FantasyDraft NFL Expert Survey: Week 10
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s main slate contests.
Week 10 – Main Slate
Who is your favorite player for cash games?
Who is your favorite player for tournaments?
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Which high-priced player will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have little to no exposure to?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have heavy exposure to?
Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense?
Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?
Davis Mattek: CIN
Which NFL team are you looking to avoid most?
Davis Mattek: BUF
What’s the best position to spend up on this week?
Davis Mattek: RB
What’s the best position to save salary on this week?
Davis Mattek: WR
Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week?
Davis Mattek: JAC/IND
Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?
Davis Mattek: RB
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: Coming out of the bye, the Titans said that they were going to get Dion Lewis more involved. That was certainly the case on Monday night against the Cowboys. He played 84% of the snaps, received 19 carries, and saw four targets. He now gets to face his former team (Patriots) at home in a game where they could be trailing.
STLCardinals84: A.J. Green is not going to play for the Bengals this week. If we take him out of the mix, Tyler Boyd has more than double the targets of any other active player on the roster. He is at 49 catches and 66 targets, while the next closest in catches and targets is Joe Mixon at 19 and 28, respectively. Boyd could seriously push for 15 targets in this game, especially if the Bengals fall behind. Fire him up.
MrTuttle: Per Football Outsiders, the Packers defensive line has the fourth highest adjusted sack rate (9%).
meansy53: The New Orleans Saints have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. How will Andy Dalton fare without his top wide receiver?
Stevietpfl: Jarvis Landry is second in the NFL in targets and fifth in target share. His 48.4% red zone target share leads the NFL this season.
Davis Mattek: Corey Davis is top-5 in the league in every metric that measures volume compared to the rest of the offense. While he was not able to get it done last week against the Cowboys even though the Titans scored 28 points, his involvement in this offense overall would suggest that if Mariota is indeed healthy again, Davis is one of the most underpriced players in the entire slate.
What’s your hot take of the week?
STLCardinals84: The Titans upset the Patriots at home in what is a classic letdown spot for New England.
MrTuttle: Packers score five touchdowns and all are accounted for by their defense and running backs.
meansy53: Facing the Jaguars, Andrew Luck finishes the week as the top scoring fantasy quarterback.
Stevietpfl: Duke Johnson goes for 100+ total yards and 20+ fantasy points
Davis Mattek: Marquez-Valdez Scantling takes advantage of Xavien Howard on Davante Adams and sees his season high in targets, yards and scores a touchdown.
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
Notorious: Marcus Mariota & Dion Lewis – This is one of the cheapest QB/RB combos available this week. They are playing at home against a shreddable defense of the Patriots. Mariota had ten rushes last week against the Cowboys (many of them were designed runs) and as mentioned above, Lewis was the clear workhorse in the backfield. Playing these two together will allow you to capture most of the touchdowns scored for Tennessee and the two are somewhat correlated with Lewis being so involved in the passing game.
STLCardinals84: NO/CIN Stacks – This game has shootout potential, and the good news is that we generally know where the production will come from with these teams. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara accounted for a huge percentage of the New Orleans yardage in last week’s win over the Rams, while I have already discussed how Boyd is going to be a huge part of Cincinnati’s offense. Mixon will continue to lead the ground game even with Bernard coming back. This is the most stackable game of the week.
MrTuttle: Aaron Jones / Packers DST – Even prior to Ty Montgomery leaving town, Jones has gradually seen his role in the Packers offense increase the past couple of weeks, playing on 75-of-126 snaps the Packers last two games and averaging 15 touches per game over that span. With the Packers 10-point favorites and expected to be in control of this game, Jones should see his highest touch total of the season against the Dolphins defense that has been below average against the run this season. Oh, and Brock Osweiler playing from behind on the road behind an offensive line that PFF grades fourth worst in pass blocking…enough said.
meansy53: Andy Dalton & Tyler Boyd – It will be interesting to see how Boyd adjusts to being a #1, but I would be betting on the volume here regardless of how you think the efficiency goes. With A.J. Green sidelined, Dalton almost has no choice but to lock on to Boyd as his safety valve. Even in Week 8 with Green playing, Boyd still had 31% of the target share. Against one of the worst defenses in the league and what I’d have to think are going to be double-digit targets for Boyd, I love the chances for these guys to connect on at least one score.
Stevietpfl: ATL/CLE – I’m going to have a lot of exposure to this game, and will be stacking it a lot of different ways. Cleveland’s already bad defense got worse last weekend when they lost three more players to injury. Atlanta is the worst team in the league against pass-catching backs, so my favorite stack here will be Ryan, Coleman, Duke Johnson.
Davis Mattek: Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton – While I do not think in and of themselves, they are purely optimal plays, I think that their combination of ceiling and ownership makes them incredibly interesting. Both will be core tournament plays for me this week. Jalen Ramsey is down to PFF’s #45 graded corner after being in the top 5 last year, and Hilton has very believable home/road splits due to the artificial turf at Lucas Oil Stadium. Luck is among the league leaders in pass attempts per game and if the Jags can score, the ceiling on Hilton is over 30 fantasy points.
Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Dion Lewis – For all of the reasons mentioned in my other answers, Lewis is my favorite point-per-dollar play on the board. He has taken over the Titans’ backfield and he gets a crack at revenge, as he’ll face his former team for the first time in his career.
STLCardinals84: It’s tough to go with anyone other than Todd Gurley at the top in cash games, but I’m fully invested in Tyler Boyd this week. The game flow should be right for Cincinnati to be throwing, and they simply have no other reliable targets with A.J. Green on the shelf. On a points per dollar basis, Boyd is my guy in Week 10.
MrTuttle: Dion Lewis – Lewis has all but taken over the Titans backfield as Tennessee slowly kills off Derrick Henry who has only been on the field for 38-of-141 offensive snaps for the Titans their last two games. Lewis’ involvement as a pass catcher gives him a solid floor to work with and increased involvement running the ball provides him with a high ceiling as well. Lewis remains too cheap for his new role.
meansy53: Melvin Gordon – Gordon makes for a nice tournament pivot off of Todd Gurley. For starters, the Raiders are the second-worst defense in the league according to Football Outsiders DVOA. That is a large part as to why the Chargers have a 30 point team total. And Gordon himself checks all the boxes we are looking for out of a bellcow running back: game flow independent, 20+ touches, pass game involvement, goal line work, etc. He is in a phenomenal spot this weekend.
Stevietpfl: Kareem Hunt – The Chiefs are 16.5 home favorites against Arizona this weekend, and despite being a top-ranked DVOA run defense, the Cardinals are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. They’ve allowed over 88 rushing yards in every game this season, and at least 114 rushing yards in six of eight games. They’ve also allowed at least one rushing touchdown in six of eight games this season. With the discount from Gurley to Hunt, I really like the high floor for Hunt this weekend. I still like Gurley this week.
Davis Mattek: The correct answer is Todd Gurley. While Gurley is still valuable in game scripts where the Rams are trailing and have to throw, his real value comes in scoring touchdowns. The Rams are gigantic favorites in this game and the Seahawks are a real caveman team. While the total number of plays and possessions in this game will be lowered, Gurley has greater odds of scoring on the ground due to the fact that the Rams project for more running plays this week.
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