances for this spot, and I really like him at this friendly price tag here.

Ernie Els

$7,700

Els is the perfect example of a golfer where you can throw his current PGA Tour results out the window. He’s seemingly playing more and more events in Europe these days, and he’s entirely comfortable with a links course. His impeccable Open Championship record attests to this fact in a big way, as he has made the cut in 20 of 23 appearances, and 13 of those 20 have resulted in top ten finishes. Granted, he’s getting up there in age, but five of those top tens have come over the last nine years. It seems like he always saves his best performances for this spot, and I really like him at this friendly price tag here.

Brandt Snedeker	$8,800
Here’s my under-the-radar pick for the week. Snedeker really struggled to start 2014, but he has been picking it up of late thanks to work with the putter, and he’s now hired a new swing coach in Butch Harmon. The timing is very odd for this hire, but in any event I like what I see from Snedeker right now. He’s logged three straight finishes of 21st or better and has survived nine of the last ten cuts, including a 9th place finish at the U.S. Open. If he can keep the short game in good form, he’s a dark horse for a victory at Royal Liverpool. He finished 11th last year despite a terrible round on Friday, and putting together four solid rounds could be in the cards this time around.

Brandt Snedeker flag_usa

$8,800

Here’s my under-the-radar pick for the week. Snedeker really struggled to start 2014, but he has been picking it up of late thanks to work with the putter, and he’s now hired a new swing coach in Butch Harmon. The timing is very odd for this hire, but in any event I like what I see from Snedeker right now. He’s logged three straight finishes of 21st or better and has survived nine of the last ten cuts, including a 9th place finish at the U.S. Open. If he can keep the short game in good form, he’s a dark horse for a victory at Royal Liverpool. He finished 11th last year despite a terrible round on Friday, and putting together four solid rounds could be in the cards this time around.

Francesco Molinari	$5,800
Molinari represents my favorite play of the week. There are a few errors in the pricing over at DrafKings, but none of them are more egregious than Molinari. He’s made the cut in each of his last four appearances in major tournaments, including a 9th place finish at the Open Championship in Muirfield last year. He’s known for his ball-striking ability, which will play well if the weather turns bad, and he’s a super talented golfer. For this near-minimum price tag, he’s almost a must-roster in the DK format here. Play the fade at your own risk, as I expect him to be one of the highest owned golfers of the week.

Francesco Molinari flag_italy

$5,800

Molinari represents my favorite play of the week. There are a few errors in the pricing over at DrafKings, but none of them are more egregious than Molinari. He’s made the cut in each of his last four appearances in major tournaments, including a 9th place finish at the Open Championship in Muirfield last year. He’s known for his ball-striking ability, which will play well if the weather turns bad, and he’s a super talented golfer. For this near-minimum price tag, he’s almost a must-roster in the DK format here. Play the fade at your own risk, as I expect him to be one of the highest owned golfers of the week.